Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 20240713

Orecast indonesia decides later thursday while the boj starts a meeting. A straily markets have just open. Sophie, what are you seeing . Markets have just opened. Saw steepening for u. S. Bonds, pushing the u. S. 10year yield to a fiveweek high, and the kiwi dollar off about. 1 , reversing the earlier spike we saw on the back of new zealand hosting a faster than forecast gdp report on a quarterly basis, which may provide relief to the rbc. Nikkei Futures Holding steady. Were expecting a mixed session in asia as we have plenty of Rate Decisions on tap from indonesia, taiwan, hong kong, along with the boj meeting under japanese as we see stocks perhaps getting a little more love from investors, but not to be loved just yet. Investor view on japan is improving slightly with net 6 of global investors. Paul thanks for that. Lets check in on the first word news now with ritika gupta. Proposed budget for the next fiscal year will approach the equivalent of 1 trillion for a second straight year. Expenditure will rise more than 1 , almost 940 billion with Social Security thought costs about 1 3 of that. It highlights the drive to curb spending and a country with the developed world. The decision to hold the policy rate at 1. 25 percent was unanimous after two cuts earlier this year. Thailand has struggled to rein in the back, which climbed about 8 against the dollar over the past year. Slowdown may be over and the central bank may not have to keep cutting Interest Rates. Sagging 2. 3r gdp percent in line with expectations while growth from the previous quarter beat estimates. The biggest boost in the quarter i. T. From the retail and sectors. The International Monetary fund sent sharply lower amid continued weakness signaled by highfrequency indicators. Sayshief economist Business Sentiment has fallen and verbal consumption is slumping, adding to declines in the overall economy. The fund has forecast 6. 1 growth for india and will review its numbers in the new year. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Story, theur top impeachment debate rolls on as democrats lay out their case against President Trump. Lets go straight to washington and bloombergs politics reporter. Set the scene for us tonight in terms of those votes on the articles of impeachment and if we could see some surprises in terms of defections from both parties. We are nearing the end of a lengthy sixhour debate on the floor of the house regarding the impeachment of President Trump. He will be the third president in American History just the third to get impeached. It is almost certain to happen. House Democratic Leaders have a cushion of about a dozen votes. Even if they lose some, they are thel likely to succeed in boat and to impeach the president. The only defections we have seen so far and this has been consistent since the opening of the inquiry is two democrats. Collin peterson, who represents one of the most republican leading districts, and jeff andrew of new jersey, who was rumored to be joining the republican party. Notable one, former republican turned independent who is now a strong supporter of impeaching from stair fire. He says it is not about partisan affiliation but civic duty to uphold the constitution to support the impeachment of President Trump. That is what we are looking at right now. I would not expect any surprises at this point because the vast majority of republicans who signaled some openness to impeachment have already said they would vote against it, and Many Democrats who are thought to be potentially winnable, like ,endra horn for instance democrats who won and republican leaning areas last fall, have said they would support the impeachment of President Trump. This is sort of a done deal in the house. What happens in the senate . Mitch mcconnell seems to be implying theres zero chance the president will be convicted. What is next then . What happens next is after the house votes to impeach the president , it goes to the senate or a trial. The parameters of the trial are still being negotiated by mcconnell, the republican leader, and his democratic counterpart, Chuck Schumer. This could be as short as a couple of weeks or could drag on a little longer if theres no agreement to do it more quickly than that. The two Senate Leaders are also negotiating over if there will be more witnesses called at trial. Someone like mick mulvaney, the White House Acting chief of staff, who has made comments very relevant to the president s actions in ukraine, but Mitch Mcconnell has rejected those, so longld not expect a impeachment trial where a lot of witnesses are called. Republican leaders want to wrap this up pretty quickly and to your other point, Mitch Mcconnell has said he expects he is almost certain in his view the president the senate will acquit President Trump. Remember, 2 3 of the votes in the chamber are required to remove the president from office. 20ocrats would need republicans to join them in so far, not a single one has said they would do that. Couldis there a risk this backfire on democrats . We just got a headline from larry kudlow saying impeachment is probably helping the president politically. Theres not a lot of evidence of that. A brandnew poll out just about an hour ago shows the country dead even on impeachment. It. Favorite, 40 8 oppose one thing republicans have been saying pretty aggressively is that this will backfire, but does not a lot of evidence for that. Thats more Political Campaign talk at this point. Paul thanks for joining us. We will have more on the impeachment debate later. Sigman Global Advisor chairman Charles Myers will be here in the next hour and former White House Assistant press secretary joins us later. Coming up micron surged in late trade amid indications demand for memory chips is rebounding. That earnings analysis is ahead. All Major Chinese indices remain in overbought territory. We discuss that. This is bloomberg. Omberg. Paul you are watching daybreak asia. Chinese stocks are running again after months of slumber, sentiment buoyed by easing trade tensions as well as optimism about a revival in the domestic economy. Thanks for joining us. I want to jump straight into this chart on the bloomberg if we can. It illustrates what i was talking about. We see risk of chinese stocks, but also a suggestion we are due for some correction. One of the characteristics of this rally that weve seen over the last few weeks is the overall breadth in the market has been quite healthy. There has been a broadbased level of advances in the market, the market going up led by banks and technology stocks, so it is all very positive, and sentiment is definitely recovering on the domestic equity market, and its not too different from the set up we saw in january, february earlier this year. That brought pause with the tariffs earlier in may. In the shortterm, our technicals are quite positive leading to 2020. Paul in the background, theres an expectation that theres more stimulus and perform coming from the pboc as well. Is that your expectation . What would it look like . I think there is a focus on moving the economy towards a and aptiondriven model, bit of more focus back on social housing, so at those lower key cities, you kind of see the tax cuts have been through this year. Consumption has picked up, and gettinge is a focus on out to the masses. Shery where do you bet if you are betting on consumption rising in china . There has been a very active push from, say, Companies Like to expand into the lower east cities in china, and the reason is because ecommerce penetration in those cities is low and infrastructure has been delivery,to handle and there is a growing awareness of buying things online and morelets have become proliferated. Alibaba is well positioned in that kind of environment. We also like yum china, the largest Restaurant Business in managing the kfc and pizza hut brands, and they are exclusively growing. They have massive scale. Dvantages over their peers when you say you like china and the consumption story, do you prefer it over the u. S. And the u. S. Consumption story . Composite has been underperforming the s p 500 for years as we continue to see trade tensions. Can mask what is happening underneath the surface, and also, it does not have a lot of the stocks we mentioned. The big drag on the shanghai composite over the last couple large energybeen stocks, largecap banks. They have been dragging the index down. If you look at some of the more , theyconsumption plays have actually done very well over the last couple of years. They are wellpositioned into that chinese consumption story. Paul what is your outlook for the yuan at the moment . In the near term, we think the you want has the ability to appreciate, but in the medium to longer term, which i think is china is nowrtant, a current account deficit country, so it is competing in Global Capital markets like the u. S. To fund the current account, and that possibly could mean that over time, the you one depreciates over the more medium to longer term. In the near term, we think it will do well. Portfolio rebalanced back into chinese equities, chinese bonds, the dollar overall could have a bit of a softer patch against emergingmarket currencies as chinas currency also bounces back, so in the near term, we think it will appreciate, but mediumterm, longterm, we think those depreciation pressures still remain. Paul i want to get back to the call you made on alibaba. Is that strictly a retail consumption call . Is primarily an ecommerce platform in china, very well geared into the consumption story, but along the side, theres actually quite interesting businesses they are building alongside to complement that. We talked a lot about the cloud stories in the u. S. Alibaba has over 50 market share in the infrastructure as a service space. Theres alipay, which is the largest payments platform in china, which is also incredibly valuable, so there are quite exciting bits, which we think at the moment you are not really paying at lot four. Today, you are really buying the ecommerce business on fairly attractive multiples with 20 or 25 topline growth rates. Shery thanks for joining us again. Micron technologies jumped in late trade after beating earnings estimates and giving a strong forecast. Demand from memory the view ist demand for memory chips rising. And micron also said it could resume doing business with huawei. Su it has received all the necessary license to start supplying the products it already does to huawei and that will contribute to its bottom line. You may remember the suspension because a dent to the stock. Lets look at how micron is moving in extended trading. It has been up almost as much as. again, if you look at the year to date chart, you can see the stock has performed very well, and going into earnings, we saw two analysts raise their ratings on micron, saying revenue will billion or 4. 8 billion in the Second Quarter. Analysts had projected less than that. Also, wall street expects the market for both computer and smartphone components to return to where it was in the second half of the year. Micron appears to be supporting this. There is a potential bottom in memory chip pricing that is worth noting on this chart. This is the index for pricing. You can see microns stock has been improving. Notably, the ceo said in a statement that we are optimistic that microns fiscal Second Quarter will be the cyclical bottom for our financial performance, so all of this supports a very strong day for chips when the market opens. This strong outlook for micron comes as two analysts upgraded the stock this weekend. Morgan stanley insisting they got it wrong for the sector. Thats very interesting. One of the reasons they had put a cautious outlook on chips was the trade conflict between the u. S. And china. That has clearly changed. If you look at how the Semiconductor Index has performed look at that it is up almost 60 yeartodate to date. That is another reason Morgan Stanleys analyst admitted his cautious view on the group was clearly wrong given the stock performance. He think say and broadcom are among the companies along with in xp, which was razed in june, that will be doing well. Micron coming out with some very strong statements here. Again, they are seeing a rebound in demand. You so much for that. We are watching proceedings on capitol hill very closely as we await those votes on articles of impeachment against President Trump. We will bring you those live as they happen. Plenty more to come. This is bloomberg. Paul you are watching daybreak asia. Sam drucker millers embracing timidly. N, albeit he spoke exclusively with bloomberg about what could be the trigger for a downturn. If theres a political event, change of leadership in the white house that goes to some of the anticapitalists, i would think that would definitely trigger a bear market. If it would permanently end the bull market, i dont know, but that would trigger it. The other thing that would trigger it is if i the end of this year, we started to get enough inflation that the fed started tightening, and then, of course, the other thing is if we had a credit event. If you look at the credit thatts, its very obvious youve got really a lot of bad apples out there that are not being exposed because the interest costs are so low by the way, one of them being the u. S. Government. We are running a trillion dollar deficit. Why . Because we can. Professorhese geniuses think this is just a free lunch, but i would think it is one of those events. A political. B, change in fed policy because, you know, who knows when inflation turns . You could come up with a theory why it would. I kind of believe the secular force is a little bit down, but i could be wrong. The third is and this is more what happened in 2007, 2008 that the bubble just collapses on itself because things have just gotten so ridiculous. I dont think we are anywhere near there, but ive been wrong things seem tose happen after elections. Extraordinary year for investors. How did you do . Not as well as i would like. I just got into double digits. Evenweek, i would not have been able to say that. Im just too conservative in my old age. I was wellpositioned, but very timidly. I will leave it at that. Why are you timid . Youve got nothing to lose. I have a lot to lose. Thats one of the reasons im timid. I dont know when i was competing and managing other just am a very i competitive person, and i felt the compulsion to take risks. Im still a competitive person, but its either that or something about my age. I dont trust myself. Particular,year in ive just never trusted this administration not to do preclude meat would from taking positions that i just thought were safe and secure and all in risk, and i think unfortunately, a lot of people probably felt the same way. As you know, people have actually sold equities and put it into bonds this year. I did not do that. I was just timid about what i did do, but this administration, wondering where the hell the next bomb is coming from, just does not allow me to take some of the historic some of the positions i have taken historically. Its not just policy uncertainty. What would you call it . Policy uncertainty is a great term. One of the reasons im pretty sanguine right now is i think we are close enough to the election at least we can breathe for a few months that i think i dont expect any dramatic policy favorableverwhelm the backdrop of monetary stimulus in a decent economy. Lets get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. Boeings Credit Rating has been downgraded by moodys, which says the extended grouting of the 737 max and regulatory boosts the companys financial and operational risk. Moodys says a further downgrade could happen if the grounding runs into the second half of next year. Paul hsbcs outlook rating has. Een cut to negative by Moodys Moodys says profit will be subdued in the next few years but notes if the Restructuring Plan is carried out properly, the bank will benefit in the future. Broadcom rose on reports it is looking to offload one of its chip units. Dow jones says it is working with Credit Suisse to attract bids for its radiofrequency arm, something that would accelerate this move away from being simply a maker of semiconductors. It has revenue of more than 2 billion in the 2019 fiscal year. Coming up next, we will have the latest on the houses impeachment push as lawmakers gear up for historic boats. You are watching live pictures of capitol hill as President Trump could become the third u. S. President in history to be impeached. This is bloomberg. It takes time sometimes for the fundamentals to assert themselves. Some of our guests with their outlook for the full year. Global stocks are trading near alltime highs, but there may be a few nearterm catalysts given that we are seeing signs of overheating, as you can see in the chart right here on the terminal, and on wednesday, the s p 500 closing slightly higher after a recordsetting rally, trading in the highest range we have seen since 2017. Ignored stagnant Earnings Growth to focus on the fed and trade. Ritika protests continue in india as the controversial religionbased citizenship law. Eads to courts the court will next hear the case on january 22 and may decide then if the law should be halted. They do factor leader of myanmar says last weeks genocide case at the International Court of neglected key facts about revenge or conflict. In her first comments since the hague, Aung San Suu Kyi said the hearing failed to mention historic difficulties between the military and minority population. She mentioned violations of human rights but insisted that could not be considered genocide. The metal rallied to more than 120 dollars a ton in july. Hong kong is jumping into virtual banking with a shakeup of the system that may take as much as 30 of traditional revenue. It is initially targeting 2000 retail clients before gathering feedback ahead of an initial launch. They were among companies granting a license for a virtual banking launched by the Hong Kong Monetary authority. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg power by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than one hundred 20 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Shery thank you. Lets get back to capitol hill as we count on to the in thement vote expected coming hours. We kind of know how the story will end. We get the impeachment vote, President Trump becomes the third president in u. S. History to be impeached, but then he will not be convicted in the senate. After the trial ends say, around february what will be the biggest take away from this huge Political Drama . I think the vote today will be along party lines. There will not be any surprises. We could see some surprises out of the senate trial early next year because republicans are going to try to make the trial more of a referendum on joe biden and what he or his son may have done in the ukraine or china, so its part of a deflection tactic. I have been saying one of the biggest casualties of impeachment is probably not President Trump but might be joe biden. Biden, butjust joe the fact that a handful of senators will be tied down to this process in the senate trial. They will have to be jurors in the process. How will that impact the campaign . It really depends how long the trial is. If Mitch Mcconnell wants to extend the trial, it will prevent senators that are running for president from being out on the campaign trail, but i think mitch will follow process. For the most part, it will be a relatively short trial, and then the president will be acquitted and everyone will move on. Shery President Trump seems to have wanted a fullblown process, right . Is senator mcconnell right in wanting this to be shorter, especially given how politically sensitive it is . I think despite what the president said, everyone would like to trial to be relatively quick and get it over with so everyone can move on. I think there is still some fallout from the president. Being the third president to be impeached in history is not a positive, and at the trial, there could be more not new evidence, but more negative taint to the president , and i think again both sides really want to get it over with and move on. Paul we have seen a couple of democrats peel away, including one who is rumored to be perhaps switching allegiance to the republican party. When and if it does get to the senate, are there any republicans wavering, or will oft be a moral defense President Trump . I think we will see a partisan vote in the senate ultimately. There may be one or two republican senators who effect and vote against president and very vulnerable states. People are talking about Susan Collins of maine, possibly the senator from colorado, possibly north carolina, but i think for the most part there will not be any surprises on the outcome, and they will back the president. This just a piece of beltway theater . Is there any evidence of this gaining traction in the wider electorate . We have larry kudlow saying impeachment may help President Trump politically. Both sides are trying to spin it to their advantage, but as i said earlier, being the third president in the history of the country to be impeached is not a positive. Second, in terms of any potential fallout, what weve seen so far in the polling is it has not moved anyone in the democratic base. They still believe the president is guilty. The president s base leave this is a complete waste of time and a witch hunt. Where we see a Little Movement is among independent voters, and i think that was part of the intent all along on the part of the democrats. First, to hold the president accountable, but second, to try to move some independent voters. I suspect during the trial, the polling around that next month will show perhaps a little tsvement among independen toward the president. Shery how significant is this in terms of market moves, especially if you compare it to the mueller investigation, that took forever but clearly did not have much of an impact on the markets . I would say it is almost a nonevent. Markets are focused on fundamentals, on the trade war. There are so many other things to be thinking about, and i think in january, it would be the same thing. The markets like certainty, so barring any major surprise, which markets which we are not expect in, i think it mostly will be a nonmarket event. Where it will have an impact is on the 2020 race. Again, i think we will unfortunately here more than most people may be wanted on the democratic side about the activities of joe bidens son. It will come out a lot in the trial. Theres even talk of trying to get the son to testify at the trial. I dont think that will happen, but i think there will be quite a bit that will come out. After this is done, will super tuesday march 3 be the next thing we should be watching . I think a little earlier than that. I think iowa on february 3 will be important. We then have New Hampshire very quickly, nevada and south carolina, then super tuesday. That month period will be very important for the market because of the overall political overhang on the markets next year with the election, and especially the democratic primary. I would add quickly because i spend a lot of my time in asia and the middle east that there is a broad consensus out there that trump is going to get reelected, especially amongst Financial Services participants and money managers. If in fact democrats put forward someone like joe biden or Mike Bloomberg or someone that is more moderate and it looks like that person is going to win, i do think we could see markets really start to Pay Attention and actually get a bit nervous about the election next year, partly because of the very high expectation and consensus trump will get reelected. There could be some disappointment in markets on that. Paul we are still seeing live pictures of this debate going on in the house, obviously being treated with tremendous gravity, but, really, what does it all mean beyond symbolism . President clinton got impeached, and at the end of the day, it did not matter, did it . Exactly. People are very divided on this issue. Independent thinkers come out is bill clinton was impeached ultimately for obstruction and perjury around an extramarital affair. In this case, you have a president that has asked a foreign power to intervene essentially in our election, so it is very different, but i think the outcomes will be somewhat similar in terms of really not moving that many people. It is somewhat symbolic, but again, we need to get through it. There may be some damaging information on perhaps the bidens, and then we can move on and really focus on the primary. Paul thanks so much for joining us. We will have more analysis on the impeachment process ahead when the White House Assistant press joins bloomberg tv later, but up next, we will preview the bank of japan decision do later today. This is bloomberg. Paul this is daybreak asia. Im paul allen in sydney. Shery im shery in new york. The bank of japan wraps up its last meeting of the year later today and is expected to hold steady once again. Kathleen hays is here with the preview. We have some newfound optimism. Kathleen think about it. For the last six months of this year, it has been pessimism. Will the boj have to add more stimulus . What can we do . Could they make the negative rate more negative . Could it even make a difference . Fiscalinister abes package i put at the top of their list. Look at the bloomberg terminal and we will see why this is so important and such a big relief for so many people, including the bank of japan. You can see how youre are looking at retail sales, and you can see 2014, the first big drop down where the red lines are. That actually preceded a big drop down below. You can see what happens, and you can see the far righthand side, looks like that might already be starting to happen. This all kinds of things hurting the japanese consumer right now and the japanese economy, but on the bottom, you can see gdp has already slowed down 1. 8 year on year and could get worse. A lot of people in fact are looking for a negative Fourth Quarter, but in terms of another , we are looking at governor kuroda here, and the u. S. China trade deal, its only phase one, theres a lot of questions, but he has put a lot of emphasis on this and last week said the outlook for 2020 is looking relatively bright, underscoring the sense that finally, theres a reason for the boj to be more optimistic, and its really affecting how economists on our bloomberg the bojre expecting on survey. Three quarters sought easing us the next move. Now only 9 see more stimulus coming down the track. Team hasberg economics significantly less weight on it shoulders. Ill bet thats exactly how governor kuroda feels. Paul bank of japan tightening are a collection of words i never expected to see in a sentence. What can we expect to come out of this meeting . Kathleen we are waiting to see if they will have to do more. People talking about their next move being tightening. What kind of questions, what are we thinking about . How much impact will governor these fiscalom measures by Prime Minister abe that start in april . How much will he say they will help the economy . Essentially the boj feels it does not have to do as much with policy. Package seen as using pressure, and finally, how does he see the impact of his u. S. China phase one deal . He has certainly been looking at the lack of a trade deal as a big factor weighing down on the economy. How much does he say it looks like this can do, particularly after 13 months in a row of exports being down yearoveryear, so the press conference will be pretty important. Us. thanks for joining we will have more on the bank of japan throughout our shows this morning. We will speak with a former governor. Boj next, staff at softbank mission fund tell bloomberg about a culture of recklessness. We will take a closer look at that story next. This is bloomberg. Asia. This is daybreak im shery ahn in new york. Paul im paul allen in sydney. A Holding Company of indias mammoth tartar group has had a sharp legal defeat after an an executive ruled had been improperly fired in 2016. Tartar has four weeks to appeal the ruling. Month low in paris after its price target was cut on indications the upcoming Lunar New Year will be difficult. The stock closed at its lowest since midfebruary after shipment data from cognac confirmed further weakness in sales growth in asia. Says thet bank aramark numbers indicate demand will be even worse than expected. Watching casino stocks in hong kong trade later jumps oner the u. S. Chinas jumps on decision to limit all major operators enjoyed the lift in new york. The move marked a stamp of approval in beijing. Shery staying with casinos, companies that have seen japan as a potential 20 million Gaming Market may be questioning if that cap it is worth all the trouble. Consumersg in our reporter. We saw japan legalize new casinos back in 2016. Why are these operators becoming more pessimistic about the country now . Casinos in japan has been the goal for many gaming operators, and they are still actively pursuing it. Said, we are three years in the process, and something has happened in recent months. There has been some surprises in the process and a new policy that has made some of these operators go back and look at if what they are investing in japan will be worth the returns. We spoke to some of these gaming executives who have also mentioned they knew that japan would be difficult, but compared to other jurisdictions where they built up to Gaming Markets, it has been a bit more complex than they expected. Paul what is the chance of some sort of Regulatory Reform in japan to make operating a casino a little bit more appealing . I think in terms of regulation, they are kind of going along with the process. I think what the operators main concern has been is that National Operators have made it known they want these casinos to happen, but they seem to lack in from local stakeholders such as local businesses, such as help with financing or local governments to help kick off the processes, so when these surprises spring up, it makes it difficult to estimate the potential revenue and cost of operating such a project, which gives them pause. For joining us. Lets turn now to softbank. Its vision fund best known for its outsized bets on tech startups. The latest that Bloomberg Businessweek cover story shines light on the working environment , and you see a giant flaming pile of cash. What is going on inside softbank . At this point, people are pretty familiar with the problems that softbank has had with wework in particular. The Office Sharing startup tried to go public and had this botched ipo where public investors ended up balking at the high valuations, but this story takes you inside softbank to explain the culture behind that and some of the other problems, some of the other strategic challenges the company has. It kind of lays out how song has encouraged this strategy of go big or go home. Talking to start of founders and the partners inside the vision fund and really encouraging them to accelerate growth, to be more ambitious in their strategic plans. One anecdote or example is a Chinese Company that allows you to hail trucks the same way you would hail a car with, say, uber, and hes talking with one of the partners working on the deal and says we need to go much bigger on this. He encouraged him to be more ambitious in the financial projections for the company and therefore the valuation of the company. Also, there are anecdotes where we lay out why it is so difficult for some of the start of founders to try to grow much more quickly than they had in the past. It means taking on more markets than they had originally planned and also expanding into new geographies they maybe had not thought about getting into quite as quickly. That increases the degree of difficulty for these founders. Quickly,to hire more grow staff more quickly, and that is a challenge in keeping with someones vision of dominating key niche is of technology but very difficult from an execution standpoint in many cases. We are now seeing the first operating loss for softbank in what . 14, 15 years . We are talking also about that 9 billion loss in the vision fund, so when this Public Company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is under so much pressure, how will this impact their performance and also their Investment Strategy Going Forward . Paul the data is very indicative there. It has been 14 years. It is important to remember that my sushi son has been in many different businesses since he. Ounded softbank for a long time, this was a telecom focused business that generated cash flow, and he used the cash to be able to invest in a new range of technology. He has focused on the vision fund, and these Big Investments and start ups, it is a completely different business and does not generate cash with the same kind of stability it had in the past. Theres a lot more risks here. Shery of course, markets opening japan and south korea at the top of the hour. Lets turn to sophie for what to watch. Sophie futures reporting modest gains in tokyo. Seeing sydney, we are data jumping the terminal for the snapshot of sydney trade so far this morning, we are seeing utilities and industrials lead gains when it comes to the. Ercentage just shy of reaching afresh alltime high. Focus, openingn lower after the drop we saw in treasuries overnight. We see the flattening of the jgb yield curve. Also, the finance ministry reducing sales. Paul we are still seeing live pictures from capitol hill in washington is that impeachment debate continues. E will keep you updated plenty ahead. This is bloomberg. What are you doing back there, junior . Since were obviously lost, im rescheduling my Xfinity Customer Service appointment. Ah, relax. I got this. Which gps are you using anyway . A Little Something called instinct. Been using it for years. Yeah, thats what im afraid of. He knows exactly where were going. My whole body is a compass. Oh boy. The my account app makes todays Xfinity Customer Service simple, easy, awesome. Not my thing. Paul good morning. Ages major markets have opened for trade. Shery good evening. Welcome to daybreak asia. Paul our top stories this thursday, House Democrats lay out their case for impeachment. President trump compares the proceedings to the salem witch trials. Central Bank Policies makes the headlines. Indonesia decides later on thursday as does the bank of japan. Shery this hour brings some of the most unpredictable data with aussie job numbers due in half an hour. We have japan and south korea coming online. Lets get straight to the Market Action sophie it is also boj Rate Decision day. We are seeing nikkei pressure off a 10th of 1 . The yen Holding Steady. Whatraders waiting to see the governor may have to say on guild control. Whether that could spark some steepening in the curve. Kospi gaining ground. We are seeing bonds in focus. The yield rise. Going back to what is happening in korea, the korean yuan gaining ground. It has been a performer so far this week when it comes to asian fx. In sydney, the asx 100 gaining 2 10 of 1 . When it comes to bonds, we are keeping an eye on what is going on with treasuries. The steepening we saw overnight that pushed the 10 year yield above 1. 9 . Shery thank you. Its turn to our top story. The house of representatives is having towards a historic vote on whether to impeach donald trump. Lets go straight to washington. What is it, like six hours into this debate . What is we expect next . Are we expecting any surprises . We are minutes away from the final speeches being given. The final speeches will be delivered on the impeachment debate by House Republican leader Kevin Mccarthy and House Speaker nancy pelosi, who is a democrat here are the defections we are expecting. Two democrats. Peterson of minnesota represents the most republican leaning district. Jeffelfin the second is van drew of new jersey. He is expected to become a republican. He is currently voting as a democrat. He is pretty much viewed as a republican. The third notable person is justin amash, the former republican who became an independent after he announced his support for impeachment. That shows how difficult it is to be for impeachment if you are still a republican. Those defections have been consistent from the start. There may be some democrats who vote for articles of for one article of impeachment and against the other. Cushion. Elosi has a it is almost certain to be passed. Paul also, the vote pretty much a foregone conclusion. What happens next in terms of timing for the senate trial and you expect to see any defections . Senateexpectation is the take this up in january and holds the trial. The length is not determined. Those negotiations are ongoing between senate Michael Senate majority leader Mitch Mcconnell and Chuck Schumer in the minority. The significance of this is that the president ial primary season kicks off early february in iowa. Of senators are running for president on the democratic side. They will be forced to serve as jurors on the impeachment trial for President Trump. This could be a blow to them. This is what were looking at, a likely senate trial that wreps up in january. Paul the president today on his way to battle creek, michigan for a rally. He has been very active on twitter, typing in all caps, what are we to make of this . The president has been extremely vocal on this. He has consistently railed against this. He has written letters, he has tweeted, he has told his voters that in his view, the whole impeachment attempts by democrats is political. He thinks they are doing it to hurt him politically. So far, this does not seem to have yielded benefit for either party. Keep an eye on the polls. That will determine if theres any chance of the president getting convicted and removed from office. That is exceedingly unlikely. There are 47 democrats, which means 20 republican senators need to cross the aisle and vote to convict President Trump. So far, not one of them had said they will do that. President trump will almost certainly be impeached by the house of representatives and exonerated by the senate. Shery calling witnesses and whatnot, what are we hearing in terms of how this trial will proceed and what does majority leader Mitch Mcconnell want to see . There has been an interesting division between the white house and Senate Republican leaders. The white house wants this to be a longer trial. They want to drag in witnesses and potentially rivals like joe biden and hunter biden. Leaders do notan seem to want to do that. Mitch mcconnell has suggested he is not going to call additional witnesses. That he wants a speedy trial. Generallyublicans are less interested in making a big circus of this van some of their counterparts in the house. By defensess driven of the president. There rhetoric seems to be a lot more sober minded than the president s allies in the house. I would expect a different tone once it comes to the senate. Shery tell us a little about the historical significance of what is happening tonight. President trump will only become the third u. S. President to be impeached. Absolutely. This will beaches that the third time this will be just the third time. There was an example with Richard Nixon in the 1970s, but he resigned before the vote. This will be the first time in u. S. History a republican president has been impeached. Andrew johnson and bill clinton were both democrats. As well as the fact that this will be the first time in American History they democratic led house has impeached the president. Shery going into this impeachment process, the calculation was that the American Public would be able to understand what is happening against President Trump more clearly than the Ongoing Investigation that special Counsel Robert Mueller put forth. How are americans feeling about this . Americans have moved quickly to their partisan corners. The country has gone from imposing the impeachment to being divided down the middle after democrats announced they would be pursuing this inquiry in late september. Much like we saw in the Robert Mueller investigation where voters rented their specific corners voters rented their specific corners, that the same thing seems to be happening here. It is not clear how this will play politically in the 2020 election. The people who are most vulnerable as a result are house thecrats who won for first time in 2018 as well as Senate Republicans who are from blue states or purple states. Someone like Susan Collins of maine. Their states lean democratic. They will be casting very tough votes jade it will be there very tough votes. We will have President Trump speaking very soon at a rally. When the election season does get rolling, how is this going to play out in those key battleground states . That is the milliondollar question. We do not know the answer yet. We have not seen a lot of polling. We have plenty of National Polling that shows the country deadlocked down the middle. A new poll by nbc and the wall street journal found that 40 of the country favors impeachment and 40 opposes it. How that breaks down into individual states remains to be seen. There is a lot that will happen between now and the election. It is about 11 months away. It is certain this will be a topic of conversation on the campaign trail. When it was the rush investigation and now when it impeachment, the issues that matter tend to be health care, education, college tuition, drug prices. Those are still the most important issues voters are telling pollsters they care about. It is hard to ignore something as historic as impeachment has happened. Keeping an eye on that impeachment process in the house. We will have more analysis coming up from the White House Assistant press secretary who is going to join bloomberg tv later lets get. The first word news. Japans proposed budget for the next fiscal year will approach the equivalent of a trillion dollars for the next year. Expenditure will rise more than 1 to almost 940 billion. Social security costs to a third of that. It highlights the struggle to curb Government Spending in country with the largest public debt in the developed world. The International Monetary fund is set to made weakness. Chief Economist Says Business Sentiment has fallen and rule consumption is slumping, adding to declines in the overall economy. The fund has forecasted 6. 1 growth and will review the numbers. Protests continue in india is the citizenship law heads to the top court. The government insists legislation will not be withdrawn, but the Supreme Court is to examine its legality after petitions were filed. The court will elect to hear the case in january. One of the mostwatched football matches in the world kicked off amid heavy security and separatist demonstration. Barcelona versus real madrid was poe toned was postponed two months ago. Thousands of police and private security were deployed at the stadium. The game was forecast to annex to made it hundred 50 Million Viewers worldwide. It finished goalless. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Ahead, we will preview todays doj decision boj decision. Next, the market morgan assetthe jp manager. This is bloomberg. Shery you are watching daybreak asia. Japans markets are 15 minutes into trade. Lets check in on the stock movers. Shares falling as much as 4. 3 after unveiling a deal to buy hit taki chemical. This comes on the back of the sale of the diagnostic imaging unit. Bloomberg expects more action from the conglomerate in 2020. Shares rising as a settlement is reached. Shoes uvas falling on its agreement to buy the volvo trucks unit with plans afoot also for a strategic alliance. Nearly 3 billion dollars 3 trillion. Volatility at a fiveyear low. Bond spreads have been there rest in almost three years. Emerging markets are ending the gear with a spring in their next in their step. Investment specialist janet joins us from hong kong. I want to get to this chart on the bloomberg terminal. It shows Southeast Asia trading at the cheapest relative to the asiapacific. Does this scream buy . Janet asian markets enjoy a very strong recovery in the Fourth Quarter this year. Looking to do thousand 20, we remain constructive overall. There are a few reasons to support this. Successfully led to a market for 2020. A positive sign. Secondly, we see the u. S. Dollar is trending down for two months. In 2020. We believe the u. S. Dollar should remain on a downtrend. Overall, the Asian Corporate earnings are now at a much stronger footing. If you look at the earnings revision ratio, it is bottoming asiand by some north markets as well as technology sectors. We believe the overall fundamental support is there for the market. In terms of the markets, we believe we should stay with some of the structural Growth Drivers as well as overall, there are a lot of opportunities here. Paul how do the dividend yields stack up for emerging asia . 2020, i think looking to if you look at a global bond yield, it has been pretty low or negative in some of these developed markets. The hunts for income would drive investors to look for dividends of stock in asia. In asia, this is a skewed market for dividend investing. Developed asian markets like australia, singapore, and hong kong were dividend payout is higher. There are a lot of there are a lot to choose from. In chinese asia or korean markets, they are having dividend reform. Some korean heard banks canceling shares, which is a positive shareholder improvement. We believe in asia, we can find a lot more high dividend paying stocks and what we call growth that reasonable coding names here. Shery how much will the u. S. Dollar help or hurt u. S. Asian equities in 2020 . Markets, wehe asian have seen some historical evidence suggesting a weaker u. S. Dollar is skewed for emerging markets. For the u. S. Dollar two months ago in early september, it was relatively high. Right now with the fed signaling a pause and the u. S. Outperformance over the em markets is going to be narrowed, we believe the u. S. Dollar should trend down. We do not really need the u. S. Dollar to significantly follow to help the asian market, we just need a more steady u. S. Dollar. That would be a strong positive. Shery are you factoring in the potentialnks having increases in rates. We continue to see much more positive news whether it is on the trade funds or Economic Data trade friends or Economic Data out of china. Janet we believe there is more room for global government on the fiscal front mainly because global Central Banks do not have much room to ease the Interest Rates further. We believe that cycle is probably coming to an end. If the Global Economic environment worsens, the global central governments are likely to stimulate via fiscal stimulus through tax cuts or other measures. We believe that should be the key trend for 2020. Paul how about emerging market debt . Is that starting to look more appealing as well . Janet for emerging markets as a whole, overall, emergingmarket equities as well as bonds are very interesting. For the equities, they are at chief valuations compared to the developed markets. Earnings recovery is in sight. For the bond market compared to the developed market, em debt has a more attractive valuation. Paul just want to get to one of your key risks as well, which you list as inflation. When you look at developed markets such as japan, we have not and seat we have not seen inflation there for nearly two decades. Janet in terms of risk, there are still two keys to watch out for. Number one is trade development. Number two is inflation. Importantly, inflation right now is under control. We have not seen any Inflationary Pressure globally. If somehow there is a supply shock whether from food or commodity prices, and that leads to a spike in inflation, that would make global Central Banks harder to maintain a commodity situation. It forces them to hike rates earlier than expected. That would kill the current extended cycle. We do not believe right now, we have the Inflationary Pressure. Shery thank you. Managementan asset joining us from hong kong. We take to two take you to a live shot from capitol hill. The debate continues in the house. It has been going on for about six hours. We are expecting House Speaker nancy pelosi to start speaking. We will get two votes on the articles of impeachment. If either one passes, President Trump become the third u. S. President to be impeached. We will bring you that vote live. This is bloomberg. Paul this is daybreak asia. Im paul allen in sydney. Shery im shery ahn in new york. Lets get a check of the latest headlines. Boeing Credit Rating has been downgraded. Uncertainty moved the companys operational risk. Moodys lowered the senior unsecured debt reading from a three to a two and says a further downgrade could happen if the grounding runs into the second half of next year. Outlook rating hsbcs outlook rating has been cut to negative. Moodys said profit will be subdued in the next two years but note save the Restructuring Plan is carried out properly, the bank will benefit. The default rating was also downgraded to a plus. From a Holding Company india has suffered a giant defeat. It was ordered to reinstate the chairman after a Appeals Court ruled he had been improperly fired in 2016. Planecision may affect the to find assets. It has four weeks to appeal the ruling. Here is another live look at congress. We are seeing the House Majority leader speaking. The debate continues for six hours as we head to the historic vote on two articles of impeachment that could lead donald trump to become the third u. S. President to become impeached after Andrew Johnson and will clinton. The end and bill clinton. Expectedchment vote is to be passed with President Trump becoming the third president to be impeached. We will have plenty more in the next halfhour of daybreak asia. We continue to watch out for President Trump as he has a Campaign Rally in battle creek, michigan. This is bloomberg. Paul we are just getting breaking news on the bloomberg. Jobless numbers for australia november. Nth of slightly better than expected. Unemployment rate ticking down to 5. 2 . 39,900. Ated, the survey was for 15,000. Participation rate Holding Steady on 66 . Most of those jobs created you appear to be parttime jobs. Fulltime jobs. We see the aussie dollar climbing just a little. 68. 77 right now. The reserve bank of australia had said previously and needed to see improvement in the labor wages, particularly market growth. The picture you are seeing, bushfire smoke has returned to sydney. Temperatures approaching 40 degrees. Wind blowing from the west. Hasstate of New South Wales this morning declared a state of emergency due to 100 fires burning across the state. Two of them, extremely large as the heatwave shows no sign of abating. Lets get a check of what is happening on the markets. This thursday, asian stocks modestly higher. The kiwi dollar has retraced its earlier advents, now under pressure by a 10th of 1 . Writing its earlier jump on the back of the Third Quarter gdp numbers looking better than expected. We are seeing the aussie dollar gain ground. The korean yuan on firmer footing. Seeing gains from the kospi this morning while the nikkei has been fluctuating. Lets give you a check in on bonds. We are seeing yields pickup across the region. A pickup of seven basis points. You are seeing the japanese 10 year gaining ground as jgb traders are waiting on the bojs trade decision. We are expecting some steepening on the curve. The could be a boost in 40 year notes. The u. S. 10 year yield holding at a fiveweek high. Lets check in on a couples stock movers. Hitachi chemicals jumping as much as 13 percent. It is an entire 51 stake. Shery thank you so much for that. Lets stay in japan. The central bank will likely keep rates on hold. We continue to see a fall in trade tensions whether it is between the u. S. And china or the trade negotiations continuing between japan and south korea. We have had the government stimulus coming from prime , 100 20 billion of fiscal measures. This has greatly improved the outlook of great for japan. We continue to see risks we may be heading into a recession with the japanese economy expected to shrink in the latest quarter. We have the consumption tax hike in the beginning of october that had the japanese economy. Lets try to look ahead to the policy decision. In a few minutes, we will have the boj board member. Paul, there continues to be this focus of focus on the japanese economy as we got these import numbers yesterday showing a bigger fall than expected. We finally have our guest online. He joins us now. Great to have you with us. Lets get started with the stimulus measures coming from Prime Minister abe. He is saying they have completed compiling next years budget. How have the stimulus back stimulus package from the government changed the calculation for the bank of japan . The economic stimulus package contributes to the japanese Economic Growth about 0. 3 percentage points. I think the timing for the government to introduce the economic package was good. Shery we did see import numbers yesterday against falling in the double digits where than expected. Is this concerning what it is telling you about domestic demand in japan . Yes, i think particularly, the Manufacturing Sector is weakening, especially against the exports. At this moment, our concern is more on the Manufacturing Sectors. The profit is significantly. It is because of the exports with china and asia not doing well. Japans exports in the United States as well. This is a major concern. In the service sector, sentiment is dropping but still quite good. Still quite active. The concern at this moment is manufacturing any the export sector. Tax we did have the sales in japan. Has the worst of the impact been absolved by the economy been absorbed by the economy . Actually, yes. The impact is there. Greater than expected. The government did a lot of government measures to mitigate the impact. Still, the impact was strong. Government is doing a lot of point system to stimulate consumption. Sentiment, rightfully improved in october. We have to still worry about the impact on the consumption, but the severe impact is we can see in the and you fracturing sector at this stage. Paul what is the bond market telling you . We had the yield on the 10 year creeping back to zero for the First Time Since march. Yes, i think that was good to be honest. The bank of japans target is around 0 . Initially, i think the bank of japan was not expecting the yield into the negative territory. Since march, the yield has deepened significantly. Impact onade a lot of insurance and the banking system. Near 0 is good. Boj, i do not think is going to take action to deepen. I think it is good for boj. Shery we did see some strong capex investment in the july to september period. How confident are you this can continue to support the economy . Data, i on the current think it is dropping. In the capex investment october, december, we might see some drops as compares to the previous quarter. The whole year, i think capex investment remains strong and continues to be a major driver. Andnitely for the october december data, in addition to the decline of consumption, we might see a decline in capex investment. Shery where we are not seeing a decline is in the amount of debt the japanese government holds. With this massive stimulus measure again coming from the government, i wonder if this is something we should start worrying about. This gtv chart on the bloomberg showing the Balance Sheet is 104 of gdp. Yes. There. Ernment deficit is it is the biggest expenditure in history. We have to worry about it. This is the same from many other countries. Easing, ithe monetary would have a very low 10 year yield interest rate. Government is not really concerned about how to finance their deficit. The bank of japan already holding a half of government bond. At this moment, a lot of people are not very concerned about this fiscal deficit issue. Eventually, you have to cope with it. Paul i do need to get your thoughts on inflation and this 2 target. It just seems optimistic. Lets be polite. Is it time for the bank of japan to adopt a range, perhaps . Recommending a range. 2 , that is better. I think the bank of japan also knows it is difficult for them to achieve 2 . Timing matters. If the bank of japan says we want to introduce target range, and playing the boj may pursue a then theystead of 2 , can do everything they can do to get 2 . That creates i think the bank of japan knows that. They have to carefully think about when they will do that. Shery always great having you with us. Thank you. Former boj board member. Lets go to the first word headlines. Ore superpower australia expects prices to the client next year as the pickup in supply eases a global crunch. The Quarterly Report sees the average as 63. That figure is slightly higher than the september forecast. It would still be a 21 fall from this years average price. Thanetal valued to more 120 in july. New zealands Economic Growth accelerated in the thirdquarter, suggesting the slowdown is over. Thirdquarter gdp expanded to. 3 in line with expectations. Growth from the previous quarter beat estimates. The biggest boost came from the retail and i. T. Sectors. Hong kong is jumping into virtual banking with a shakeup of the system that may take as much as 30 of traditional revenue. Pilot is initially targeting 2000 ratio clients before gathering feedback ahead of an official launch. It was granted a license for a virtual bank in march. The de facto leader of myanmar said last weeks genocide case at the International Court of justice neglected key facts about the conflict. In her first public comments, she said the hearing failed to mention historic clashes between the army and militant separatists. She admitted violations of human rights but insisted that could not be considered genocide. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Thanks very much. We will take you live to capitol hill. Debatingeeing congress the two impeachment charges against President Trump. We will be nearing a vote soon. We will keep you in touch with what is happening in congress. This is bloomberg. A much more than 50. Is it enough to propel the market further . Paul plenty of Monetary Policy action for investors today. In addition to the bank of japan, we are standing by for decisions from Central Banks in asia and europe. South asia economy reporter joins us now. Saying they are taking a cautious approach. Is the cycle over . As you said, cautious approach. What the central bank has said is that they still have a bias for easing. There have been four rate cuts since july. What they are looking to see is the passthrough the cuts through the economy. We will close out the year leaving indonesian economies on track for the slowest pace of growth since 2017. Most economies would be pretty happy with that. For indonesia, that is kind of below historical march. They have some more historical marks. They have some more ammunition in the tanks. Rate cuts in the new year. Paul fiscal stimulus is becoming fashionable everywhere except australia. Can we expect to see some in australia in indonesia . To ecently spoke he made it clear they are going to frontload their fiscal stimulus in the first part of the new year. Bump up spending. As coal ministries to start spending early. They want to ramp up growth. Despite indicators, the lingering impact of the trade war, the government of indonesia s targeting growth for as much as 5. 2 . That would take it to levels not seen for close to a decade. They are ready to go. They are discussing raising the budget deficit cap. They have a cap of 3 of gdp. It is a legacy of the Asian Financial crisis. The fact they are having those discussions where the implement the raise or not remains to be seen. The fact theyre having the discussions means they are serious in growth. Shery how realistic is raising the cap . Im is there therein lies the problem. Bit of adeficit is a indonesia has long memories of the debt deficit. Whyas part of the reason the leader who ruled indonesia for 32 years, part of the reason that led to his demise. They are discussing it. There are many economists to think it is time who think it is time indonesia did consider raising it or and permitting a strategy where they can average the deficit over five years. Stick to the 3 limit. Years,d a 3 over five giving them the flexibility that they can check up spending and debt and borrowing to really really get the economy chugging along. Southeast asian economy reporter. The bank of england is widely expected to hold its key rates steady at its meeting later on thursday following Boris Johnsons decisive victory. Why are some traders boosting bets on the rate cuts next year . Kathleen hays is here. Lets start with the boe decision this week. Kathleen they are holding their policy steady again. You have to look low the surface. Below the surface. We this past year or two, know the bank of england has been concerned about the prospect of a hard brexit. The worst Case Scenario would be a deep recession. Victoryhnsons decisive has people figuring the u. K. Will not go crashing out in a hard brexit. He and the e. U. Will find an agreement within their deadline and will move ahead. With that in mind, you do not have to expect the worst Case Scenario. You can go into the bloomberg terminal and see the kind of scenario the boe has been looking at. At 0. 7ve their key rate percent. Seeing gdp at around 1 . Annual cpi is around 1. 5 now. We will be looking to see weather forecasts are when they come out of the meeting. The numbers so far are not the greatest but not so bad. You can take a look at the gdp and understand why so many the two key doves on the panel who have argued for rate cuts in the past are expected to argue for rate cuts again. There is one more boe board member who is expected to possibly jump on board with them. That would send a dovish signal if you got a third boe member arguing for that. We will be watching for the minutes afterward to see what they say. Particularly after Boris Johnsons victory. The bets that that the boe might have to cut back the rate have suddenly jumped. Why is that . Johnsonswhat boris victory giveth, Boris Johnsons victory taketh away. He is talking about limiting the transition period for the u. K. To leave the e. U. It is a possibility of a hard brexit back. Lets jump back into the bloomberg terminal. Now,chart shows you that the market is pricing in early one cut by the end of 2020. The odds of a cut in december of ont year jumped from 30 friday to 76 this week. Deutsche bank is saying the bank of england may feel inclined to cut its key rate in january. There is going to be probably no change in policy. What we here at the press conference etc. Could be what the market is going to focus on. Shery kathleen hays, our Global Economics and policy editor. To we will be talking about the expected historic step away from negative rates at 6 30 p. M. Thursday hong kong time. We take you again to capitol hill. We are seeing House Minority leader republican Kevin Mccarthy speaking. Any time, we are going to get nancy pelosi speaking again. And then, we are going to get the historic vote on two articles of impeachment. Donalder one passes, trump will become the third u. S. President in history to become impeached. We are going to be watching those boats very closely at the moment. No big surprises are expected. Two democrats are expected to. Efect from the party line that would be representative Collin Peterson of minnesota and Jeff Van Drew of new jersey. Proceedingss the tonight. Joining us over the phone from washington, d. C. Is todd mariano. Great to have you with us. It seems that the vote tonight is a given, impeachment will happen. Can we expect any big surprises in terms of defection from party lines . What should we be watching out for . Todd it is great to be with you. Thanks for having me. I do not expect the situation you described will change very much in terms of defections. Youre looking at a couple democrats in the house, perhaps the bigger and more interesting question is whether President Trump will get all 53 republicans in the senate to vote against convicting him when the senate holds his trial starting in january. I will say that is not necessarily assured. Given the relative power of one senator versus one representative in the house, i think it is potentially a stronger signal that there is at dissentme low level of within the Senate Republican conference on this question. Overall, i would expect Senate Republicans will mirror what their colleagues in the house are doing and vote unanimously to not convict President Trump. Shery what will democrats take away from this process if, as we are seeing right now, impeachment will happen, but impeachment will not go through during the senatorial. Two Democrats Gain throughout what to Democrats Gain thrall of this . Todd it is a great question. Differsachment of trump in many interesting ways from the impeachment of bill clinton. It is the case here democrats look at the process and take away very little political blowback at least on the National Level from having pursued this impeachment inquiry. That is against the consensus earlier this year, house Democratic Leadership this year among house Democratic Leadership. That is largely based on the historical analogue of president clinton. In the era we are in of hyper polarization, hyper partisanship, i think that impeachment could simply have the effect looking at the 2020 elections of simply firing up each partys base with a net effect being either very minimal or unclear. I think that also works for democrats because election day is still basically a year away. I think if votes were taken today, you might actually ca slight negative might impacty see a negative for democrats in places where the election will matter in swing states. With another 11 months to go until the u. S. Votes, both sides will be able to use this. Paul just briefly, how difficult was this decision to impeach for the democrats considering the evidence from the whistleblowers. If they had not done it, would they have appeared week . Todd i think that is really what drove speaker pelosis caucus to force her and the other Democratic Leaders into this process. They had sort of been the stopgap in pushing back against this pressure within the caucus to move ahead with impeachment. With a veryhat enthusiastic couple very enthusiastic, impeachment had been at some level and debated for some time during jumped term. During trumps term. There was a groundswell and rising baseline of support for impeachment such that pelosi and the other Democratic Leaders in the house. It is not 00 a. M. And bit 9 00 a. M. In beijing. Yvonne we are counting down to the moment of trade. David lets get to the top stories. Health democrats layout their case impeachment. Centralbank policy makes the headlines. Indonesia later today. Demand for loans in china has been rising but economy say that the data overstates the situation with the cash