Orecast indonesia decides later thursday while the boj starts a meeting. A straily markets have just open. Sophie, what are you seeing . Markets have just opened. Saw steepening for u. S. Bonds, pushing the u. S. 10year yield to a fiveweek high, and the kiwi dollar off about. 1 , reversing the earlier spike we saw on the back of new zealand hosting a faster than forecast gdp report on a quarterly basis, which may provide relief to the rbc. Nikkei Futures Holding steady. Were expecting a mixed session in asia as we have plenty of Rate Decisions on tap from indonesia, taiwan, hong kong, along with the boj meeting under japanese as we see stocks perhaps getting a little more love from investors, but not to be loved just yet. Investor view on japan is improving slightly with net 6 of global investors. Paul thanks for that. Lets check in on the first word news now with ritika gupta. Proposed budget for the next fiscal year will approach the equivalent of 1 trillion for a second straight year. Expenditure will rise more than 1 , almost 940 billion with Social Security thought costs about 1 3 of that. It highlights the drive to curb spending and a country with the developed world. The decision to hold the policy rate at 1. 25 percent was unanimous after two cuts earlier this year. Thailand has struggled to rein in the back, which climbed about 8 against the dollar over the past year. Slowdown may be over and the central bank may not have to keep cutting Interest Rates. Sagging 2. 3r gdp percent in line with expectations while growth from the previous quarter beat estimates. The biggest boost in the quarter i. T. From the retail and sectors. The International Monetary fund sent sharply lower amid continued weakness signaled by highfrequency indicators. Sayshief economist Business Sentiment has fallen and verbal consumption is slumping, adding to declines in the overall economy. The fund has forecast 6. 1 growth for india and will review its numbers in the new year. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Story, theur top impeachment debate rolls on as democrats lay out their case against President Trump. Lets go straight to washington and bloombergs politics reporter. Set the scene for us tonight in terms of those votes on the articles of impeachment and if we could see some surprises in terms of defections from both parties. We are nearing the end of a lengthy sixhour debate on the floor of the house regarding the impeachment of President Trump. He will be the third president in American History just the third to get impeached. It is almost certain to happen. House Democratic Leaders have a cushion of about a dozen votes. Even if they lose some, they are thel likely to succeed in boat and to impeach the president. The only defections we have seen so far and this has been consistent since the opening of the inquiry is two democrats. Collin peterson, who represents one of the most republican leading districts, and jeff andrew of new jersey, who was rumored to be joining the republican party. Notable one, former republican turned independent who is now a strong supporter of impeaching from stair fire. He says it is not about partisan affiliation but civic duty to uphold the constitution to support the impeachment of President Trump. That is what we are looking at right now. I would not expect any surprises at this point because the vast majority of republicans who signaled some openness to impeachment have already said they would vote against it, and Many Democrats who are thought to be potentially winnable, like ,endra horn for instance democrats who won and republican leaning areas last fall, have said they would support the impeachment of President Trump. This is sort of a done deal in the house. What happens in the senate . Mitch mcconnell seems to be implying theres zero chance the president will be convicted. What is next then . What happens next is after the house votes to impeach the president , it goes to the senate or a trial. The parameters of the trial are still being negotiated by mcconnell, the republican leader, and his democratic counterpart, Chuck Schumer. This could be as short as a couple of weeks or could drag on a little longer if theres no agreement to do it more quickly than that. The two Senate Leaders are also negotiating over if there will be more witnesses called at trial. Someone like mick mulvaney, the White House Acting chief of staff, who has made comments very relevant to the president s actions in ukraine, but Mitch Mcconnell has rejected those, so longld not expect a impeachment trial where a lot of witnesses are called. Republican leaders want to wrap this up pretty quickly and to your other point, Mitch Mcconnell has said he expects he is almost certain in his view the president the senate will acquit President Trump. Remember, 2 3 of the votes in the chamber are required to remove the president from office. 20ocrats would need republicans to join them in so far, not a single one has said they would do that. Couldis there a risk this backfire on democrats . We just got a headline from larry kudlow saying impeachment is probably helping the president politically. Theres not a lot of evidence of that. A brandnew poll out just about an hour ago shows the country dead even on impeachment. It. Favorite, 40 8 oppose one thing republicans have been saying pretty aggressively is that this will backfire, but does not a lot of evidence for that. Thats more Political Campaign talk at this point. Paul thanks for joining us. We will have more on the impeachment debate later. Sigman Global Advisor chairman Charles Myers will be here in the next hour and former White House Assistant press secretary joins us later. Coming up micron surged in late trade amid indications demand for memory chips is rebounding. That earnings analysis is ahead. All Major Chinese indices remain in overbought territory. We discuss that. This is bloomberg. Omberg. Paul you are watching daybreak asia. Chinese stocks are running again after months of slumber, sentiment buoyed by easing trade tensions as well as optimism about a revival in the domestic economy. Thanks for joining us. I want to jump straight into this chart on the bloomberg if we can. It illustrates what i was talking about. We see risk of chinese stocks, but also a suggestion we are due for some correction. One of the characteristics of this rally that weve seen over the last few weeks is the overall breadth in the market has been quite healthy. There has been a broadbased level of advances in the market, the market going up led by banks and technology stocks, so it is all very positive, and sentiment is definitely recovering on the domestic equity market, and its not too different from the set up we saw in january, february earlier this year. That brought pause with the tariffs earlier in may. In the shortterm, our technicals are quite positive leading to 2020. Paul in the background, theres an expectation that theres more stimulus and perform coming from the pboc as well. Is that your expectation . What would it look like . I think there is a focus on moving the economy towards a and aptiondriven model, bit of more focus back on social housing, so at those lower key cities, you kind of see the tax cuts have been through this year. Consumption has picked up, and gettinge is a focus on out to the masses. Shery where do you bet if you are betting on consumption rising in china . There has been a very active push from, say, Companies Like to expand into the lower east cities in china, and the reason is because ecommerce penetration in those cities is low and infrastructure has been delivery,to handle and there is a growing awareness of buying things online and morelets have become proliferated. Alibaba is well positioned in that kind of environment. We also like yum china, the largest Restaurant Business in managing the kfc and pizza hut brands, and they are exclusively growing. They have massive scale. Dvantages over their peers when you say you like china and the consumption story, do you prefer it over the u. S. And the u. S. Consumption story . Composite has been underperforming the s p 500 for years as we continue to see trade tensions. Can mask what is happening underneath the surface, and also, it does not have a lot of the stocks we mentioned. The big drag on the shanghai composite over the last couple large energybeen stocks, largecap banks. They have been dragging the index down. If you look at some of the more , theyconsumption plays have actually done very well over the last couple of years. They are wellpositioned into that chinese consumption story. Paul what is your outlook for the yuan at the moment . In the near term, we think the you want has the ability to appreciate, but in the medium to longer term, which i think is china is nowrtant, a current account deficit country, so it is competing in Global Capital markets like the u. S. To fund the current account, and that possibly could mean that over time, the you one depreciates over the more medium to longer term. In the near term, we think it will do well. Portfolio rebalanced back into chinese equities, chinese bonds, the dollar overall could have a bit of a softer patch against emergingmarket currencies as chinas currency also bounces back, so in the near term, we think it will appreciate, but mediumterm, longterm, we think those depreciation pressures still remain. Paul i want to get back to the call you made on alibaba. Is that strictly a retail consumption call . Is primarily an ecommerce platform in china, very well geared into the consumption story, but along the side, theres actually quite interesting businesses they are building alongside to complement that. We talked a lot about the cloud stories in the u. S. Alibaba has over 50 market share in the infrastructure as a service space. Theres alipay, which is the largest payments platform in china, which is also incredibly valuable, so there are quite exciting bits, which we think at the moment you are not really paying at lot four. Today, you are really buying the ecommerce business on fairly attractive multiples with 20 or 25 topline growth rates. Shery thanks for joining us again. Micron technologies jumped in late trade after beating earnings estimates and giving a strong forecast. Demand from memory the view ist demand for memory chips rising. And micron also said it could resume doing business with huawei. Su it has received all the necessary license to start supplying the products it already does to huawei and that will contribute to its bottom line. You may remember the suspension because a dent to the stock. Lets look at how micron is moving in extended trading. It has been up almost as much as. again, if you look at the year to date chart, you can see the stock has performed very well, and going into earnings, we saw two analysts raise their ratings on micron, saying revenue will billion or 4. 8 billion in the Second Quarter. Analysts had projected less than that. Also, wall street expects the market for both computer and smartphone components to return to where it was in the second half of the year. Micron appears to be supporting this. There is a potential bottom in memory chip pricing that is worth noting on this chart. This is the index for pricing. You can see microns stock has been improving. Notably, the ceo said in a statement that we are optimistic that microns fiscal Second Quarter will be the cyclical bottom for our financial performance, so all of this supports a very strong day for chips when the market opens. This strong outlook for micron comes as two analysts upgraded the stock this weekend. Morgan stanley insisting they got it wrong for the sector. Thats very interesting. One of the reasons they had put a cautious outlook on chips was the trade conflict between the u. S. And china. That has clearly changed. If you look at how the Semiconductor Index has performed look at that it is up almost 60 yeartodate to date. That is another reason Morgan Stanleys analyst admitted his cautious view on the group was clearly wrong given the stock performance. He think say and broadcom are among the companies along with in xp, which was razed in june, that will be doing well. Micron coming out with some very strong statements here. Again, they are seeing a rebound in demand. You so much for that. We are watching proceedings on capitol hill very closely as we await those votes on articles of impeachment against President Trump. We will bring you those live as they happen. Plenty more to come. This is bloomberg. Paul you are watching daybreak asia. Sam drucker millers embracing timidly. N, albeit he spoke exclusively with bloomberg about what could be the trigger for a downturn. If theres a political event, change of leadership in the white house that goes to some of the anticapitalists, i would think that would definitely trigger a bear market. If it would permanently end the bull market, i dont know, but that would trigger it. The other thing that would trigger it is if i the end of this year, we started to get enough inflation that the fed started tightening, and then, of course, the other thing is if we had a credit event. If you look at the credit thatts, its very obvious youve got really a lot of bad apples out there that are not being exposed because the interest costs are so low by the way, one of them being the u. S. Government. We are running a trillion dollar deficit. Why . Because we can. Professorhese geniuses think this is just a free lunch, but i would think it is one of those events. A political. B, change in fed policy because, you know, who knows when inflation turns . You could come up with a theory why it would. I kind of believe the secular force is a little bit down, but i could be wrong. The third is and this is more what happened in 2007, 2008 that the bubble just collapses on itself because things have just gotten so ridiculous. I dont think we are anywhere near there, but ive been wrong things seem tose happen after elections. Extraordinary year for investors. How did you do . Not as well as i would like. I just got into double digits. Evenweek, i would not have been able to say that. Im just too conservative in my old age. I was wellpositioned, but very timidly. I will leave it at that. Why are you timid . Youve got nothing to lose. I have a lot to lose. Thats one of the reasons im timid. I dont know when i was competing and managing other just am a very i competitive person, and i felt the compulsion to take risks. Im still a competitive person, but its either that or something about my age. I dont trust myself. Particular,year in ive just never trusted this administration not to do preclude meat would from taking positions that i just thought were safe and secure and all in risk, and i think unfortunately, a lot of people probably felt the same way. As you know, people have actually sold equities and put it into bonds this year. I did not do that. I was just timid about what i did do, but this administration, wondering where the hell the next bomb is coming from, just does not allow me to take some of the historic some of the positions i have taken historically. Its not just policy uncertainty. What would you call it . Policy uncertainty is a great term. One of the reasons im pretty sanguine right now is i think we are close enough to the election at least we can breathe for a few months that i think i dont expect any dramatic policy favorableverwhelm the backdrop of monetary stimulus in a decent economy. Lets get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. Boeings Credit Rating has been downgraded by moodys, which says the extended grouting of the 737 max and regulatory boosts the companys financial and operational risk. Moodys says a further downgrade could happen if the grounding runs into the second half of next year. Paul hsbcs outlook rating has. Een cut to negative by Moodys Moodys says profit will be subdued in the next few years but notes if the Restructuring Plan is carried out properly, the bank will benefit in the future. Broadcom rose on reports it is looking to offload one of its chip units. Dow jones says it is working with Credit Suisse to attract bids for its radiofrequency arm, something that would accelerate this move away from being simply a maker of semiconductors. It has revenue of more than 2 billion in the 2019 fiscal year. Coming up next, we will have the latest on the houses impeachment push as lawmakers gear up for historic boats. You are watching live pictures of capitol hill as President Trump could become the third u. S. President in history to be impeached. This is bloomberg. It takes time sometimes for the fundamentals to assert themselves. Some of our guests with their outlook for the full year. Global stocks are trading near alltime highs, but there may be a few nearterm catalysts given that we are seeing signs of overheating, as you can see in the chart right here on the terminal, and on wednesday, the s p 500 closing slightly higher after a recordsetting rally, trading in the highest range we have seen since 2017. Ignored stagnant Earnings Growth to focus on the fed and trade. Ritika protests continue in india as the controversial religionbased citizenship law. Eads to courts the court will next hear the case on january 22 and may decide then if the law should be halted. They do factor leader of myanmar says last weeks genocide case at the International Court of neglected key facts about revenge or conflict. In her first c