Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20240712

And the markets say by gold. Global google searches for the phrase hit levels not seen in nine years as the yellow metal barrels passed 2000 an ounce. The cash trade is less than an hour away. Here are your headlines. The white house and democrats aim for a virus relief deal by the end of the week and bill gates tells bloomberg exclusively the u. S. Should help poorer nations get vaccines. Rocked by a massive explosion at its main port, killing dozens and injuring thousands. Authorities are yet to confirm what caused the blast. In fromcontinue to roll europes largest countries. Commerzbank anticipates a loss for the year. We will speak with a host of top executives in the coming hours, including from the frankfurtbased bank. We are just under an hour away from the start of cash equity trading in europe and out in the u. K. Lets take a look at what futures are indicating. Green arrows across the board. For ures up the most, 0. 4 . We get a slew of earnings out of German Companies this morning. Take a look at u. S. Futures. Showingu. S. Futures gains not quite as strong, but dow joneshere with futures gaining the most. Almost 0. 25 . Annmarie cross assets, we have to look at the dollar figure again today. Eurodollar against a weaker u. S. Dollar. Real yields again hitting another record low. All the action is in gold. We are above 2000 an ounce. This is another milestone. Analyst even see more upside. One from aviva investors describes gold as a disneyland that only the fed could stop. Oil a little bit softer. This comes after the massive explosion, harrowing scenes out of beirut. Possibility of instability across the region. Matt lets talk about that right now. We are joined by nigel wilson, the ceo of legal and general. We just have been getting lines across from the company. Nigel, we are looking at first of all a first half profit after tax of 290 billion pounds. We are also looking at operating profit that beat the street estimate at 946 million with the dividend per share, how have you ofn able to take advantage maybe the volatility of investors may be wanting to rebalance during this past quarter . Nigel i think we have seen lots of different investment and your introduction was a great example of that. To the massivein shortage of investment here in better. To build back and leveling up in britain. We are very much doing that. As you pointed out, our operating profits are flat yearoveryear. We had some negative covid effects in the other two divisions. Optimisticpretty that the government is trying to create an Economic Framework which will allow investment drive growth here in the u. K. Because we have been desperately short of this type of investment for a long period of time. As you pointed out, we kept the dividend flat yearoveryear, which is a good outcome for shareholders and we think the right and appropriate thing to do, given all of the market backdrop. Good morning. What are your latest forecasts for how covid will evolve and its impact on u. K. And European Growth . Most oft is great that the European Countries have got it really under control and we have done a good job here in getting it under control. Has tocking test system butove as we go forward, america is a somewhat different story. Therefore, we are a bit more nervous about the outcome in america, particularly for our Life Insurance business where we have claims from the usa. What are your expectations right now . You are following this probably more closely than other people for how covid is going to evolve , for how the pandemic is looking, especially its impact on European Growth. Im a little bit perhaps more optimistic about the potential for growth, particularly if we can get the investment side right. Pretty much all economies have been underinvesting, but there are a huge amount of projects. We have over 100 projects in the u. K. With over 6 billion pounds of investment attached to those. Like more companies to do that. At a scientific of the level and a societal level, there was a huge amount of investment required. Interest rates have never been so low and we should be making all of those things happening. I dont think covid is a barrier to that personally. I think it has been a tragedy what has happened so far, but it is not a barrier to longterm investment and growth. They have been hugely rewarded as a consequence of that. Annmarie given the favorable debt market, are you worried about some of these companies you invest in gorging on ready supply of credit . [laughter] good and is a very relative point. I think the fed, the ecb, and the bank of england do a really good job in the capital markets. Companies are getting themselves in good shape, particularly investmentgrade companies. I think the difficulty is much more at the sme and. In the where certainly u. K. We are undercapitalized. The other way of looking at what we are talking about as we put too much debt into lots of these companies wear what they really need is equity and we havent really created a framework for getting equity into these companies. German companies have historically been much better and doing that than british or american companies. Somehow, we have to provide more equity finance for smaller and Mediumsized Companies because they are the real Growth Engine of the economy. If they are starved of equity capital, that is some of the other side of the coin that you made, which is relevant. Right, nigel. A pleasure having you this morning. Too short as usual. As soonget you back on as possible. The ceo of legal and general joining us after earnings. Coming up, bank of ireland reports a loss for the first half of the year, almost double what analysts had been estimating. The ceo of irelands secondbiggest lender joins us for her first interview of the day next. This is bloomberg. Annmarie welcome back to the european open. We are just under an hour away from the cash equity open. Futures to the green, but potentially going to be a little bit of a lackluster session. Bank of ireland reported a loss that the first half of the year which was almost double what analysts were estimating. Ireland secondbiggest lender meet. Ready struggling to the lender took in almost one billion euro charge on the impact of the pandemic. Joining us now is the bank of ireland ceo francesca mcdonagh. Thank you for joining us. I want to start with that impairment charge. Is this the worst Case Scenario . Francesca good morning. We have chicken taken the impairment charge. Two thirds of that reflects expected losses. Only third reflects actual decline or deterioration in our lending book. It is difficult to be prescriptive and definitive, but we are saying that should represent between 70 and 85 of our fullyear outlook. Messagethe underlying that the capital remains strong and we have made Good Progress in terms of cost and transformation, but obviously the impairment number, which is a reflection of how covid19 is impacting our economy and all businesses is obviously very apparent. Has the easing of the lockdown been impacting your economy or how has the recovery been since the easing started . Francesca sitting here today, i feel cautiously more optimistic than i did when we gave our First Quarter Trading Update back in may. The Irish Economy has opened up sooner than expected. We are not out of the woods yet and there are challenges, butc data suggests house prices are more resilient and claimants on unemployment support are 52 below peak. We have had a new majority government being formed and they have launched a material fiscal stimulus package which is being well received that represents 11 percent of irelands of gni. On a per capita basis it ranks up there with european country peers. We are seeing behavior in trading from our business and personal customers. After effectively the trough of april and may, we are seeing Mortgage Applications higher in july and 25 up versus july 19. Lets see how those translate into written business for the second half of the year and debit and Credit Card Spend his back to precovid19 levels, though i would be cautious that some of that is pentup demand, so still some real challenges, but i would they i am marginally more optimistic than i would have been back in may. Annmarie you along with a number of other ceos of irish banks had been called in to speak to the finance ministry. The government owns about 14 of your bank. Excessiverried about political interference in your bank and other irish banks . Francesca the government is a major stakeholder, a shareholder with 40 . You would expect the government to be very interested in how we lend to irish businesses and household. There is no political intervention in terms of how we price, how we charge customers, and how we grow and manage our balance sheet, but there is a lot of interest, as it relates to payment rakes. We have been front footed and providing payment banks and emergency liquidity to households and businesses. Across all of our business, we breaksreed 105 payment 105,000 payment breaks. That has given customers the breathing space they needed during the real trough of the pandemic. Matt what kind of demand are you seeing right now . Sawsume that you initially a flurry of demand as people started to realize they werent going to be bringing in any revenue. Has it stayed that high since the easing started . Francesca it hasnt. We agreed to 105,000 payment breaks for the first three months and those have begun to expire. What we are seeing is that about half of our mortgage customers in ireland are opting for an extension. Slightly more businesses are opting for an extension for another three months partially because the government stimulus package has not landed yet. In our u. K. Business, we have seen the take being lower between because government stimulus packages have landed and they are being effective and businesses are saying, i can go back and resume my original capital and interest payments, which is a good sign of economic recovery, but some customers and businesses are going to struggle with social distancing and the new normal and we have taken an impairment charge, part of that really large number i talked about, 180 million of that is because we dont think ill payment breaks will resume back to the way they were before covid19. Annmarie you have been targeting return on tangible equity 10 2001. Where do you see it now . Francesca to be honest, it feels premature to start being explicit about mediumterm targets. The world has changed for the last six months, so we are not giving guidance beyond 2020. In the mediumterm, getting to a return on tangible equity of 8 to 10 plus is still the longerterm objective. Right now, our focus is on supporting our customers, get through this crisis. We have given guidance on cost coming down and it has improved better than we said in 2021, but we are not being explicit about more mediumterm objectives today. Annmarie bank of ireland ceo francesca mcdonagh, thank you so much for joining us. Coming up, and other awnings interview. Tomerzbank, we will speak the cfo next. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to bloomberg markets, this is the european open. Im matt miller. We are 40 minutes away from cash equity trading. We see green arrows in terms of futures, especially here in germany. A slew of companies are putting out earnings. Among them is commerzbank. They have abandoned their goal for a fullyear profit after losses tied to wirecard and surging bad loan provisions that banks across the industry have seen. But at commerzbank this comes amid a change in leadership. The Company Appointed a new chairman this week and it is still searching for a new ceo. Fortunately, the chief finance officer is in place with her feet on the ground working. Bettina orlopp joins us now from frankfurt to talk about the Earnings Report and the plans going forward. Thanks very much for your time. About the lossk here. The Loan Loss Provisions are nothing surprising. We have seen them sorting across banks throughout europe, but the wirecard story is specific to germany. Much has that hurt you . How quickly do you think you can return to a profit after 2020 . Q2, we first of all, have shown a profit. That is really important. Announcement that it would become much more aspirational to reach positive net income given the corona impact on revenues, but also on the Loan Loss Provisions. Even more important, we want to look into q4 for the restructuring charges to really make progress on our contravention program. That all in all brings us to a negative net income for the year. Matt in terms of the wirecard story, before you were ceo at commerzbank come along before, journalists were writing stories about the problems at this bank and the amount of smoke coming from the company meant pretty much everybody should have known there was fire. The regulators certainly did not seem to wise up to that until far too late. Neither did the government. What do you think needs to change so we dont have another case where a German Company misplaces more than 2 billion euros . Bettina the discussion is ongoing and i will really not comment on cases from our side, but what i can say from a general point of view is that clearly one question on how do you regulate payment providers, something which need to be discussed by regulators and politicians. On the other side, i think everybody has to ask who is involved in cases like that, what have been the red flags and how do we deal correctly with the red flags which were out there . That is something that will happen over the next weeks and months, im pretty sure. Commerzbank and germany is past this, do you expect to be profitable again in 2021 and what kind of growth are you looking at after that . Bettina i mean at the moment, we expect a ushaped scenario. We expect to the recovery of the economy. That will then also have an impact on our revenue. How 2021 is developing and the guidance, to be very honest, it is too early to tell. I think i need to ask you for your patience and wait until the end of the year and then we are pretty much in a position to give some guidance on 2021 because it is also clearly depending on the strategy we will announce. You have a new chairman in place. Im wondering if youve met him yet and talked to him about costcutting plans . Bettina i have not met him yet. It is too early, but i will meet him soon. The role ofbout ceo . How soon do you think investors can expect that position to be filled . Bettina unfortunately, im not in the position to tell you because it is the job of the Supervisory Board and the newly elected chairman. Yes. We all hope we have clarity soon, but i have to say, we have a ceo fully in charge, plus a full management board, so we are pretty much in a situation where we can drive the key Strategic Initiatives and where we can implement the cost measures we have already planned for. Matt diversity is a push globally right now. I wonder if commerzbank wanted a woman at the helm and offer you the position, would you accept . [laughter] bettina nice try. I will not comment on that. [laughter] matt well, i had to try. Bettina orlopp, thanks very much. Appreciate your time this morning. The chief Financial Officer at commerzbank. Coming up, bp cut its dividend for the first time in a decade. We will speak to the oil giants ceo next. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to bloomberg markets, this is the european open. 30 minutes away from the start of cash equity trading. Futures higher across europe and the u. K. The bloomberg first word news right now. Laura . Thanks. A massive explosion has rocked the city of beirut. The video we are about to show is intense. Lebanons main port, killing over 100 and injuring thousands. It was so powerful it was heard from cyprus and blew out windows across the city. It was caused from highly explosive materials across the port, but they did not say whether it was an accident or attack. The white house and democrats hope to have a deal on a relief package by the end of the week. The two sides remain far apart on some key issues, but they appear to be moving closer to an agreement. Any votes on the deal likely wont happen until next week. The u. S. Is planning the highest level visit to taiwan since washington cut ties more than 40 years ago. The health and Human Services secretary will lead the delegation to discuss the Global Response to the pandemic and deliver medical supplies, the latest signal that there is support for taiwan in the face of increasing pressure from beijing. In the u. K. , lawmakers are urging Prime Minister Boris Johnson to be more open about the travel risks associated with the coronavirus. A committee criticize the way ministers talked up the opportunity for a Summer Vacation only to reimpose restrictions without warning. Johnson has published a promised a public inquiry. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Matt laura, thanks very much. Laura in london with your first word news. Intessa reported a higher rise as revenue helped offset provisions. Francine lacqua spoke with the ceo. We want [indiscernible] the ecb want to wait for january to take the final decision. They want to look at the environment. The negative will remain. If there will be that these expectations [indiscernible] then they can change their attitudes. How has the economy in italy fared in july . What have clients been telling you about their mood for the future . Sure, like ther , pean countries [indiscernible] because in the lockdown [indiscernible] all the others are recovering. Possibly of gdp [indiscernible] the growth in gdp could be much higher. Think this describes a sense of urgency. Gdp growth would mean 2022, 2023. Do you think you buying ubi means we will see more crossborder mergers . Is somethinger that it is too early to talk about for the european landscape. Expectation is that it will reach that level in the next two years. Inre are a lot of areas which we need to have some more variety, especially the possibility to move toward integration and the possibility to have synergies emerging. See in the future of the european landscape, after the integration,

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