Natural gas. A good have to do with some of the hot weather we have in the u. S. One Economic Data point that is important the ism manufacturing number came in this morning at 10 00 a. M. It shows us the manufacturing part of the economy is expanding. It is not just strong earnings reports from last week but we have a positive piece of data. It will be interesting to see what the payrolls report rings on friday. David brings on friday. Are they . Confident what does that tell us . The vx end, i am so glad you are bringing it up. Indexes,he volatility both are higher, telling you some folks are thinking volatility could spike. The vix curve points to a big spike of volatility before the election. Levelsic index is at seen last december and the summer of the 2018 ahead of those big selloffs. There are reasons to think that some storing clouds could be ahead. The dollar is climbing for the there are reasons to think that some storm clouds could be ahead. The dollar is climbing for the second day in the row. If that continues it could pressure stocks, a lot of the rally we have seen has been the weak dollar helping commodities. There could be more macro chapters ahead. David thank you. Summerbe the dog days of in washington but lawmakers have a lot of work to do before they can head to the beach. They are far apart on that last round of stimulus. Reg valley aerie is the chief policy started just Greg Valliere is the chief policy officer. I have gone from being totally possum a stick to being cautiously optimistic they can get something done. Maybe i have gone from being totally pessimistic to being cautiously optimistic that they can get something done. Maybe 1200 checks. To be they will come back after the break and get something may be they will come back after the break and get something done. It is crucial. If you want to see a decent Third Quarter and i think that Third Quarter is not looking quite as good as it did, you have to get money in peoples pockets. There will be something on the unemployment. More importantly there will be 1200 checks to people who make 75,000 or less. Those would be the key features of a deal. I think they can do some of this ended then they will kick the can down the road. They may need to wait until september to look at liability reform. David one thing they cannot kick the can down the road on is education. Will they get some money for local School Systems . Greg yes. I think there is agreement on 100 billion. Early dollars billion for university 30 billion for universities. Reportingomberg is the possibility that President Trump is considering going around congress and by executive order doing some things like a payroll tax suspension, extending the moratorium on evictions. Is that a bargaining ploy or are they serious . Greg easier said than done. That will be a tough one to get. Im not sure the president has the authority to do this, especially stuff that involves the taxes. He may say this, it may be a bargaining chip as you say, but going that route has obstacles. Election have a little coming in november. If we want to get some help to the economy, he needs to get it out sooner rather than later, right . Greg i couldnt agree more. The president would take just about anything. I think he wants a bill. More stimulus means a better economy, which means he has a chance of a winning. He will put he on congress to get a bigger bill. The difference is between schumer, mcconnell. Getting a comprehensive ill may be difficult. David even if it is a more limited bill, what is the deadline here . Originally there were going to go to recess august to seven. When do they have to have something . Originallyn they were going to go to recess august 7. When do they have to have something . Greg it could go into the next week. I think there is enough time, 10 days or so to get something done. David besides it not necessarily being pleasant in washington, a lot of those guys have elections. Greg they do. Here has been a shift republicans up for reelection are thinking about themselves, not the president. The president does not have as from republicans as he did a few months ago. David it is hot in washington, figuratively at least. Tictoc and what is going to happen with tiktok. The president doesnt like tikt ok being in the u. S. Greg Ronald Reagan used to say if microsoft buys them yueh did night chinese user data from denyustomers you chinese user data from your customers. David i dont think they have a price. Im not sure how they wed pie at and the price tag will be high and thewould price it price tag will be high. Greg i think trump will hear from a lot of politicians saying don quote do this. This. Do want the relationship with china to get any worse . David we had huawei now we have now we have secretary pompeo suggesting there is a lot of tech work that china is doing in the u. S. That they dont like. Greg both parties would agree on that. This is not just a donald trump crusade against china. Both sides are upset about the espionage aside from tiktok. I think there will be more recriminations. Things will get worse before they got better. If biden wins, may be things get a little better, but i think we have a deep freeze for many months to come. Is anyone advocating for keeping up technological relations with china . China has shut out a lot of u. S. Social media for some time. Absolutely. Right now peter navarro, who is a hawk as you know is calling the shots. As long as he calls the shots, we stay in the deep freeze. David right now it is hard to find a real ask for china on capitol hill. Thats Greg Valliere of hef investments of agf investments. It seems to be a big week in washington with biden on track to announce his running mate this week. Davis is here to take us through. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Power. Is the this is balance of the power. I am david westin. This time for first word news. For that we go to it is time for first word news. For that we go to karina mitchell. President is considering extending eviction protection if congressmen do not act. Emma kratz and republicans have been unable to reach democrats and republicans have been unable to reach an agreement. Norways government has banned cruise ships forum entering from entering its port after a breakout on one ship. That cruise line is apologizing. Theysaid they did not know should have notified all passengers after the first case was reported. They are worried that ship may have infected dozens of the villages along norways coast. Microsoft and tiktok have 45 days to work out a deal. Microsoft is trying to salvage once to ban trump the President Trump wants to ban the app outright on security grounds. Powered by more than analysts in more than 120 countries, i am a karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. David legislators are trying to hash out some compromise on a stimulus bill. Davis of stone court capital. Always a delight to have you with us. Us an idea of the politics of this negotiation. Rick Senate Republicans have always opposed to the supplemental contribution of 600 a week because they felt statistics indicated that was more than some people were actually making when they were working. The negotiation is somewhere between 600 a week that has been currently in the supplementals in the past down to as little as 200 a week. Is there a sense the American Public are concerned about debt . Normally a politician will respond to what they think their constituents want. Are there constituents saying we dont want any more money being spent . Rick people have been a antinational debt for a long time but they have long since disappeared. To some degree harming the Electoral Prospects of the Republican Party because those people do not have that clear difference between how the republicans govern and the democrats govern. Without a clear difference in fiscal policy as a relation to the deficit, those voters have to look elsewhere for reasons to vote for one or the other candidates. David we are only one week away from the first of the two conventions. President trump is reconstituting his entire campaign. He has a new Campaign Manager. Whats going on there . Rick the new Campaign Manager decided to take a step back. They suspended advertising last week. They brought in a new deputy for him into the campaign and they said where do we stand . When they look at these battleground states, they realized they were behind in almost every single one. Then they looked at some new emerging states like georgia who were not even on the list two years ago and are now an area where the Trump Campaign is putting heavy resources on tv and on the ground. The idea was to find a pathway to those electoral votes that donald trump could try to snake his way through like he did last time. The problem is they do not have a lot of good options. There is not a clear path. Those places like michigan where trump was able to win last time, points behind 10 in most surveys. David when biden picks his running mate, you have been in the room when running mates have been chosen what should he be looking for . What does the running mate do for him . Rick they have the luxury of picking someone who they want to govern with. Behind 10 too are pick a running mate that will help them get tend to pick a running mate that will help them get elected. Biden has a cautious history and is comfortably ahead in most national polls, seven to 10 percent. He will pick someone who can be good for the country, got for the white house, but also good for the white house but also has a Clear Pathway to constituencies he needs. He has already discussed the fact that he will pick a woman, which is a strong step towards recruiting suburban women who are up for grabs in this election. It will be interesting to see what angle he takes. Does he goad the secure route like barack obama or does he take more risks . Secure route the like barack obama or does he take more risks . David i want to get one question in about the mechanics of the voting november 3. We are not going to have an answer are we on Election Night . Rick no it will probably be the next day. We have had some issues with election counting in the past. The most famous for the hanging chads and sorta in 2000 and that took us a couple months and that took the hanging chains in florida in 2000 and that took us a couple months. It wont take that long. No one has a clear sense of how big that number will be as far as mailin ballots and how long states will take to process. Elections on election day are run by states. Each state has a different approach how to take the vote and count the vote. It will be a Patchwork Quilt of over 50 different options that states have to try and run this election during covid. David having the scars to show for the 2000 election where we had bush versus gore and it was essentially a title election, it is not just to the process of counting them, but Court Challenges to the results essentially a tide election. Y a tied it is not just a process of counting them, but Court Challenges to the results. Recruitu have to lawyers in every state who can make challenges at every prey synced who where you think precinct where you would like to have a recount or contest but also statewide if there are endemic problems with the election day account. This election will have an additional curve ball thrown to it. Even though there will be election day voting in all these estates that dont have total mail vote, they will have a thated these states dont have total mail vote, they will have limited poll workers and that will cause minds. It will be a very litigious because lines. It will be a very litigious election. David is our cake baked . Rick three states had legislative action going on to go to mailin voting to allow the state to mail all the tolots out and allow folks vote by mail. I think you will see continuing improvements or changes in the mailing of ballots to voters and that will go on for another 30 days. After that in many states, those ballots will already head households in Early September and of voting will begin hit households in Early September and voting will begin. Davis, our Bloomberg Contributor will join us in the second hour of a balance of power to talk about the candidates for joe biden. Toe on microsofts hoping buy tictocs u. S. Operations. Our stock of the hour. That is coming up next on powererg on balance of on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power. I am david westin. Time now for stock of the hour. It will be microsoft. Microsoft is trying to buy the u. S. Operations of tictoc before President Trump shuts down their operations. Scarlet fu is here with the story. Scarlet the timeline here is six weeks. That is how long microsoft has worked out a deal to buy parts of tiktok. Everything is up for negotiation. Ktokmicrosoft buying ti would give its social media businesses a big shot in the arm. Linkedin,xposure is which it bought in 2016. Tech has been a star performer since march 23, but it is hardware that has led the way. Apple has almost doubled in value since march 23. Software is trailing in comparison because mainer mainly Smaller Companies have been gaining. Smaller companies are not driving that index higher. David there are these issues with hong kong and trump has democrat and republican backing on the hill for that. China has banned facebook and twitter for some time. What is behind this . Scarlet this is a flashpoint in the u. S. China relations. That is what makes it so complicated. The white house is a third party in these number these negotiations. Peter navarro says tiktok should be banned, not sold it to anyone. Could low have argued they have enlisted lawmakers, including senator rubio to make the case. President trump is not happy with tiktok users who use the platform to disrupt his campaign activities. The white house does not want to anger the tiktok users in the u. S. These are young voters who could turn on the white house, november. Tiktok for its part has seen the writing on the wall. Ceo,hired dan americans kevin mayer to lead the company but i dont know if that will do anything here. You have Political Forces that overwhelm. David he has his hands fall. Thank you. His hands full. Thank you. The president is looking for ways to hit back at beijing. The coronavirus has become a political hot potato. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. For bloomberg first word news, we go to karina mitchell. States can still beat the coronavirus pandemic, according to the world health topnizations epidemiologist. She says americans should follow the guidelines including wear masks, social distancing, and staying home when asked to do so. Advisers, white house and democrats are resuming those talks on a new stimulus package. Negotiations become increasingly urgent this week. Millions of jobless americans benefit lost their 600 , and the senate is expected to leave on friday. Mark meadows says he is not optimistic about a quick resolution. As it could cost millions picks up speed and strength. The storm will sweep through the midatlantic after striking the carolinas, spinning over new york on tuesday. It killed one woman in puerto rico and cost damage in the bahamas. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. David thank you so much. We have some numbers on manufacturing, and they show the indices are back into positive territory for the most part, although not wildly so. Timmons,e now jay president and ceo of the National Association of manufacturers. Give us your take on these numbers. Jay we are always going to welcome good news. This is good news coming off of six pretty difficult months in manufacturing, and frankly, six difficult months for the entire economy. I hope this is a precursor to additional good news to run the rest of the year but we will have to wait and see. A lot of this comes down to whether the American People want to resume kind of normal activities are not. If they do, we are all going to have to do the smart ring, take precautions, wear masks in public, make sure we are protecting each other, so that we are not completely losing people through death or hospitalization or terrible sickness, so that they cannot work, or function. Hopefully, these numbers do not propel us into the future with worse numbers. David these numbers are month over month, positive, does not mean that we have done ourselves out of the hole, but employment was down to 44. 3. Take to get people back in the plants manufacturing things . Pandemic,ghout the workers have been essential, producing the medical supplies, ppe, food supply that has been so necessary to keep our country in survival mode. Time, it hasme been a very bad business environment. Some reductions in force in manufacturing. However, i think we will start to see those folks start to come back on the job. , we hadhe pandemic about half a million jobs open in manufacturing. That is because we could not find people with the skills we needed to do the very modern, hightech jobs. We still have jobs, even with the reduction in force, that we cannot fill. That is why we are going to be kicking off, when all of this ends, interact with each other again, will be kicking off our creators wanted tour to attract more people into the manufacturing workforce. Counterintuitive with on a plumbing growing in the country that we cannot find people with the right skills, but it is reality. David give us a sense of what a manufacturer has to do in this covid19 world to keep workers safe. To what extent do they have to retool the way they manufacturer, what kind of costs are they incurring to do this . Manufacturers saw this in january and we started to ring t