R erdogan. Rglobal, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Shery live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, im shery ahn. Live in toronto, im jon erlichman. We are joined by our bloomberg and Bnn Bloomberg audiences. Shery xdxdmy here are the top s from around the world. The first trading day of the year and we are off to a bullish start. A look at the 2020 for currencies and equities. Ghosn5as great escape. New details on how the former head of nissan ande1 renault haa daring escape to lebanon. Deepens inre crisiso7o australia. We have the latest. Jon we are off to a bullish start in 2020. The stock markets in the u. S. nr hitting alltime highs intraday trading. The s p haj . H itsi] test perfore since 2014. A couple of stores and helped to fuel stocks overnight, the story out ofco china wi4 wjjusrturity coming into the chinese market, and the ongoing optimism surrounding u. S. China trade open to fuel equities. Incontinue to see interest some of the bestperforming groups, including technology. The nasdaq isnre1 up. 7 today. One stock in particular we are watching is tesla. 100,u look at the nasdaq it has easily been the bestperforming ; v hr the last six months. It is getting anothere1 list toy target price for the shares to 515. Not the highest on wall street but pretty close. This move coming ahead of the allimportant fourthco quarter e ecole delivery numbers which the market will be watching closely. Shery e1 you mentioned the chine liquidity injection. Okthat was not that much of a surprise, we knew something was coming. E1xd the only surprise was it s really fast. Youqco are looking at Chinese Companies right now. This is theq5oc Golden Dragon chinese index. E1chinese firms like baidu, alibaba, the heaviestxdu stocks on theco inde1 othersq. That cashu about that rrr cut, the amount that lenders must hold in reserve. Qthe pboc unleashing about 115 billion in foreign. E1this doesnt necessarily affet u. S. Companies, but the idea that centrale1 banks wi have your back. E1t certainly a theme that we wl watch heading into the new year. Flavors including menthol. Got innservative groups the president s year and told him that if he bannedzv flavord vaping products, he may suffer in the elections next year. Xdthat led to a lot of back and forth in the administration. Itxd culminated last monthnr wih this extraordinary summit at the white house, trump invited reporters to come into the room and watch the two sidesnr battle it out in front of him. Kind of a remarkable scene, from our perspective as journalists. Has issued thiso guidance hopingfa to strike a middle ground. Ops, which the president was concerned about, would not be affeclv u understand some of them go to these shops and custom mix their own flavors. This guidance would not affect that activity. This ise1xd mainly aimed at pros vaping devices, and competitors who so prepackaged pods of flavored vaping chemicals. comost of thoset flavors will e banned, except mental and tobacco. Stoppeduue1l voluntarilyw3co selling a lot of their flavors, so how significant is the move . The former fda commissioner said on twitter that this isxd not a significant e1a lot of teenagers wille1 just which to the menthol product. Is already theul 9 okit shouldnt hurt their busins much at all. This guidance may be fairly vapingtual5a at fightinge1e1 by children, if you believe the former fda commissioner. So much forthank you joining us on the latest with this vaping story and the fda setting a temporary ban on some flavors. Lets discuss the markets, the start of a new year, the first trading day of 2020. We will look at a outlook for the currency markets. With us now is erik nelson. E1also with us3w is sarah ponc. Xdthank you both for being here. Today . , what are we seeing e1it seems to be broadly positi, at least for now. Ise1. It t at the same time, you see some allocation into bonds. , bonds, gold, the japanese yen. Ct its an interesting take awa. R seeing areas of the market are if you look at todays performance, match up with the best perfoz9 pretty similar. Top, financials performing pretty well, industrials. E1those were all sectors that we at the top of the leaderboard in 2019. E1coone joining the pack is ene, one of the worst performing. So we are seeing thatnr emergene of thoseco losers, including energy, starting to perform. Obviously, a low rate environment has bee, one of the helpers for equities. nierik nelson, you have to make your own forecasts on where currencies go on based on what we may see from the fed. Nbwhat is your thinking ace begin the new year . This point, it seemvs like the dollar is slipping but not falling yet. Place or dollar weakness but we are not quite there. Eeu of factors will help the dollar move lower. One would be growthxd globally, starting to improve, initially. We are seeing the first signs of that. R in 2019, especially u. S. China trade tensions are starting to receive. and finally, the vet said we e not going to hike rates under e1almost any circumstances, so that spells dollar weakness in our view. Shery u this. risk onu havens like the japanese yen rally. Bloomberg on the showing the dollaryen is barel clinging to its 100day moving average. I wonder what happensco in january. Last year, we have alpe1co dolln flash crash, and there seems to be some seasonal pattern there. T u erik w3 in addition to that, we have to think abouti] is u. S. China trade s i lc h lc probably not. E1local growth is also not out f the woods. Yen holding on to its games last year. You need to see more concerted moves higher in globo,i lc h l clearso need to see more signs of these political risks are receiving more permanently. Jon l8noxdxd sarah, rg that lotco is we have seen the best performance of the s p last year since 2013, and in your own reporting, you speaking,t, generally when you have a big move, that is typically followed bye1 some buying activity. There has been a lot of research put out and what happens in the stock market after a stellar year, if you only look at price gains and returns. Any idea of Global Growth or recession to the side, what happens after a very strong year in price gains . What it typicslny shows if you have a gain of about 25 ,q as we had in 2019 for the s p 500, you typically dont match those gains. Read alls a havee1 gain of 25 , but if you look atr the top years for the s p 500, what came in the year that followed was still Pretty Healthy returns. R the top years, in the years that followed, only three were lower. Fal8nowhen you are looking at 9 year and forecasts from wall street strategists. The average game is only 3 to 4 . That is modest, but still expecting positive returns after a 29 q gain, total return of 31 for the s p last yeaze shery e1 talk aboute1 some of te other currencies when it comes to 2020. We just talked about the japanese yen. 30q per dollar, cospeculation that the bank of thailand is intervening now. Are those some of theu we will have to be careful of i lc h lc i think the thai baht is wellpositioned going into next year. E1as we see the reflation tradeq take place, global currencies the currencies that will do worst are the highyield spurs, like the turkish lira. The thai baht me perform better. The euphoria we have seen, 1 of this of late, have prompted a debate between the bulls and bears. Next couple of months in the stock market . Optimism has gone fromco extrmm bearishness to what should be a sense of euphoria. If you look at survey measures, rbc has a survey of their institutional investorskoko extremely bullish at this point. If you look at etf flows, we have seen that shiftpu the qahare for the first three quarters of. 19, we had koseen those into bond funds without stepping those into equitia2aetaipi lc h lc that switched in the fourth quarter. At the endzv of the year, we sw more inflows into stockr than bond,ands. E1that is only when you look at etfs. Many people say it looks like we have seen optimismct come backo the market, but if you lookr etf and mutual fund flows together, the realityni is we he seen many outflows from equity funds at large, including equity funds come into bond funds. Manye1 investors see this as a reason that we can move on further from here. In many outlooks i have q im surprising a see a pullback or correction in the first half of the year. We have seen such a turn upward. Q. U9, the number of of days since 1995. So any volatility could be expected. In terms ofk nelson, other wildcards you may be watching in the currency world coin 2020, we have not even tald about brexit. Oke1certainly along with the tre story, one to be watching in the year ahead. The pound will be interesting, indeed, like last year. The brexit environment this yea] is actually going to resemble the environment we saw last year as well. We will be dealing with another deadline, this time december 2020, the end ofcicuapsition talks, multiple rounds of over whether the date will be extended. There will also be, in the interim, questions over u. K. Economic performance, and the bank of england. Year. 9m seeee÷ thisco boriscoe1 bounce,r dead cat bountkipi lc h lc expect moree1 volatility in the pound ahead. W3we have a forecast close to 10 next year this year, which partially reflects our dollar that there is a lot of weakness for the pound to work out. Given the environment last year, reasonable tonir risk to the forecast to pound. Jon plenty to watch in the year ahead, thank you, erik nelson. Sarah ponczek also joining us to talk about the markets. Coming up, a music box, privaj jet, and some help from lebanon. Theories are swirling about how carlosxd ghosnco led japan while awaiting trial. New details are next. This is bloomberg. Jon you might call it ghosnrq great escape. New details are emerging about how the former head of nissanweree1 no mayxdv able to flee japan while awaiting trial. Htturkish authorities have detained seven people including a pilot, investigating their role in ghosnsq escape to lebanon, which included a stop in istanbul. David welsh joins us now on the story. E1we have talked about how this seems like thew3 plot of a major motion picture. What stands out the most to you . David he has been out of japan r what is fascinating to me is the fact that lebanon has said he entered the country illegally. P,u they will protect him, maybe have him try to there. They pushednb to have him trien lebanon a week before his escape. 5ae1okthe lebanese, even thougy have this interpol warrant saying ghosn is a fugitive, he areayingr saying he is there legally. It will be tough to get the for the japanese to get ghosnco. I]okit will be an interesting s. nithe rest of it, you are right, maybe it is a movie. Jobmaybe called the japanese at some point. Tales about 4jp ge musical hat heni was smuggled in with. Red line beinglp drawn across the screen from tokyo to istanbul, then to lebanon. This is reallyw3 crazy movie stuff. Impact that his arrest has been having on the company is pretty great. This chart on the bloombergw3 showing how nissan and renault, their market cap falling since ghosns downfall. E1how challenging is it for ther new ceo, who just became the head last month . The stock has certainly taken a hammering over this. The market was not so enamored with ghosn in his last year or so with the company. In the u. S. Market, which is a profitable market for nissan. nrthe company had other problem. The product line had gotten stale. They had pushed too hard withlpo rental fleets and that sort of thing, which hurt the brand and their pricing. There were some operational under the hood before this happened. May not have been lighting it up running the company in the last year or two, but there was such instability, it has taken this long to find to the ceo distraction, that pa the market is reacting to now. n thank you for that update on the sun. Plenty more to come. This is bloomberg. Shery q as wildfires devastate parts of australia, datalp shows the nation has never suffered a hotter or dryer your than 2019. Joiningco us for more is brian sullivan, whos been following the story. September. How unique has this year been . E1 your normal fire season starts in the summertime, which is only a couple weeks old, but this started at the end of their winter in september. That is what surprised people, the extent, the ferocity of it as well. About 140 fires consuming an area about twice the size offani maryland. Hings that really stands out with the situation in realtime like thii , a major fire that gets bigger, creates its own weather. What has been your take away from whats been happening on brian thats exactlyt right. The heat creates thesei] updraf, you get these massive t e1thunderstorms, and then the warm, dry air moves out in front of it, drawing out the clandscape, so you have landscapes ande1 lightning hitting these really dry. are, starting more fires, starting the prime ministers government champion the coal industry. How out of touch is this making brian hes been getting a lot m5, when he goes to places that have been burned r video of people heckling him almost as he comes to offer them e1solace. Xdthey started to yell at him as well, thee1 press has been holdg his feet to the fire. Jon brian, thanks for the i lc cowe will continue to track the story. Xdbrian sullivan joining us on e latest on the wildfires. Know,ted to let youi] before we go to break, spain is set to get a new government after the acting premier persuaded the catalan separatist party to help him take office for a seconde1 term. That is based on reports that we are seeing. Sanchezco winning catalan suppot needed to clinch that second term. a final vote in the spanish w3parliament is expected januy 7. Spain has been without a proper government since sanchez dissolved parliament in march for the first of twoxdxd electis last year. V story as well. C c1 nibloomberg users can interact with the charts shown to using gtv. Browse charts featured on bloomberg, catch up on key i lc h lc this is bloomberg. co co i am vivienne, lets get to first word news. A standoff off over the impeachment trial. Two week hoptqpvno negotiation happened. Pelosi has yeti] to send e1the senate to articles of impeachment. sesident donaldfae1 trumpt Campaign Says in the last three months of 29th team raised 46 million. The president urging supporters to donate towo u8 show their n for the impeachment investigation. On the democratice1 side, bernie ug sanders likely has the larget warchest of any potential nominee. Xdt during the First Quarter he raised 34 and a half million dollars. Kime1 jongun declared he is no longere1co bound by his pledge o all missile test. According to north koreas new ite1yme1 rn ws agency