Stuff happen here in the lockdown of new york and london. That does not mean the conversations will stop. Great conversations lined up today. Thank you so much for watching our last hour with rupert harrison. We move forward with michael a moment. Ning us in my observation is that every nation for itself right now. How was Prime Minister johnsons weekend . Francine i do not think they are competing with each other. There is a lack of coordination, but when you look at the u. K. , that is coronation between treasury and bank of england. So it is domestic coordination that got it right. If you look at the global efforts, maybe coordination could help in terms of medicine of swaps medicinal sops information. Boris johnson has told people to selfisolate or at least distance themselves. If you look at pictures across london, many people, far too many people, are just not heeding the advice of what the government is saying, which is why we hear that the government is thinking about a lock down that you have in new york. Variousn you look at banks and what they say about recession or the Second Quarter in the u. K. , the numbers are ugly. We need to look at the number of inflection infections. If you flatten the curve of infections, that could have an impact on the economy. Tom we will see. There are real nuances in the data. Right now, with our news, in new york city, here is viviana hurtado. Viviana we begin on capitol hill. Senate democrats blocked the giant coronavirus economic rescue package, disagreeing on how to spend almost 2 trillion. Mitch mcconnell is calling for a minutes after markets open in the u. S. If there will be a change of heart then. Democrats are worried about not enough oversight. Morgan stanley is predicting u. S. Gdp will plunge 30 in the Second Quarter. This is a warning that coronavirus will be a lot worse than expected for the u. S. Economy. Morgan stanley economists seeing 12. 8 percent unemployment average. And chancellor Angela Merkel has quarantined herself at home today. The public face of germanys fight against the coronavirus behind closed doors after she came into contact with a doctor who later tested positive with the disease. Prime minister shinzo abe of japan is indicating that postponing the summer olympics may be inevitable. The International OlympicCommittee Says it will reach a decision in a four weeks. But canada says it will not send athletes to the games it wants the games delayed until the pandemic is controlled. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much pay lets get to the data. We are seeing the market open with a little bit weaker and yields lower, from their twoyear space out to the 30 year bond, with curve flattening. Those worries about massive economic slowdown. I want to point out the bloomberg dollar index, which is much more of an emerging market index. En the vanilla dxy a stronger bloomberg dollar index. That bears watching, with the mexican peso and the turkish lira weaker. Just two examples are the other thing i point out is the Bloomberg Financials conditions index through the asia morning, through the european morning, and now into the new york morning. It has deteriorated, almost out to seven standard deviations. The Bloomberg Financial conditions index shows maximum stress within the system. Stock is dropping globally. We are seeing it here in europe. You were talking equity futures. This is what we are seeing in europe. Down to 3 . This is after a weekend surge in death toll because of corona tires and a failure by u. S. Congress to agree on the stimulus package. The dollar pretty much steady. Brent crude extending losses. I think i have a second board looking at the bond, the italian bond yield at 1. 65. Germany, it seems that ecb action so far has helped a touch. We continue looking at these cross asset checks almost every 10 minutes. Tom we will be looking up that across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Very important to bring in michael darda of mkm partners. He does a terrific job of synthesizing the bid and ask of the various markets. What is so important is the market psychology now, which is we are down big, so, at some point, you enter into the market. Is there an urgency here to wise buy s by stocks stocks, or can you be patient and wait . Michael hi, thanks for having me on. There needs to be patience the part of Retail Investors, if they just recently noticed that their portfolios have fallen a lot, and they feel like they want to panic and sell everything. Probably a very bad idea on a multiyear horizon. Tothe other hand, our advice Institutional Investors or even retail clients that may be listening out there is that you probably do want to lean into this market declined in equities gradually over time, but only with a multiyear horizon. I have no idea if we are within a few basis points of the low or if equity markets are going to continue to fall and make new lows by a wider proportion. What i do know historically is that down 30 plus is in your runofthemill bear market. No one will be able to time this thing. Is to be to do gradually leaning against the wind for longerterm investors and not to panic and sell everything at the bottom, which is what happened in 2008. Neverof Retail Investors really began to cover to recover from that until just recently, unfortunately. To say here,nt next to mount sinai, it is great next toa cup of coffee one of our great cancer hospitals in new york. I look at the theory out there of the idea of stimulus as well. Modern all become a avoid any will you talk of keynesian theory . Michael i do not even think we need to use mmt. I think you will like this. I. S. L. M. Analysis. A pretty much describes perfectly the shocks hitting credit in goods markets now. You may have noticed that, from march 6 until thursday of last week, real Interest Rates were soaring, Inflation Expectations were collapsing. That would be consistent with a big leftward lurch in the l. M. Curve. Liquidity shock, a huge rush into money and dollar liquidity. The fed has been trying, but has simply been overwhelmed by that huge spike in demand for liquidity that is consistent with wider credit spreads and lower equity prices. A tiny bit of good news for both of you. We just started to see, friday and it looks like it may continue today the fed and other Central Banks potentially getting a little bit of traction against this huge liquidity shock. Real rates plunged 50 basis points in the tips market friday. Inflation expectations rose 20 plus basis points. It is a start. We are nowhere near recovered. These are the credit markets are under tremendous stress, similar to 2008. But it is a start, so lets go with that. Is the market as an economist, what data do you look at to base your forecast . If you look at the big banks at the moment, it is anything 24 second to quarter. What do you look at . I do not know how you model it. And because it is a phase of how long infections last, i do not know how much time frame need to give yourself to forecast accurately. Michael good point. The dispersion in Consensus Forecast thousand no one has any idea tells us no one has any idea. We had james buller tell us that gdb could fall 50 in the coming quarter, which is certainly you cannot rule it out. I try to look at historical parallels and tried to use a proper framework for thinking about the macroeconomy. Unfortunately, with this pandemic, globally, the closest parallel we have is 1918, 1919. We had world war i going on around that time. There is really no perfect parallel. We had a ninemonth inflationary recession in 1918, 1919, what you would expect with a simple adverse supply shock, which is what a pandemic should be, at its core. Unfortunately in a modern financial system, we are given in enormous demand shock from a huge spike in demand for liquidity. Then we have to try to model that. Do is relate their previous fallen in riskfree rates to the velocity of money and try to back into a nominal gdp forecast from there. It looks ugly. Down 6 to 20 yearoveryear. That is a disaster if it is not reversed by policymakers. This is where i think anna terry and fiscal policy need to be focused on level path targeting think fiscaly i policy needs to be focused on level path targeting. Policymakers need to stop thinking about targeted and timely. 2008 was a from failure. We need to be super focused in bringing output in the price level back to the trend growth paths we were seeing before the pandemic hit, as rapidly as possible. We cannot have another lost or capitalism will not survive. Francine coming up, a full medical analysis of coronavirus with peter shearer, chief medical officer at mount sinai brooklyn. Aboutl talk to us isolation, lockdown, and number of cases. This is bloomberg. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance from the new york, a lockdown in new york, and a less locked down london, Francine Lacqua in london. They bloomberg dollar index stronger this morning. Interesting deteriorations based on a lot of economic work showing sharp economic slowdown. Right now, we shift to the moment at hand, the verily thete virology, microbiology, and how it confronts hospitals. With thens and ends emergency room. Peter tchir is with mount sinai brooklyn, where he is definitive in the care of emergency rooms, not only in his teaching excellence, the building out of their acclaimed residency program, but dealing in the absolute trenches of emergency medicine in this time of crisis. Thank you so much for joining us today. At mount sinai brooklyn, what is your number one challenge in the emergency room now . Dr. Shearer good morning. Thank you for this opportunity. It is in the emergency room and it is in the hospital. We are seeing a real surge in cases, which is obvious in the numbers you see from around the area, both to the emergency room into thegh inpatient hospital. Patients are coming into the emergency department, getting admitted into the hospital, and they are not moving forward. Most hospitals work on models where you admit a certain number of patients a day and would normally discharge a certain number of patients a day. What we are seeing with these patients, the ones sick enough ofrequire admission because the inflammatory response, these patients are not improving and are not being discharged. So my hospital, all of the hospitals in that system, are starting to back up. Tom is there a way for anyone to delineate between this terrible virus and any other normal flu or bacterial infection . Is there a way to nuance it before they call someone like you at your hospital . Dr. Shearer there is. It mostly can be done over the visits. Telehealth i encourage people, if you go to any of the Major Hospital systems in new york city, their websites, they all have Telehealth Options available to you. Within a few clicks, you can register and be seen by a physician on that site. Symptomsy, if you have of fever, cough, body aches, you are almost definitely a covid19 patient. There is no testing that needs to be done. Testing can delineate, but at this point, it does not need to be done. We know what the epidemiology is in our area. Essentially, it is the virus is rampant. If you have symptoms, you are positive. The vast majority of patients do not need to be hospitalized, and you can manage all the information you need through a telehalth telehealth visit. Francine what do we know about the number of cases that are mild compared to those critical or severe . There is a chinese study suggesting 81 of confirmed cases are mild, 14 severe, a. 7 critical. Does that sound right or is it too soon to tell . Dr. Shearer that sounds perfectly correct. About 80 of patients who have covid19 who would be tested positive are mild and can be managed in the outpatient setting. Then you look at the other 20 that needs to be hospitalized. A good number of those need to be hospitalized in a medical unit to receive supplemental oxygen, for example. 3 maller percentage between to 5 will need to be admitted into intensive care units. But we are seeing, in my hospital and across the system, these patients are sick, so there are supportive therapy, but they are not improving. They are not improving to a point after seven days, where you would normally expect patients to be fit for home care either to a service or to nursing facilities. They are not improving in the way we would normally expect patients to, leading to a real back up in the system. Francine could people catch it more than once . Dr. Shearer the medical science is still indeterminate on that. Develop anpeople antibody response after they have recovered, so that should be protective. But we have heard stories of people getting reinfected. But i think the vast majority of people will have developed some degree of immunity. One glimmer of light, i would say, for a lot of us. Tom peter tchir at mount sinai brooklyn. And brooklyn is really affected here in the Greater New York area. There has been a bunch of data about this coming out in the last 24 hours. Think so much for joining bloomberg surveillance this morning thank you so much for joining bloomberg surveillance this morning. These are unusual times. I am coming to you overlooking central park, Francine Lacqua coming from london as well. What i would like you to know is there are a lot of different ways to look at Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg television. Do that across all of our Digital Products and on the libor terminal tv is a good way to approach this. Tv will give you all of the important conversations throughout the day. This is bloomberg. Viviana you are watching bloomberg surveillance. Im with jan hurtado. Airbus is withdrawing its Earnings Guidance and its proposed dividend payouts. The as the latest sign coronavirus pandemic is ripping through the airline industry. It is a reaction to reducing liquidity. And passenger flights are suspended to most as nations as largest deepens for the air corporation in the world. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Tom thank you. Ofas looking at the data off my wonderful bloomberg terminal. What you see is a stronger dollar. This is really important with more e. M. Angst this morning. The mages are doing better than what we are seeing in the emerging markets. A lot more to come. This is bloomberg. When you move homes, you move more than just yourself. Thats why xfinity has made taking your internet and tv with you a breeze. Really . Yup. You can transfer your Service Online in about a minute. You can do that . Yeah. And with twohour Service Appointment windows, its all on your schedule. Awesome. So while moving may still come with its share of headaches. No kidding. Were doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinity. Com moving to get started. We are fiddling here. Fiddling with the emotions of the American People, fiddling with the markets, fiddling with our health care. The American People expect us to act tomorrow, and i want everybody to fully understand, if we are not able to act tomorrow, it will be because of our colleagues on the others bicker when the country expect us to come together and address this problem. The legislation has many problems. At the top of the list, it includes a large corporate bailout, with no protections for workers and virtually no oversight. Also very troubling in the bill are significant shortfalls of money that our hospitals, city, state workers desperately need. This is a Public Health crisis. It is inexplicable to skimp on funding to address the pandemic. Tom as we talk about the markets and the virology of this moment, we need to talk about the politics. For our global audience, front and center in the american newspapers this battle. Not a surprise, many polarized battles in washington. But this battle is truly front and center. President will have another press conference today. Maybe he will have good news to stimulus. Rd right now, our good news is greg brownstein. Thank you so much for being with us. I know it is not much of a surprise that, in the senate, there is a battle. Can you explain how they could not get to a decision over the weekend versus getting to a decision that they have to get to monday or tuesday . What is the why of this moment . Greg good morning morning. This might be described as one of those legislative matters that is too important to fail, so i have to think that, at some point, probably today, the senate will reach an agreement. As you know, Congress Passed what we called a phase one bill, about eight . 3 billion for prevention and treatment primarily. A phase ii two bill was also passed, approximately 100 billion, the socalled family first bill, intended to provide immediate relief to individuals and businesses. It is a phase three bill now stuck in the senate. That is another approximately 1 trillion. It is business focused. As your introduction suggested, that is a bit of a disagreement between democrats and the senate, who think it is too business friendly without enough checks and balances, without enough oversight. Republicans, emphasizing the fact that there are industries and businesses that employ thousands and thousands of americans and, unless they are supported and in a way that allows them to stay open and continue employing those americans, it will be a problem, not just for those corporations but for individual american workers. Tom and of course you understand this with nevada, with your heritage of nevada as well, that entire western mythology that libertarian streak in the west. The rest of the country is saying this is just the big cities, this is just about new york city. Balance int washington between a rural mythology and the urban mythology and realities that we are seeing. Greg just from the perspective of a live out in nevadan, someone who grew up in las vegas and is watching las vegas essentially shut down now, i will tell you there is no skepticism about the need for this bailout bill, if you will, from the perspec