Is not seeing justice. Lebanon, theen of country that has an extradition agreement with japan. According to incoming chief naval. Close to 2 . It is supposed to be symmetrical or not. Spain, the Prime Minister is signaling growing confidence he will be able to form a government but he still needs the backing of the catalan separatist party. Besuccessful, sanchez will creating the First Coalition government since the 1930s. In australia, thousands of stranded tourists are on the beaches. Is turningk smoke the morning sky pitch black. Two more people have died taking the death toll to 12. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Matt . Wright in london with your first word news. S gauge of china Manufacturing Sector held steady. The manufacturing pmi index remained at a reading of 50. 2 all the outlook for new orders on the trade front, the white leading china hock Peter Navarro says the phase one deal is in the bag that he declined to confirm a report that chinese emissaries will travel to washington this weekend to sign the agreement. Carsten brzeski is still with us from our frankfurt bureau. What is your take on the trade deal so far . What do you expect in 2020 . Is that the funny thing even though we dont know the details, it has brought some relief to market and the economies. Week will be signed this or in general, it will bring further relief to world trade and that is what we see in these chinese pmi numbers. It could help that we see a bottoming out of the Manufacturing Sector of global trade so we will then start to see a gradual recovery of the Global Economy. In the course of 2020. On the other hand, the phase one deal suggests there will be more this generale and conflict between the u. S. And china will continue. The other risk for 2020 is whether the white house will put its eye on the eu and whether we will get tariffs on european automotives. This is a clear possibility so therefore, even with the phase one deal, the overall trade conflict idea will not disappear. Matt and the fact that a lot of european cars are built in the u. S. And would then not be subject to tariffs. Taking a bigger hits from the chinese tariffs because bmw exports a lot of their big suvs from the u. S. To china. I wonder what you think President Trump will do next year. On the one hand, he could try to bring a swift end to the trade thelict in order to boost economy before the election in 2020. As you know, americans like to the for an incumbent if economy is doing well. On the other hand, americans like politicians to take a hard line when it comes to the relationship with china or it seems so from both sides of the aisle. And he could go that route in order to win more votes. What do you expect . Carsten i expect him to stay where he is right now. To continue with tough language towards china. This is in the bag. The Election Campaign as he is the president to have achieved a trade deal with china. Parliament isan spending more on nato. I dont think it makes sense to start a new conflict in the election year. Can see what iou have achieved from a for me again and i will make more deals after the election. Matt in terms of the economy in europe come it has taken a big hit not just because of the of thers but as a result global trade simply slowing down due to the trade war. The you expect the european economy to pick up as well as manufacturing slowly recovering in 2020 . Carsten we have a strange discrepancy and the european economies. Strong, solid domestic demand and labor market but a manufacturing slump. It depends on this phase one dl. A bit of relief coming for the Global Market in time to bring a rebound in the Manufacturing Sector and then you avoid the crumbling of the labor market. And we see a rebound of the eurozone economy. If the rebound of manufacturing takes too long, i think we will see a bit of a crumbling of domestic consumption and the labor market and we would only see a rebound of the eurozone economy in the second half of 2020. In either case, the problem is that any rebound will either be a soft rebound, when we talk about alphabet soup, not elmo but alphabet soup, the shape of the economy looks like a l or a j shape recovery. , we will keep you with us here on this new years eve. Carsten brzeski out of frankfurt. Up next, we will look into the german Economic Outlook for 2020 and zero in on what that manufacturing crisis, especially the auto sector, has done. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to the european open. This is Bloomberg Markets. And matt miller in berlin we are just about 20 minutes away from the open which will happen in most markets. Not in frankfurt. It is closed today. There is trading in london and paris for a short time. On this new years eve holiday. Let us get the Bloomberg Business flash and for that we go back to laura wright in london. Jp morgan once full control of its futures in china. 49 to 100 . The first global lender taking advantage of the nations opening market. Tesla took a hit yesterday after an analyst said they may miss the target. It has delivered below the companys goal. The chinese electric carmaker it is still warning it is running low on cash. It says it does not have enough money to continue operating for another 12 months. Chinas car market has been slowing and has had to cut thousands of jobs. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Thank you, laura wright in london with your flash. Could germany be entering a lost decade . A 2020 rebound could be in the cards. Carsten brzeski, chief economist at ing germany is still with us. How come we do not see a bounce back in this economy . As chinas economy seems to be stabilizing, it is not a bad picture for the u. S. In 2020. And there are so many reasons to buy a new car, why isnt germany going to be saved in 2020 . Carsten i think the german problem is one that we first had a cyclical slowdown 10 years after fantastic growth. We are also facing structural problems with the economy. The cycle needs the structure and the structure suggests there have been has been too little investment in the last 10 years. This is the transition towards electric vehicles and towards more people doing car sharing. Sector,t the automotive germanys nokia but it is a sector lacking growth. It is now going through a longer period of change and disruption meaning the German Economy which to some extent 7 of the total German Economy drives on automotives directly and indirectly. This shows the manufacturing slump is hurting the German Economy. And now is still the time for germany to start investing and do new structure reforms. If not, the next decade the next 10 years could be a lost 10 years for the German Economy. Zero,there is no year this is not the end of the decade yet. I have an amazing chart. I just went through my producer hillarys charts from the past. Average car sales in white. U. S. Car sales. It is key that not hugely important. The amazing thing is the blue line which is the average age of the passenger cars on the road. To theinues to rise up end of this year. The average age is more than 12 years. You think that people want to go out and buy a new one if their car is 12 years old the Higher Quality of modern cars means you can keep them longer, i wonder, is the extremely low Interest Rate situation both in the u. S. And around the world where a lot of times rates are negative, you can get 2 or less to buy a car here in germany, is that helping or are those loans not getting approved . Carsten i think it should help. The lifecycle story should normally help but then there comes disruption all change. What kind of car should you buy . Should you go for diesel . Otherwise, you have stories about the new Diesel Engine be in cleaner than some gasoline engines. Should you go for electric . If you go for full of electric, should you go for a plugin . People are delaying the decision. It will be pentup demand in the coming years but it is hard to tell when people start to read buy a new car. Matt morning for viewers, im going to editorialize for a minute. My recommendation would be a diesel hybrid. I think Diesel Engines are cleaner now and you have that 48 volt electric system which i think is an amazing component in the engines. Carsten, i know you have just gone fully electric so i applaud your decision. To make theing world a better place. Happy new year, carsten brzeski. 9,000,000 that is how much this decade bestperforming asset has gained since 2010. We will talk about bitcoin itss spectacular spectacular rise. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to Bloomberg Markets, this is the european open and we are just about 11 minutes away from the start of cash trading. Futures are pointing down. Trading will be incredibly light today as it is new years eve. Many markets across europe including here in germany and in italy are closed today and many markets including in the u k and france will close early after trading a little bit in the morning. Watch out for some gyrations because of that in but unity. If in the throes of this old ts early bull marke stages, and purchase and unknown digital token and watch it grow beyond your wildest dreams, you would surely call that person crazy which would make sense but bitcoin has just has done just that. The largest digital token has posted gains of more than 9,000,000 since july 2010. Nothing else even comes close to reading it. Will see there was a long nothing else even comes close to beating it. Hong lam joins us now from kong. You have been covering this very closely for a long time. Skeptics even more than supporters. More dramatics than the fight over tesla on twitter. What do you make of the incredible rise of bitcoin . It really is dark when you take a look it really is stark when you take a look at the chart you pulled up. Youre talking about less than 10 men 10 years. You start from zero. If you got in at the very first transaction, 10,000 bitcoin for two pieces. Izzas. Way,u point out, along the bitcoin picked up a lot of skeptics. A lot of skepticism out there. A lot more institutional scrutiny and regulatory scrutiny. If you buying now will you get another 9,000,000 . It seems unlikely but crazier things have happened. Matt i am sure you know that i onn the coin for two as i didor two weeks for a special report. It was difficult to find groceries and gas stations that would take it but it worked to some extent. It never really picked up as a way to do transactions. There are famous stories of people buying a lamborghini with bitcoin but it still does not work as a daily current c. Thatere any expectation someday i will be able to walk down to him condone it and pick is there any expectation that some day i will be able to walk down to Dunkin Donuts and pick up a box of cruellers . Inventedn it was first , there was an argument that it pose to replace the u. S. Dollar. Now, a lot of people that are it coin evangelists many art opening it because they think it will rise in value. When you talk about cryptocurrencies that could be used for transactions like what you are describing, there are other options and there are other competitors being developed. When you take a look at some of the countries where they are on the forefront of Digital Transactions including china, we are seeing the Chinese Government is working on cryptocurrencies of their own which is more likely that you uyingp seeing someone b something using those currencies. Hopefully, they have quit smoking but i get your point. Yourlam, thank you for comments. It is the last trading day of the year. Let us see where you wouldve made the most money in the european equities market. Joining us now is sam olmstead. From our equities team. 2019 has been incredible. Where have you seen the biggest gains . As you mentioned, it has been a very good year in some respects. In part because last year with such a bad year. What you have seen for the most part is individual winners. Withs been a year marked trade wars, brexit, major macro events. Talk to mee about the regions, about the sectors, the names who have been the big winners and losers of 2019 . Am the biggest winner is all hes Europe Altice europe. Their shares have more than tripled. And then a company like gregs they have also done very well over the course of the year. Matt sam, thank you very much. A huge soccer fan. It has been great watching your coverage this year as well. Some of the most valuable startups in the us could be ready to go public in 2020 according to a new analysis by amkm. Be talking about the startups in just six months time. Stripe. Airbnb. Interesting about this report is that they say the fourth year of a u. S. President term is typically a brush to go public so possibly in the next six months. , thanknnmarie hordern you for those stories that we will likely cover in the next year. Formergreat escape automotive giant carlos ghosn please to lebanon claiming he was held hostage by japans rigged legal system. His words, not mine. Ending on a high. Peter navarro says a trade deal with china is in the bag. This as the countrys Manufacturing Sector grows more in december. And a rally to remember. A bumper decade for global stocks. Oil is poised for its best year since 2016 and bitcoin is up 9,000,000 since 2010. Let us get to the Bloomberg Open 30 seconds ago with annmarie hordern. Good morning and happy new year. European futures ahead of the open arrows to the red. Ftse 100 down. Dax future down. Germany is closed for the day. Italy is closed as well. Ae ftse market will be closed half day. A lot of markets around the world are closed given it is the new years holiday. Volumeseeing light today. Given the holiday. We are not expecting a lot of volatility or movement. The euro stoxx 50 is relatively muted. Foreign exchange, fourth day lower for the u. S. Index. Opening up down 0. 2 . Day. To be a risk off nothing tells that picture more than the wheel in front of me. All down in the red today. The nordics markets are closed as well as italy and germany. What corporates are moving this morning . Are movingporates this morning . Matt i will show you. 100ave 200 stocks down with gaining an almost 300 not trading today. Imperial brands adding the most points to the yandex right now with a gain of 1 . Maybe new years eve play. A lot of people that do not normally smoke may grab one tonight. Endi is a gain or that that cannot be explained by the holiday. Take a look at the losers. Hsbc is down as well as astrazeneca. Smithkline is also falling. The British American tobacco is a loser today. That may not be why we see Imperial Brands gaining. European markets in general lower but very thin trading. Asian stocks drifted lower as well. Most were closed. Japan was closed as was taiwan and south korea. A lot of european markets are closed today including here in germany as well. We had some interesting Economic Data out of asia. A gauge of chinas Manufacturing Sector, Holding Steady in december adding evidence that the worlds secondlargest economy is stabilizing. The manufacturing pmi index remains at 50. 2 all the outlook for export orders expanded for the First Time Since may of 2018. Joining us now is nick wall. Thank you for coming on set today. Let me first ask you about the year that was in what you expect in 2020. Nick good morning. It has been a great year for many stocks. Most investors have seen pretty good returns. Forecast is the fairly monday. There are not too many people who are speculating that the will improve. A lot of the flows we have seen predicatedave been on this environment. The actual Money Movement this year 800 billion of flow. We are interested if that begins to unravel somewhat. While we cannot disagree with the consensus for low growth and low inflation, we are looking to contract of to see if some of this materializes. Matt where do you see yields then as well as growth and inflation at the end of 2020 . Nick the u. S. 10 year, we could get to around 250. I think a lot of people have given up on the inflationary dynamic. We have not seen that come through and we have not seen the link between higher wages and lower unemployment. The labor markets are still tight. You could see some of those measures start to come through particularly global returns. Returndo get the global ,s well as the deglobalization we could see some of that return premium. And yields could be a little bit higher. While we think the fed is on hold, they want to depoliticize their central bank decisions. Somean start to see reflationary believes getting priced in there. Matt we are going to talk about the fed in a moment. Map ima pretty killer excited to show you. With predictions for 2020. First i want to get back to the china story. You were talking about the pmi there as well. What do you think about the phase one deal . Itre is a lot of speculation could be signed this weekend. If we get Real Movement on trade reconciliation, how important is that for the Global Economy . Nick it is hugely important. The u. S. Is a fairly close economy. It has not been massively impacted but it has had an effect on the rest of the world. A strong dollar. If you do get a phase one trade deal, i dont think that is the ultimate solution. There is still going to be a strategic dispute going on between the u. S. And china. We see it as more of a trade truce. There is a lot of pentup demand capex thatment in has been on hold. It has almost gone far enough on tariffs. It may give businesses more confidence to ramp up production again. That is what you can insinuate by looking at the china pmi data last night. The ph