Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240713 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 13, 2024

More than 2 on the stoxx 600 great s p futures point to another day of decline in the u. S. On track for six days of declines and heading for lowest close since october and global stocks for the 10 year yield hitting a fresh record low. Yields are dropping across the u. S. Curve. The two year yield sitting around 112. To the euro missed the risk off memo . Three out of the past four days. 10947. It could be down to the broad dollar weakness. The yen has been big today along with gold. Saying we could get 1800 on gold. Wti extending its slide beyond a 13 month low. Lets get the bloomberg first word news. We begin with italian Opposition Leader Matteo Salvini who accuses the government of underestimating the threat of coronavirus. He is urging them to earmark at least 10 billion euros for emergency measures. I think it will be the composed of factions the dont like each other. Its already the weakest in terms of growth. After the virus, which will evidently slide us into a recession, a government that has been disagreeing on everything for the past six months could not be the one to give answers. The bank of korea has decided against cutting rates and is providing loan support for coronavirus hit companies. Two Board Members dissenting, calling for a reduction. The Central Banks as its still too soon to gain the full impact of the viral outbreak. For the year the bank also downgrading its growth forecast and it says its possible the economy will contract. Ab inbev of, the Company Forecasting the worst decline in quarterly profit in at least a decade. It sees firstquarter earnings dropping about 10 that after the coronaVirus Outbreak dented its business. The Worlds Largest brewer says its disappointed in its performance. We end with saudi aramco, it is starting early preparations for an international listing. Weve learned the Worlds Largest public the traded company is in discussions with wall street banks. They are looking to draw up scenarios for the secondary listing. Apo if you months ago few months ago ended up being very domestic. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Nejra thank you so much. To give you the headlines from. He top of the show coronavirusck to and thats our top story. More coronavirus cases reported in countries other than china for the first time. Significant develop in highlighting the spread of the epidemic around the world. President trump tried to ease fears around the virus. Because of all weve done, the risks of the American People remains very low. We are ready to adapt and do whatever we have to. This one is different, this is like a flu. I think the stock market will recover. The economy is very strong. We are totally ready, willing and able. Nejra the president said the stock market should recover but markets are still lower this morning. Strategists from Goldman Sachs warned against the dip and on the company front, microsoft and joining us now is managing director joining us now. Great to have you with us on the show. Citi saying its just Getting Started and what they point to is the uncertainty from coronavirus but also around the fed and the constraints on the fed. Is now the right time to actually be getting in and buying any dip on u. S. Stocks with the drop weve seen . I dont think so. But more broadly for quite a while now we said it simply time to buy overall. When you look at the polarizations of performances across sector, for quite a long time what we are buying and more was more important than what whether you are buying or not. Early to buytoo anything that would be exposed to the supply chain. Conversely those are getting hammered where is mediumterm growth spot is in changed and if you have them already you keep them. If you dont you can find entry points. Nejra are you thinking about reducing your exposure to equities overall as a result of coronavirus or have you just been making little tweaks in terms of not doing it through indices but through specific sectors. Even this crisis isnt happening in a vacuum. The context matches matters hugely. What we had until say two months ago. It was a market that had been really driven by these big , thedity supply last year nonqe qe. The markets have been very high so we had to reduce our exposure the beginning of this year on the back of this. Clearly what is happening now is encouraging us. Where the crisis started, therefore in this kind of typical trajectory of infection, things are starting to slowdown in china and probably a few weeks. Things will be looking much better. Some names a strange look interesting. Nejra is your next step likely to be further reducing equity exposure or looking for those opportunities in certain areas like china . It will depend on date of course. I dont know what we will have what will happen in europe. If investors will be spooked further by all these headlines, so we have to be datadependent. Ourundamentals surely analyst right now are trying to ifose names on which they are starting to reach impactful level. Thats the spirit right now. What the 10 year yield a twoyear yield around 112 in the u. S. , what is that due to your portfolio . To reallyficulty is understand what drives those levels. Is recession feels and those may be excessive right now. But conversely part of it is due to simply risk management. Byple like us have managed increasing the duration of our portfolios. Today dont provide huge value to be honest unless you dont trust at all the fed and you think it would miss their inflation target and therefore those ways its attractive. The willingness of the fed to really pursue higher inflation levels. We would not be really buying at these levels anymore. Didier stays with us for the hour. The u. K. Says the virus passed on in italy and canneries. They saying they are not 15 after two new positive tests. Coronavirus cases in the u. K. Now 15 after two new positive tests. That was passed on a daily. Also coming up headlines from malaysia saying the coronaVirus Outbreak led to a drop in aurism and they set up similar packet for the virus. They said it will beef up its offering of premium brands. We talk to the company cfo next pray this is bloomberg. Nejra economic, finance, politics. Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash. Falling as the ad Group Expects a fourth with no sales growth. It severs and fears, for competition and after years of cuts, the Consumer Brand are getting to spend more. The crowbars will hurt this years results. It will also delay its ability to achieve a return on equity targets of 10 by 2021. The fully year profit coming into that slightly below estimates. The lender also announced a buyback of half 1 billion. Coronavirus, we have actually seen the first couple months, if performed very well though clearly the impact of that will probably come through in march. The uncertain future the moment is in which markets it will take in. Microsoft cutting its outlook due to the coronavirus. The outbreak slowing production of computers and hitting sales. It doesnt expect to beat earlier guidance. Its returning to normal in a much slower pace than expected. Apple and hp costing estimate cutting estimates because of those disruptions. Thats your Bloomberg Business flash. Retail ands talk shares in europes largest on online retailer zalando are falling. Joining us now is the chief Financial Officer of zalando. Delighted to have you with us. Thank you for joining. Talk to me about the potential Coronavirus Impact that you are seeing on your business at the moment. How would you characterize and quantify it . Good morning. Exciting to be on the show. So far we havent seen any Material Impact from the coronavirus on our business. Obviously the situation we are closely monitoring what happens and also preparing for any type of scenario. Its important to find out that we are in a better position than any other businesses in the industry with regards to supply. Also the inventory we need to have a successful spring and Summer Season is that our warehouses. On obviously pendant than many other players. Frome can offer our powers the safety of their home. We expect to continue on a strong growth creature increasey and also an of around 10 . In the range of two hundred 25 million to 275 million euros. Anticipating any increase in demand from people staying at home and spending at home online . Far that would be speculation. We feel wellprepared and obviously we are happy to supply all those customers that want to shop with us but i think it is too early to say whether it will present any type of opportunity for us. What are you preparing for is the potential biggest Downside Risk if as you say you are not as exposed to supply chain issues are some of the retailers . So i think with regards to the supply chain we are focusing our attention already on the fall winter season. Although we were we are covered for spring summer. Were working with all suppliers to make sure its true for fall winter and since we are working with more than 2500 brands sourcing from an countries across the globe i think we will be able to make sure we are good for winter. We are also making sure that we can continue to operate as planned in europe, this is mainly the case for existing network tory benefit from a wideranging network with more than 10 sites across more than five countries and this also allows us to react flexibly to any type of situation. Nejra your Profit Guidance for this year missed some analyst expectations. Would you say that for the time being zalando is more focused on growth, increasing customers, gaining market share rather than on profitability . Our number one priority is definitely to drive strong above market growth. Drive upn the key to the company the longterm. This is something we already outlined when we issued a new strategy last year. We said we are going to continue to grow 20 to 25 over the next couple of years and we will continue to invest in acquiring additional come customers and deepening relationships. Because transitioning we think all the things will help us to triple the size of our business roughly when we compare it to where we were 2018. We target to grow to the size of 2024 whichby 2023, works to climb a 5 market share. That said you earlier did mention the market. Im wondering whether in the long run you still want to fix that to 10 of 13 and you have a timeline for when you might get there . I think weve provided a clear timeline when we communicated our longterm targets last year. Wesaid during the transition will actually have a margin in the range of two to 4 . Thats what we will achieve this year and we are seeing the other end of that range. Also an outlook for this year. For the years after we target the margin to increase and a longterm target aspiration is 10 to 13 . Nejra talk to me about the broader strategy in terms of adding more premium brands. How successful will you be in taking on the likes of . David our key strategy is to offer consumers everything they shop. O look at and that also includes premium and Luxury Fashion items. If you look back at last year we were able to grow the Premium Category and it actually meant this was the strongest growth of any category we are very confident that with new brands coming on and further improvements to our Premium Experience we will be able to ande growth of all business deepen relationships with our customers. ,ejra thank you so much david chief Financial Officer at zalando. Of treasuryw higher for a sixday. This is bloomberg. Nejra treasuries gaining for a sixth day today. Investors increasing their bet on central bank easing to cope with the impact of the coronaVirus Outbreak. Didier we were talking about the move of yields across the Treasury Curve and you said you arent looking to increase duration right now the other thing to note in fixed income is whats happening with credit. Weve blown out quite a bit particular on highyield. Be,ead of that double triple be spread. Do you hold much corporate setting in the portfolio right now . Didier we dont hold much exposure to Corporate Credit. Valuations were extremely trenched. We were very much hedged. Highyield is suffering more because the interestrate cushion is less so you would expect not only more risky but you get less protection so you are more exposed there. Probably there will be defaults. That should be the background of this is this is an external shot shock. We have had them before. , they took a big hit to activity. Its all about judging which issuers, which credit will manage their way through the period. Rm thats the work we are doing. On credit, i would expect if things get truly hammered further. Is thejust briefly overall message or taken from the credit markets now that this is a transitory shock rather than sending more maligned . Didier i dont think the market itself can send the message. Thats the thing with external ,hocks in the previous example it doesnt come from the accident itself, it comes from reaction to the accident. It sparks consumer sentiment. But it is also very much reaction by policymakers, governments and they have the pressure to do a lot which probably exacerbate the impact. Up, how are south africas companies preparing for the coronavirus . This is bloomberg. Nejra the coronavirus spreads. The u. S. Identifies the first patient with no ties to the existing outbreak. The selloff continues. Youre plunges into the red. The routing of u. S. Stocks is just Getting Started. Ab inbev forecast its worst quarter in a decade. This is bloomberg surveillance. As the coronavirus spreads across the world, big business started to count the cost with several companies warning profits are getting hurt. The warnings are pouring through yet again this morning. ,ou mentioned that there pressure on revenue. They are saying the coronavirus could be one of the reasons why they failed to meet their Revenue Growth targets bracing invev expectct, ab in the worst quarter years seeing a drop of 10 on profit in the First Quarter. Really we are seeing that escalate around the world. They havent at the moment included it in their 2020 seeing which says to me that negative impact when we start to see the results. How these individual stocks are trading as we heard there companies talk about the coronavirus. Within 3. 5 . , really slumping today down 7. 5 . Viviana has your first word news in new york. We begin with the worlds biggest sovereign wealth fund. A 20 a record number. Its Stock Holding jumping by 26 . The results happened in a year in which the investor opted to cut its fossil fuel exposure. Even if the outlook gets worse, the u. S. Is ready for the coronavirus. This from President Trump who is putting Vice President pence in charge of the governments response. Saudi arabia has halted religious visits that includes medina and mecca. The World Health Organization says more new cases reported outside of china than in china. Be you he says investors should seek safety in golden government bonds but that isnt the take of ubs. Its advising high network net worth clients to load up on chinese shares saying they have attractive valuation. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. The rand lower a day this morning after south africas finance minister presented the budget to lawmakers. Include backtracking on a three year pay deal agreed with Civil Servants in 2018 in an attempt to curve debt curve debt. Joining us now, the joint ceo of south africas international bank. Great to have you on the show. Thank you for joining us. Lets begin with the impact of coronavirus and the effect across all companies. Virus e corona coronavirus affecting your overall banking business . Obviously with stockmarkets having retreated somewhat, that is likely to affect the valuation we may get but we have some Strong Demand for the shares will remain quite confident the listing of 91 will be successful. With respect to a banking operation, we have an operation yesterdayhat i was at and we have reviewed our response plans in case there is an outbreak in the u. K. But on the ground there is a level of concern about the virus and secondly the economy has been affected by the uncertainty around brexit, those of the two factors over the next six to 12 months. Theyll be critical. About 16th ofked march for the merger of 91. If the outbreak continues to have a more negative impact on the stockmarkets. Is there any trouble it could be later in the year . Not at all. We are set on going through with the demerger. We are bidding the majority the shares. Placement which we are planning at the moment. There intent on moving with demerger. Nejra which initiatives will investec focus on for future growth . We have very strong franchises in private banking, Corporate Banking and we have a very strong franchise in the wealth business space. Both in the u. K. And south africa. These will be the core of what we take forward strategically. We will be looking to offer the totality of investment to our clients both wealth and banking and in the u. K. Specifically we have a number of initiatives around Business Banking in south africa. Around new initiatives Business Banking. Despite how tough the markets are we remain confident there is a path towards growth in the medium to longterm. The economies in which we operator quite difficult. With

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