Expecting 8. 6 and were getting 17. 7 . Those numbers getting close to the new years chinese holiday. Maybe there is a seasonal effect on these numbers. Rishaad these are good numbers, 17 . Lets have a look. We will have a look at what is going on with dollar numbers. Lets wait for that. Exports, in dollar terms. Do not have the dollar number yet. Nikkei up 0. 8 . At 29,000. Asx moving tohe the upside. Front andd the yuan center. 110 since may 24 or Something Like that. Getting more and more strong. 6. 87 . More strength coming through with the yuan. That could be down to what we are seeing with export, import and trade numbers. Yvonne these numbers when it comes to 2019, exports rising 5 from a year ago. Imports rising 1. 6 . The trade balance coming to 2. 92 billion renminbi. It seemshole year, things were looking better and not as bad as forecasted. Still in the green. David people would say it is backward looking data, but when you look at the trend, things are getting better. That 17. 7 ked out the in yuan in december is biggest jump since october of 2018. That is the best improvement in year on year data going back 15, 16 months. Yvonne first you had south korea, one of the first to see things looking less bad. Then taiwan, third in line to show the green shoots everyone was forecasting. Starting to materialize. Rishaad moon saying the gdp growth will be around 29 . Positive Economic Data increases. Lets keep the good news slow going because we have much better trade data out of china on the export side. 2019 total trade with the u. S. Was 3. 3 trillion yuan, down on the year. We will come back to that. Ons find out what is going with these twists and turns in the relationship between tehran and washington. Here is su keenan with the first word news. Su u. S. Military Officials Say they were told of impending missile strikes hours before iran attacked airbases in iraq. Tuesday american troops were told to go on lock down and take cover in bunkers at the assad base west in baghdad. They were landing about 1 30 the next morning and the barrage lasted two hours. The u. S. Says no americans were killed or wounded. A second night of protests after the downing of the ukrainian passenger plane. Videos show unrest in tehran and other cities with clashes between protesters and police. Some social media posts talk of open criticism of Ayatollah Khamenei and call for the end to the revolutionary guard. President trump has continued to tweet his support for the demonstrators. To the philippines where seismologists release images showing the moments the taal volcano erupted near manila. Has been throwing days, closingfor schools and offices and disrupting flights. Trading resumes tuesday on the manila stock exchange. The longrunning for protests in hong kong forcing Asset Managers to continue moving to singapore. The city state is picking up business at the expense of hong kong. This includes a private equity gathering shifting to singapore this year. Advisors are looking at the logistics of a move and growing parentsof hong kong wanting singapore schools for their children. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am su keenan. This is bloomberg. Have export numbers, import numbers. Always better than anticipated. I will get over to our guest to get reactions. Us. D peiqian liu joins your reaction to these numbers . I think the numbers are better than expected, but not surprising because the market was expecting moderate recovery. After the u. S. And china agreed on the phase one deal. We are seeing it is partially sentiment driven. The market gets a boost after the u. S. And china conferred there will be no further escalations in the near term. Orders and activities picked up after that good news. We have probably seen a frontloading with the chinese new year. Chinese new year comes earlier this year, in january. We are seeing frontloading activities in december to reflect a good picture in decembers trade data. Rishaad with not just of this set of data but others as well, better than anticipated pmis, would you say they are turning the corner . I am not just referring to china, but the Global Economy and the regional economy. I think we are experiencing more of a sentimentdriven recovery. The major confidence boost was from u. S. Trade tensions. They are not escalating further. To see whether or not it is sustainable or if we will see a rebound of growth, we have a few other factors to consider. The first one being uncertainties for corporate investments because even though we are facing a trade truce in the u. S. And china, we are not let sure if the u. S. Would be escalating trade tariffs at any time during the year. And whether or not President Trump will be keeping optionality on tariffs and china. That is the uncertainty the market is facing. With deleveraging policies, the three year policy has been a major hurdle for growth recovery because corporate and local governments are not allowed [indiscernible] we are now in the final year of deleveraging policies. Change insee any policy tone or direction. We probably will not see a strong pickup in growth momentum yet. Mentionedyvonne you the local government, a rampup of bond issuance, but these local governments have been strained by tax cuts in the economy. To what extent has it hurt their ability to carry out these Infrastructure Projects china is relying on . Peiqian from the supply perspective, we have special bond insurance being ticked up. That is helping. There is a key hurdle to that pickup in activity. Do not seend side we a lot of projects in the pipeline. We are also sing local governments constrained by their financing ability and ability to pick up investments. Policymakers are aware of this and will probably increase the special bond issuances. Walk us through what we are expecting in 2020. We are about to get gdp numbers. What is the most important data set for you next week . Peiqian i think the most gdprtant is growth of q4 numbers. I expect them to stabilize. We have seen higher frequency of stabilization. For the whole year in 2019 we had no problem meeting the annual targets. I expect gdp to settle between 6. 1 to 6. 2 for 2019. A gradual will see slow down in china gdp growth to around 5. 8 to five mark 5. 9 . If u. S. China relations start to warm up and we see limited escalation and further tariff actions. We will probably see pickup in domestic demands, as well as stabilization and external demand. David you mentioned domestic demand is likely to pick up on the back of infrastructure, but what has been the drag on retail sales last year . Do expect that to recover . The retail sales data has been dragged by auto sales the past two years. We will probably see that picking up or stabilizing into 2020 partly because of a lower base effect. Also because of policies. Loosening ofginal targets and the new emissions standards coming behind us. Stabilization in terms of auto consumption and that will probably stabilize retail sales early into 2020. Rishaad stay with us, peiqian liu. Still to come on Bloomberg Markets, more on the outlook for the economy in china. Also, more on the gdp expected friday. Yvonne david plus, inflation with a shocker. Fiveyear high on the headline numbers. We discussed what that means for the r. B. I. This is bloomberg. Yvonne to our other top story, the Trump Administration reversed orders, taking china off its currency manipulator list days before they signed the trade phase one trade deal. We have all things on trade and how beijing is reacting. This a significant move . The timing is interesting. Happy moodto the music ahead of the signing in washington. We have not heard officially from the chinese yet, but i imagine people will be happy about it. Augustas concern back in when the Trump Administration slapped that label on the chinese. Is thating in beijing this Shows Washington has an attitude of trying to make progress on trade. We do not know everything about this phase one trade deal. How much does it move the dial in terms of getting a proper fullscale resolution down the road, phase two or phase three deal . What are thoughts on that . Phase one isohn the easiest. These are the low hanging fruit, as it were. I do not think it says anything about how likely or unlikely of phase two is. Those are tricky issues when you talk about subsidies, the way china runs its economy. It is still going to be hard for both sides to find middle ground. John, thank you. China editor. We want to bring back peiqian markets. At natwest we are talking about the phase one deal. Part of we understood part of what we understand is a commitment from china to buy a certain amount of agriculture from the u. S. You look at that number. Canna actually buy china actually buy that much . Peiqian it depends on the details we have seen. China would increase agriculture [indiscernible] chinas imports from the u. S. It looks ambitious from the headlines, but we have to look at the timelines and terms and conditions. Chinattom line, once agreed, it was achieved and it was a feasible target. Yvonne how much faith do we put on a phase two deal . Peiqian i think it would be more complicated to move to wese two or three because will be touching on structural issues and reforms and both parties, it will be difficult for both parties to agree upon immediately. We are looking at a longer timeframe when it comes to the later phases of the trade deal. Rishaad with what has been going on and all the uncertainty created, how will gdp numbers look friday . Stimulus,rrants more in your view . What are we looking at this year . Peiqian in terms of chinas trade deals are adding a degree of uncertainty to the broad picture of stabilization. To introducent flexibility. That flexibility would be in reaction to anything added to the train tension trade tensions. We are seeing early signs of stabilization into 2020. As we see downside pressures late 2020, we will probably see official stepping up with larger aroundes to stabilize, 6 . David something our viewers of, you thinkte of, may be because the economy is stabilizing, do you think china will ditch their Deleveraging Campaign after a year . Why do you say that . The official tone about deleveraging has been changed from aggressively ranked down to stabilizing leverage. They have achieved significant progress in deleveraging. Now into the final year they are probably looking into additional [indiscernible] the overallns of leveraged remain stable in the third year of their Deleveraging Campaign. Yvonne everyone talking about the strength we have seen in the renminbi. Do you base this on sentiment around trade and a phase one deal, or is there something fundamental driving the gains we have seen in the currency . The shortterm the levels of the renminbi, especially the progress of phase one trade deals. In the longer term chinas fundamental growth is still on a stabilization path. That is why we see the dollar levelbis Exchange Rate at the same compared to the end of 2019. A relatively stable level for the Exchange Rate. There has to be a line in the sand if we see the strengthening continue. The question is, what is it. Pboc, does it affect the in your view . Some headlines have been suggesting the pboc has benefited from fx intervention. They are not defending specific levels in the dollar yuan Exchange Rate. They want dollar yuan to be and a reasonable range and the pace of appreciation or depreciation of renminbi does not go rapidly. It is important to manage the pace. Thank you so much. Up, indiasing skyrocketing inflation rate. Will beer Charu Chanana along. This is bloomberg. Is is bloomberg. David welcome back. You are watching Bloomberg Markets. , cashing in on increased stock market volume for 2020. Predicting Investment Banking could become a bright spot. The listed brokerages have had a strong past month amid changes to the lawmaking law, making it easier for new firms to list. Oil companyas top sees demand growth cut in half as the trade war continues to weaken the economy. Likely to stay around 6 . They say the need for energy will slow after the signing of the phase one deal. Fallout from the trade war will continue to be felt in china. A Chinese State backed aluminum producer missed payment on a dollar bond, underscoring its heavy debt pressures. Shanghai provincials 300 million bond. They say there is no grace period. 2021. Due in want to mark some lines coming through from beijing. Unofficial speaking on the back of these numbers we got on trade, a beat on exports and imports. This is the customs official saying china can keep the status as the largest exporter of goods in 2020 and they do expect exports to keep stable growth this year. This is based on easing of trade tensions as well as a low base. , up fromore about that 74 75 year ago. Mmr function. Going onk at what is with the asiapacific index. Companies doing well after the report yesterday saying subsidies would perhaps not be cut, or a significant change. Take a look at the bottom of the list. Only 19 down. Turning out a profit warning. A profit recovery of the company. 10 29 a. M. In hong kong and shanghai. I am su keenan with the first word headlines. U. S. Chinalatest on trade war. U. S. Dropping its designation of china as a currency manipulator, clearing another hurdle ahead of the trade deal signing. The treasury is announcing in its semiannual report, delayed by the phase one negotiations. Is imf saying the yuan barely valued. 6. 883 on monday. Chinese exports surged past exports in december, 9 compared to a year earlier. They were expecting a 3 increase. Imports outpaced expectations, but the overall trade surplus expanded to more than 400 billion. Trade with the u. S. Dropped more than 10 for the year. Relations between the worlds two largest economies. As the economys shrank ahead of the general election. Adds to concerns for the bank of policymakers debating whether further stimulus is needed to support the economy. Bets are increasing of carney making a decision as bank of england governor. Christine lagarde calling for policy silence ahead of her impending strategy review. She has written to members of the governing council that she will start the next two day policy meeting early to give time to deal with issues raised. Lagarde is keen to prevent the debate from spiraling out of control. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am su keenan. This is bloomberg. Recap linesnt to coming through from china costumes about these blowout numbers we saw. Yuan imports the highest we have seen since october 2018. They are flagging this based on the easing of trade tensions as well as a low base in december. They mentioned Higher Commodity Prices increasing the trade value we saw last month. Especially when we look at pork. 75 increase yearoveryear. Figurerican swine displacing the loss of supply indigenously. We have this line coming through. In terms ofigher the import of pork. That figure from the united states. We do not know where the 75 increase came from. That is a global figure. David the food inflation can bring headline inflation down. If you have Commodity Prices moving up, that should show up in gpi at some point. It is becoming a different picture in china when it comes to india. There is the divergence between Consumer Price inflation in india. What are we doing . A fiveyear high. North of 7 , boosting the case for a rate pause from the r. B. I. End of thethe upper target percent to 2. 6 to 2. 6 target. Rishaad lets go to mumbai with our policy reporter. Nasty numbers. Tell us about them. What to say. Highesteen the estimates. Nobody expected that. The prime reason is vegetable prices, onion prices. Watering jump if you look at the cpi index. That will take time to ease. Economists do not expect that headline inflation to come up far. It will take at least two or three months. In april we will see the inflation easing off. You have volatile oil prices. In the Telecom Price hike december will play at the next few months. You are seeing a sticky headline inflation which gives room to cut interest rates. T falls below the 4 mark there is not much they can do about that interest rate. Rishaad thank you very much. For more on these woes facing india and inflation. , joining us from singapore. Thank you. The reserve bank has its hands tied. Factors thaternal have little they have little control over, so what gives . Of course it is a way to figure out the situation for the r. B. I. They have softened in recent days. In december we heard something easing willline of, continue as long as necessary. Saidcent weeks they have price stability is their key objective. Factorsugh external [indiscernible] they are in a fix and easing seems to be delayed further. David are there signs this is more than an onion or food prices, generally speaking . We are seeing more expense on the food front. Eating and consumption and other things . Charu food is a big part of consumption in india. 50 if you it is look 50 . If you look at the number from december, the contribution from food itself is 5. 5 . This is the biggest factor contributing to the surge in inflation right now. Yvonne how sensitive is the r. B. I. To these types of supply shocks . Core inflation is subdued. The economy is desperate for stimulus. Does that give the r. B. I. Wiggle room to cut rates . Between theebate inflation hasg on been a long thing and the economy. The indianragile 6 or 7 . , it is supply shock like this which can make headline inflation. The key objective for the r. B. I. Is price stability. For now they will need to pause. Given your concerns about the with the number of cuts the r. B. I. Did in 2019, the focus will shift, as well as using additional policy tools to show support to growth. 7 , think with inflation at in the coming months it will not be easy to bring it back to the. Idpoint the r. B. I. Will have to hold off on rate cuts for now. Rishaad adding to what david and yvonnes points are, these crowds out the , amount the food takes up in the basket. It crowds out spending elsewhere. The economy has seen the worst growth rates it has seen in six years. How much worse does it get . Toohe stimulus point, is it little, too la