Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 20240713 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Asia July 13, 2024

She prepares his new years address. Is set to be ghosn in lebanon. One source tells us he fled japan ahead of a trial and financial misconduct charges. Markets in asia are winding down for the year. Australias equity market closes early this new year. Sophie has a final session how is the final session of the year looking . Sophie some pressure coming through. The aussie share market off 1. 2 , trimming the yeartodate gain but still set for the best year since 2009. Eminis little changed. Nikkei futures in singapore off by 1 and the bloomberg dollar index extending declines for a fourth straight session as the greenback is set for the Fourth Annual drop since 2010. Let switch out the board to check in on what markets are closed this new years eve. Indonesia, the philippines, and china closing along with south korea and japan entering a sixday new year holiday. We will be waiting to see whether we have yen like we saw earlier this year. Paul. Paul thanks very much, sophie. Breaking news right now. Uber and postmates tending to sue california to block this would strikethat at the heart of the Business Model of uber, relying on these independent contractors. That would classify those contractors as employees instead of just contractors so now we have uber and postmates announcing they will sue california to block that law regarding gig workers. Lets check in on the first word news and get over to viviana. Sources tell bloomberg earlier this week, carlos ghosn arrived in lebanon from japan. That is where he had been under house arrest since april. One person familiar with the matter says carlos ghosn fled japan. He holds lebanese and french citizenships. In november of 2018, he was arrested on charges of financial misconduct. He denies any wrongdoing and says he is a victim of a conspiracy. White house trade advisor Peter Navarro says trade one of the phase deal between the u. S. And china will be signed in early january. He told fox news it is a done deal the. South China Morning post says this weekend, done deal. The south China Morning post says this jongun, ahead of his annual speech to the nation. Kim has vowed to take a nupathe and Nuclear Talks if the u. S. Does not offer further concessions by the years end. The Trump Administration says it is watching for more provocation. We u. K. Is likely to drop its opposition to extend the transition past 2020. Times borisirish johnson is unlikely to honor his claim. He would rather die in a ditch that extend the brexit timeline. Legislation to deliver britains departure will be debated again in the new year. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Paul. Paul thanks, viviana. Datase manufacturing pmi is due in about one hour. Economists surveyed expect a slight retreat in december from this. Asia bring in our chief economics correspondent enda curran. Youan see a chart i am sure are familiar with. A big pop up in pmis that we saw last month. What is the expectation for this month . Enda even if it does slip a little, it is expected to remain above the 50 point level. Remember, it is probably going to cement or reinforce a trend for chinese Manufacturing Sector. We had a big runup in industrial output in november. That will help this pmi reading, and of course, we know that broader sentiment was Getting Better for chinese Manufacturing Sector anyway in the month because of the expectation ahead of the phase one trade deal that was announced between the u. S. And chinese government. One of the components to keep an eye on is the private sector. We know private Sector Investment remains quite weak sophie cme pickup in the index, that would suggest the stabilization is broadening out. Shery we have seen surprisingly good data out of china, including the numbers jumping more than 6 year on year. Can we say that perhaps they are close to escaping that trend we are seeing with Consumer Prices rising but factory deflation just continuing . Sophie enda i think that is it. It is hard to look past factory deflation, really. Only when they escape that can they say the sector is pulling itself. Falling prices of course course will compress profits, and they make the cost of servicing debt more expensive and theres a lot of pressure on some of chinas Indebted Companies at the moment. There is no doubt on the broader picture, it seems to be stabilizing somewhat. The consumer side of things is holding up and we know that now with this trade agreement that has been announced in december and is expected to be signed over the month of january, that will give the exporters a lift, knowing that there more tariffs in the near term. It is something of a stabilization for now, share, but i dont think there is a major rebound for chinas economy or anything like that. People are adjusting to a gradual pace of growth. We will get more details on what exact target the government is looking at 20 later in 2020. Paul the government slowly liberalizing its financial markets. What developments are we expecting to see in 2020 . Enda a broad theme is a gradual opening of the door. It is stepbystep, incremental. We have often had a lot of promise when it comes to china. This year, people are looking at some progress for Foreign Investors being allowed greater access to compete in chinas economy and financial markets, foreign insurers allowed more room. A gradualthing of opening up of chinas financial landscape. We had another incremental move this week of course with the decision to have the benchmark lendingnceled for and moved to the rates set by banks instead. It is all piecemeal. It fits into this broad theme about china moving in the direction it has to go to push through the kind of reforms the modern economy needs versus the economy that it was designing 20 to 30 plus years ago. Shery that new loan pricing regime youre talking about, we continue to see challenges in the chinese economy when you have funding that the pboc tries to offer banks but that does not necessarily translate to cheap loans for businesses. How is this new regime going to help that . Enda that is exactly it. Yes, there is the headline reforms. It moves away from the cumbersome side of things, moves away toward the marketbased mechanism, but the underlying actors in all of this continue to be mostly controlled by the government. The Banking System is mostly controlled by the government, as of course are the big state owned enterprises that dominate chinas economy. We know that one of the criticisms of chinas economy both from a competitive viewpoint and their own interests over the years, has been that china needs to shake up the state owned enterprise side of things. It is something they often talk about. We have not seen any real concrete signs of a firm push recently. That might change in the year ahead, but it is one of the reasons why people are perhaps putting a little bit of caution on the reform to the benchmark rate, because ultimately, it is a step in the right direction, but it is only one step and much more needs to be done to shakeup the grip of the state for the whole economy. Shery enda curran, thank you so much. Still ahead, commodities from crew to copper our set to end 2019 on a high. We will discuss later this hour. Paul im next, we will be joined by the markets strategist to talk about the outlook for the new year. This is bloomberg. Shery this is daybreak asia. I am shery ahn in new york. Paul i am paul allen in sydney. Asian stocks are beginning to drop. They delivered spectacular returns across all asset classes. Joining us now is the asian market strategist. Thank you so much for joining us, so lets start with the developments we have seen today on trade. Peter navarro saying the deal is putting much in the bag. We are hearing reports that it may be signed early next month, so can you see more upside for markets in asia once this phase i deal is all done . Good morning. Thank you for having me. I do see that we heard the news lee oharauggesting hu will be in the u. S. We do see a little bit more steps in the progress in terms of getting the phase one trade deal coming through. The market price that in. Course, into the new year, this kind of support coming through from the expectations of the signing is likely to carry out. I think to a large extent as well, they want to bring confidence in the market, although we have to see that in the numbers in the coming months as well. A good 2020 perhaps. Paul for chinese equities, would you expect them to continue the climb or perhaps at a slightly slower pace than we saw in 2019 . Enda we think the chinese we think the chinese equities are expected to continue into the first half of 2028 on the somethis recovery, signs of stabilization. This helps accelerate a little bit that recovery mode. Into 2020, i do see chinese equities expected to really have improvement. Of course, into the second half of the year, i would be a little bit concerned as to how the growth itself is going to shape up in terms of the expectations. Evidently, we are seeing chinas Growth Numbers decelerating. China may slow down pace. In that sense, i would feel more caution into the second half of the year. Perhaps for china equities itself. Shery what about Hong Kong Market base hong kong equities . We continue to see attention with the protests ongoing in the city. This summer has been phenomenal for the hang seng index. What are we expecting for 2020 . Shery, i would say that for the hong kong equities, what we are seeing for hong kong, at thet the expectations of phase i trade deal, i think the performances are january. Think we have seen the case continuing domestic issues evidently coming through. A bit of an item affecting the hong kong index. The rest of the asia region. Kong is expected to benefit pairwise. Ise compared to the other regions paired certainly want to watch. I think in terms of the asia region itself, with the u. S. China settling on this issue itself, i think we will see things improve from here. Seeing borrowing costs jumping in hong kong. The dtv chart and the bloomberg showing the one month high again above the onemonth library. This is of course propelling the hong kong dollar. The best month since 2003. The concerns we mentioned. Jingyi i do think that for the hong kong dollar at least, we see it. It helped us out the fact that the u. S. Dollar softened slightly to the end of the year. I see movement to the new year as well given the situation. It is helping asian the fx itself in general. Perhaps we could be seeing it coming through. At least with the hong kong dollar to have that as well. Paul to your point on the greenback, we have a chart in the bloomberg terminal that illustrates what you are talking about. We are seeing quite a bit of weakness for the bloomberg dollar spot index towards the end of this year. What are the implications here for the yuan . Does this add to the case for some strength there . Jingyi so paul, evidently into the yearend itself, we have already seen the dollar yuan itself trading below the sevenfigure target. The risk on has been spreading across the markets. Really helpful in seeing the chinese yuan. At the same time, of course, we are seeing optimism setting and for how china may be conducting the support for the economy. In terms of the requirements of the benchmark rates itself. Expectations for what they may have to announce in terms of their further plans and opening up. We have to see the yuan strengthened against the u. S. Dollar further into 2020 itself, but once again, just wanting to bring back this view in terms of how much further it could go. Quite a bit of a strong support for the offshore yuan. See thating to materialize and it certainly depends on how the chinese indicators, the pmi these are the items we will be looking quite closely to. Once again, the service. Yearend. Seeing the is perhaps a little bit higher from where we are for the dollar yuan. At this point in time, it is likely to carry on into at least january itself and the expectations for the signing of the trade deal itself. Drivenm and sentiment currency itself. The in terms of liberalization you described, bloomberg is running a story about the expectations for the liberalizations. The financial industry. Looks like small steps for insurance. Are you seeing some opportunities here . Jingyi so in terms of chinese teams lookings into 2020. I do think that certainly comes true as one of the items as well. This liberalization itself is expected to help to see the Financial Sector actually bringing favor into the new year as far as the expected chinese stocks. How it might perform on the back of this trade improvement is one of the key things. Shery what do you expect for foreign interest . In the futures market, theres so many restrictions and china including those making unhedged thats against the market. Is it really worth it for these Foreign Companies to actually try their luck in the Chinese Market . So, share, i think at least for shery, i think at least for Chinese Markets, what we have seen is the fact that the msci inclusion is helping to enable the inflows and interest into the Chinese Market. I do think it is an improving sign. Based on what we have seen so far, there is a little bit of optimism, at least we could be seeing a little bit of this increase. In the coming mid to longterm itself. Shery jingyi pan thank you so much for that. Ideation market strategist. And of course you can get a , roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in todays edition of daybreak. Bloomberg subscribers can go to dayb on their terminals and its also available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. You can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets you care about. This is bloomberg. Shery huawei says it will overhaul its executive ranks next year as Revenue Growth slows on the impact of u. S. Sanctions. Chinas Biggest Technology company missed its internal targets, reporting an overall 18 rise in sales this year. For more analysis, lets bring in our asian tech editor, edwin chan. 18 growth in revenue does not sound so bad when you have the Worlds Largest economy at you. How did they manage this . Edwin i think it is a combination of preparation and overestimated that the the impact white house blacklisting would have on huawei. I think the company had been stockpiling inventory and developing local alternatives to American Technologies since its counterpart, zte, came under the same sanctions a year prior. And also, i think a lot of u. S. Businesses with Global Operations managed keep supplying huawei, enabling it to keep turning out its product because of the 25 rule, which allowed them to these sanctions. Is problems from 2019 inspired by the u. S. Are unlikely to go away. What is the outlook for 2020 . Edwin there are some indications that the americans would escalate attempts to kind of contain huawei as a corollary to u. S. Chinese trade tensions. But then also, you have signs that there may be some sort of detente in the trade war, so its really hard to predict, but i think what came across quite clearly in todays release, you know, the rotating chairman said it does not matter what goes on between washington and beijing. Always going to prepare for the going tohuawei is prepare for the worst and that is what investors have to focus on as well. Paul bloombergs asia tech editor, edwin chan, and hong kong. Thanks for joining us. Thats get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. Hasese restaurant chain cornerstoneur investors including blackrock for its planned ipo in hong kong. The offering is expected to raise as much as 280 million. It operates more than 300 restaurants in 39 cities across china according to the prospectus file at the Stock Exchange. Asry mitsubishi usta groups an impairment charge of 2 billion in the Current Quarter risks a controlling stake of indonesias bank. The need for a chart has been looming ever since the completion of its takeover in april. That triggered a sharp retreat in shares as they were removed from msci indices. Talkscommerce bank is in to buy an activist funds stake. That is according to people close to it. They say it could announce an agreement to buy 7. 5 stake in the coming days or weeks. They had rejected an earlier offer as too low. Lets get you to some live shots of sydney harbor. Bushfires continue to burn around the city. If you are on the bloomberg terminal, you can follow the progress of the fires. Many of them burning across many states in australia. You can go to tliv and get the latest there. As for the markets, it is a nasty day to end the decade. The asx off right now at all sectors lower. The only right now. All sectors lower. The broader index off by 1. 3 . The asx will close early today. This is bloomberg. When it comes to using data, everyone is different. Which is why Xfinity Mobile is a different kind of Wireless Network that lets you design your own data. Choose unlimited, shared data, or mix lines of each and switch any line, anytime. Giving you more choice and control compared to other top wireless carriers. Save up to 400 a year when you switch. Plus, unwrap 250 off a new samsung phone. Click, call or visit a store today. First word headlines. Phase one of the trade deal between the u. S. And china will be signed in early january. This is according to the white house trade advisor, Peter Navarro. He told foxnews it is a done deal and the agreement is in the bag. The south China Morning post the this weekend, le chinese premier will travel to washington to sign the accord. While selling off 85 billion you rupee of 2021. It is the bank second socalled operation twist option and it aims to bring down longterm yields and flatten the yield curve to ensure better monetary transmission. For the third time in performance, the u. S. Pending home sales cli

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