Global deaths from the coronavirus reach 300,000. While cases continue to fall in europe and the u. S. , alarm is growing in asia over a potential second wave of infection. Stocks and futures gain even as data from china shows a slower return to normal than hoped. Focus turns to german gdp numbers. In just two hours. Looking for a drop of 3 in the first quarter. Sanofil macrons berates for suggesting the u. S. May have hurt access to a vaccine. The frenchetween president and the drugmakers ceo is scheduled for next week. Just under an hour away from the start of cash equity trading in europe, lets take a look at futures. Gains of 1 acrosstheboard. A rough dayhave yesterday in european stocks. Closing down 2 . Then a turnaround in u. S. Stocks. That has now rolled around in asia and that market optimism is prevalent in european futures. Not been u. S. Futures. Little change. Anna . Anna a little bit of breaking news. In london, this would be of some relevance. System, aand transit funding package agreed based on the assumption of 1. 6 billion pounds sought for extraordinary support. We had some reporting around this yesterday. By the way can i just anna a snapshot of what we have seen. Yes. Please jump in. Not a very frequent user of the young london Transit System. Matt i just saw london wants to put 2 billion euros into the Transit System and i worked out new they could buy 400,000 vespa by 125 scooters with that money, which i recommend is a much better way to get around the city. For 1000 euros or pounds on ebay , you only need your learners permit to commute to work. It is a lot more fun than sitting on the tube. Anna this is useful information. This is news you can use. Thank you, matt. Other modes of transport are available. Lets get back to the markets. Session coming through in the asian session. Australian markets are higher. Talk of stimulus in japan. Indias battle against coronavirus continues. Asewhere, we do see a bit of surgeon commodities coming through. Saudi aramco cut back on sales. The market showing signs of improvement. We did have a volatile day on wall street. Futures now looking fairly flat for the u. S. Session. We play catch up with the latter part of that session we saw in the u. S. Yesterday. Lets move on with the market conversation. A host of data points out of china. A mixed picture. Get to laura cooper, r Bloomberg Markets live macro strategist. We wont ask you your preferred mode of transport. But that is an ongoing conversation. Let me ask you about the data coming out of china. China is ahead in terms of dealing with the virus. Many people looking to china for data guidance. What we are seeing is factories are back in action, but retail sales are sluggish. Exactly. I think we can take cues from the chinese data as for what could happen. Saw in march and april data Industrial Production , manufacturing data is not as bad as many feared. ,he retail side of the sector determined by consumer spending, that is actually proving to be quite sluggish. That captures the fact that manufacturing can be turned on. But ultimately, what will guide economic cover recovery will be consumer behavior. That is something that will certainly guide risk sentiment in europe and the u. S. As these lockdowns are increasingly lifted. When we look at problems for em, the dollar on the top of that list. The dollar reign supreme in a lot of investment and market discussion. You were talking about the possibility of an ouster for the u. S. Dollar as a reserve currency on the mliv blog today. Who could be the candidate for that . I think what prompted this debate was really just the speculation we could see negative rates in the u. S. And the knock on effect that would have for the dollar. My response to cut the dollar is that reserve status not much could shake it from its throne at this stage. Ultimately, when we look at Central Bank Holdings of the dollar, it has remained relatively steady around that 60 mark. The next nearest competitor, the euro, is only around 20 . There really is a lack of alternative at this stage. Nearly half of imports globally are transacted in the dollar. Treasuries remain firm. See whatlly hard to could shake up that system. This will be a slow, glacial trend to see any type of alternative. Anna in a couple of hours, we are going to get the german gdp numbers coming through. We get a just of what march looks like. Expecting to see from germany . We are expecting to see the largest economic contraction. One month of the lockdowns. At the same time come and entered this pandemic from a position of relative fragility. Every sessionted because we had these u. S. China trade tensions. It is starting from a position of weakness. Certainly not going to face the same type of economic destruction is elsewhere in europe. Shift tosals will now this fiscal spending capacity. They have released a package of 7. 5 gdp. Will that be enough . Will that be effectively deployed . Of thet what the shape recovery will be like. Matt laura cooper from the bloomberg mliv team, working from home, i assume. But when you do get back to your commute. I lived in london for three years and for the first few months, i endured the tragic 45minutes logging on the tube from sloane square. You are packed in early in the morning with a ton of people who are going somewhere they dont want to go and it is dark and dank and depressing. Then i got a vespa and my 45minute commute went to a 15minute race down the embankment. It was so much fun and i look forward to going to work every day. It became a positive, uplifting experience, rather than a march to my death. That is what i suggest. If you have a chance. Good to know. Very this is indeed a motivational material. Thank you very much, matt. To being is not supposed fun, it is supposed to be endured. Matt that is so british. Let me get to the bloomberg first word news right now. Here are todays stories for you. The coronavirus pandemic is reviving the worstcase scenarios for the u. S. China relationship. President trump said he does not want to speak with his ,ounterpart, president xi adding that the u. S. Would say 500 billion if it cut off ties with beijing. It comes as china post lockdown recovery gains see factory output rising betterthanexpected, three. 9 . To the highested in more than five weeks. Allies as opec and its start scaling back crude shipments. According to petra logistics, the cartel cut exports by nearly 6 Million Barrels per day by the first two weeks in may. The International Energy agency says the outlook is improving with demand belittle stronger than expected. Unveil aidet to packages for the auto and aeronautics industries. The governor government has already promised 18 billion sectoro back the tourism as they work to reopen their economy. Klm, the Oldest Airline in europe, and renault have already obtained billions in loan guarantee, but their operations remain depressed. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. In a . Anna . Anna ive just been sent a very good piece. A street battles all about redefining urban space in a postlockdown world. He was coming in from west london on the district line, wanting to point out that real commuters thats all im saying. Matt, lets say what is coming up on the program next. We will talk about what shape we can give to the recovery that no doubt lies ahead. Will it be vshaped . Will it be ushaped . Or can we lend another shape to it . This is bloomberg. Welcome back to the European Market open. Looking for a bit of a bounce at the start of the european trading day. In the end, positive session over on wall street. Lets talk about the recovery of the global economy, shall we . Nvestors and economists they cannot seem to agree, but those hoping for a vshaped economy may have been disappointed. Guest andned by our he has his own view. Good to speak to you this morning. Symbolnk a square root might be useful in this case. Perhaps that backwards square root. Recoveryall, but some and then not back to where we were. Absolutely that is what we think. This is a very uncertain situation. Our basin area is a scenario where we have a sharp fall followed by a recovery that will not go in a straight line. Recovery willhe be a little bit less than the slope when we had the activity drop and the end result might be a little bit of a loss of activity in certain sectors. What i want to emphasize is that it will depend very much on the sector. It will depend very much on the region. There will be a wide variety. Sectors will s. Erience some ws, some u there will be a lot of diversity in terms of recovery. Matt which sectors do you think well have the best recovery . I think sectors like the i. T. Industry are experiencing good results. Some other sectors that would be in trouble are hotels, airlines. There is nothing really surprising about it. I think there also might be a little bit of a gap between the supply side of the economy, the production, and the consumption. For example, this is something we have observed already in the chinese data this morning. Do you mentioned technology. One of the themes a lot of people interested in tech are , office space, cars, i wonder whether that kind of thing goes out the window with the virus. Other parts of technology. Education technology. They are the ones that do well. I guess you have to be selective. Absolutely. I could give you another example. Telemedicine, i dont think we have ever used as much as we have recently every it as we talked generally, it has accelerated some trends that were already in place in the economy prior to the covid19 crisis. I could mention three of those. I was already mentioning digitalization in the use of technology. It was a First Experience and it works. A concern about sustainability is a very important thing. There are already some scientific studies done to show the relationship between the climate situation. Last, but not least, it will reaffirm the emergence of china. It had obviously started with the dispute on trade, but i think in the year of a president ial election, this is something that is going to accelerate in 2020 and beyond. Matt let me stop you there because we are going to talk about, im going to bring you back in a moment. Im going to talk about the interesting region alipay. We will talk about german gdp. Of Bangka Lombard oda stays with us. The German Economy could see the worst drop in gdp since 2009 for the first quarter. We will look ahead to todays data. This is bloomberg. Erg. Matt welcome back to the european open, just under 40 minutes to go until the start of European Equity trading and u. K. Equity trading. Ftse futures up 1 right now. Cap and dax futures up as well. So, we do see gains here. We get a reading of german gdp this morning. By the most since 2009. Germanys export reliant model was already creaking before the pandemic. , the cio atier banque lombard odier, is still with us. What do you think about the german reading . It looks back looks bad. Bloomberg economics thanks they can easily borrow money, invest, and make it through unscathed. Stephane absolutely. People are ready to pay them. What is very important in this regard is that they have a good use of money and they invest in their infrastructure. I. T. And health care. They improve going forward. A sector that is going to have a lot of difficulties going forward, but they need to reinvent a different model going forward. What kind of highfrequency data are you looking out when it comes to the euro in economy. Lifting lockdown measures and what impact that is having on the ground . Tophane so, in order evaluate and which kind of scenario we are vshaped, thisped, w or whatever data is very useful. This is thing such as air pollution, consumption. Inlook at Traffic Congestion the large cities. We look at data on mobile phones. Soon as you activate the tracking on your mobile phones, we can get a sense from telecom operators, what is the mobility of people . To economica points activity which is picking up or the first area where it picked up in asia and china more precisely. We are starting to see signs and europe of picking up of people mobility. A bit more Traffic Congestion in the cities. A bit more air pollution. About commuting to work. When i come to work, there are a bit more traffic jams. Matt let me ask you about europe right now. I know your strategy is to rebalance away from europe into u. S. Stocks. The main reason why we rebalance away from europe is sector allocation. Indices haveu. S. Much more industries that are industries of the future. Lower. Ere little bit where we dont see such a good future. Anna thank you very much. We just had numbers coming through. Precision engineering business. Q1 income dropping by 89 yearoveryear. Also because apple is their biggest customer. Hard to see on tv, but an interesting function. Matt my favorite. Anna thanks to Stephane Monier for joining us. We will talk about the fight around the vaccine for covid19 coming up here. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to Bloomberg Markets, this is the european open. Let me tell you what you should be watching for today aside from the equity open. The third round of brexit talks between the u. K. And the eu is due to come to a close today. Euro Group Finance minister meeting. Oniewing the progress made economic safety nets agreed to at the april 9 reading. When we get filers. We will be keeping all of our eyes out for u. S. Retail sales and Industrial Production data today. When you say 12 00 p. M. , i always struggle. It always takes me a minute. If you just say noon or midnight, it is so much easier. You know . Anna it is. We will try to keep it straight forward the future. Lets turn to much more serious matters. The fight for the vaccine seems to be pretty ugly. Company ceo suggested the u. S. Could be in line to get hold of the drug first. Sam, great to have you with us. Virus nationalism seems to be something that is present in this debate. Others talk about the potential for the vaccine as a public good. Where did we come down on this argument . How have you been thinking about this . I think there needs to be a lot of emphasis on a whole host of people in the room to deal with this. It is such a complex situation. We are arguing about who is going to get the first dose and we dont have a vaccine that has shown efficacy. This is going to be the most complex thing the world has to solve and, unfortunately, it is going to get uglier before we get a solution. The challenge is this. I mentioned the first time and i have to say the ceo of sanofi is an outspoken person, a straight talker. Whether he specifically meant the u. S. Will get the first doses are not, but he has been one of the few who has constantly said it is not about getting the vaccine first, but the bigger challenges is getting the manufacturing scale up. Imagine you get one, who do you give it to . What do you do with it . You get 500 million doses . Who do you give it to . Part of your nation you vaccinate . You know, developing a costly is also a endeavor. It costs one billion or half 1 billion. The reasoning for getting the u. S. Hade was that the put its money where its mouth was. Thead invested and taken risk, earned the reward. On the other hand, our colleague on the Bloomberg Opinion side points out that the french taxpayers also give 150 billion terms of taxt in benefits. So, who is chipping in the most here . Sam who knows . How do you calculate these numbers . With the u. S. By grant giving bodies have been giving, it looks like they may have been the first to hand out that money, but then you go to the u. K. For example, you have the institute Whose Research is funded by charities in the u. K. You come to france, you have the same thing. The problem is, lets forget this discussion between the u. S. And europe and u. K. , what do you do for africa . What do you do for middle east . What do you do for a whole host of Asian Countries who have not had the opportunity or need to fund any of these things . Do we just ignore them . Obviously, 1 billion of development for a vaccine is a large number for today. Manufacturing will cost a multiples of that going forward. Companies areical very profitable, good, strong cash generating businesses. They canhis one time prove their worth to society by developing a vaccine and literally giving it to people and allowing it to be used at least for the pandemic at a cost base. Sorry. I know that some people are looking at the hiv example in the different deals on pricing. Worldfferent parts of the , you said Something Interesting about production. Production facility be ramped up now . Even if we dont have a vaccine to produce . Should they be ramping up production at this point . That is a great point. That is exactly what the company doing. I think that is happening. Im not sure how much the governments are involved in this, but that has been happening. Governments dont own manufacturing facilities. Fund the can do is to cost of running some of them or switching some of them. If companies have to switch manufacturing from their current products they are using to manufacture the vaccine, they are losing profits somewhere else. All that has to be taken into account. But this equation has to be solved with everyones involvement. Thatant just assume everyone who puts the first bit of money and gets the first to go. That would be the ugliest thing humanity has done in a long time. Although it probably would not be the first time. Sam fazeli, thanks so much and for joining us. Bloomberg intelligencew director of research for em ea. Already an incredibly hot debate that will certainly come definitely continue. We hear trump talking already about pulling production of pharmaceuticals out of asia. He is not the only one, of course, talking about that. Up next, and other debate. Luce is going to quadruple josh lufthansa is going to lufthansa is going to quadruple flights next month. Next. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to Bloomberg Markets, this is the european open. Just under 20 minutes before the start of european cash equity trading and in the u. K. Deutsche lufthansa will quadruple flights next month as the restrictions these. They plan to operate 1800 roundtripper lights per week in june versus 400 right now. The number of flights they are offering would usually total the daily pe