Particular pressure early in the session, but paring some of those losses, down by about 0. 3 right now. We had seen the pound gaining on the back of those polls i mentioned in the headline, but that seems to be shortlived. Now we see a fairly flat pound. 1. 2916 is where we trade on the u. K. Currency right now. Lets check out a bloomberg first word news update. Heres leighann gerrans. Ighann beijing told the u. S. Ambassador to quit meddling in hong kong affairs. The chinese also warned the bill could affect cooperation in important areas. The u. S. And china are in the midst of negotiating a trade deal. The white house is pushing to wrap up negotiations on a new trade deal with mexico and canada. The agreement known as usmca has become President Trumps top legislative priority. The administration and House Democrats have been locked in talks for months to secure a vote before the end of this year. Democrats want more enforcement of labor issues. Both mexico and canada say there has been progress. This may be a new test for President Trump over north korea. Kim jonguns regime appears to have fired off two short range Ballistic Missiles today. Has threatenedim to break off Nuclear Talks with the u. S. , demanding that President Trump these up on sanctions by the end of this year. The president has sleep ignored the recent short range missile tests. It is the most anticipated poll of the British Election campaign, and it is protecting that Boris Johnsons conservative party will win its biggest majority in more than three decades. The conservatives will win a majority of 68 seats in the december 12 election. The poll uses meeks that closely predicted the 2017 election outcome uses techniques that closely predicted the 2017 election outcome. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im leighann gerrans. This is bloomberg. Anna thank you very much. More on that story, the poster Yougov Finance and the results of its highly anticipated poll. If the election were held tomorrow, yougov protecting the best performance for the tories since 1987. Lets bring into the conversation simon fraser, former undersecretary at the commerce office, and now managing partner at flint Global Business advisory firm. Also at chatham house. Great to see you. Very good to get your thoughts as we see this new polling information coming through from yougov. It matters, doesnt it, how big a tory majority we see in the selection, if that is where the election ends up . Simon first of all, the poll is interesting. It gives the conservatives a significant 11 point lead. However, there are many unpredictable factors in the selection at the local level. Lets not take it absolutely as gospel truth, but it seems to indicate conservative lead. If that is the case, the question will be, how big is that lead going to be, and what can Boris Johnson do with it . Anna there seems to be uncertainty attached to some of the areas yougov has seen swing to the tories, but one of the interesting developments is the redwall in the north, where many seemr constituencies to be vulnerable to falling to the tories in a way you wouldnt have thought possible since the industrial decline legacy that we have seen over recent decades. A shift in voting habits do you think we are seeing in the u. K. . Simon it will be interesting because conservatives need to take seats out of the labour heartland in the north. Be makingto inroads there. Labour has apparently shifted their campaigning strategy to refocus their message on brexit in that area in particular because those areas where heavily probrexit areas, and the labour party seems to be less clearly probrexit than the conservatives. That is cutting across these traditional prolabor loyalties. Anna if we do see conservatives winning on december 12, the size of any majority will matter in terms of the brexit story. The British National audience trying to determine what this means for the brexit narrative. If the leader has a strong majority, they get to shape brexit in a certain direction rather than being pushed and pulled by certain groups. Simon remember, theresa may and Boris Johnson were both unable to get deals through parliament because they didnt have a majority. If Boris Johnson has a clear majority, the first thing hes got to do is pass legislation to get his withdrawal deal through so that we can legally leave the eu at the end of january. But then also, the scale of his majority will depend will influence his freedom of maneuver in future negotiations about the relationship between the u. K. And the eu, which is what happens once weve left. Although he said this is all about getting brexit done, what he means is getting the first bit of brexit done, i. E. Leaving. There is still negotiation about the future to be had. And thats the politics thats been going into this, of course. What about the tory mps that could be elected this time around . Theyve all said they will back him in this withdrawal agreement, but we dont necessarily all will go down a no deal path. That could be something that markets will ask questions about. Simon i think probably, he will have managed to unite the party more around brexit. He is planning quite a hard brexit in terms of the economic relationship between the u. K. And the eu. In other words, hes coming out of the customs union, coming out of postalignment with europe, and have a sort of third country free trade arrangement. That is quite a hard brexit. I think you will have support in his party for that. Of course, when he gets the reality of that negotiation, he might find it harder to do than he thinks. If he has a significant majority, he may actually have room to flex his position to a more moderate stance it he wants to going forward. Anna how should we interpret it when he says he will not extend the middle of next year . He can try, but he says he wont do it. How should we view that statement in this stage of the campaign . Simon we have a transition period after weve left until the end of next year. I dont think they will be able to do a complete negotiation in one year, but Boris Johnson has said he is not going to extend that. I think if hes got a significant majority and when he realizes the complexity of the negotiation, he may find a way of extending it further. He certainly wont say that for now, the. Anna let me get your thoughts on the u. S. U. K. Trade deal. The labour party seems to be tying this in with the brexit process, and yet it is something that remains very far into the future, doesnt it . If we are going to be focused on euu. K. Negotiations, it is going to be hard to have all of these managed at the same time. Simon the first thing will be the euu. K. Relationship and sorting that out, but they have said they want in parallel to address the u. S. Negotiation. As weve seen, there are dossiers which have revealed discussions have taken place. This is highly politicized because there are very sensitive issues around the future of the National Health service, food standards, drug pricing, which are being brought into the debate as political elements by labour. Anna is it anymore at this point of the u. S. Asking for access to u. K. Health markets, or is it that the u. K. Inroads intos made the nhs being involved . Simon both parties have to be in agreement on what actually is in scope, and that has not yet happened. This is partly electoral politics. Anna and looking ahead to the nato meeting next week, that means President Trump will be here during the election campaign. I was looking at some yougov data that suggests 67 percent negative opinion of President Trump in the u. K. If he decides to wade into the domestic issues around the election, that would be of interest. Still. D move things simon itsimon is interesting that President Trump is coming here, and there hasnt been a lot of focus on it yet. It is always controversial. Dedber, he has already wa into the u. K. Election once, and there is a risk that could happen again. That would be very controversial again, no doubt. Anna simon, thank you very much. Simon fraser, from Flint Partners and formally at the foreign office. Very interesting polling data overnight. Ets coming up on the program, a threat of retaliation from china as President Trump signs a bill backing hong kong protesters. What it means for trade and the outlook for markets. That conversation is next. This is bloomberg. This welcome back to special edition of bloomberg market. President trump has signed a bill in support of democracy hong kong protesters. Trump released a statement, saying the bills are being enacted in the hope that leaders and representatives in china and hong kong will be able to amicably settle their differences, leading to longterm peace and prosperity for all. China threatened retaliation over the passage of the bill just as the two nations get close to signing a phase one trade deal. Bloombergs International Executive editor going this now with analysis. This latest development over hong kong, i suppose, threatening to derail trade talks. Thats the fear that the market has. Reporter thats right. You can see from the language from the white house that donald trump wasnt particularly excited to sign this bill into law, but he much, given the weight of Opinion Congress has on hong kong right now. It is clear neither he nor the chinese want to have this drug much into the trade war. We saw some comments from a staterun newspaper saying that one retaliation might be to put people who drafted the law on a no entry list to hong kong and china, but there is a but that is a fairly middling kind of response. It is very clear from that in the fast that weve had nothing also far from china that they really want to try to get this out of the trade war conversation. Anna President Trump also talking very favorable tones about the chinese leadership whilst he was doing it, trying to not make it about them, i suppose. Also reflects the fact that the administration doesnt particularly want to get involved in what they fear is Domestic Affairs in many countries, unlike the previous administration, where they would comment on things like human rights in china and so on. Trump clearly does not want to get involved in that. He says quite often that he feels that hong kong is a situation to handle carefully. He has set out a different store for his Foreign Policy in general that reflex that and the desire to keep it away from the trade conversation. Anna and where on me on trade at the moment . Clearly we didnt get a phase one deal for thanksgiving. Maybe we get one for christmas. What is the talk at the moment as to when and where this could get signed, and when we see this phase i transpire . Rosalind it is very unclear, but they are still talking, and that is better than nothing. There are conversations going on at a very high level with the chief negotiators. Theres incentive for donald trump to get this deal done before they get too much further into the electoral cycle in the new year. You can see from the most Economic Data out of china that beijing wants to wrap it up before the end of the year because they are starting to really feel it with their domestic economy. Anna the industrial profit data this week stood out, didnt it . Thank you so much. Rosalind matheson joining us on the trade tension. For more, we are joined by Chris Watling come along view economics ceo and chief Market Strategist. What matters here, i suppose, is whether this influences the phase one trade ill. What downside is there for markets if we dont see that soon . Chris theres certainly a bit of a wobble in markets, like we saw in may when trump pushed back on trade negotiations, but i dont think it is a central issue anymore. There is so much liquidity in markets that this is no longer central. It is interesting the last few weeks. It is not that bothered by trade headlines. Anna we sort of ebb and flow with the trade headlines. Chris but not that much. It is not that big, really. I think the market also knows that trump doesnt want to get involved in this. He has some plea following through with what has passed through congress. Liquidity is very good. Theres a lot of liquidity going into markets, the nonqe qe. Anna so is it your assessment that would have been pushing us up to new alltime highs has not been on trade . Chris i think thats really important. We have basically digested a bit of gains in the first half of november. You didnt see it in the s p. Now we are sort of setting ourselves up for that move higher. It is like steps. You go flat and then up, and then flat, so on. I think the market is in great shape. The Global Economy is turning up. Building permits breaking out above the twoyear range, which tells me u. S. Housing is starting to reaccelerate. That will underpin the human the u. S. Economy into 2020. Anna what sort of green shoots do you see for stabilization in manufacturing and retail, for example . We saw a decent jump based on the gdp data yesterday, but also based on durable goods numbers. We started to raise the prospects of a new capex cycle in the u. S. How optimistic are you at the moment . Chris i feel great about the u. S. We had d stocking and slowing housing because of yields last year. The stimulus has come back in from the fed, so youve got all of the preconditions, and you are starting to see it come through in the data. So i think it looks good. The economy has got momentum. I think it looks interesting for 2020. Chris could the tariff story anna could the tariff story still knock us off course for the end of the year . Thehe bloomberg terminal, middecember forecast looks cloudy with a chance of tariffs. That references the middecember possibility that we get an increase in tariffs rather than a rollback in phase one. Chris we might do, but we know what both sides really want to do a deal. Who knows whats going to happen . But from both sides perspec tive, it helps if a deal is done. The economy is under pressure. It is not performing so well. Game theory would said to me, are they going to push those tariffs back and keep negotiation . Anna if trump thinks he is going to do well in 2120, does that give him incentive in 2020, does that give him incentive to go in for more . Politically, you mean draghi get on into 2020 . You mean dragging it on into 2020 . You want to get your momentum going, and you want to get your economic moment of going in the stock market momentum going. No deliberate fault of his, really, or maybe some, i think it is lining up nicely for 2020. The economy is reaccelerating. Everyone is offside on this stock market, and they need to get back end, so that should help drive momentum. And the fed has done what they wanted him to do, or a lot of it. Has done what he wanted them to do, or a lot of it. Anna chris, thanks very much. Chris watling stays with us on the program. Coming up, opec says the oil market will be balanced in 2020 if it maintains current production levels. More on what that means for next weeks vienna meeting. We look at the latest on the oil sector. This is bloomberg. Leighann this is a special edition of Bloomberg Markets. Amazon expects a strong fourthquarter. The Worlds Largest on done Largest Online retailer has hired temporary workers to get product into warehouses, pack boxes, and even make deliveries. The retail section of aramcos ipo was fully covered, with just one day to go. The lead manager says they bought 8. 7 billion of shares. Most transactions were made online and at bank branches. Since investors are keen the aramco ipo became largely regional. Anna a balanced oil market in 2020 . Opec thinks it is possible. The cartel says if it maintains current production levels, the dynamic will even out. That is the latest signal the group will stick with their output cuts at their meeting due to take place in vienna next week. With me is bloombergs, reordering, aim bloombergs Annmarie Hordern, a keen watcher of the oil markets. And is it that the opec their friends are saying . Annmarie basically, the demand next year is going to be offset in 2020. Many people thought they were going to cut. On top of that, we have two other things to watch out for today. Our bloomberg survey, only one in 35 think they would cut. All of these Oil Companies want to stay the course to march of next year. Basically, it really is looking like opec is going to hold the line and rollover these cuts. Opec , thet is others involved as well. So where does that take us into 2020, when weve got concerns about Global Growth perhaps, or may be bottoming out with the Global Growth story . Talk us through what happens on supply. Annmarie many say we will have an oversupply at the start of 2020. Ubs has said this. The question is how bad it will be for oil prices, and how far they fall. If they fall far enough, does this mean that opec is to hold some emergency meeting and step into the market . That is the big question. Many people say if they do not cut, they are going to be facing really difficult prices at the start of next year. Anna thank you very much. Just a quick check of the price is right now, down around 0. 4 57. 87. 87 brent under pressure, too. Just down a fraction of 1 on equity markets. The big story is around hong kong tensions. President trump signing that hong kong bill into law. How much is that going to disrupt the trade negotiation . That is something the markets are watching. Q market is not selling off a great deal on this thanksgiving holiday. Still ahead on the program, the outlook for europe growth concerns lingering as the ecb weighs its inflation target. On that next. This is bloomberg. This is a special edition of