This is a new york pandemic which frankly with the great chart the Johns Hopkins is doing and john von murdoch is doing, new york is essentially the mathematics of catalonia. Francine yes, and the mathematics of milan just outside of that. You wonder if we shouldve started preparing for this as far as resources and getting hand sanitizers and much needed medical equipment earlier. There is a pattern and we have charts charting that. Wuhan and in china in then the epicenter was italy and it is slowly moving to other countries that will have to deal with similar fatalities. Tom some doing better, others less so as well. The economic ramifications to be very clear, worldwide in the last 24 hours, the news in economic america is the furloughs to come. We saw that yesterday with a vengeance from retail. Right now, with our first word news, here is viviana hurtado. Viviana the mathematics of the human toll in spain. Yet. D its deadliest day fatalities,ing 849 bringing the death toll almost 8200. They have more than 94,000 confirmed cases. And democratse are preparing for a fourth of economic stimulus, including aid to travel and mortgage industries. Nancy pelosi says state and local governments will need more help. In japan, the ruling party proposed the biggest ever stimulus package valued at 554 billion. One third would be fiscal measures. About 1 6 of the total would be handed out to the public in a combination of cash, subsidies, and coupons. In china, this months manufacturing rebounded strongly , a sign the second largest economy appears to be restarting but it comes at a time when there is slumping demand from the rest of the world. Services and construction in china are still shrinking. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Futures up nicely, a bang out day and close yesterday, futures with elevation. , jeff to focus on oil currie coming up with Goldman Sachs in an hour or two, and i want to focus on the fact that boyle is trading in the tangible market at a lower price than the trading in the tangible market at a lower price than the quoted price. You have got to move the product and the storage issue is truly tangible. Francine i am seeing similar gains in futures. Looking at european stocks treasuries. 1. 7 , there is a raging debate in europe and a fight between italy and germany, and italy and the rest on these corona bonds. The other interesting piece of news from the ecb on friday, they were encouraging banks not to pay out dividends until october. Yesterday, our important interview suggesting they could make that compulsory. Wti, something we need to keep an eye on, rebounding after touching an 18 year low yesterday. The we are going to look at economics and finance of investment of the bloomberg world, really focusing on jobs thursday, the claims data and onto the jobs report. The jobs report will not be as grim as the thursday data, we believe. Our chief washington correspondent Kevin Cirilli is on the phone all day talking to the market he mocks. Mucks. Ety on the countless calls you take, what is the mood . I dont get that in the cable tv or big newspapers like guys. I am getting sterilized stuff. Kevin politics on pause . E. I was speaking with so many different staffers and now that the bill has passed, yesterday was a day for them to take a deep breath and exhale and pivot towards the next 60 days. Effectiveness is the threat i hear from the left and right, how effective is this economic stimulus going to be, and it is too soon for them to figure out as of now what the next round of economic stimulus will look like. Tom over the weekend, there was an uproar. When i go when i get angry with you, i will go, that eagles fan, and the governor of the beleaguered state of michigan with that woman, what is the relationship of the president with republican governors and those on the dark side . Kevin that is where this fight is headed. You identified the longterm political battle of the left and the right. The left is going to push for there to be expanded access to mail in voting over the next couple of months, especially in red states. They will say republicans are not expanding that access, but republicans will say that democrats are not willing to try to allow for there to be some work that is going to be able to go on over the next several weeks. Michigan ischigan, so incredibly important to the president s coalition as it relates to his reelection in november. Francine about the reelection efforts, how is coronavirus playing out . How popular is the president and how popular are his opponents . Kevin it has been a polarized issue, to answer your question, much like every other scandal we have seen. Sourceone Trump Campaign who told me they have the data from their rallies. Massive trump rallies, that was a for the campaign in 2016 and this cycle for them to get voter data. They already have their data. Someone said to me from the dnc, that is where this could be uncomfortable for biden because they dont have that ability. Everything is on pause for this week, but a big question for the next couple of months that we will have to be answering includes what happens to the conventions, what happens to election day and access to mail in voting, and what will happen with those debates that Bernie Sanders and joe biden were scheduled to have. Francine i was going to ask you, what happens to the convention . If the lockdown continues, could you have a convention by proxy . Kevin you could, and i think you could have a smaller scale convention. We are looking down midsummer. Weekdent trump saying last he has every intention to go ahead with a convention. Yesterday based upon my democrats,nd to some they were saying they are continuously reviewing contingency plans. Tom i have got to play the parlor game with you. We are all going nuts with this online Distance Learning of children. My brain is turning into a marshmallow. What is the likelihood of bidencuomo . Kevin i dont see that at all. I will be careful, but i was speaking with a trump source yesterday who told me they dont see that happening either. You should know what governor, said in a public appearance Governor Cuomo said in a public appearance in which he praised former Vice President biden. I dont see that happening as of now, however it is an interesting political foil so to speak, that has emerged. To focus ono has getting new york out of this and biden has to focus on closing the nomination. Tom Kevin Cirilli spending the rest of the day watching every eaglescowboys Football Game from 2006. Kevin only the ones where they won. Tom chief washington correspondent. Interviewestion, our and conversation of the day, if you are concerned about higher inflation. Mickey levy has had an extraordinary career, where he writes very terse, direct essays on the state of our economics. Let me cut to the chase, with Great Respect for the heritage of the shadow fomc cabinet in the late marvin goodfriend, should we fear inflation with its debt build up . Mickey not right now. Yes, the feder is is pumping in huge amounts of what we call Higher Powered money. Until that money is put to work in the economy, the answer is no. In nearterm, because you have declining, you will have a deflation. Tom if the solution is a massive multi dollar income supplement during what is a is theandemic crisis, solution down the road to monetize that debt build up into longterm bonds and basically pay off the pandemic over say 50 years . Mickey no, that is not the proper approach. Clearly this fiscal package, i dont think of it as stimulus. I think of it as income support on the bottom is falling out of aggregate demand. It has to be unwound. The critical question is do we pay for this . Absolutely, either in the form of higher taxes, lower government services, and even if it doesnt show up as higher inflation or higher interest rates, we pay for this one way or another. The answer is not to just monetize it, monetize it. Inflationt show up in until we get all the highpowered money but to work in the economy. When we do see an acceleration, that is when we have to be careful, and now the focus is on income support, getting us through this acute stage of the pandemic. Francine would everyone pay for it . There wouldnt be some kind of worldwide debt relief like we saw in times of war because what we are dealing with is quite warlike. A lot of heads of state have been talking about the invisible war we are fighting. Mickey when i say we are going to pay for it, what i mean is have a hugest decline in Global Economic through deficit spending and not have it be costly. One way or another, you pay for it either in terms of low will lower potential growth, higher taxes, lower government services. In a sense, this is like a war but it is really a negative supply and demand shock. A real war like world war i and world war ii, you destroyed capital so there was tremendous Capital Building after that that added Economic Growth afterwards. Following historic pandemics, you dont have that capital spend build and it takes a while for the economy to come back, for consumers to get their legs and feel confident enough to spend. I would not be surprised even over the next year if consumers are cautious, spending, but less. Francine thank you so much. We will get back to mickey leavy. Leavy. Mickey levy. Coming up, and interview with jeffrey curry, global head of commodities research. This is bloomberg. Francine in china, Manufacturing Activities saw a strong rebound in march, indicating the worst may be over for the biggest slump in decades. To 52 after asing historic low of 35. 7 in february. We are back with mickey levy. What can we read out of pmis in china . Does it mean we are over the worst and china economics contemplate how the world should do it . Mickey i dont think we are over the worst, but it can be a dem a template. The pmi jumped up to 52 but it changed from 35. ,here was a slight improvement but things are still declining from the lower levels. You could point out in the chinese report that expert workers were extraordinarily weak, which is what you would expect. Now that china is trying to get people back to work and most businesses are getting people back to work but there is not much going on, and Global Demand for chinese products is extraordinary. The rebound is going to be very slow. To seee i read going defaults in china . Are we going to see defaults in china . Andalked about the pandemic the government letting steam out of companies before this happened. What happens six months out . Mickey things were quite weak going into this crisis, and then the markets fell out. The sameincurring types of huge declines in economic activity. In coming months, it will be able to build up gradually, but what is with what is happening in europe, japan, around the world, exports are extraordinarily weak so chinese , it will be a long slog to get exports back up. Ont means it will be slow importing consumer and durable goods. A critical piece of data to follow is global trade volumes and they will decline as much as they had probably in 2008 and 2009, 20 . Tom that is a really important insight, to look at the aggregate of the trade worldwide. It has been an amazing chart for 12 years. We will continue this conversation on bloomberg surveillance and bloomberg radio. The many ways to see us on radio or digital product, including bloomberg. Com, those podcasts we love putting out. On television, if you have a terminal, tv , it is a productive way to move through your working day at home watching and learning from bloomberg tv. This is bloomberg surveillance account surveillance. Good morning, everyone, bloomberg surveillance. From our homes in new york and london. We thank all of our technical team. They have jumped through huge hoops to make this work. I am an amateur and just to see the science, francine and i are lobbying to make this a permanent fixture, like our data check. Francine im not. I am not. Blas suggesting oil south. Francine i am not lobbying to make this perfect because does permanent. Permanent. Oil yesterday at an 18 year low. Demand is being sucked out because of the coronavirus but timely is the market share fight between saudi arabia and russia with the u. S. Getting involved to lower the price and make shale producers close down. Tom what is interesting about marketstle, rbc capital wrote an essay about the tensions trying to get russia back to the table, and it does not seem to be successful so far. The other thing we are looking at is the labor economy in america. Trying to gain out those James Bullard numbers, 25 percent, 30 unemployment, Michael Mckee speaking with dr. Bullard yesterday in st. Louis. Francine it was a good interview, and a number of things we went through. Treasuries advancing, dollar climbing for a second day. Wti rising after a threeday slump. Yen, we had a couple of movement from boj, yen sinking at the end of the fiscal year adjustment. Tom a timely conversation, Mohamed Younis will join us from gallup to look at the mood of america in this terrific crisis. These days you need faster internet that does all you expect and way more. Thats xfinity xfi. Get powerful wifi coverage that leaves no room behind with xfi pods. And now xfi advanced security is free with the xfi gateway, giving you an added layer of network protection, so every device thats connected is protected. Thats a 72 a year value. No one else offers this. Faster speed, coverage, and free advanced security at an unbeatable value with xfinity xfi. Can your internet do that . Good morning, everyone, bloomberg surveillance. Thank you for being with us. What is so america, different of the Gallup Organization with their heritage of polling is it is less about the horse races, the governors race, the primaries and all of that, and more, the mood and emotions of america. No better time to speak to their leader then now, Mohamed Younis. What have you done in the last week to ascertain the mood of america in pandemic . Mohamed what we have done under the leadership of our chief methodologists operate panel data to have realtime feedback data coming in every day on the challenges americans are facing, and the future they are projected to be dealing with in ,erms of jobs, workplace, lives children at home, remote learning. We have been digging deep and expanding our horizons, talking to leaders from the white house to local government to various the healthcare industry, the transportation industry, trying to understand the challenges people are facing, what we need to be tracking, and what it tells us about the future. Americanspercent of have this evident desperation of fired, andayoff, or they are waiting for the safety net to come . What portion of america has that emotion this morning . Mohamed that is a great question. As of last week, which is when this settled in for most people, 29 of employees said their employer was cutting jobs, reducing hours, or freezing hiring. That has been rising, and we will be reporting on the latest data as they come in. Upexpect that number to come. 52 of the employees say their Financial System financial situation has been affected by cutbacks at work. That being said, americans are overwhelmingly currently in support of the rescue package that was passed over the weekend. Most Small Businesses tried to figure out how to take advantage of that. 77 of americans approved by the package that was support by bipartisan support, which is higher than most rescue packages we have seen in the past. Francine do you and citizens actually blame authorities for deaths . In italy we saw a couple of should haveg people dealt with this before. Inl we have similar reaction the u. S. And will that be against President Trump . Mohamed that is a great question and that is what we will be tracking. Americans are pretty satisfied with the actors involved in this challenge. For thet ratings are media, 44. Elected leaders are around the 60 mark and President Trump get 60 for his handling of the crisis. That predates his attempt to fasttrack coming back to work. The highest Approval Ratings are really for Health Care Workers and institutions that citizens rely on locally. Theof americans approve of role hospitals and Health Care Providers have played in this crisis so far. The other thing that should be stated is americans expect the disruption to be prolonged. Disruptions to last a few months, not a few weeks. Getting back to the point on jobs, one third of the 170 5 million workers in the u. S. Are basically out of the game as of one paycheck, so they do not have a cash buffer to last two to four weeks. 60 million americans are waking up figuring up how to pay rent. We have been tracking fears from every crisis to the right 2000ssion to 9 11 to the eight crash. Americans have been impacted by the quickness and at the highest rate, and are the most focused. We ask are you following covid . 9 11 is the only event that garnered americans attention more. The critical death rates and infection rates are the metrics that come before the curve, the worry, the fear, and the social distress. We are trying to track those. We are always looking for nonpartisan partners to do that at a granular level. To find out what we are learning, we are reporting on all of that and we are hosting a weekly webinar to the public. Francine what does it do to the democrats . How popular is joe biden right now . Mohamed so far, we have not seen a huge impact on that. The rescue package that was passed was more supported by 80ocrats than republicans, 1 of democrats and 76 of republicans. Early to think about what this means for the election. Americans have clearly shifted their focus. Hat will shift back what is key is how the president will handle coming back to work for americans. We see a partisan divide at least we did in the past two weeks for people taking the situation seriously and people feeling the need that the quarantine was needed and not overkill. Prolongs and as the president has extended the selfisolation and q