Gold price you look at. December futures are the most heavily traded, and they are closer to 2000 than 1950. It is a conversation as well as real yields continue to grind lower. That sets us up or what you are looking at into the fed on wednesday. What else can they do to offer more . In the meantime, we are waiting for fiscal stimulus in the u. S. What can they deliver and when . Guy that is a question we will learn about in the next few hours. We have this announcement from Mitch Mcconnell, we think that will be around 4 00 eastern or a little after that. It will be fascinating to see where the republicans are and where the democrats are. We know where the democrats are. How big of a gap will there be and can they close that by the time we get towards recess . Alix the other news is the virus, certain areas of the world shutting down again like in spain. Hong kong more restrictions as well. Getting apping after second round of u. S. Funding for an experimental vaccine for covid19. Taking off its late stage trial. Says youny fauci cannot know until the fall when it works. We want to welcome mo dernas ceo stephane bancel. Great to catch up with you. Know until not november at the earliest if the vaccine works, when you think we can reach herd immunity . Stephane that is a great question. Thank you for having us. If you think about the timelines, we started this morning building phase three. We have almost 95 in the u. S. , we have spent a lot of time to map out the science where there lot of infection because we have 15,000 people receiving vaccines, 15,000 receiving placebos, and with this in mind based on the infection rate. You could have data in the november timeframe, it is possible you could have data in october. That is not the base plan, that is the best plan. When this happens, based on the data, the fda could decide to give us emergency approval and make the vaccine available in the u. S. For people in the highest risk, the elderly, while the workers fda approves ways approval of the general population. We raised 1. 3 billion dollars in capital in may 2 investor materials, equipment, new team members that train them. As we speak we are making as many vaccine as we can with the goal of making 500 million doses in 2021. Can we talk about how easy it will be to attract the necessary demographics within the test . How easy will it be to it tracked those to attract those vulnerable demographics, particularly seniors . Are people coming forward and wanting to take part in the test . Too early tois know about the phase three, but over the last week we have had people across the u. S. Asking us to come into a study. We have had diverse groups, both hourly, africanamerican, latinos, and so on, which is very important, because we want to make sure the study alix this might be a silly question, that is your vaccine and antibody vaccine, is that a t cell, how it work . Vaccine thatis a is able to activate t cell and see cells. The t cells are used for memory. What we have shown in the human study that was published in the new england journal of medicine thateeks ago is neutralizing antibodies around four time people that have been naturally infected, and we have also shown t cells, which is a good sign for the consumer vaccine. Phase three. N the guy we are seeing other vaccines producing a t cell response. Is this going to be one of the key differentiators you think as to whether or not we get an antibody and a cellular response. Is that going to be one of the areas people will receive it need to differentiate . People are actively looking to the differentiation now because we do not have any more data. , thebody is trying industry, the regulators, to map out what we know from the phase , and are only a few the real test everyone will have to go through is to run 30,000 participants of phase three study, placebocontrolled, every other person getting the vaccine and every other person getting a placebo. People have to guess whether phase three will be the real test. Alix how do you price the vaccine . Guy we have not communicate stephane we have not communicated the price. We have communicated we intend to make a profit. Overnvestors have invested 2 billion to get the technology to this point. An additional 1. 3 we need to get a returned to those investors. At the same time, we know it is a pandemic and we want to be very responsible for pricing great we plan to underpriced these vaccines, especially in the pandemic phase. End havingwe might two price over time, very low price during the pandemic, and then a higher price during the end debt might phase. In all cases, even the endemic price that could be higher, will be in the range of existing vaccines. At moderna we have a broad platform, more than 20 programs. We have said all along we did not intend to maximize profit on this vaccine. It would not be right thing to do from an ethical standpoint, and we want to make sure the vaccine is available to everybody looking for vaccination. Guy do you think it will be . 50 19. 50 . That is the deal pfizer has taken with u. S. Government. Will you have to come in under that price . Stephane we have not disclosed price. Well make sure theres a lot of value for the health care system. We will reflect those grants and the final pricing. Alix part of what you priced it at and even if you intend to make a profit has to be equipment. I wonder where the supply chain issues you are noticing as you are moving forward with this. Where are having to pay more for stuff . Can you give us some insight into that . Stephane for manufacturing we have our own plant. Switzerland they are already making the product for commercial use. Switzerland able to make product for the u. S. [indiscernible] including access nobody was planning in their 2020 budget and manufacturing plans for a global pandemic. As hard ass working we can to increase manufacturing capacity. In the u. S. , the government is coordinating supply because companies today are buying a lot of vials. If your vaccine does not get approval, it will have no loot no use for the virus. This is where the government can be helpful to make sure we work ensure as board so we many vaccines as we can around the world. There is already concern some people are not going to want to take the are not going to want to take the vaccine for the virus. Taking apeople will be two dose regime, how many people will be taking a one dose regime, and how big a demographic are you going to be in the latter category. If you have to take two, it will be more problematic to get people to sign up. Stephane yes and no. This is such an incredible disruption to our lives. We have never seen a pandemic like this on a global basis like we have now. None of us have seen that in our lifetime. All of that has been disrupted from a health standpoint. We personally have friends who have lost loved ones in the last six months. Ur lives have been impacted kids are not in school anymore. We have to wear face masks. I think the motivation of people will be much higher. Flu,u look at things like depending on the year and the of peopleyou have 70 using the vaccine. It is hard at this stage to estimate how any people will be using the vaccine, but i think the disruption is so profound i would anticipate a lot of people , especially people at risk. We know the elderly are very comorbidity. I would not be surprised if in 2021, a lot of people around the world will be willing to take the vaccine to go back to a normal life. Alix thank you very much for joining us. Ceo stephane bancel. Thank you for joining us on Bloomberg Television and radio. Coming up, much more on the Market Expectations for vaccine and what it means for government stimulus here and across the bond. Well be joined by the ubs chief strategist. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, i am guy johnson. Alix steel in new york. This is european close on bloomberg markets. Lets turn to what will happen later on in the united states. We are likely to see Mitch Mcconnell unveiling the gop plan for the next round of stimulus out of the united states. A lot of moving parts. We still have to negotiate with the democrats. It is critical for the u. S. Economy that some sort of a deal is done. Chiefbaweja is ubss strategist and joins us to discuss this and some of the other things. Lets start with the stimulus and discuss the implication. U. S. Politicians have got until august 7 to thrash out some sort of a deal. You expect the deal to get done, and what are the implications of those politicians falling short . Market surprised more for the deal peeling done the deal being done, and i think we will get something close to one trillion in terms of stimulus from the u. S. That is the market expectation and our base case. If you do not get that, the market will be disappointed. The markets care about fiscal and monetary as well. If we do not get a deal going, the market will worry about what the unemployment situation in the u. S. Will be, what the growth situation in the u. S. Will be, especially as mobility is clearly not getting as fast as it did between april and june of this year. Mobility gains are flattening out. The market will begin to worry about monetary and fiscal impulses. Incremental spent or think mental Balance Sheet from the u. S. Coming down. That will be a problem given everyone understands markets have been trading good if youre disappointed with that, i think that is a problem for valuations. Alix is at the same across all Asset Classes . To me that is a much more pessimistic view of u. S. Growth despite the stimulus. Bhanu absolutely, that except as we know, sometimes when things are poor for the u. S. Economy it does not translate into a much weaker dollar. You start to worry about Global Growth than sometimes the dollar strengthens. In this case we think the euro continues to power on. We think of this as euro strength rather than dollar week as because if you think about what cnh is doing or what large markets are doing, brazil, mexico, and asia, the stock is not appreciating. It has been a euro rally, it is first and foremost pinnacle rally, which predates the dollar weakness. There was a desire for diversification of income, and the desire has intensified, which is your second point. Can real Interest Rates go down . Of the decline in real rates nominals have done nothing in the last three months. Iuestion reduces to can think that will become tougher and tougher because breakevens have given back nearly 80 of their weakness at a time when twelvemonth brent has given back over 20 of the weakness. I think they have about 10 more basis points, beyond which real rates in the u. S. Are unlikely to decline aggressively. The 30 year is well below 2012 lows, which is 40 basis points right now. The 10 year is already closing onto 2012 lows with volatility much lower. It is difficult to see how real Interest Rates continue to collapse along with the fiscal impulse being slightly negative from here if we do not get that back the package i was speaking about, you worry about the incremental monetary being small and your fiscal being negative and that is where valuations can thinks if weston get a weaker dollar that will be an impulse for investors to want to look at u. S. Stocks. I am wondering whether or not that works this time. If we do see europe as being a relative area of safety, we see a strengthening currency, we see a number of tailwinds driving europe. Which way across the atlantic will money flow . Bhanu this is a crucial point. Strong dollar was not a problem for u. S. Loans. The dollar has been strengthening for the better part last five year and the s p is handily beaten everything else. It has not been about the currency and i not think it will be about the currency. It has been about the sectors and that the u. S. Has tech and pharma and medicare in large parts. Are 51 of sectors the index. That is why the u. S. Index has done well. In the structured asset allocations, there is no reason for them to change. Im not talking about the u. S. Economy, im talking about the s p, i am talking about nasdaq. In the near term there is a possibility that is the dollar ors against the euro rather as the euro strengthens against the dollar, i think people will move a little bit into the value trade and allocate away from the u. S. Into australia, into japan come into your. Im not sure people will go headlong into emerging markets because i do not think the value trade is that strong, but there could be a strong rotation, a factor rotation to a value, technically and instructor evaluation. The u. S. Stock market is still far and above the biggest overweight. Alix that seems to me you are still a believer in longterm tech. You saw what happened to intel last weekend microsoft on a slight earnings miss. H on the dip, is that what this is . Bhanu without a doubt. There is a shift away from goods and commodities toward services, that was always the case, that was the case more than 10 years. This pandemic testing to gilly accelerated. This pandemic has significantly accelerated it. We be downgrading some of these companies to neutrals because we want to be conscious of the valuation. The gains we are making an clout , the gains we are making an ecommerce sales are still in the early stages. We talk about gainers of 25 to 30 40 while pure lets offer 30 rce to sales are still being done in bricks and mortar. Some of the changes we have seen recently came in places where the virus is not a big problem, ecommerce changes are sticking. Between quality stops in and quality stocks in general guy an aggregate, are we in a situation where stock investors are still being too optimistic. There is the possibility the trump tax cuts get reversed, theres a possibility we will see sales taxes imposed on the tech sector, there is a possibility globalization will make for these big Multinational Tech Companies life much more difficult. How will that trickle down into the bottom line and is the market too far ahead of itself in terms of profitability expectations . Bhanu a completely different question and the answer is absolutely yes. The market is expecting a lot in terms of what kind of Earnings Growth we are likely to get and also in 2021. Even on those expectations, which seem to be quite high, multiples are extremely high, which means realistic multiples even higher. Between now and the u. S. Expect some consolidation. In the u. S. And also the new world, but potentially more so in the u. S. Because cyclically the u. S. Is in much worse condition than is europe or china. That will matter near term. We are looking for some consolidation given a rotation within the u. S. Away from growth to earnings value as they present a different political outcome in the u. S. If we think of this is a market spending, not breaking, certainly the u. S. Market because of what we said about the sectors, we think the market is bending, not breaking. ,ongterm, globalization automation has much more dire consequences for emerging. Arkets those markets are where we would be thinking about good optionality in the medium term. Alix you said a couple times it is about your strength and dollar weakness. Where does that leave emerging markets . China, youre of not seeing growth being very strong. Unlike the u. S. Where we were discussing real Interest Rates have plummeted and you have a fiscal deficit depending on whether or not we get this the kind of steroids the economy has in its veins does not compare with emerging markets. Of the biggestne drivings of earnings for these countries is extremely weak and likely to remain weak for significant length of time. The one place where earnings expectations are most unrealistic is emerging markets, which is why im certainly not recommending investors to buy the value trade in emerging markets. In the mediumterm, there will be serious questions about the a rethink not just in terms of valuations. Guy always a pleasure. I appreciate your time. We appreciate your time. Thanks for spending that time with us. Bhanu baweja of ubs, thank you very much. We are approaching the end of the day in your. Just getting some news out of germany. Germany is to have mandatory virus tests for risk area arrivals. Unclear whether or not that includes spain. The u. K. Over the weekend making a snap decision to impose a 14 day quarantine on arrivals from spain. The travel stocks being hit. That is how european stocks look going into the close. More details in just a moment. This is bloomberg. Save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, you only have to pay for the data you need, starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. 5g is now included with all new data options. Switch and save hundreds. Xfinity mobile. Guy 30 seconds to go until the end of trading for european stocks. It is been a tough day for travel stocks. Let me show you what is happening. The broader picture. Ofking up of the past couple hours. Off of our lows, but we have seen seen some outperformance. Midafternoon we nearly got back to flat for fading a little bit. It has been a reasonably choppy session. We are obviously into the difficult days of summer. Volumes are light, it is a huge week. In terms of the individual markets, we had a recently positive evo survey from unix. T provided some soulless soulless for investors in germany. Still i fairly tight spread between it and the ftse. Just kind of tracking sideways. I think we are waiting for a sense of direction, a clearer sense of direction as the week regresses. In terms of the individual sectors, lets show you what has been happening. A little bit of outperformance coming from the tech sector. A key business. The Mining Sector has done well. Gold continues to push up toward 2000. Bottom end of the market, i mentioned it is happening in the travel sector. Down 3 . Much worse numbers within that sector. Let me show you a few of the individual stocks. We saw the news of the weekend, and terms of the u. K. , the story surrounding spain. That may be further extended. Now we are getting news out of germany. The whole situation seems to be very much in flux. Iag, we are definitely going to have problems on longhaul. Obviously, the spanish and ryanair reporting numbers earlier on. Ryanair cut costs aggressively, doesnt see a return to profit until next year. Ryanair and its cfo to get his take on what is happening. It was an interesting conversation. Thee were talking about story they need to deal with. The real fear is what happens with a second wave. That is the real nightmare scenario. We caught up with the cfo earlier on. We are planning to carry about 60 million customers in our business, which is a 60 reduction on what we carry last year. As you said, we had a very difficult quarter where we made a loss of 185 million euros. Q2 are somewhat lower. Me through what impact t