Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open July 13, 2024

Go higher. The crash stride an hour away. Lets get your top headlines off the bloomberg terminal. China p. M. I. Data Beat Estimates but it is a mixed picture for asian stocks and u. S. Futures turned in the case negative. The w. H. O. Said the coronavirus outbreak in europe may be approaching its peak but across the atlantic new york city reports a 16 increase in deaths in just six hours. Plus lenders from howards bank to unicredit halts dividends at the request of the b. B. C. Well speak with the chair to have Advisory Board in just over an hour. We do see futures positive here. Certainly in germany. 3 4 of a percent. Up on the dax futures. U. S. Futures we pointed out are down right now. Of course that can change. Volatility is the name of the game these days but we see a little bit of a split in terms over the risk indicators. Anna, what do you see from your g. M. M. . Anna before get to that, lets get to breaking news. We have numbers coming through from shell. They are talking ookts a new 12 billion reinvolving credit line commitment. They say they have available liquidity that will rise from 30 billion to 40 billion. Shoring up oil giant Balance Sheets seems to be the name of the game. They talk about the dividends. It is going to be something that many in the Financial Community are going to be talking about over the next year or so. Where the dividend goes in the near term and the longterm perhaps. They are expected to be lower. They see a q one post tax charge in the range of 400 to 800 million. We heard just last night about how they were walking away from a multibillion dollar gas terminal. That was planned for louisiana. The pandemic driving demands, destruction story as well. We know the Oil Companies are very much under pressure and we have seen much Weaker Oil Prices as a result of that. Let me just get to the g. M. M. A more positive picture coming through. In all, the asian sector has been pretty mixed. Mixed asia. U. S. Futures mixed negative now. Nasdaq futures look fairly flat. Are we going to be disregarding the bounce we have seen in china Manufacturing Index . Well get to that conversation a little bit later on. We see that supporting crude prices. Oil prices more secure this morning than they have been. Global stocks set to end the quarter as their worst quarter. It has been a very volatile month and quarter. New york city reported a 16 increase in deaths in six hours. They emerge as the new epicenter to have coronavirus outbreak and europe is expected to start stabilizing soon. The World Health Organization has given that assessment. Italy saw the slowest rate in new cases in almost two weeks. It is interesting. Asian equity markets making small moves to the downside. U. S. Futures look pretty stable. Todays trading environment not at all reflective of the month that was and the quarter that has been. The extovente volatility we have witnessed has been incredible. Investors are hopeful that the worst days are behind us but ultimately it takes quite a bit of time for marks to bottom. There is still great deal of uncertainty out there. I would expect this volatility to continue. Really a lack of clarity in terms of where markets are heading. Overnight we did see that quite firm surprise p. M. I. Coming out of china. We are seeing mixed reactions to that. Ultimately when we strip away from the headline indicator, there are still a number of headwinds. Given the fact that ultimately the market that continues to be a challenge in terms of trading and global demand. It is a positive indicator but i dont think it is too much to get excited about. Matt we have just seen headlines out from w. P. P. They are suspending the 950 Million Pound Share Buyback. We have been talking about banks doing away with dividends at the request over the e. C. B. Is this going to be a market wide phenomenon that companies are going to be canceling dividends, suspending buyback programs, stopping shareholder payouts . What kind of result do you expect that to have . Ultimately this is going to have a greater impact in terms of European Banks. They tend to be more dividend focused opposed to what we see in the u. S. Ultimately this will shore up more capital on their buffers if they dont pay out the dividends. When we look to European Banks specifically, their Balance Sheets are stronger when we go back to preglobal financial crisis. We are in a situation where we dont annoy the duration of the impact on economic activity. Ultimately if we do see companies default, if we see households become more yes, these dividends are likely to provide a lift in the near term for shoring up Balance Sheets but there is still a great unknown in terms of the outlook for the European Bank complex. Anna i suppose everybody in markets is trying to get a handle on how deep the recession is going to be in various parts of the world and how long the tail to that will be. How long lasting will the effect be . Interested. The coronavirus outbreak in europe may be approaching its peak. I wonder if that starts to give investors some comfort and if they can pencil in how deep the recession gets. Do you have a sense over the timings that the market is looking at . At this stage, it is that pace of increase in terms of the infection that is going to drive sentiment. We begin to see the slope, the flattening of that socalled curve that will provide some support that we could see the economic activity. Ultimately though, i think Economic Data captures the magnitude of the depth of the crisis is not likely going to impact markets. Even when we see the economy coming back to some kind of form of activity, it is hard to gauge whether well see this bounceback of whether sentiment will continue to be strong, whether the stimulus packages a certainly it will be something that will propel risk support Risk Appetite in the near term if we begin to see stabilization in terms of inflection rates. Matt thanks very much. Laura cooper from the n. Y. Blog. You can check out the blog by checking out nylvgo on your bloomberg terminal and contribute to the question of via the f you like bloomberg terminal. Today were asking when will data matter to assets . Reach out by typing ib plus tv go on your bloomberg. Up next, mirrororing the peak. Could europe be turning a corner . The World Health Organization seems to think so. More on that story. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to european open. 50 or so minutes until the start of the european trading day. A little undecided as to where we head. Markets could be a little bit more optimistic. Looking at u. S. Futures is any kind of guide, u. S. Futures down by. 1 to. 3. Here are your top stories. The u. K. Government is facing renewed pressure to speed up virus testing. There was confusion after the government said it hit a target of 10,000 tests a day but Health Department statistics showed only 7,000 people received them. They said it was because people were tested twice. The u. K. Is falling behind its european testing piers in terms of testing for the virus. The emergency rules pose no threat to democracy but opponents the e. Sumbings probing the erosion. The white House Democrats are preparing for the fourth round of stimulus. Officials can compiled lists of request from government agencies. The proposals include more state aid as well as Financial Assistance for Mortgage Markets and the travel industry. Chinese manufacturing rebounded in march. The coronavirus outbreak spreads in the rest of the world. Despite the improvement, output remains far from normal. China faces a slump in external demand. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Matt . Matt thanks very much. Now the virus could be approaching its peak in europe. The World Health Organization said there are signs of some stabilization in europes outbreak. Hardest hit italy reported the smallest number of new cases in almost two weeks. A number of other european nations are moving toward tighter restrictions. Pain is announcing further curbs to public life. The e. C. B. Boosted its asset purchases last week. Or more, our reporter joins us now. Have we turned a corner here . Matt, that is the question. If you look at the daily number of cases and daily number of new cases, that would senate that auld signal at the very least lag. Between someone catching the coronavirus and dying from it. It is best to look at how many people are sick. That has slowed. Having said that, i would not say that youre going to see this crisis of course be with the space of just weeks. Today we have a report in the italian media suggesting that the lockdown will be further extended until may 4. When you look at the situation in spain which is the other big focus point in europe, you have a horrible week last week. A Record Number of deaths but the numbers are improving in madrid and that is a focus point of the government saying they do see signals that the numbers have become stable. Anna we watch the infections and are very aware of the way the infection numbers can be changed by testing policy over time and between jurisdiction. Let me ask you about what the e. C. B. Is doing here. The asset purchase program. Any latest information on that . We did have data on that. What youre seeing is the European Central bank is very active on the bond market. They bought a Record Number of debt last week. That went up by 40 billion euros. That probably explains why youre seeing the bond yield in italy and spain in a week, with a higher number of deaths. It is very active and there is a total the policy we had from the Central Banks, Christine Lagarde said my job is not to bring down the yields. You look at the data and the market reaction, that is exactly what the European Central bank is doing at this point. Anna thanks very much. In brussels with the latest on europes fight against coronavirus. Joining us now is the head of he Equity Capital markets at u. B. S. Raising money must have been a fairly Peaceful Place in a sense of late because the conditions maybe havent been right for companies to come to market. Do you see what is the latest state of play for european Equity Capital markets . Thank you. We have seen a change in the business mix. In a normal year this would be peak i. P. O. Season in europe and probably the reason that part of market is on hold. Were spending our time at the moment looking at potential for primary raises whether it is through the shortterm block trade to really raise primary capital for companies that need additional equity at this point in the cycle. Matt how is liquidity for that kind of business . Actually it is pretty good. I think there is a group of investors you have a longterm duration who have been effectively waiting for any kind of pullback as an opportunity to put money to work. Also there is a group of Hedge Fund Investors who have capital and are willing to look at doing that. I think we will see reasonable appetite for this story as long as corporates can really convince them that the amount of capital being raised is enough at this point. Anna let me ask you about the underlying conditions, the i. P. O. S a it this point. Volatility is not necessarily a friend of the i. P. O. Market. I was looking at the volatility and see the 90day volatility. Below level wes saw during the financial crisis. Is this the kind of thing is it volatility that they see markets for you . Yes. I think investors were talking to are looking for three phases. The first phase is the derisking phase. There are signs were at the end of that. The second phase is stabilization and the third recovery. You have to be in the latter stage of the stablizeation and into the recovery phase. If youre looking for metrics in the market that help, the vix index is right. You will probably see closer to 20 rather than 60 currently and we like to look at the credit market and look at the high yields. Matt what are the biggest problems now . What are your biggest concerns on a typical day . I think the market volatility is clearly the front and center of that. And then secondly, it is trying to judge investor positioning. At this stage, we dont know the duration of this crisis. It is very hard to understand what underlying earnings look like. Youre much more focused on a daytoday basis on technicals. The retail selling we have seen has potentially stopped. Were seeing positive signs of Pension Funds rebalancing into equity markets. I think it is shortterm a focus on technicals. Matt how are you doing with staffing, people on trading floors. People working from home, etc. . We have backup facilities in place. It is a balance between a few critical people being in the various offices that we have in locations and were using the backup facilities that we have and with technology as it is, i think the working from home model is continuing to develop but so far has been fairly successful in terms of allowing people to work a fairly orderly day. Anna i know you talk about the different stages here and were probably still in the derisking, you mentioned stabilization and recovery. Do we recover the Capital Markets that look exactly as they looked before this crisis or will they look fundamentally different . I know this is a question that requires a thesis and maybe a lot of thinking. Is this a conversation that is being had at the moment . I think it is a gradual phase. What were focused on is engageing with our clients, understanding what their objectives and shortterm needs are and trying to balance that with investor activity and investor appetite and i think it is really looking to the secondary markets for signs of stabilization which will allow us to go to the help and corporates, suspending dividends and buybacks and looking at the tools they have available to raise money and were splitting that into two categories. Tactical shortterm and then more longer term, actually what should their Balance Sheet look like and what are the right tools to get the equity balance right under the longer term . Matt if i went through the list of companies that suspended buybacks or dividends today, we would not have time for the rest of the program. Is that over for now . Are dividends and buybacks done for the time being . What are the self help measures that you have . Suspending your dividend, stopping any Share Buybacks, see how the situation plays out and then you can either go back to paying those dividends or go back to Share Buybacks. Obviously the levelses for buying back shares at the moment are pretty attractive in most cases. You have to look at the tools available and what you can do yourself relative to what the is saying. Matt as well as the naming and shaming youre going to get from the political level. Thank you for joining us. Gareth mccartney. Great to get some time with you. Speaking over the political level in some senses, were going to be speaking to chairman of the e. C. B. Bank Supervisory Board about bank dividends. Not to say that he is political but the things that he says will be certainly discussed at the highest levels in berlin, in london, in paris. Dont miss that interview at 8 00 a. M. U. K. Time. Coming up next, as europe is set to stabilize, the u. S. Is emerging as the new epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak. Well be bringing you the latest news from the virus in new york. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to bloomberg markets. This is the european open. We are just about 35 minutes away from the starts of cash trading on a day when the World Health Organization says the coronavirus outbreak in europe may be starting to stabilize. But over in the u. S. , the number of cases and the number of deaths is surging day on day. President trump seems reluctant to follow europes lead and introduce a nationwide lockdown. Here is more from new york. Good morning, matt. Thats right. New york state is one of the hardest hit for the pandemic in the united states. New york state alone, the death toll rising 26 for coronavirus led deaths just in over a day. New york city, that number was up 16 in just six hours. Now the u. S. Outbreak is not expected to peak for another two weeks according to projections. The situation is very likely fluid. Donald trump is saying that the u. S. At the moment doesnt think a nationwide stay at home order is needed but that can obviously change and just yesterday we had maryland and virginia ordering those and here in new york were seeing a lot of help is on the way. Usnc come ford is in the new york hor borrow provide regular leaf for some of these hospitals. Anna thanks very much. Joining us from new york with the latest. Up next, could the coronavirus pandemic have been prevented . Well bring you our interview with the black swan author. Interesting to get his thoughts on the pandemic. This is bloomberg. Nowadays you do more from home than ever before. The xfinity my account app puts you in control with Digital Tools to give you the help you need when you need it. Get fast and easy answers with personalized help 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Change your wifi password to a phrase thats easy to remember. Even troubleshoot your services on your own. Were working to make things a little easier for everyone. Download the xfinity my account app today. Matt welcome back to the european open. 30 minutes away from the start of cash trading across the continent. We have gains in futures in europe and the u. K. Looking at awe are turnaround there. All futures pointing higher this morning. It

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