Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open July 13, 2024

1000 globally. Inwidens along infections china. Weekis set for its best since 2011. Holds a oil minister crunch meeting with opec allies. Couldrtel warns it abandon cuts altogether if the country does not join in. We are live in vienna. Undergoes emergency heart surgery. The bank says he is recovering well. Under one hour away from the start of cash equity trading. Lets take a look at futures after the route we saw yesterday. Play ad catchup to play. Even u. S. Futures are falling after 3 drops yesterday. We still see red arrows almost almost for s p futures seven hours away from cash trading in new york. German factory orders are coming out, up over the estimates. Is aurse, that backwardslooking figure at a time when figures look so backwards they are of very little use. We have the Coronavirus Impact at the beginning of january, so the most recent look at factory orders is very different. Anna indeed. We are getting jobs data later. People are talking about how that can feel stale. Will talk more about the job story after the u. S. Later. Monitor,thing we will but could be a failure in the markets eyes. 2 on down by more than the asiapacific in the, down on the nikkei hang seng, and asx. So extensive selling across the market and ongoing concerns about the virus and the damages could do to the Global Economy. Notwithstanding the human disaster, of course. The indian rupee has just dropped off as the state took control of the fourth largest lender. Lets have a look at the other side of the gmm. It is the friends that matter here. Will russia decide to join in with cuts . Oil is part of the commodity selloff story. What you see is a great deal of appetite for sovereign debt. We have alltime low yields in australian debt well below 1 . That is the obvious play right now. We ask how long it can go on. Matt global central bankers are cutting Interest Rates, in some cases beyond crisis era lows. It underscores the hit from the economy, even as investors. Uestion that Monetary Policy we are now going to have an interruption with a severe deterioration. We are coordinating with the treasury to make sure that initiatives we undertake are complementary and will collectively have maximum impact. A strong sense that we are all on the same page. Allhe bank will take necessary steps to support the economy and financial system. It will help to mitigate the inevitable tightening of financial conditions. Of theome of the words worlds leading central bankers responding to the outbreak. Lets get a markets update with our mliv managing editor in london. Lets talk about what Central Banks are doing. Maybe we need a conversation about how much needs to be saved tofor later if we start appreciate this crisis will last quite a time. Im not sure. They need to start acting as soon as possible. It does not matter if they deliver it now or in six months. Either way, rate cuts are not the most effective method to prevent a pandemic. We already have liquidity in the system. Necessary but not sufficient . Thats a good way of appraising it. Its definitely not and im not even sure it is necessary we would see the surge into bonds regardless and this marginal support, im not even sure it is necessary. Matt what do you think about the drop in oil prices . We go to vienna a little later. Are they falling too far too fast . The history of these meetings is a little bit of backandforth. Eventually, they reach a compromise. I still think we might see that the jump to 55 a barrel. Overall, backdrop picture is still very negative. I am very bearish on oil longterm. Night not would right off opec plus reaching some sort of agreement. Anna our sovereign bonds the main story in town . It seems so obvious. Weve done it through trade tensions and now through the coronavirus tensions. A pointlleague made provide certainty. You know what you are going to get from your assets. In equity, you have no idea. Know where dividends will come. Bonds provide this brilliant income that cannot be gotten anywhere else. Anna i guess comparisons are meaningless when you are expecting earnings to be cut. Aired garfield made the point that its not about the levels of yield, but about the facts. They are certain and thats why they will continue to be soughtafter. Think abouto you the longerterm question of inflation . Saying it was a possibility yesterday. Supplyside issues are driving prices up. Concern, and what central bankers have to do a 180 . Possibility. S a i dont think it is a major risk. Risk. Sly, it is a tale a very, very small tale risk. Yes, we are getting a supply Chain Disruption and tail risks that lead to a spike, but there are so many structural disinflationary pressures. I would worry about the inflation environment that is staring us in the face. Have german factory orders which look backwards and the jobs data will be the same story. Absolutely right. Say, it is a nonfarm payroll day where the data is irrelevant and yet might react in the market. It is a traders market. I cant tell you now how it will react. Actionnds on the price and it might squeeze out vulnerable positions. We are going into a weekend where we might get more news flow so it will be the most vulnerable squeezed out. Remember, you can get involved and send us your thoughts if you want to get in touch with the markets live team here let me tell you what else is coming up aired up next, a look at the stoxx to watch. Says the coronavirus will slow down eyeglass sales. Radio isber, Bloomberg Live on your mobile device. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back. This is the european open. We are 47 minutes away from the nbct of cash trading futures pointing lower to end the week. Lets get your stocks to watch from around the newsroom. Annmarie hordern is looking at ney on, are slow the saga arcelor. At u. S. Re looking concerns. Annmarie National Security officials are urging donald trump to block this deal. They are looking to take over cyprus in a 9 billion deal. They say it poses a security risk, which is why officials are trying to get him to block this. Twomp has already blocked foreign takeover deals and we see it is already down 1 . Anna what is going on with this business . They came out with earnings. Revenue was up 4. 4 last year, which is a pickup from 2018. For 2020, they are looking at growth of 35 , assuming the coronavirus outbreak subsides. They have got a lot riding on this and the forecast hinges on this outbreak. The company has plans in italy and china. Plants in china are running below capacity right now. This is the first full year for the Company Since the merger that created it. Interestingly they still do not have a ceo. They said it may be by the end of this year. There is this longrunning dispute. At a time when they are dealing with the outbreak, theyre still searching for a ceo. It will take them well before the end of the year. Matt you can get all of your stock stories by typing into your bloomberg terminal or mobile app. Lets get leighann gerrans first word news spec in london. Back in london. Medical workers are warning of supply shortages as hospitals are uncertain when they will able be able to test cases. Russias oil minister is returning to vienna for crunch talk with opec allies. Of 1. 5up proposed cuts Million Barrels a day but says it could abandon them if russia does not take part. If this backfires, the price of oil could crash. There has been another cease fire in syria. President putin and erdogan are looking to patch up the increasingly frayed relationship. The pact fell short of what president erdogan was actually after, failing to establish a new zone of control. Global news, 24 hours a day on air, on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Anna, matt . Anna thanks very much. Reacts are continuing to to the spread of the coronavirus as the number of cases approaches 100,000. The global rally has broken more records and there has been volatile trading. Joining us from geneva is the global head of fx at lombard. I want to start you by asking about the dollar. I have a chart that shows this oversold at this point. Where do you see the dollar heading . I will be honest. In the shortterm, it is oversold. I think the situation is so unpredictable in the shortterm. New cases in china are being announced the markets remain jittery. It makes any shortterm framework out of the window. Head,eds to keep a cool acknowledging a great deal of uncertainty. View hasediumterm been that this is a year for dollar downside. What has changed this time are these massive drop in yields. What i think about it, 10 year paper in the u. S. Is giving you 80 basis points. This is over 100 points of decline in just two months. So that is bound to start accepting some further downside. Matt you live in the fx world. When i look at Dollar Strength or weakness, there are a million things that could be driving it up or down. What leads most to Dollar Strength . Pairs, switching to dollars to buy 10 year yield . What drives it for real . It is a combination of things. Thing isall, one major the growth rate differential. Especially if you look between the u. S. And eurozone or the u. S. And emerging market growth. This is typically correlated with the dollar, meeting the u. S. Is outperforming the rest of the world. It means to get flows into equity and fixed income. But what has happened and has has been thatinct most major Central Banks have gone negative. Is distorted done the traditional relationship of Interest Rate differentials. Intoen the countries went negative, what really mattered was only the absolute level of positive yield they were taking. That is why the dollar looked very overvalued. But of the shortened currency did not really matter because it was in negative territory. Anna do you suggest investors hide out in the swiss franc . Can you repeat the question . Anna do you think it is a good time to buy into the swiss franc . No. I do not buy into further swiss franc strength. I think the euro swiss appears to have found a floor around this area. At the same time, we still think the National Bank is going to stand by the statements made these past months. They have been intervening and we can see that in the data. We think that if pressure for appreciation is going to accelerate, they will most likely follow up these attentions with additional rate cuts. The cuts may not be much, but it signals the markets are not willing to tolerate a sustained swiss franc from here. Matt we will keep you with us. Theres a lot to talk about today. Coming up later today, fancy a bet on the growth of the Robotics Industry . We bring you the details at 9 30 a. M. London time. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to Bloomberg Markets. We are just about 35 minutes away from the start of cash Equities Trading on a day when futures are pointing down after drops in the u. S. Exceeded those in yesterdays trade. It looks like the indexes have a little catching up to do. Us. Guest is still with affect is people running for safe haven assets. The yen with 8105 handle. N it how much strength do you think the japanese currency could attract . The samenomy has issues as european economies. Yeah, but one thing you need to take into account is the safety of the yen has largely been driven by the fact that japan does not have as much credit. So when you get events like that, residents tend to repatriate a substantial amount of money. Thats why see such a big appreciation of the yen. This has certainly been the main driver of the main downside and the dollar aspect. Going to later, we are get out of this environment and potentially start trading more on the underlying fundamentals. If we are right in terms of dollar downside. I think the yen will continue to be beat. But this will not come from the environment but the dollar downside. The other thing we need to take into account is the massive decline in u. S. Yields. Let me just spend one minute here. Traditionally, you get inferentials. Over the past five years anna just briefly. Sorry . Anna i have to jump in. We will continue that thought another time. Thank you so much. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to Bloomberg Markets. This is the european open. It looks like it could be a very down day. You see futures off more than 2 across all of the major equity indexes. Anna lets get a Bloomberg Business flash in london. Anna President Trump has been urged to block the proposed purchase of cypress semiconductor. Theyre concerned the deal poses a National Security risk, but it was not clear why the German Government has been trying to persuade the u. S. To green light the takeover. U. S. Regulators have finalized reviews of the boeing 737 max and expect pilots to test fly the plane. Boeing hopes to get the plane backed by midyear. It has been grounded for almost 12 months. Hsbc has concerns an employee in china has been infected by the coronavirus. It comes after evacuating the office. Ceo sent a note saying the employee is in self quarantine and recovering. Chinacks says business in is getting back to normal. The results will be temporary and profits are down by as much as . 18 a share. Fall 50 e salts may year on year in the second quarter. Thank you very much. Governments around the world have pledged over 54 billion to fight the spread of the virus. Europes spending is almost entirely confined to italy, which has been hit the hardest. , maria tadeo joins us from brussels. When theany sense of virus is going to peek . Peak . Italy seems to have a head start. Exactly. That is the question the markets are asking. Seemata out there does not to be pointing that way. We had italian numbers which have not seen the comedown, but it is not just italy. I point out france, which had a big strike yesterday. There are over 400 cases. Macron manual president macron say people should be prepared to see those numbers increase. The bottom line here is that the numbers are not pointing to peek virus. Today, Health Ministers our meeting to figure out what next step we will see. Eu is saying we are seeing coordination, but each individual nation is doing their own rules and testing. Seeing aill not coordinated fiscal response. Extra. Hat about the extrahe idea spending in italy. What is the idea . Both,y are trying to do which was the message yesterday. They are doubling the amount of money floated at the start of the week. They are trying to kickstart the economy its difficult to see how this could help italy over the short term. Gdp and exports being restricted by the virus. Secondly, the amount of damage , itsas done to sentiment difficult to see how to patch this quickly. Economists do predict a technical recession. Its difficult to get an idea because the data is backwards looking. To some extent, we are flying in blind. Matt maria, thanks. In brussels talking to us about the coronavirus and the attempts to hold back. The fed surprise on tuesday with its own attempt to cushion the economic impact. One of those who voted was Robert Kaplan speaking exclusively to our economics and policy after Kathleen Hays. The situation has changed pretty meaningfully. If you asked me two weeks ago, i was saying to see how this will unfold it was too early to comment. What happened once the virus got , for korea and then italy me at least, probability of a material deterioration increased. It was to the point where i agreed we would need to take action. Then, i felt the situation was i thought itapidly would be wiser to act now and act boldly where it could make an impact. Mean, its not going to help with the number of diagnosed cases or get people to want to go out. Not going to do anything about the containment reaction. What will do is if we enter a time where we have a severe slowing in the economy that lasts for some time, accompanying that is likely to be a tightening in financial conditions. If we go into this with somewhat believe ititions, i will help to moderate or mitigate some of that inevitable tightening of conditions that will happen as a result of this spike in cases. The judgment of the wisdom of this is more looking ahead in the next 68 weeks. Regard i feel confident we did the right thing. One other thing. A number of people had a reaction because the market sold off. I will tell you that if the markets had gone up, it would have given me no comfort whatsoever. Conditions,about its not about the current stock market. It is about mitigating a tightening of financial conditions and increasing the likelihood that as we come out of the situation, we can come out more strongly. Kaplanhat was robert , evenng to Kathleen Hays us and explain for the emergency rate cut saw earlier. A highstakes poker game is playing out between russia and opec area we get the latest in vienna. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to the european open. European futures suggest we will be continually weaker at the start of trade. Jobs report will provide a snapshot of Market Health before the outbreak. The jobs report is tallied using surveys other for month could better perfect reflect better conditions, but what do some of our guests think . One guest says the Coronavirus Impact is likely to be reflected in march. Investors is abn that the beige book has noted some impact on tourism and leisure which could reduce payroll contributions and the upside risk average hourly earnings. Moodys says not to wait for Monthly Employment but watch weekly initial claims. Another view is that the pace of payrolls is on a general slowdown trend due to moderated Economic Growth. So, a full wrap up of what some of our guests have been saying about jobs reports and their usefulness. , where ano brussels economist is joining us. Went through a few takes on the job support and what data we should be looking at. How useful will the report be to you today . I dont think the report will be useful at all for market strategy. That said i think the report will be strong. Mentioned, its mostly passed indications of u. S. Labor Market Health. R

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