Top producers consider even deeper output curves. Shinzo abes state of emergency now covers the whole of japan after critics said his initial virus response offered to little, too late too little, too late. Shery breaking news out of south korea. We are getting the jobless rate coming in at 3. 8 . As expected, a rebound from the previous month of february. February was a 3. 3 . In the month of march coming in at 3. 8 . In line with estimates but still a rebound. Of course, we have seen weakness in retail and hospitality, employment, given this coronavirus pandemic. The government has tried to create jobs and that has helped the economy. They of course have already passed a 10 billion extra budget, but we are now seeing the jobless rate climbing to 3. 8 . This as president moon jaein has called for more aggressive measures on job creation. Of course, moons Ruling Democratic Party of korea just won the implementer elections. Take a look at how markets are trading at the moment. We are seeing big upsides for u. S. Futures, gaining more than 3 . This of course as president from Just Announced his plans on reopening the u. S. Economy, saying 29 states are in the ballgame for opening relatively soon. We are seeing also positive sentiment across nikkei futures which are gaining 2. 5 . This of course after two sessions of weakness the japanese yen against the u. S. Dollar. He restocks gaining ground for a fourth consecutive session, highest level in over a month and even a little bit of a rebound for oil prices. Of course, oil closed under 20 a barrel for a second session. Still, its around the 18 year low, haidi. Course are we of continuing to digest what we are hearing from President Trump and his really expansive News Conference at the moment, saying the u. S. Has passed the peak when it comes to new virus cases. He has unveiled guidelines to allow the economy to reopen. He says he expects fewer deaths in the nation then even the most optimistic projections. Greg sullivan is our reporter in washington. He has been watching all of this. You heard the president said he expects some American Workers to be able to return as conditions allow. Hes most recently saying it will be up to the government to announce their respective reopening plans but that 29 states are in the ballgame for opening up relatively soon. At the same time, we are hearing from jay inslee, the washington governor, saying he is deeply frustrated at the availability or lack of availability of testing kits and testing remains a real issue for that date so i am wondering how big is the gap in understanding, you know, in where things are at between the individual states, the governors, and at a federal level . Greg that is right. President trump is releasing his guidance today that shows some states may be able to return to work sooner than expected. What is interesting about this guidance is that it does put a lot of the onus on the governors to both provide testing they are seeing a downward trajectory in cases and it also gives them the power to make the decisions about whether they can start easing off on some of the social mitigation that was meant to stem the transmission of the coronavirus. Some of the up criticism about the Trump Administration with testing, that has been pretty widespread. The administration has faced criticism about the Testing Capacity. Even before these guidelines were released, we heard some state leaders and Business Leaders were actually saying they might not be able to open more robust much Testing Capacity here in the united states. Shery where are we in terms of coordination among governors in order to reopen their economies . Greg you are seeing some governors actually working together in a regional way. Some on the west coast and some on the east coast. Trump is quick to point out there are some regions that have in seen high rates of growth cases from the coronavirus. These states hes referring to when he says they might be able to open up soon, possibly even by may 1, as we heard tonight, though states do not seem to be coordinating as much but they are talking to the federal government about what they might need or what they might expect. There is a lot of talking between the federal government and the states at this point, but you definitely see some regional coordination, especially when it comes to considering how to reopen or how to ease some of these. Shery this as President Trump at that press conference he says the u. S. Is prepared for some virus cases to return later this year. Greg sullivan in washington, thank you. Lets now get to Karina Mitchell with the first word headlines. Karina. Karina good morning. We will start with japan. It is expanding its initial state of emergency to cover the whole country amid criticism the original order was too late and too weak. Thezo abe is widening declaration from tokyo and six other prefectures, which were initially deemed to be most at risk from the coronavirus. Several local leaders warned his original order left them vulnerable and some launched their own initiatives. The European Central bank has reiterated that they will do everything necessary to cope with the coronavirus, which it says is the worst crisis facing the singles market in decades. More International Cooperation is needed. Christine lagarde said policymakers are committed to helping the euro area and are ready to increase the at chess asasset Purchase Program for long as required. The European Union says it will reshape its next trillion euro budget to focus on the virus and final much of its spending in the immediate future. Ursula von der leyen said the new sevenyear plan in january will be the mothership of recovery and must be different to what had originally been imagined. She said the budget must be frontloaded to Power Investment in the initial years. The worlds Top Oil Producers say they are open to either even further output cuts beyond what was agreed in the opecplus deal. Saudi arabia and russia issued a joint meant saying they are watching the market closely and will take measures deemed necessary. They pledged more than 10 since sundays announcement. Producers would slash global output by 10 Million Barrels per day. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am Karina Mitchell. This is bloomberg. Still ahead, we will take a look at how markets are faring with Portfolio Manager jim. This is bloomberg. Shery the scale of the recovery facing china will be revealed later when First Quarter gdp growth is expected to show an historic slump. Data from march is also expected to reflect a deep contraction in retail sales, investment, and industrial production. Tom mackenzie joins us from beijing. Even predictions of double digit contraction for the chinese economy. What is the consensus right now . Forecast, we are looking at a contraction of 6 . That is yarn year for the First Quarter. Of course, that will be by far the weakest we have had since about the late 1970s. It could be much, much worse than that. Bloomberg economics is saying contact as much as 11 . If we are talking about the period of time for the lockdown china imposed to hold the virus they close all the schools across the country but also most factories and shops as well. Those restrictions were only used until the end of last month. Some of those restrictions remained in place. We will get a more granular look in the month of march. Retail sales are expected to contract about 10 year on year. If all of 6. 2 . Investment is expected to contract by 15 . The economy is getting back towards something looking like full speed. Bloomberg economics points to a back to work rate of 95 . Investment has picked up. There has been a push to stimulate domestic demand. Officials say we will need longerterm growth targets. For context, the imf expects china at 1. 2 this year. How effective has the policy response been . Should we expect any kind of change or approach in the messaging . Tom policymakers are being quite consistent in saying they are going for a targeted approach. They consistently say they want to avoid stimulus that could exacerbate financial risks. In terms of what has been done over the last few weeks, they cut the repo rate in march. They cut the mending facility rate by 20 basis points. They cut the reserve ratio for banks by 50 basis points. This week, another 50 basis points mind up. The pboc will cut the Interest Rate it pays on excess reserves. In terms of the credit data for march, it is in record levels in terms of financing and new yuan loans. It has been having some effect. Whether it is enough is of course the key question. Loan prime rate is expected to fall on monday. Bloomberg economics expects a total of 50 basis points in terms of cuts by the end of the year and also other measures on the fiscal front as well, but clearly, this is key, trying to get those targets, economic targets, whilst avoiding a massive buildup of debt. Our Bloomberg Markets coanchor, tom mackenzie, in beijing, with a preview or briefing ahead of the chinese gdp numbers. The virus pandemic has taken a heavy toll on economies around the world. U. S. S fed president sees gdp shrinking by 4 to 5 this year. Robert kaplan spoke exclusively to bloomberg about his projections for the Second Quarter. View is basically the same as it was two weeks ago. I think we will have a substantial contraction in the Second Quarter. Annualizedd publicly 20 to 30 , so annualized it by multiply it by four. We will continue to grow into the fourth quarter. I probably would say today that peak unemployment may be closer to the mid to high teens, so maybe higher than i said before. We still believe that we will end the year with an Unemployment RateSomething Like 8 , 9 , or 10 , but in that range, a challenge going into 2021 will be the work to work at Unemployment Rate rate down. On a planet rate down. Unemployment rate down. If you take mr. Bullard saying it will be a sharp v and mary daly saying this could drag into next year, the recession, where do you put yourself on that spectrum . Worry. Here is the here is the challenge. Going into this situation, we had sluggish manufacturing, sluggish business fixed investment. Globalad to do with weak trade but the one thing going for us is we had a very strong u. S. Consumer. A low Unemployment Rate, household Balance Sheets are in reasonably good shape, and that was 70 of the economy. The challenge is, as we come out and if, later this year, the Unemployment Rate really is 8 to 10 , you will have a weakened consumer who will save more, be more careful, be a little bit more reluctant to spend, and that is going to be a headwind for the economy, and it may take a while, and i mean into 2021, for the consumer to get his or her footing back, and i think that will be dependent on how quickly we can run down this Unemployment Rate to lower levels, so do i think it is going to be a v . I think the consumers situation makes me think we will have a recovery and it will be a solid recovery in the second half of the year from the levels we are at. We will have a 4 to 5 contraction for the year, but then the question will be what is the pace of growth and what is the state of the u. S. Consumer . Those are the questions and that is the issue i am most worried about. The psychology of the u. S. Consumer is not simply being more conservative because they got burned in a downturn but being concerned about their personal safety. How willing are people going to be to go back out even when they are allowed to do it, to go to restaurants, to go out and spend, we participate in the economy . Robert so theres three levels of issue with the consumer. One is personal safety, as you mentioned. This is why testing, ubiquity of testing, is so critical. If you have widespread testing at scale, i think that would do a lot to give consumers confidence to go into the workplace, to go out to restaurants, to go into other public gatherings, but that is very much dependent on how available is rapid testing. The other two issues are job insecurity. You know, i saw a survey from the new york fed that said Something Like 70 of workers are worried about their jobs. About losing their jobs, so there is that insecurity, and then the last issue is just what has happened to the consumer financially. Particularly, that segment of the population, which is sizable, that does not have much savings, and lives in paychecktopaycheck, and this is going to make it so they are even more cautious, so those are the three big issues that affect the consumer. The dallas fed president , robert kaplan, speaking exclusively to bloomberg. Amid one of the most uncertain Earnings Seasons ever, the barrage of profit downgrades has started to ease for now. Citigroup upgrades nine, minus downgrades has edged higher in recent weeks after reaching its lowest level ever last month. Lets see if our next guest is so optimistic. Joining us now is Portfolio Manager jim paleo. Great to see you. At acurious, isnt it, time where it global recession is all but certain, that you get all sorts of doom and gloom when it comes to forecasting, and obviously, the backward looking data is pretty horrible. Markets are pretty much looking for a reason to rally and go back into bull territory. In terms of this earnings season, is it a matter of how far the earnings have to fall as opposed to whether they fall at all . It seems like it would not take much for investors to feel positive. You are absolutely right. This reporting season is going to be horrendous so we are going to see some of the worst downgrades, you know, in recent corporate earnings history. Do remember, the reason the equity market wants to rally is because, you know, this downgrade or this recession, the demand shock is a force to demand shock because of the virus outbreak. You know, consumers are not allowed to go out and spend and that is why Everything Else needs to be shut. We have caused this recession. On the other end of this, if we come through this varietys virus knocked down period, we have something to look forward to. There is a lot of stimulus that will be spent. For investors really trying to grasp how bad is it and do we see the light at the end of the tunnel, and which in my opinion is actually how quickly this knockdown can be lifted, and how well we are containing the virus at this point. Haidi we see the likes of new zealand potentially as early as monday talking about an exit strategy for its knockdown. Quite unusual in how strict and how early they went to lock the economy down but i am wondering, is it enough to see individual economies are covered . Is it enough to see a robust recovery in china for markets to rally, or do we really need to see more of a global upturn given how intrinsically linked global trade and businesses are . Look, absolutely. For the stock prices or equity markets that go back to the peaks we achieved 1. 5 months ago, certainly, we need to see a global recovery, which we dont expect for at least another 12 to 18 months or even longer. However, you know, based on the scale, theof the travel within china, once the sars outbreak was contained, Domestic Travel picked up considerably because after lockdown, people wanting to go out and spend. The exitct that once strategy starts taking place, once restaurants are allowed to open, the more consumer facing businesses will actually do reasonably well because it is human nature. The consumer wanting to go out and spend, and that could see more micro domestic economy doing better than any sectors that have more International Exposure because i do think that internationally, things will be discretionaryhan spend within the local environment. Be a can there sustainable Market Recovery without Oil Prices Stabilizing . Jun bei that is a really good . I do not think so because oil creates distress if the oil price can remain as at such a low price. I do think the confidence in oil at this point, it is somewhat inated to the confidence containing the virus as well as a clear path to recovery. See, you know, the strength coming back to the oil market. The production cuts are in place, however, the demand shock has created a significant amount of demand, so you know, even with a shortterm cut, that will not be upsetting. What is needed is for demand to pick up. It might take longer than the Consumer Recovery because you need a Global Demand to pick up. Six to 12 months. Oil has come up a lot, and it will probably stay here until we see a sustained recovery. Other how will oil and assets be affected by the strength we are seeing in the dollar . Jun bei look, i think the strengthen the dollar is often reflective of investors risk appetites. Lack of risk appetite, when people are taking flights to save havens, you can see gold prices rally as well as u. S. Dollar rally, and that creates a lot of pressure for other Asset Classes as well as different, you know, emerging economies and the like, so my view is if the equity market starts to recover, have a sustained recovery, we should see the Dollar Strength coming off as the capital starts moving into other higher return assets. When it comes to o