Exists, goes. Meeting,he big fed take a look at the 10 year we are down to 58 basis points, going back with that handle. Earlier in march when the 10 year dipped below 50, a strategist said, i am no longer writing about the 10 year because it is nonsense at this point. I push this story forward to see what the fed has to say about this. Caroline lets push it forward to next week and get jonathans perspective. How are you looking at a week where we headed bloomberg . Next week, we get big earnings. Where are the areas of the market that are unloved that could be opportunities . Jonathan if you look at one area that is interesting, it is going to be the financials. If the economy is better, if we get a vaccine earlier, it is going to be that group that is going to either continue to anchor the market lower or if this does relieved to the upside , that is a group that could do better and there is a disparity between credit spreads, which are saying, no one is defaulting on a loan, everything looks fine, yet the banks are not behaving as if you have the same type of optimism that the Corporate Bond market is telling you. Romaine also looking forward, there is Economic Data we will get next week. A lot of this data becomes backward looking but we have that official gdp number for q2. We will get a closer look at the personal income, personal spending numbers as well as sentiment. When you look at Economic Data points we have gotten, they seem to suggest, the more recent ones, that the economic recovery has stalled a little bit. How concerned are you about those data point . Do you think the economic recovery that appeared to be well underway a few weeks ago is still intact . Jonathan i think that is going to be the big story and i dont think it is a summer story. It is a big story as we go into september and october. When you turn off the lights in your room and put them back on, all of a sudden, you cant believe how bright it seems. But after a short while when your eyes readjust, you realize it wasnt as bright as before the lights went off. What is the analogy here . We are starting to see that the job losses are not improving, the weekly claims that come out on thursday are basically flatlining. You are not getting better. Jumpsm, which had a big and was above 50, it will probably go a little higher, but when we get into september, the sequential improvement is probably not going to be there. See bigwe are going to bursts off the bottom, the market has responded to that, and that is what we have seen. This is what the market is telling you. For the last six weeks, we have a flat equity market and we are talking about what happened this week, that is the last time we are at these levels. We see further the acceleration in the Economic Data, i think the market will have a harder time surging forward. Taylor one thing we love about getting you on this program is you have the place target for that year end of 32, according to the bloomberg terminal. That is right about where we are now. You talked about being range bound within the next few weeks. Did ux text to be range bound until the election, until we can get some clarity here . Jonathan i think that is the story. Aheadk the market got way of the idea that the government would provide stimulus, that the economy is going to reopen and data would get better. We got this 40 jump off the bottom and then i think i realized that we have gotten all the good news out already. I think it is going to be much more difficult for the Economic Data to surprise to the upside. If you look at the supplies index, it is in the stratosphere. It is going to be weaker over the next couple months and i think the market is going to have to adjust for the fact that we will move forward but the pace of the move forward is not going to be like what we have seen in two or three months. Caroline there live too happy with us. Have a wonderful weekend. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is up next. Look at the future of Online Education. This is bloomberg. Caroline from bloombergs World Headquarters in new york. Romaine this is whatd you miss . Caroline we have the s p 500 falling for the year, down 10 on the day. The nasdaq the outperform. Technology led lower. A race against the clock at the 600 a week lifeline for Many Americans is set to expire. We hear from claudia sahm with more next. Secure virtual seats. The k12 ceo on the future of Online Education. All that and more coming up. Taylor so much more coming up, particularly in washington. All the markets are waiting for a stimulus package. Decision toells draft the new stimulus relief bill seems to be backfiring. Boost is readyk to expire. Oining us is claudia sahm great to have you. What you see now as some of the most likely scenarios, whether it be an extension to those Unemployment Benefits if we cant to cant come to a permanent deal . Claudia first, thank you for having me on this afternoon. I am very concerned. There are some that scenarios. A 1 trillion package, 100 a week in jobless benefits, that would be disastrous for those families and communities and Small Businesses and it would be bad for all of us. That is the downside. The upside would be another multitrillion dollar package, bigger than the cares act. We can do a lot. Congress can do a lot to stabilize this economy, yet the pandemic under control, and get us on a path where we can begin to rebuild. Romaine what do you make of this idea that Congress Keeps having to go back to washington and back to renegotiate some sort of extension or renewal of these provisions . Has been talked about having some sort of automatic program, once we hit certain threshold, you would get these payments, this additional support. That would take away the uncertainty and mystery out of this for a lot of folks. How do you do that and would it be effective . Be highlyt would effective and we know how to do this. Take the types of relief that we do and every recession, the extra jobless benefits, the money to state and local governments, the rebates, put them on autopilot. It is extremely hard to know what is coming over the coming months, let unknown let alone the coming weeks. Relief packages should continue until people are back to work. It is fine to phase them out completely once the jobless rate is back down. Take the guesswork out, let congress focus on the crises that are not like every other recession. It is critical and we can see the cost of having Congress Come back together and renegotiate. Lets not waste time. Caroline certainly the calling of many. We were talking with the naacp ceo earlier, talking about the need to get things done in the senate and not nitpicking too much. Peoples money in peoples pocket, the more money to stimulate the economy. Whether it is 200 or 600 have a 3 trillion package, we are missing the mark. President and ceo of the naacp saying we should not nitpick whether it is 200 for relief or 600. You said 100 is too little. Where are we likely to get copper mice that can be stomachs by the republican and pushed forward by democrats as well . Claudia i think both republicans and democrats, it makes sense to go big, go fast, get this done before the release expires. Hamilton. Th professor we should not this is not the time to target. It is one example. The rebates are back on the table, both sides agree. Dont mess around with targeting income. Just do what you get again. It worked. Treasury has all the information ready to go. People would have that money in a week. Dont get fancy. Dont get innovative. Just put trillions of dollars of money out. It is worth it. Taylor some of the pushback is that some local businesses, i believe the treasury secretary has talked about this, they are having a hard time bringing people back to work because there is a disincentives asian to come back and says a disincentivize and to come back. How do you respond to that . Understand the experience in this crisis, it varies across people. I have friends that own Small Businesses and they are having trouble getting people to come back and do work, work that is not pleasant work. I get it. That is frustrating for Small Businesses. When we look at the data, when we look across the country, on average, it is the lack of jobs, not the jobless getting paid too much, that is standing between us and the labor market and the economy getting back on track. I agree that Small Businesses should be getting more support. I think the Payroll Protection Loan Program has been a big disappointment and i think they have to do better. Get money to help Small Businesses and get money to help the jobless, kill this virus, get us to the other side and people will have jobs to go back to and people wont be so out of the labor market that we again pay for it for over a decade. Romaine race to get your thoughts. I wish we had more time with you. Claudia sahm of the Washington Center for equitable growth. Up, gold trading at 1900 for the First Time Since 2011. We will speak with the head of commodity strategies at citigroup who forecasts that the price could go even higher. This is bloomberg. The fact that rates have gone down, that means emergingmarket rates and corporate debt can also move down. The second thing is the amount of money that the world bank, the imf, these other organizations are putting into these markets to enable them to pay back their debts and reduce infrastructure spending, that is another thing. Themselves,ountries they have been increasing spending, the budget deficit is going to be greater. That has also been pouring into the markets. I think it is a combination of these things that led to an increase and interesting thing is gold has done just as well as the equity markets. Although gold lagged since the beginning of march this year to now, gold has flagged the s p 500. If you look at the fiveyear numbers, it is the same. Gold has gone up about the same. Low in fiveom the years. We are in an interesting situation where people are looking at stocks to preserve their capital because stocks will adjust to inflation and also gold. They are hedging their bets. Im glad you brought that up because when i look at real yield, in the u. S. , and i look at gold, that is not say v shape. In terms of expectations, we are 100 basis point off where we were a few years ago. How do you reconcile that . One thing you have to remember, when Interest Rates are high, people will tell you, you are holding gold, gold does not pay interest. When Interest Rates are zero or near zero, then gold is an have becauseing to you have to worry about not getting interest under gold and you see the gold price will rise as uncertainty in the markets are rising. One of the other interesting things about gold and i have not looked at the numbers recently, what the supply coming out of the mines is going to be with covid. Output shouldmine be declining for gold into that puts additional pressure upwards on the price. When you look at the latest u. S. China stats, does that diminish significantly your appetite for chinese asset . Should we assume we will see more fights between china and u. S. , china and u. K. , china and europe and other countries or regions . Mark we factor that into our calculations and china is important, along with brazil, china and india are big for us. China, Chinese Companies in a separate light. We look at what the global nonus activity is. Example, holly Bob Financial Services has now teamed up with photocall in south africa to provide Financial Software and apps. This is the kind of thing happening. These Chinese Companies are moving globally to places where they are not going to be affected by the situation in the u. S. That is where we have to work look. Get there,ore we gold, are you buying it at these levels . Mark i would be buying now and continue to buy. What about silver . Silver followlso, gold. But gold is the most important. There, mark mobius speaking on buying gold, i am silver. The latest data crossing the wire now shows net long positions on gold, the most bullish we have seen in 14 weeks. Ounce, taylor keeps reminding us, the highest level we have seen since 2011, 21 shy of its record high. Koshy s now, a cash a cash dicey aakash doshi. Thanks for being here. Im looking at the futures contract out there right now. You go out to december on them. They are already above that record high that we hit. A lot of folks seem to believe somewhat what you believe that gold will reach a higher level than where it is today. Goingestion is, what is to drive that increase from 1900 to 2000 . Aakash i think driving that increase to 2000 in higher is the investor flows half of the of room to go, it is not just on the gold futures aside, if you look at the etf inflows, they are not only at a record pace but the holdings are making new records every month you are seeing the liquidity in the gold ribbon is market grow dramatically this year versus 2019. You are seeing investor inflows into gold, it is a small asset class compared to bonds in equities as far as dollars invested. There is room there. To the extent Inflation Expectations in the market continue to improve, you look at more negative real yield, that could be part of the story. What has been the big driver in july and why we have seen a spike, we are starting to see dollar weakness and this is a different environment for gold then we saw in the second half of 2008, even though gold performed during the financial crisis, in the second half of 2020, the dollar weakness is having a good denomination effect for gold, which has made record levels in all other currencies in the past year, except that u. S. Dollar. Caroline if we are going to be buying it now, do you buy into gold or silver . Think both Precious Metals are poised to rally. A lot depends on your macro view. Silver is potentially set to perform as well. As much as gold, but it has its own dynamics. China has been importing a lot more silver than gold. Gold is more linked to delivery. I think prices for both could rise. If you are a true believer in the global reflation narrative, if we get positive axing headlines and is ongoing Global Growth recovery in emerging poised for aer is catchup trade and even as both gold and silver continue to perform, you could see silver outperform the yellow metal. Demand i am focus on the side of things as caroline was talking about the supplyside of Precious Metals. You bf out with a note today saying you will see limited supply growth as they restrain. How much of this story is a demand story versus a supply story . Aakash if you are modeling Precious Metals like particularly gold, it is usually a demand story. Supply for gold is likely to contract this year at the production level. You discussed earlier on your show regarding covid19 disruption, we pencil in somewhere around 5 mine production declines this year versus 2019 for 2020 globally. Growth, youply probably see recycling pickup as economies reopen, meaning consumers will look to recycle some of the gold that they have on hand and you are likely to see mine production rebound in 2021. Ironically, gold supply does not tend to correlate the same way to places as other commodities do. It plays a part but it is more of a demandside story for gold, andicularly from investors also what should be a rebound in retail demand in the coming quarters. Caroline wish we had more time. Thank you so much for poignant data on a day where gold continues to break new highs. Thank you very much. Now a quick check on the rest of your business flash headlines. The worlds Biggest Hedge Fund firm is planning to cut jobs. Wont needed same number of staff as more employees work from home. The most eternal reports the firm has laid off several dozen employees. A deal will almost double the number of businesses the energy serves across u. S. And canada. Markets, it will permanently close its stores in new york city. The retailer will also shut three other u. S. Locations as it makes its way through bankruptcy proceedings. The first meant had location, the retailer shuttered for bankruptcy in may as it works to navigate the impact of the coronavirus and crushing debt. That is your business flash update. Ing up, coronavirus sages cases surging, the u. S. Preparing for Virtual Learning this fall. This is bloomberg. The prospect for in Person Learning this fall is dimming as coronavirus cases spike. This leads schools scrambling to plan. K12 has been doing it for 20 years and it is the longest Online Education provider in they do as educating 120,000 students nationwide. Nate davis joins us now, wonderful to have you without. You do a balance, you try and find that balance between remote and in person education. What is the best balance . Nate i think it is the future of education. Technology in the classroom, technology at home, then just traditional classroom interaction between teachers. And less50 technology than 50 in the classroom is a good balance. For sure, teachers are the key. 100 of the student interaction has to be led by a teacher. Teachers are critical to our model or the brickandmortar model. Preparedare teachers to teach in a world where it is primarily online, through these platforms, rather than in person . Nate sadly, no. Most teachers in america and the world are not really prepared for what our kids are doing. Every child has some kind of device, almost every child, have a device in their home. They are playing online games, they are using apps, they are communicating through devices, they are texting. Teachers are not prepared across the country to do this. Some teachers are, there are School Districts who are advanced and using lots of tools. But there are too many teachers that have not been trained on how to monitor and