Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20240712 : vimarsan

BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss July 12, 2024

Lamb weston, that was one of our stocks of the hour. Down 11 . I dont know what is going on over there in the 209. Taylor i am never going to live that down. That is good to know. On a more serious note, some of the industrial companies, 5757. R at a spot intraday basis down to about 31 basis points or so. Keyink 54 will be the next resistance level. The flight to quality we have seen, given the fed and some of the weakness we have seen in earnings. Shawne still with us, matthews. It is earnings season and we are getting into it with some of those large mega cap Tech Companies. There is high expectation but also a general sense that given their size, given their market dominance, they really cannot lose. They will have the Revenue Growth and have Margin Expansion there is really not a reason to be afraid of what they will say or report. Do you buy into the i guess teflon nature of some of these names . I think it can last for a while. If you look to the nifty 50, that lasted for quite some time. I think your earnings will go down 10 . I think you will start to see that the government will try to go after some of these Tech Companies to break them up, which clearly will have negative connotations. I think at this point in time, they feel safe because their earnings power is there. They will be able to have pretty good guidance on what will be the future. But i think there will be external shocks that really are not priced in yet. The overall market is not pricing in any type of election cycle mentality at this point in time. Once that starts to happen, midaugust to late august, you will start to see potentially some of these stocks which are high flyers pull back a little bit. Taylor i am trying to go back to something you said earlier about dollar and the reserve currency. Goldman sachs came out with the same call this morning, the growing debt, higher inflation, showing that investors, again, not tomorrow, but 25 years from now, are worried about debasement fears, what the dollar can do given the massive debt and deficit we are running. Our investors ready for that . Its the first time we have really seen people and investment banks question the dollar as a reserve currency. Shawn i dont think they are ready for it. But that is the long term. We are talking about a couple of decades or at least a decadeplus. I think the market is very much what is going to happen in the next quarter or so mentality. But you are starting to project out what our debt to gdp can be in 10 years. I keep coming back to a number that would have been equating into an emergingmarket company emergingmarket country. That right tail. If we think about the right tail of growth for the u. S. , it will not be as high as it used to be. It used to be you would come out of a recession, be able to pay down the debt you incurred. If we look going forward, if we come out of a recession, we will be growing 2 or 3 . So that has drastically changed the upside potential for our economy which over the long haul has implications. The reserveoking to currency status of the dollar, you are looking in liking gold. Are you thinking crypto . Shawn i am not. I need a currency to have a military and tax authority. Crypto, i still dont understand. That doesnt mean it will be accepted over time. But i just dont think it is accepted yet. Romaine dont worry, a lot of us dont understand. Joe weisenthal is coming back soon and that is all we will be talking about. Earnings crossing the wire here for starbucks. The estimate was for down 42. 8 . I guess you can call that relatively in line. It is saying, looking forward, it sees the covert impact to be moderate, meaningfully, in q4. A little bit of a Forward Guidance. Company shares down about a fraction here at the moment. Outill see if we can find more detail any moment. Caroline lets talk oreos. The secondenue for quarter just ever so shy of expectations, coming in at net revenue, 5. 1. This is still a company that we have a single sell recommendations on and. Second quarter organic revenue up almost 7 . Boost in dividend come up 11 . Coming in with better thirdquarter adjusted earnings per share, 1. 06 fors estimates of 1. 03. Revenue coming in at about 4. 8. Net revenue at about 2. 4 billion for the Third Quarter. We are looking at payments volume down about 10 . On a Constant Currency basis, Third Quarter crossborder volumes that he 7 , slightly ahead of estimates again. I think we do need to jump in and redo these press releases. Romaine starbucks, a little bit more information. Total comp sales very much in line with estimates, down 40 worldwide. International comp sales did that are than what analysts were expecting. China comp sales still down yearoveryear but better than what analysts were looking for. The company saying that the negative impact will begin to moderate. Caroline and moderate meaningfully. We want to thank, none other than shawn matthews. Always great to have you with us. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is next where we will be digging more into the earnings and also the fed decision. This is bloomberg. Caroline from bloombergs World Headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. Earnings coming fast. We look at a market that closed on the downside. Five hundred. Investors searching for guidance from the fed as we look for the key Rate Decision tomorrow. This is the central bank extends most emergency lending programs by three months. Could intels delay give a boost to other chipmakers. All that and so much more coming up. Romaine quite a few earnings crossing the wire. 5. 1oreo maker coming in, dollars, slightly ahead of estimates. The company saying it will not provide a fouryear outlook because of the a full year outlook because of the covid crisis. Visa also saying it will not come out with a full year outlook. 7 in afterhours trading, pulling down others as well. The company also giving an outlook that fell short of estimates. Starbucks, betterthanexpected report, q3 comp sales down 7 . The estimate was 42. 8 . The company saying that the negative impact on the covid19 crisis will moderate moderately that moderate meaningfully in q4. Taylor i know that we need to look to the fed for some stability in these markets. A chart of the massive rally we have seen in the 10 year yield. Dropped by the most since march on a monthly basis. After two more months of rising yields. In march, yields fell from 150 down to 67 basis points. You are seeing some big moves. Biggest monthly moves going back since march. I want to bring in some insight. What do we need to hear from the fed tomorrow on treasury rates, yield curve control, or are we already in it . For the most part, it looks like the bond market has already bought into the work for longer. I think what you will hear from the fed is a cautious tone. Willhe most part, they stick to the script and remain cautious, especially in the context of rising tensions with the u. S. And china. They are going to tee up for potential policy changes at upcoming meetings. Romaine talk to me about this spec dacula rally. This spectacular rally. Does the fed continue to ignore this given that you have a market that continues to push more into negative territory . Does the fed have to of knowledge this in some way or another with regards to their benchmark yield . Respects, theme market was doing their job for them. This could be a deflationary environment, a dramatic amount of demand destruction. Cutting prices, inflation expectations. Around 150 basis points. The market is already pricing in for the potential of Forward Guidance linked perhaps to inflation. That inflation is going to run higher than normal. The market is doing the job. Clearly, the concern is on the absolute level of real yield. Not a positive sign. Many would say neither is the sudden desire to be getting into gold. Saying deflation is actually a picture we will see in the near term. Subadra i think this is more of a disinflationary event. I dont see any nearterm catalyst for a rise in inflation. Isna, what you are seeing supplyside coming back, demand starting to come back. I think that prices will continue to come under pressure. This is more of a disinflationary deflationary environment. All you need is a little bit of growth come a little bit of positive news. That potentially would lead to higher inflation. Taylor this comes as we have about a 58 basis points low on the 10 year. Where investors are looking for yield rates at record lows. Are being forced to take risks at other places. Appreciation in credit spreads in general because of the implicit fed backing provided through their primary and secondary Corporate Credit facilities. Taylor do you see some of this risktaking going on even within we justifiedr are on the 10 year . Subadra i think you are seeing a large divergence between the message for risky assets like equities as well as credit, highyield, and what you are getting from treasury markets. Treasury markets are very optimistic very pessimistic on the outlook but risky markets are optimistic. The by anything environment, somewhat fueled by the amount of stimulus from the fed. The fed is concerned about National Stability and do not want to be providing too much stimulus and creating bubbles in the market. I am sure they are watching this very closely to see how they can curb some of these successes. Romaine there are a lot of people watching the fed as well. But there are a lot of folks who have participated in this rally in risk assets and are still a 10 year yield someseems to be stuck and people think it may even go lower, where do you look for that hedge at the moment . Hedge, i think the people are buying gold, other forms of real assets. My concern is that the treasury yield is stuck around 50 basis points and the move to real yields, real assets, there is only much you can go. Was maybe not as bad as it in march. What we sign march was a sharp. Ise in real yield we could see a reversal in the safe haven it real assets. Subadra rajappa, Societe Generale head of rates strategy. Tomorrow, full coverage on the rates decision starting at 2 00 p. M. These earnings. , with intel losing potentially bit of its market share as it sees slower production of some chips. Amd raising fullyear revenue target. They are gaining afterhours as they see Second Quarter adjusted earningspershare, 18 . This is a stock that has rallied hard, horrific numbers in terms of their guidance for where production is going. Lets have a quick look at ebay. Second quarter adjusted earnings per share. Romaine ebay also raising guidance going forward. 25. 9,timate was for roughly. So a big beat. Q3ee q revenue estimate, adjusted estimate, also coming in above with the street was looking for. On that revenue, 10. 56 billion to 10. 7 billion. A similar upgrade on their range for eps, for continuing operations. You can see ebay getting a little bit of a bump here. Caroline from new york, this is bloomberg. Romaine big day tomorrow, the ceos of apple, google, amazon, and facebook going to capitol hill to testify on what is going to be an antitrust inquiry. This is a pretty significant deal. Jeff bezos appearing before a time since het has been ceo of amazon. What are you keeping an ion . It is amazing that the committee has enabled together all these people together. I will be watching bezoss performance. The chairman of the committee has really targeted amazon, particularly based on its relationship with thirdparty merchants. Bezos is really going to be in the hot seat over whether or not they are anticompetitive in their relationship to those folks. Caroline we have seen zuckerberg take the stand a couple of times. They will be so much politics at play, isnt there . I think so. On the republican side of the aisle, they have signified that they want this to be about antirepublican by ants. Donald trump referred Mark Zuckerberg to the doj for potentially lying to congress in one of those prior testimonies. When you see Something Like that, you know that they are really signaling, this is the question we will ask. When you go to the republican side of the aisle, the question will be qamar any of them going to be asking about antitrust, and if they dont, does it signal that when the Committee Makes recommendations on changing antitrust law, wealthy republicans back at . That will the republicans back it . Taylor is it a legitimate argument to say that if we break up big tech, we cant compete with china . That is an issue that will be brought up at this hearing. We know that zuckerberg could say that the current fervor is kind of clearing the way for chinese tech firms. I think the way that the democratic side of the aisle would come back is to say that competition is how we innovate. The chinese model just kind of cant back that. And if we do break those up, it could make the market better. Usually, when these hearings go, you get a lot of grandstanding by the politicians, but you usually dont walk out with any kind of tangible change in legislative policy. Is there a sense here that Congress Actually has the will to do anything other than just the public performative nature of these types of hearings . I think that is a real open question. This has been a yearlong investigative series. Toward the middle, when you would go to these smaller, lowprofile hearings, you would often hear the republicans echoing some of the same concerns as the democrats. Thechairman of subcommittee, saying he was concerned about Small Businesses are concerned about dominance. The question is, will the politics of this basically get in the way . I think the answer to that is something we will learn tomorrow. If you had asked me six months ago, i would have said definitely there is the will. Now, i am not so sure. Caroline bloombergs and brody will be all over it for us. Be sure to tune in tomorrow for the coverage of that rescheduled hearing, beginning at 12 00 noon new york time. Now, a check on the latest business flash headlines. Credit suisse set for an overhaul of its business. The bank also expects to combine its risk and compliance units. The changes could be announced as soon as thursday. Worstlds reported its global sales in recent memory. Expected,orse than 23. 9 . That was brought down by a 41 plunge in international markets. Drivethrus were not able to make up the blows from the pandemic shutdown. The Parent Companies of Rocket Mortgage and quicken loans have filed for an ipo. The detroit based Company Started by billionaire dan gilbert is the biggest Mortgage Lender in the u. S. We have been getting into those earnings. None other than amd coming up next. Rising after hours come up almost 8 . A rampant rise. This is bloomberg. Save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, you only have to pay for the data you need, starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. 5g is now included with all new data options. Switch and save hundreds. Xfinity mobile. But what if you could stdo better than that . K. Like adapt. Discover. Deliver. In new ways. To new customers. What if you could come back stronger . Faster. Better. At comcast business, we want to help you not just bounce back. But bounce forward. Thats why were helping you stay ahead and adapt with a network you can count on, 24 7 support and Flexible Solutions that work wherever you are. Call or go online today. Chipmaker raising its fullyear earnings, seems to be firing on all cylinders. Track withhe inside bloomberg intelligence. Their shares have been on quite the rally. Afteranaged to even pump hours. They are executing very well compared to their larger peer, intel. They are benefiting from a new, refreshed road above both cpu and gpus, and the combination. And are doing well in gs in the data centers. Their products have smaller note relative to intel. They are definitely the technology leader. This is amds share to lose now. Romaine the execution of a. M. Has beeneen of amd nothing but remarkable. Thoughts on something that came up with the manufacturing process, whether intel should be manufacturing them inhouse or outsource in them. I know that amd relies on taiwan semi and some other companies for the production. Factor intos that the performance . Amd took its lumps several years ago when they went to a Strategy First with global foundries, then with tsmc. On the other hand, in hells scale is much, much bigger. Switch to turnsy on or off. This would be a multiyear process on part of intel. They already do make some stuff. , 25 of of the revenue the revenue is coming from tsmc products. That said, this is not an easy thing to switch on for them. The second art event, this has been handled as a core competence for intel since its inception. To suddenly give up that dna and say we will be a design house only, we are not good at manufacturing, that will be a huge culture change for intel. , in the part of it is united states, the political pressure of moving those highpaying manufacturing jobs overseas. That adds another fact or of complexity. It is not as easy as just a strategic decision. This would be a multiyear transition. Note, what was the most bullish part of this release, from graphics to process units, what really stood out to you . Prior to the intel announcement, going in, intel amd needed another leg of momentum. Pcs, data center gains, may be the new consuls. They are in both the xbox as well as the new ps five. You needed that extra oomph. Then intel happened, and the stock ran up as a result of that. Now, the fact that they are executing well, they are raising fullyear guidance despite the pandemic, in the face of pandemic and in the face of intel, they are not only doing well, they are doing other than anticipated, i think across the board is a good sign. Growth margins were ok. Both of their sick instead well. Across the board, this was a solid, solid result. Romaine interesting day here for this space. Aboutrse, amd shares up 9. 5 in afterhours trading. Always great decatur inside. Bloomberg intelligence, they do a lot of great work down there. Lets get over to the bloomberg first word news with mark crumpton. Mark attor

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