Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Americas 202407

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Americas 20240713

World. Our bloomberg voices are on the ground with this mornings top stories. We want to start in hong kong, where the chaos continues. Police and protesters clashed again after violent weekend standups. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman reiterated beijings support for the police force, calling the protesters extremely violent criminals. Precedent, you can see what is happening in hong kong right now is not a peaceful demonstration. It has turned into a violent protest against ordinary people led by a small group of extreme violent criminals. Alix joining me from hong kong is karen leigh. Walk us through the significance of what happened over the weekend in terms of escalation at the university. Anotherong kong had week of chaos after a week that has paralyzed part of the city. Carrie lam and other officials are urging protesters at the university to surrender, even as activists are calling for more rallies near the campus to support these demonstrators cured police and protesters have clashed around the university for much of the day. It has legible people arrests and injuries. Dozens have tried to flee. There been battles. Better news for protesters, Hong Kongs High Court found the government controversial mask ban is unconstitutional. This delivers a fresh blow to the Carrie Lam Administration as they try to contain these increasingly violent demonstrations. All of these scenes is hong kong braces for another delay another day of destruction after it was brought to a halt for much of last week. Alix thank you very much for the reporting. We want to stay in asia. The peoples bank of china trimmed its shortterm policy rate for the First Time Since 2014 after the pboc warned the chinese economy was facing greater difficulties from the slower investment and sluggish Industrial Production. Joining me on the phone from hong kong is bloombergs chief agent economics correspondent. The significance of what happened over the weekend and the warning about the influence of Monetary Policy on the economy . There is no doubt it was another warning from the pboc that chinas economy continues to face downward pressure. We know some of that is domestic driven. We also know some of it is external. The slowing World Economy and the trade war with the u. S. Pboc used its Quarterly Report and the actions and the money market to single they are concerned but they are not panicking. They will pull a lever to ensure the economy keeps ticking over, that growth remains stable. They will not rush and roll out the stimulus we saw in previous downturn. There is no hint of cutting the benchmark rate or rolling out major stimulus beyond what theyve been talking about in recent months. That concernsis about Monetary Policy transmission, the system is working in china. Some concerns with pork price impact and the broader inflation, but theyre not hitting the panic button yet. Alix you get any sense that if there is a trade deal, even a phase one trade deal, it would help stabilize the economy, over these be structural issues irrespective of what is happening with trade . Enda is all of the above. Theres a view that a deal would boost the manufacturing sector. But there is also the view that these issues are domestic driven and china. Will not change because of the trade war. It could even embolden the hawks in the chinese government. Theres a view it would take a rolling back of all of the tariffs the u. S. Has imposed for there to be a material lift in chinas economy. I say it would be taken as a positive but not a game changer. Alix thank you appreciate that. We want to head to washington. Impeachment battle continues. Speaking on cbs face the nation, nancy pelosi says she is giving President Trump the case to make the chance to make his case to the intelligence committee. I want to make sure he does not intimidate the whistleblower. And before the committee speak all the truth he wants. You cannot expect them to do that . If he wants to take the oath of office. He could do that in writing. He has every opportunity to present his case. Alix joining us with more from the white house is kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. It was all the rage of the weekend and on snl. What will we find out this week . Kevin three days of testimony set to kick start tomorrow is the impeachment inquiry public phase begins week two. Tomorrow one of the Top National Security officials advising the administration on ukraine, who was on the call in july of this summer when President Trump spoke with ukraine president is set to testify publicly before the house intelligence committee. On wednesday, and key figure in all of this set to testify publicly. That is gordon sondland, he is the ambassador to the European Union who reportedly now, according to public and private testimony, spoke with President Trump for an update regarding where president zelinski was with regards to investigating possibly joe biden and his son hunter biden. All this comes as republican still sticking by the president. The president not at risk of losing key republican support. According to sources spoken with throughout the weekend, wednesday Gordon Sondlands testimony will be crucial. Very quickly, new political news. Louisiana democratic Governor John Bel Edwards won a second term, defeating republican challenger eddie wrist bone. Eddie rispone. This comes as the president made three trips to louisiana to campaign for republicans. Alix kevin cirilli, thank you very much. We do want to turn to one of the largest ipos in history. Saudi aramcos race to go public. Devaluation to 1. 6 trillion, one below the initial 2 trillion goal. Joining me on the phone is bloombergs Matthew Martin. What did we learn from the launch of the roadshow . Matthew the Company Kicked off the ipo yesterday with a meeting of investors in react. What is notable from the meeting is that the price range will top out around 1. 7 trillion, which if they reach that range would mean aramco should be the biggest ipo in history. Looking at the investors in the room yesterday, no surprise they are coming from saudi arabia. An international roadshow has been canceled. The focus will be entirely on raising money from saudi investors. The International Investors were very reluctant to invest in the company above a valuation of 1. 5 trillion. Now the books are open and local investors will be submitting their bids around two weeks from now. We should start to see where the final pricing is likely to come out. Alix bloombergs Matthew Martin joining us. Now we turn to sherlock up where lankaose early sri thee the it shows country remains deeply divided along ethnic lines. Joining me is bloomberg south asia government editor. Walk me through the significance of what happened over the weekend. What we have seen is a return to a government which is exploiting those racial and cultural divides you have talked about. He won the presidency when his brother was president , he was defense secretary. He oversaw the army, which brought an end to the brutal civil war, a three decade long civil war with separatist. Many in the Community Welcome to the end of that war, but the tactics the army used were he hascriticized and been accused of serious human rights violations. Accusations he brushes off and these things never happened. The voters are presented with a stark choice in that election. They went with the guy he was known for getting things done at any cost. Bullard,ombergs ruth thank you very much. We will rabbit out in london. Less than a month from the u. K. General election. Aking from the british Boris Johnson canceled 2020 tax cuts for businesses and spoke about brexit. One of the advantages of voting conservative in this election is we can and will get it done, and get it done in a matter of weeks. We have a deal that is ready to go. Just add hot water, stir in pop. It is there. What did we learn so far at cbi and how does that influence the election in less than a month . Leaders, two Party Current Prime Minister Boris Johnson and labors Jeremy Corbyn have been speaking at the cpi event, making their pitch to businesses. Johnsons conservatives, traditionally the party of tax s, have unveiled a a pause on a tax cut, which would keep 6 Million Pounds in government funds, which he says he wants to use for government spending, health care provisions. Jeremy corbyn has been trying to convince that business audience he is a friend of theirs and his policies, which include nationalization of key Public Utilities and broadband, will not harm business interest and could be good for britain in the long run. They have been making this competing arguments to the audience. Alix thank you very much. Stay tuned with bloomberg. We will hear from Jeremy Corbyn. We will have that exclusive interview within the next hour. And driving into profitability. Heres Something Else that caught my eye. Willceo says their new ev turn a profit on day one. Point with aprice package in the mid 30,000. It will be attractive to customers. It will make a contribution. Ford has fallen behind in the ev race, where carmakers are struggling making automobiles without turning a sustainable profit. One thing that will help ev adoption rates are more models. Lnc automotive says there will be 110 choices by 2025. At the same time, they see sales quadrupling in the u. S. How willing how much are you willing to pay . Carking the mustang muscle to gain a foothold in the eb race. Coming up, much more on your morning trades and analysis on the market. This is bloomberg. Alix time for the bloomberg first take. We will give you the news and the trade analysis and markets. ,oining me is Damian Sassower the vincent cignarella, former fx and rates trader, and joining us is ian harnett, absolute Strategy Research keep investment strategist. Happy monday. It was a lot of news over the weekend but the narrative stayed the same. I want to start with hong kong. Vincent, if you are trader, the narrative is it is starting to bleed into other markets. Do you see that . Vincent not just yet. Friends of mine on the ground tell me they are concerned the China Military may have to come in before the end of the year. Kowloon bay is shut down. The violence is getting worse and worse. , hehat were to be the case would certainly see it impact markets. You would certainly see it impact markets. We saw threemonth yield differentials between the u. S. And hong kong blowout. We saw the hong kong curve flattened sharply. Will seene way you default expectations get pulled forward ever so slightly, maybe from the fiveyear to the two year, the two your the one year. That is one thing traders are looking at. Hong kong has been are black swan for the next 12 months. You have a Global Manufacturing system based on china. The Global Financial system based on american dollars. Hong kong is where these things meet. It is the fulcrum that can explode to damage things good vincent if the militant to damage things. Vincent if the military needs to go in, getting a u. S. China trade deal at that point will be impossible. Either the deal gets done soon and then china can do what they need to do to control the situation in hong kong, or that goes and the deal is off the table. Ian that is the optimism there in the market. Situation, the trade deal gets off the table, then you get a big reversal on the equity market, not just the fx market. Damian it is rate differentials. If you look at the china yuan versus the u. S. Dollar, it tracks closely. We were at 30 basis points in january. Now we are at 130 basis points. That is a huge move, and the yuan has not play ball. It is undervalued or yields are high. Ian we will have to see adjustment in these markets coming through quickly. Alix what i continually get confused on his who has the leverage . The narrative is you have impeachment on all of that that will squeeze President Trump. Also the governor election in louisiana. The flipside, you also have the bbc over the weekend the pboc warning about growing growth and inflation. Who will win that . Vincent the scary part is both sides think they have the upper hand. [laughter] vincent neither one does. They both need to get something done quickly. The u. S. Plays hardball and then china backs off, and then china plays hardball and the u. S. Backs off. Someone needs to get between them at this point and say lets have a deal and get it going goo. Ian china has all the cards. President trump needs to get elected. President xi has a lifetime tenure. China has longer game to play. Our view is there may be a trade deal but it will be on chinas terms and chinas timing. Damian if you talk about that sevenday overnight repo rate cut, which is basically nothing. They cut rates than they showed we have a bigger warchest of tools to use, in the same breath, there released there thirdquarter Monetary Policy report and talk about not using as much because there are structural impediments to the cross cyclical in any event, it is funny because china can cut rates and sound hawkish and vice versa. Ian they are happy to deal ever. There are stresses in the system. They are worried about the debt level. They will not do a big easing. Do not hope that will be the drive in these markets. Vincent we do not know what that debt level is, only they do. Everybody looks to look at the situation and say china has three chili dollars in reserves. We do not know how much of that 3 trillion in reserves. We do not know how much that is already pledged to the debt. Alix that is the macro backdrop. How would you position . Vincent this week, to start the day . What looks good to meet his shortterm sterling. I would not get married to that trade. We will see a kneejerk reaction pop higher as the conservatives more likely than not take the helm. They will run into thick water between 1 30 and 133 and the realization that they have to do trade deals with the group they just left on shaky ground that the pound and British Assets may not be as attractive as they first seem to be. Damian from my perspective, and a world where you have negative yield and risk of recession, it is difficult to move down and credit quality reach for more yield. You want to lean into some of those dislocations and take a relative value perspective. One of the things we like, to your point, and you made the right point last week, comparing hong kong to places like italy, may be two a fiveyear cbf flatters might be a good way to play because if china does come in, you will see that curve flattened severely. Ian for us, ira muff rate we are saying for us, im afraid we are saying look at the optimism levels. Look at the sentiment on the vix, it is dragged down. We think volatility will kick back in. Vincent this is a good point. Alix great conversation. Did you see that damien called you vin . His mom is not going to like that. [laughter] alix bloombergs vincent sassower. , damian ian harnett of absolute Strategy Research will be sticking with me. Any charts we use rather show you can check out on gtv. This is bloomberg. You are viviana watching bloomberg daybreak. The board of hp unanimously rejected a takeover offer from xerox. The company says the bid is too low, plus it raise question about xeroxs prospects in the printing industry. Hp says it is open to a merger but says fundamental questions need to be answered. Spend 4. 4 billion dollars on its new factory in berlin according to a german newspaper. The paper says the first production line up the plant will fact will manufacture suvs companywide. It could roll off the Assembly Line as early as 2021. Chinese consumers are rediscovering their appetite for iphones. Bloomberg crunching the numbers and finding during september and october apple shifting 10 million iphones to china from a year earlier. That is a 6 increase. That confirms the iphone 11 is selling more strongly than its predecessor. That is her Bloomberg Business flash. Alix thanks so much. I still cannot got my new iphone. I have an ipo i have an iphone five. With apple posting a record high. One of the stocks leading toward the dow getting to 28,000. How do you think about those things . Ian look at the concentration of this market. That is one of the things we want to concentrate on. Apple, microsoft have been leading the market. I still worry that when we look at the tech stocks, they are not consumer stocks. They are also advertising stocks good what we found in 2000 with the tech bubble is we did not think the tech stocks were cyclical. Their end buyers work. That is the thing that worries us. If Economic Growth is slowing, if earnings are coming down and cash flow starts to get hit, the consumer side, perhaps the apple side will hold of will hold up. These are luxury goods, remember. The Software Stocks will come under pressure because the advertising will be under pressure at that point. Inx do like other areas tech . Ian i think it will be the apples that hold up relatively well compared to the advertising based stocks. But ie tech on a neutral, think there is a risk if the markets come down there will be a role for the tech stops to play. Alix ian harnett of absolute research will be sticking with me. Ipoi aramco setting its well below the initial to trillion dollar goal. Our next guest says money raised is relevant. Ellen wald tells

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