Up a percentage point. We will get their earnings after the bell. Ie also finished higher chewy also finished higher. Scarlet volume was pretty light, 12 below the average. Part, market breadth was fairly negative as well. Of negative to positive. Lets dive deeper into the action with our markets reporters across the different asset classes. Abigail i would like to bring bonds into the equation. We are looking at here, in white, our treasury futures. Last six months or so, both are higher but sideways. Growth in stocks going higher at the same time. Since september, basically a downtrend for the 10 year eat treasury note. Downtrend, it could suggest that the recent choppy action we have had for stocks. This week, keep a close eye on this chart. I wanted to look at the volumes. Earlier this morning, we were looking at volume trading on the yetf, which tracks the entire index. Bond trading down 40 , relative isthe s p 500 index where it down less. Typically when the s p 500 etf, the spy, much more attractive during volatility. Single trading is much more attractive money relative basis when the Broader Market is calmer because you really can cherry pick. Today, volatilities going up a little bit. Falling in little bit as people can cherry pick some of that individual data. Reportbviously, the jobs little way expectations last week. A little softness today. The s p 500 still hanging near the record high. I want to look at what has been Morgan Stanley we did this out in a note this morning Consumer Discretionary stocks to the s p 500 remains well below the 200 day moving average. To mike wilson and his colleagues at Morgan Stanley, Downside Risk and growth remain a little bit higher than upside risk. Consumer discretionary, they think we are clearly in the late part of the economic cycle. Now starting to discount a little bit of a slow down ahead, and may be seeing a little more weakness in the economic data. Still with us at the desk, kristen bitterly. In the voice of Bloomberg News global macro, vince. We had a down day today, 0. 3, 0. 4 percent. Every 10 we have had a significant down day, we have seen it come back within a couple of days. Is the backdrop still favorable . Vince what we have been seeing in the past few weeks, when bad news comes up, markets go down, then it recovers nicely. The markets trading more positively on good news and less negatively on negative news. Positionare people right now . There has been talk of people still needing to play catch up. The rotation we saw starting in august may be catching people by surprise. Are there still a lot of discretionary investors out there . I think there are a lot of investors who have been underinvested this year. September was the one option where we saw positive flows into emerging markets equities. Significant cash on the sidelines. We did an analysis where it is about 12 trillion in household cash, 1 trillion in dry powder. It basically equals 60 of the market capitalization of the s p 500. If anything, that tells you from a technical standpoint that there is support in terms of buying the dips. Volatility,ee this our recommendation is to buy. Scarlet people on the sidelines, what are they waiting for . Kristen i think any of these minor pullbacks as well as trade. They have to reach a certain point to feel really come double comfortable but i think trade is the big overhang. We have seen a lot of put selling from investors, basically getting paid to wait for your ideal entry point. Volatility today, you could basically use that to your toantage, sell puts about 5 7 below what the market is trading. In this fixed income environment where people are trying to find yields and then you have people sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in, that is an ideal strategy to get paid to wait for your entry point. Romaine the putcall ratio is still pretty low. Well above the average we would have over the course of the year. Even if you factor in what we have seen in the fix and the index,vix and the skew it is hard to sort of find it. Vince volatility has been low all year. The much better strategy is the buy options. It make it a little tricky, we could see vol take up. Going into next year, it is probably the strategy that will pay again. Kristen it is one thing if you make the assumption that everyone is fully invested. Since, we have not seen those volumes with the exception of a few large transactions. Scarlet where is it most severe . Geographically. Kristen internationally, by far. Bias,ou look at the especially in the u. S. , there is such a home bias. Scarlet Christian Kristen bitterly, thank you so much. Vince, voice of the Bloomberg News squak. Aou can check it out on squ on your terminal. Romaine stitch fix moving higher in after hours trading. The company did report a loss but basically this was above what analysts were looking for. 440evenue coming in at million. The estimate was for 441. Ipo, whenther recent public back in september. The Company Moving a little bit lower. It does appear with some of the main metrics. It is giving some guidance with fullyear net sales coming in it 4. 8 b coming in at illion. A story we update to told you about earlier. Morgan stanley cutting jobs as part of an efficiency drive. They are now set to face a 150 million to 200 million charge with those job cuts. Morgan stanley to face up to 200 million in charges because of these job cuts of 1500 jobs. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is up next where we will be looking at the u. K. Election coming up in a few days. This is bloomberg. Live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, im romaine bostick. Here is a snapshot of how u. S. Stocks closed today. Nasdaq allp, and down marginally. Democrats in the white house finding common ground, closing in on a potential u. S. Congressional approval of the new north american trade deal. U. K. Voters prepare to lead to the polls, deciding the fate of Prime MinisterBoris Johnson and his plan to make good on brexit. Morgue Morgan Stanley eliminating 1500 jobs. Chargebe facing a hefty tied to those cuts. Cyin tral bankers vying with trade negotiators for attention this week. The Federal Reserve and ecb making their final monetary decisions of the year on wednesday and thursday. Signs that Global Growth is starting to stabilize. It will be the first meeting with Christine Lagarde since she became president of the ecb. Joining us, balch year, senior chear, senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy school. There are stories that things are stabilizing, maybe the cuts worked. Is it too early to declare that the gosar clear . Paul i think there is a shortterm story and longterm story. Shortterm, that ecb and the fed recalibrate their position to a somewhat less robust Global Economic outlook and risks around the trade war, etc. Longerterm, the fed is undertaking a strategic review. Lagarde at the ecb signaled she would be launching a review. The ecb has some problems on their plate in terms of not having ammunition, either Interest Rate ammunition or Balance Sheet ammunition. Scarlet that is something they dont talk about regularly during the news conference. They address the more concrete issues of, are you changing your forecast. The fan will be the fed will be releasing projections on thursday. Paul obviously, the fed, the focus will be on Economic Projections that come out every quarter. The question, what is the fomc itself signaling . I think most people think that probably next year, the median forecast of the fomc will be for rates to remain where they are, particularly in the election year. After that, looking for some gradual increases. Romaine a year ago, we were talking about the fed raising rates. We got three rate cuts despite the fact that we were never really headed for a recession. If we had not gotten those three rate cuts, do you think we would now be talking today about a recession as almost a certain date . Almost a certainty . Paul that is a question about the potency of Monetary Policy. Perhaps headwinds for growth. Believe points, i dont that is the difference between butssion and plain sailing, continuing to monitor, recalibrate policy positions, make sure it is achieving its objectives. In retrospect, history will probably look back. We did have the president in 2018 saying the fed is going too far. As an economist myself, i did not think they needed to hike that much. Might be a bitter pill to swallow for the fed but maybe President Trump actually called this one right. Rates so low,cy some and often fiscal authorities, some handoff to fiscal authorities, they will need to do more. Should fiscal policy have been a much more aggressive part of the mix going back even further, even when ostensibly Central Banks had more bullets to fire . Paul i came as a macro economist out of japan and i have been arguing for decades, call it secular stagnation or a great recession, monetary and fiscal policy has to be used. With the separation of Monetary Policy from the rest of the Economic Policy framework and central bankers being given the main task of maintaining aggregate demand, the onus falls on them. When a central bank is falling is running low on Interest Rate ammunition, that is a time when the time is come to bring in fiscal policy but not on a temporary basis, but help wanted terry policy out help Monetary Policy out. Scarlet with negative Interest Rates, the slew of stories that talk about the japanification of europe and the u. S. Is multiplying. What do you think the likelihood of us seeing negative rates in the u. S. . The president is pushing for it. Paul the fed has signaled clearly that they do not like the idea of negative Interest Rates. I think that is the right stance. I am not a fan of negative Interest Rates. It is a counterintuitive concept to get your at around. Once you are in that negative Interest Rate territory, isnt that really telling you that you have leaned too much on that tool. Why arent you using fiscal policy . You can tug about the expenditures, the tax you can talk about the expenditures, the tax, what makes you want. We into negative territory, they are more likely to use quantitative easing, Forward Guidance type tools, and second, maybe a not so subtle hint to the authorities. Scarlet time to step it up. P aul sheard, thank you so much. Has reported ag agelin. Agile and netflix is falling in the after hours trade. There had been some speculation he likely did not take his stake. That billsing on ackman position. Romaine Robert Lighthizer, the u. S. Trade representative, and Jared Kushner, heading apparently to mexico on tuesday for usmca talks. One of the hangups here is what is going on in the u. S. Congress, getting that deal approved. Apparently two of the top trade negotiators heading to mexico. We are going to talk about the new nafta deal next. This is bloomberg. Scarlet were going to recap some of the breaking there. Bloomberg learning that the Trump Administration and mexico have reached a tentative deal on the trade agreement. We have just learned that Robert Lighthizer and Jared Kushner will be heading to mexico tomorrow. Joining us with the latest is bloomberg congressional reporter eric watson. We were talking about this and how we felt there was this urgency around usmc to get it done soon. Is there a deadline . Eric they are trying to get it done before recess on december 20. We are learning that the head of the aflcio, richard trumka, met with donald trump earlier today. We are expecting nancy pelosi to talk to her Time Leadership people and we may see a deal announcement at that time, 5 00 or 6 00 p. M. Arbitration panels, enforcement of the overall deal, have been sealed. There was a hiccup on steel rules of origin. At this moment, looking all positive usmca. Joe i have read and heard reports that there is a sizable faction within the Democratic Party that really wants a vote. Eric this is really wrapped up with impeachment. We are hearing from democrats and the key swing districts that they dont want to go home with having only voted on impeachment. If they go home to say, we did not have any major legislative achievements but we did vote to impeach the president , they will be in trouble. They are telling nancy pelosi privately, we have that on Good Authority that this needs to be something. Possible movement on a bipartisan prescription drugs package in the senate. There is a push from the moderates to show that they can legislate while they investigate. Romaine the market reaction, at least in equities, relatively muted, as it was in the bond market. Can you quantify the economic impact, economic benefit, should this finally get ratified . Erik this shows less than 1 gdp differential. It is a small ball deal. However, we have china talks, this major threat of tariffs. If the u. S. Trade representative can seal this deal, that they boost confidence. , there is of the day some knock on effect. There is a bit of a difference from nafta in the auto sector, especially the wage floor it creates and mexico. Overall, it is a small ball economic deal. Romaine lets get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. Amazon claims the pentagon failed to fairly judge its bid for a club contract worth up to 10 billion a cloud contract worth up to 10 billion. They say this because President Trump views jeff bezos as his enemy. The pentagon contract ended up going to microsoft. The worlds most valuable Marijuana Company has named a two ceo name day new ceo. Ceo. Ame a new the consolation brands ceo. Owns part of canopy and it is said this boosts the chances of constellation buying canopy on right. Unlimited free stock trades to all customers on the merill edge platform. That follows Charles Schwabs decision to eliminate charges and acquire td ameritrade. Coming up, Boris Johnson has a bad day. How the Prime Minister was put on the defensive as Health Takes Center Stage in the election. That is coming up next. This is bloomberg. Tradition the House Judiciary Committee convened today to formally receive the investigative findings against President Trump. Democrats pushed for impeachment and the white house and allies launched an aggressive attack on the proceedings. Chairman Jerrold Nadler was immediately interrupted by a protester shouting, we voted for donald trump. The protester was escorted from the hearing room by capitol police. Chairman nadler pushed and with the remarks, saying President Trump put himself before the country. The president of the united states, the speaker of the house, chief justice of the supreme court, all have one important thing in common, we have each taken an oath to preserve, protect, and defend the constitution of the united states. The president puts himself before the country, he violates the president s most basic responsibility. Mark House Majority leader Kevin Mccarthy criticized mcgrath for their timeline, which he says is criticized democrats for their timeline of which he says is aimed to prevent voters from making their own decision in the election. Natong with secretarygeneral today to discuss defense. It took place in brussels. Both men later underline the importance of natoeu cooperation. Stoltenberg said the eu cannot replace nato when it comes to the defense of europe. He stressed that a proposed European Defense union would not be an alternative to nato. To build a genuine European Defense union, which is not an , notnative to nato something apart from nato, it is a complenment. Meaningful and strong cooperation, sharing of responsibility of our security and citizens. That stoltenberg added stronger European Defense is contributing to more sharing with nato. As many as 13 people may have died following a volcanic eruption on new zealands white island. Police said early tuesday new zealand time that five people are confirmed dead and eight are missing and presumed dead after the eruption sunday afternoon. Ando those who are lost missing family and friends, we share in your grief at this moment of sorrow. We grieve with you. To our australian family, we will do everything to support you as you have supported us. Authorities send the site was still too dangerous hours ater to search, but Reconnaissance Aircraft has seen no signs of life. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, bloomberg,icktake by powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Romaine some breaking news. French pharmaceutical maker say it will stop its research in diabetes and cardiovascular disease. This announcement comes just a few hours after the company said it would buy a big ma