Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open July 12, 2024

Coronavirus cases top 2 million in the u. S. As the number of infections rise in texas, california, and florida, all recently reopened states. Not even thinking about thinking about raising rates. A dovish jay powell sends global stocks and treasury yields lower. Most fomc measures see rates zero through 2022. It raises concerns about the real state of the economy. Nd capitalizing on chaos Goldman Sachs makes 1 billion from the oil market turmoil. Drivingp sees its bond trading revenue. Big on europe. We are seeing futures. 2 losses point two losses on the indexes. Most of the major indexes were less than 1 . Drops in the u. S. After that fed meeting. Jay powell saying hes going to keep rates at zero through 2022. It looks like the market is now concerned about the strength of the underlying economy considering those comments. U. S. Futures down 1. 5 in terms of the dow and the s p. Anna in terms of the underlying economy, concerned also about the rise in the rate of infections in the united states. The futures picture looks fairly negative. By Australian Market down more than 3 . Other markets not far off 3 . The japanese nikkei down 3. 8 . Resurgence trends in the dollar. Days and days of dollar losses have been part of the theme of recovery we have seen for risk assets. Now we see a reversal. The dollar is considerably stronger. A host of other currencies moving to the downside in response to investors seeking safe harbor, perhaps, in the u. S. Dollar. A classic risk off system across asset classes. You saw that in the press conference with Jerome Powell yesterday. That continues to be a theme through the Asian Session as well. Oil prices weaker as you can see. Risk assets reacting in that way. Let me just get to some breaking on the g through some breaking news coming through from unilever. Unilever has emerged, this is the u. K. Arm and the dutch arm of unilever, the two headquarters if you like, planning to merge and unify the groups legal structure. Unileveron under the plc is the best option. No change in dividend policy. Y will apply for an added interesting to get these comments at the same time they are giving a q1 sale flat as ignore that bit. That is older. Let us focus on what they are saying about unifying the Group Structure. We will get further updates on that. We have been talking about risk ,ff, global stocks retreating fear of a second wave of coronavirus in the u. S. Lets get to mark cudmore. Good morning. It does seem as if there is nervousness around a second wave in the united states. You have been talking for a while about the way the numbers ngve been taking ticki up. If we are talking about a second wave in developed markets that had reopened, we could see a game changer. I think that is true. There is debate how much this is a second way for the fact the u. S. Never got on top of its problem in the first place. In the u. S. You have to remember a large majority of the numbers were from new york. New york has done a great job of controlling its virus program, but most of the country never got on top of those. A surge in some states like texas and florida which had seen reopening. I dont know if they got it under control in the first place. We are not yet seeing a big problem in those countries that have done a good job with the virus seeing a second wave. But yes, as we talked about last week, global case started reaccelerating from around may 18, which would apply that from around june 10 we should start getting fatality numbers up. The number in for tallies, the trend started higher monday on the seven week, 14 day, and 21 day moving averages. We are seeing that trend picking up across the world. I think thats why we are going to get this virus pessimism returned to the market over the next week or so. Matt it is tempting to pin the drops in yesterdays cash trade in the u. S. And asian trading futures on the virus concerns, but this all happened during the feds press conference, mark. It is interesting that when jay powell says we are going to keep buying 80 billion in treasuries, we are going to keep rates at zero through 2022, we are not even thinking about thinking about raising rates, and then you see stocks tank. Why would that be the case . Im not sure it has tanked. It has come up little bit. The fed delivered what was expected. Battle. Oing to be a we are seeing equities lower again. There were a number of reasons why the market was likely to come lower this week. One was we had just seen capitulation. The jobs report last friday. The nasdaq going to a record. Suddenly the shorts were out with less force buying. Now suddenly we have a resurgence of the virus, scaring markets at a time when we are more lightly to get, and the market the fed was saying it was harder to surprise positively. It was more likely they would disappoint. I think it is exactly the expectation, but we go back to the underlying trend, where we expect profit to last for a week or so. This is not a return to lows in equity markets. It is just saying we have had an incredible seven or eight weeks of gains in the equity market. Youre talking about the equity rose 2 rash, the s p where it was five days ago. Equity futures are still up. Really we are just taking some of the sheen off. That will be the trend the next week or so. We will see u. S. Equities lower, theres no panic. Nejra anna what is the markets live question . The shortterm markets retreated into dollars and into treasuries. What are people saying . Think the fed did not really change the game. They did not disappoint the market, but they did not surprise positively, which means you are going back to what you are thinking going into the meeting. Perhaps the one asset that has an extra boost from the fed is gold. I think they delivered a perfect storm for gold in terms of, they are saying, look, we are going to keep rates superlow, we are going to keep buying mbs, keep buying treasuries. Also, to emphasize the gold trade, we are seeing that virus fear pick up again. I think suddenly gold is getting all the quantitative easing boost and it is getting a little bit more risk aversion boost at the same time. In the last few weeks, gold in dollar terms has stayed high. Gold in other currency terms has been decimated. It has been a terrible few weeks in nearly every other currency terms. Now i think gold is ready for another week higher in the wake of the fed meeting. Matt mark cudmore, bloombergs mliv managing editor. You can join the debate on todays question of the day. We are asking, what is the best opportunity after the fed reach out to us, reach out to the mliv team. You can do that by typing ib tv. Let me get back to a story that anna was just breaking moments ago about unilever. There are a number of companies that had a dual headquarters structure and trade in different exchanges, most likely for tax purposes. Sda is one. Shell is another. Unilever was one of the biggest. It plans to unify its structure under a single Parent Company. Unilever says it will do so by combining the london and amsterdam share classes. It is going to be increasing its strategic flexibility for the portfolio evolution. Im using the pr speak in the story. Removing complexity and strengthening unilevers corporate governance. We will continue to bring you further updates. Urther updates. We are prepared to do what it takes and to stay the course with a very expansionary economy of policy stance. Outcomeere is a better in the economy, they will reconsider. There is no guarantee the policy rate will be a zero for two and a half years. Pretty clear they dont see any need to pull back for any of those Financial Stability concerns. That is just reinforcing the zero rate policy. The signal was, we are not going to let companies fail, so you may as well jump in and get involved. You do not want to undermine the economy to deal with what might be a bubbling equity market. There is at some point in time you have to think about what that means for broader Financial Stability. They are not there yet, but i would not be surprised to see them get there. The fed should stop pulling punches just because a lot of benefits are going to shareholders. What it really cares about his maximum employment. The fed will play its part but it is not the only game in town and im not sure it is the permit or game in town at this point. Reacted tohow guests the latest Monetary Policy decision. Sent an Jerome Powell message that the central bank will keep pumping stimulus into the u. S. Economy until labor market has recovered from the coronavirus pandemic. The fomc says it will increase holdings of treasuries and mortgagebacked securities at least at the current pace and hold rates at zero through 2022. We are joined by the cohead of Capital Markets at Deutsche Bank. Henrik, thisting, is a strong message by Jerome Powell. As a central banker, committing yourself out another 18 months, this is a big step. You are removing optionality. In a sense you are tying your hands behind your back. Otherwise you risk a situation down the road. Exactly. It is mirroring with the ecb said last week, which is that the Central Banks are going to do whatever is necessary to stabilize markets. If you look at the message, there is both a bad and a good thing there for the markets. The bad thing is clearly the central bank is going to face much longer than six months. The good news is they are committing to stimulus, which is part of what the technical is in markets. It, tonteresting, isnt see the market react to both of those thoughts, to have to go through that process. I wonder what you think of the tools the fed has available to it. Is yield curve control something those that you talk to think is realistic . Is it happening already or is it inevitable here . It is interesting. I was looking at the charts yesterday. Andou look at credit curves yield curves in the u. S. , generally they are steeper in the u. S. Then you have in europe. That is because there is less stimulus at the middle and the back end of the curve. There is absolutely more they can do than flatten the curves if they need to. Options. More policy anna stay with us. We are going to continue our conversation shortly. The cohead of Capital Markets at Deutsche Bank stays with us. Coming up, m a. Takeaway beats uber to acquire grubhub. We will talk about m a and other trends we are seeing in Capital Markets. Ital markets. Anna welcome back to European Market open. Looks as if the start of the trading day will be down. Concerns about a second spike of the virus in the u. S. A slightly gloomy assessment of the economy recovery prospects from the fed. Lets talk about m a. Grubhub. Com is buying for 7. 3 billion. The deal creates one of the worlds biggest Food Delivery Companies at a time when the coronavirus is driving a surge in orders. Henrik, i guess this is one of the sectors the m a team at Deutsche Bank would be looking at for resilience right now. Perhaps no surprise we see m a there. What is the outlook at the moment . A veryink you are seeing quick resurgence in leveraged biopsies, which is unexpected. A month ago, most of the sponsors we talked to were focused on their own portfolio and cutting costs. There has been a 180 turn. Most of them are thinking about unspent capital they have, looking to deploy it in a wide variety of sectors. Online intech is the most successful sector of the locked, but with the private approach last week by Consortium Private equity, you can see telecoms is another one where theres a lot of interest. If the world is awash with cash, the corporate world at least, and wealthy individuals as well, with rates at such a low level and Central Banks basically printing money to use the colloquial phrase, do you think inflation is a concern at all . I think it is a great question. It is related to the unspent capital the private equity firms have. Every type of asset is getting inflows of the moment. The inflows and returns of the bond market are back to above where they were at the start of the year. On the Capital Market side, being the most frequent issuers right now, we are seeing volumes of more than 50 . We are within 52 billion of the fullyear numbers for 2019. Clearly that amount of money being created could drive inflation in a normal economy. We are not in a normal economy, though. Isa not think consumers and corporates are going to be spending a lot of money. , theast in the short term fear is deflation rather than inflation. You seeat role do private equity playing here . Formerlyo paul zucker, a mpc. He now has Risk Management responsibilities. He was talking about how private equity has been bailed out twice in two consecutive crises. I wonder if private equity has the image rehabilitation goal in mind here. Play . Le can p. E it is another great question. Has turned into a broad asset class. Andsed to be very nichey you get accusations of looting. If you look at the part of the economy that is owned privately, not just equity companies, but investment groups, it is about the world across the world. It is a reflection of what is going on everywhere. Some companies are being supported and getting equity injections. Others are dissolving. But i dont think it is anything particular about private equity. Another sector when you talk about reputation, banks, after having been through a very rough time obviously in the financial crisis and being bailed out, the good thing is working in a bank right now, banks have done what they are supposed to. Geting very hard to try to cash to clients that need it. Matt Deutsche Bank yesterday said Second Quarter low loss Loan Loss Provisions were 800 billion. Every bank has been boosting Loan Loss Provisions like crazy for obvious reasons. Are you concerned that we are going to see a wave of bankruptcies, especially among the small and Mediumsize Enterprises that are so important to the economy . Absolutely. That is where the real disconnect from this Financial Markets and main streets. When you look at what markets are doing, they are setting new records. I agree with your correspondence. This is just a little bit of a extraordinary we have seen. It is not reflecting the concerns i and many people have about the state of the midmarket who are not able to access equity or Investment Grade bonds. That is where the paid is going to concentrate. Areprograms that exist doing their best, furlough programs and so on. Wave still going to be a of defaults out there. That is why Central Banks are so focused on keeping the support. Anna we had a guest yesterday talking about small and Mediumsized Enterprises finding it difficult to get the money they need. , we have seennies quite a lot of that in europe. Do you see that continuing through the year . Unfortunately for us, we are at a peak. In eurosion issuance for 2020. The second half is going to be less busy unfortunately. A lot of people that need money have already gotten it. Anna matt it has been great having you with us. Appreciate your insight. As we see these big moves by Central Banks as well. We are going to talk more, focus on the u. K. Next. A long list of potential mistakes in Boris Johnsons lockdown strategy. Lockdown strategy. You doing okay . Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. Anna half an hour until what looks to be a very negative session in the European Equity markets. Ftse futures down by 2. 3 . Considerable weakness at the start of trade. We will look to that and also u. S. Futures similarly moving lower. Not quite the same levels, but still, down. Futures down by over 1. 4 . Inl look for any those. In terms of the agenda, Angela Merkel speaks with the chinese premier from 9 00 a. M. London time, strengthening relations is the key topic of conversation. We get the italian Industrial Production data add 10 00 a. M. After slumping in march, april is expected to be tougher for the sector due to strict lockdowns, of course. In the u. S. , weekly jobless claims at 1 30. Figures have been coming down but they are still at extraordinary levels. Ministers arence meeting to discuss the eu recovery package as well as who will be the next president of the euro group. Football or soccer depending on where you are, fans will be pleased to learn the game is back. Today is the turn of spains league to kick off. Been watchingas german soccer. 70yearold professor in ohio watching german well, football. People need sports. The pga comes back today, so i am pumped about that. That starts, what, 8 00 a. M. In the u. S. , i think, 2 00 p. M. Here. I think im just going to see how long i can subject my wife to golf this afternoon. Now, Johns Hopkins University Says the coronavirus cases in the u. S. Have reached 2 million. Moreumber of u. S. Cases in than double those reported for brazil. The country with the second highest number of infections. Localized surges have raised concerns among experts about a new wave of cases as many states ease social distancing rules. Joining us to discuss from new york is annmarie hordern. Run us through the latest pandemic numbers and the commentary. Everyone is j

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