Point. Scarlett has been talking about selloff we have been seeking in oil. We were down but we are seeing crude dipping about 6 . Scarlet oil prices have been all over the map. Eventshis week, the scheduled to taken place, the Virtual Conference call that is on thursday. Friday, the g20 Energy Ministers meeting, where the u. S. And canada may start to play into the production cuts as well. As you were talking, i just down the up the dow smallest percentage move. It has been a long time since we saw the dow kind of close flat on the day. Pretty telling. Quite an amazing day. We have been talking about this all day, the volatility. No one really knows where anything should be praised. Still with us, we want to bring heinel, state street deputy cio. Lets talk about the earnings season set to kickoff next week, earnings season that people are starting to dismiss already. I am wondering what your expectations are, what you are expecting to hear, and how much stock you will be putting into it . See awe are likely to decent earnings season. The firstnd that quarter was not really impacted particularly by the united states. Earnings down very modestly, nothing compared to the topdown estimates of the macro indicators. We are starting to see the ripple through affect us, whether it is Company Earnings or choices they are making about defense control. What they are given, in terms of how they are managing cash flow. Cash flow is king and how they are thinking about longerterm and the ability to invest. We are also watching carefully any signaling action around things like dividends or buybacks. Scarlet i am glad you bring up dividends. In this kind of environment, a company would be hardpressed to raise dividends if it is also trying to do right by its workers. The optics are not great for raising its dividend. Can we reasonably expect any company to do so . Lori i think you are right that it would be difficult for companies to raise dividends. The question is, are they in a position Going Forward to sustain them rather than shortterm . In many cases, the Investor Base is reliant on that dividend three time. Delicate balancing act. As you note, each company will have to look at its own situation. What is the sustainability of that dividend and how does that play off other factors . Romaine for longerterm investors and particularly investors who gravitate towards safer portfolios, a little more focused on dividend, a little bit more focused on fixed income. What do you say to them when you see the possibility of these cuts. Sovereign bond yields at or near zero. Do you think this will all sort itself out . Lori a lot of investors do diffidencerms of the , appreciation. Ultimately, the return game. At their cash flow needs. How do you think about what your shortterm needs are, what kind of risk tolerance you have . All of those things are still basics that you cannot just throw out the window because you have a crisis. Of course, if there are clients ,ho do need that income stream we think selectively in the reaps market, there is opportunity. Local currency debt looks pretty attractive here. Careful have to be about not over allocating to any particular asset and balancing out your risk. Scarlet treading very carefully, in other words. Lori heinel, thank you for joining us today. Lori heinel is deputy global cio of state street global advisors. That does it for the closing bell. Next where miss . Is we will be speaking with the ceo of allstate. Policy premiums, we will get into all of that. This is bloomberg. Romaine broadcasting live from new york to our viewers worldwide, this is whatd you miss . I am Romaine Bostick alongside my cohost, scarlet fu. Rallied at the open. They surged within the first 30 minutes. Since then, a downward drift. The smallest percentage move since february 14. Lets get a Global Economic outlook with dana peterson. There is a lot of talk here about different leaders about how quickly they can reopen parts of their economy. There is this idea that because it was so easy to shut down, when we reopen the economy, things will go back not to where they were but that we will be able to see a recovery. It will not be like turning on a switch, it will be more of a process. Do we have any sense of what that process will look like . It really will depend upon what industry we are talking about. For manufacturing, you can see a recovery asvshaped the machines get rolling. In places like china where people are starting to return to work. If you look at other sectors, for example sectors associated with services, in particular lavel services, you might see shaped recovery. Shopping, and restaurants, it will probably take some time. People worrying about becoming infected or affecting others. Romaine can you talk about how u. S. An how you as an economist look to model that. Even as we do get up and running with regards to the economy, there are a lot of folks who probably will avoid concerts, restaurants, gatherings where they will be in close proximity to people. How do you account for that . That is a good question. It is much easier to forecast the downturn. With respect to how this is going to play out, it is really going to be determined by how comfortable people feel returning to activities like going to the movie theater, which will require more people than these small groups of 10 many officials are allowing. We are really going to have to watch various trackers like the number of people on the roads, the number of movie theaters opening, the number of stores reopening. Not students can , because thatol will determine whether parents can return to work. Scarlet determining how the rest of the world will behave when they adjust to things starting to normalize. There were a lot of questions whether china was truthful and accurate in its reporting, but when it comes to observing how the country is getting back on its feet, is there a model we can use and apply to what we think is happening here . Dana we are watching the number of recorded cases. In china, that number has already flatlined, which is great. We are also watching how factory activity is picking up. We have an Activity Tracker we are able to compare the last year. In most recent readings, china was back to the prior years level. We are watching measures like pollution, the number of people ordering from restaurants. All of these things are very important in seeing whether or not you will have the vshaped recovery, the lshaped recovery. Most importantly, how quickly all this happens. See similar patterns . Romaine when we talk about the global recovery, is it going to be disjointed . China, obviously, the coronavirus outbreak happened before anyone else. They peaked for anyone else, then you had europe. When we talk about a recovery, are we going to actually see a significant recovery in china without necessarily seeing a recovery in some of its european, latin american, or african buyers. Dana we are expecting a rolling downturn, then a rolling recovery. Certainly, the worst of the coronavirus outbreaks for china and of asia was in the First Quarter. When you look at the u. S. And europe, it is the Second Quarter. You should probably also see weakening throughout latin america, africa and the Second Quarter into the third quarter. We will have this rolling downturn, then a rolling recovery. When we look at our forecast, we ,o have a negative growth rate then a very Strong Negative rate of 6 for the Second Quarter. Start to get a little bit better. The worst ofeally it in terms of the damage to the global economy, we are expecting in the Second Quarter, certainly as the u. S. , canada, and europe are experiencing the worst of it, these large economies that are significant shares of gdp growth. The ecb doing all it can to ease financial conditions across the region. They are expected they are accepting government bonds as collateral. There is a lot of talk that they will need to move toward issuing socalled corona bonds so they can bolster the recovery and Member States can share data. Do you think that will be a reality . G7 at a know that the remote meeting today. This is all part of the discussion. It seems for the most part there is not an agreement on whether or not there will be financial backstops, but certainly there is discussion of a pretty sizable fiscal package. In germany, they said lets look euro200 to 250 billion package that would cover things like credit lines and also offer direct spending for Coronavirus Relief but also potentially guaranteeing loans to small and mediumsized firms. It seems like there is more of an agreement on those aspects. Amaine we only have about minute left. I want to get your thoughts on inflation or maybe disinflation, premuch in the context of the u. S. With all of the spending going on to prop up the economy and potentially give us that recovery. Dana this entire scenario, adding together the coronavirus pandemic plus the oil price, both of these things are heavily disinflationary in our view. First of all, Oil Prices Dropping means that ultimately it will spillover into costs for other types of energy, spilling over and seeping into costs for goods and services. Declineeeing massive for things like airline tickets, financial services. Is disinflationary despite the fact that we will see quite a bit of spending at the government level and, indeed , even consumers are spending a lot on necessities such as food. Romaine dana peterson, Citigroup Global economist. Coming up on the program, we will keep talking about what is going on with the economy. You will hear our conversation from earlier with an economist at Johns Hopkins. This is bloomberg. Romaine we are going to continue our conversation here about the global economy. Alessandro rebucci from Johns Hopkins spoke to us earlier. emerging markets have been hit very hard by the beginning phases of the crisis. We have seen outflow of capital repatriating in the united states. The epidemic is just picking up in emerging markets. As we know, it lasts for about four months. The peak is for two months. Emerging markets are much less capable of absorbing the Health Dimensions of the crisis. They will be put under extreme strain. We will start to see unprecedented activity and possibly widespread financial damages. Ura worldor, authority in you are a World Authority and real estate. It is diffuse, it is out there, not necessarily something we can touch. What is the leverage of the astem, are they exposed 1998 . Alessandro the global levels of real estate is not as diffuse and deep as in the united states. Typically, emergingmarket purposes purchases take place on a cash basis. Leverage inect, real estate is not necessarily the most important problem. However, Research Shows that impacts can be extremely longlasting. So, certain segments of megacities in emerging markets might be particularly damaged by the Health Invention the Health Damage and of the crisis itself. Italy finds itself in a very difficult situation. Economy already burdened with a huge amount of debt. Perception in italy and whether debt is sustainable . Italy was already experiencing difficulty to recover from the Global Financial crisis. Effectively, it never recovered by growth was permanently it that shock. This new catastrophe will be and help ismaging, desperately needed from the european community, ideally from the rest of the international community. There is a lot of talk about options for financial rescue. Considert is a time to. Mergency help fund helped other european economies during the financial crisis. Scarlet that was Alessandro Rebucci of Johns Hopkins university. Full disclosure, the Johns HopkinsBloomberg School of Public Health is supported by michael bloomberg. Lets get a check of your business flash headlines. Exxon mobil targeting its best known shale assets for deep cuts. 30 to 23 billion. Denmarks the secondbiggest budget cut in exxon history. The largest share of the cuts will hit the Permian Basin in west texas and new mexico. Deutsche bank downgrading general motors. Analysts warning that gm will run low on cash if production shutdowns continue for months. They say gm and ford have only 1517 weeks of liquidity to ride out the current editions. Wynn resorts is the latest company to test out the credit market. They are looking to order 350 billion in unsecured notes. It is the first such sale since open threend market weeks ago. That is your business flash update. It is supposed to be spring break right now for a kids in Public School but it looks like increasingly everyones summer plans will have to be put on hold as well. Goldman sachs says it is shortening its Summer Internship Program and delaying the start date. Typically, these programs run 10, 11, 12 weeks. Jp morgan said it is even exploring a virtual format if necessary. Everyone will still get paid the stipend they were promised when they were given the offers, even if it is not the full 9, 10, 11 week period. Romaine it is not necessarily even about the money for a lot of these folks. It is really about the experience, making the connections and jumpstarting their career. You wonder what it will be like to try to enter the workforce either as an intern or fulltime employee in an environment like this. Scarlet something we will keep a close eye on. All right, coming up, we will talk with allstate ceo tom wilson about how the company is dealing with the lack of drivers and some of the money that it will give some of those drivers back. This is bloomberg. You doing okay . Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. The xfinity my account app puts you in control with Digital Tools to give you the help you need when you need it. Get fast and easy answers with personalized help 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Change your wifi password to a phrase thats easy to remember. Even troubleshoot your services on your own. Were working to make things a little easier for everyone. Download the xfinity my account app today. Newlet new yorks rate of Coronavirus Infections tapered for a Third Straight day, stoking optimism that the pandemic may be reaching a peak in the state. We went from 53,000 hospital beds when this crisis started, governors of the effort, we have 90,000 beds available. Mean anythingt unless you have staff. Our superhero frontline individuals are in there taking care of the sick, and the people , they icus in particular again and again. Now we have a reserve of 7000 ofple, the outpouring volunteers in this country. Several thousand people have been hired by hospitals because they stepped up. We feel good about that part. This applies Company Governor would say no hospital is going for a ventilator, which is so important, but that is also a concern of ours because any spike in a particular region could require a intense number of ventilators. Needu county, they ventilators more than they did a week ago. We are constantly redeploying resources to make sure the hospital can handle the surge in their area. Lieutenant governor, you are at or we hope near the apex. We do not want to get ahead of ourselves, we dont want people to do away with social distancing, but the government taking about when and how we think about getting back to work. Have you looked at what that plan looks like. Is there a plan being developed for new york . Lt. Gov. Hochul absolutely. What the governor and i agree with is that it also comes down to testing. We do not want to declare that it is safe to go back to work unless we can test and find out. Obviously, the first would be people who have already had the coronavirus and are healthy again. If wel only know for sure can have widespread testing which, because of the number of issues at the federal government early on, the lack of testing capacity, as well as the basic supplies, we have had a shortage. If we can get the federal government to ramp up production of these necessary supplies so we can have rapid testing, there are opportunities for us to have resulted a Doctors Office in 5, 15 minutes. We have to get to that point in order for us to feel confident not having a downward trend that will spike up again, as studying past pandemics. A sixmonth phenomenon where we lost 60,000 new yorkers. Very proactive steps we have been taking. I have been focused, as the chair of all the state Regional Economic councils, overseeing economic development, i have already been in contact with the ,tatewide chambers of commerce manufacturing and others, talking about how we jumpstart the economy once we start going full steam ahead. There will be a lot of Small Businesses that just may not make it. Or theyd a lifeline now are gone forever. All the work in the state reduced unemployment, to increase jobs, we dont want to lose where we have gone. Having the conversation literally as we speak. Question,t specifically on testing. Do you have a sense of how far we are away on required testing to make the move to start opening up . Lt. Gov. Hochul we just dont have the capacity yet. If we could get the federal go