Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20240712

Valuation and you get news crossing the wire that people dont know what to make of. Financials did hold up on the day. That appears to be a yield play. Our to extrapolate too much longterm. Taylor i would agree, particularly when you get financials and industrials. You are still seeing some more strength in dollareuro. Start to see some of those classic safe havens moves. I am curious, we will post this adam, next guest, larry if this feels like a shakeout day. Overbought. Eems so see where nextn opportunities present themselves in the coming days. Larry i agree completely and i think that is why it is so important for investors not to overreact for the one day. Levelx was at the lowest since the pandemic. Relative strength was above 70. In many ways, there was a lot of complacency settling into this market. I do think this will be a healthy shakeout so people can determine where there really is some good opportunities in the market. The winnerst is in that have been the winners. Caroline larry adams, chief Investment Officer at Raymond James private client group. That is it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is next where we will be looking at joe bidens potential running mates. This is bloomberg. Caroline from bloombergs World Headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. You missed a sharp selloff in the past hour of trading, from close to record highs, we tumble down 0. 8 on the s p 500. That seven day winning streak now ended. Value of tiktok. And, thinking about it. President trump says he is seriously considering a Capital Gains tax cut. All that and so much more. Ears onl eyes and whether we do indeed get a vp pick from Vice President biden. Taylor so much of what we have been talking about is Dollar Strength and dollar weakness. This chart here. If you have exposure to china, you are performing much better than if you do not have exposure. Expectedn better than economic data. Of course, you are getting some further Dollar Strength relative to yuan weakness through june. The second half the year, getting a little bit of weakness in the dollar. The directorng in of emerging markets. Great to have you. What are you thinking about emerging markets at this moment where i know a lot of these emergingmarket countries getting hurt. Aw that that is shifting little bit, are they reaping the benefits as much . Themergingmarket come over last few months, the market had been pricing too much default particularly in the highyield segment. We still think there is a lot of relative value versus what else you can buy in the same yield category. Atoline can we still look emerging markets as a catchall . Often, if youre feeling of verse, you selloff for example the South African rand. How much can you see it as a catch all universe . Shamaila i think there are quite specific stories going on, particularly in lebanon and turkey. That has resulted in volatility in the turkish lira. At a time when the central bank has had limited resources. Liquidityightening domestically. They undoing some of the policies that they put in place to incentivize banks to increase lending. We think they have to do an outright rate hike, restore confidence. So, really what is happening is a result of domestic policy. Lebanon has had many challenges. That has been amplified by the rather tragic events of last week. Romaine some of the political tensions we have seen in emerging markets, whether it is in the been on, turkey. Im curious, when you look at sort of that political instability, does it give you be somee here that may of the trade we have seen that a little overextended . Shamaila i would say there are areas that we have concerns. Emerging markets. The ones that we have concerns about are ones where we have seen policies which are not sriainable, like turkey and lanka. Emergingmarket countries offer significant value, where the relative yields are attractive. How are you thinking about these countries went we thought they had gotten adrift on increasing covid cases, than the u. S. Does that play a factor into relative value, into how you think about investment . Is a very important question. Emergingmarket countries have shut down for a short period of time because they dont have the resources to do so. I think the record is very much like developed markets. Rates hashe mortality been lower, perhaps because of a younger population. So that has been a mitigating factor. Just like with Economic Policy, with the politics, you have to differentiate on how they have reacted to the health crisis. Caroline how much has china been on your radar . There are plenty of countries that dine out, do well on the back of chinas recovery. How much of a force is china in the emergingmarket debt landscape shamaila when you do emerging markets, china is almost always on your radar. A major factor in maintaining the positive view. We continued to see a sustained recovery. Romaine great to have you on, as always. A. B. Joiningn of us. Just to get you back on the horse race here for who might be joe bidens Vice President ial running mate. Michigan governor wittner and representative karen bass of california. This is according to reporting from the new york times. We are still awaiting official confirmation from the bided campaign itself. Coming up next on this program, oil markets showing signs of recovery. We will discuss the latest on what to expect from the opec report tomorrow with francisco blanch. This is bloomberg. A really challenging time for the industry. I have been really proud of how our colleagues, owners, Business Partners have worked to implement new systems to make sure our guests and colleagues are safe around the world. This industry will recover in time because of the inherent desire and need for people to travel. Romaine joe biden has selected come alaris to be his is harris to be his Vice President ial running mate. A californiare girl. There was obviously a lot of speculation about who his running mate would be. Of course, who he would choose was always the big question and i guess now we know the answer. Taylor so interesting. We have a chart on the terminal that really has shown a lot of the betting odds. Sues susan rice and Kamala Harris neck and neck. In terms of policies, just scouring through agenda on her plan. Relief, for all, rent climate change, gun policy. Interesting to dive in to see really what this specific policy could be. Romaine i think the big question everybody has, does this help biden gain voters from the center, does it hurt him . Lets bring in kevin cirilli. I guess the first question, are you surprised by this . Kevin no. Fromor Kamala Harris california being tapped as joe bidens running mate. She was one of the few individuals in a crowded whocratic debate field sharpened her attacks against biden. I am told that they viewed this as a unifying pick, an opportunity that is also generational, also on the issue politics, she has tried to position herself as somewhat of a bridge of sorts between the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and the more centrist wing. Lets also note that this would be an historic pick. She would no doubt be the first female Vice President and also the first minority Vice President. A very interesting pick. Republicans to look at her record on criminal Justice Reform, to look at her time that she spent in california. But for right now, this was a pick that was really held close to vest. The bided campaign in delaware was having to deal with social distancing. Also tried to build enthusiasm and excitement as well. Caroline ever since she came in as a senator, the first black person, the first indianamerican. Her father, jamaican. Her mother, Southern India is where she is originally from. Had plenty of skirmishes the person she is now going to run alongside of. She had no problem arguing with him when we could all stand sidebyside and have the debates that we saw. What do you think her relationship will be with joe biden and how will the republicans respond to her . A lot will shine a light on her as they next successor. I am told that, as it relates to getting this pick, the most important aspect was that the Vice President will be a heartbeat away from the president. To assume theg duties of commanderinchief. In regards to republicans, in any ways, this is going to be sharp contrast. Have a course want to Vice President ial debate in the coming months ahead of the election. But in terms of their policies come on a host of issues ranging issuesonomic to social as well, there could not be more of a contrast between the current document the current occupant of the office, mike pence, and Kamala Harris. Next 24old that in the hours, senator harris and former Vice President biden will be meeting at some sort of fundraiser. It comes before the Democratic National Convention Next week where there is slated to be a Virtual Convention of sorts. Thatther name on shortlist. Theie sanders, and even republican governor of ohio, john kasich. Caroline we are going to stick on this theme of the latest pick for running mate. Rick, interesting that we are getting tweets coming from joe biden himself, saying he has the great honor to announce he selects Kamala Harris. Beau saying that his son worked closely with her. I think it is a good, solid, safe pick you would have expected him to make. There is not a lot of risk. Vetted multiple times in our career. As a big state senator, she has had a lot of responsibility. , it was for biden probably the safety pick. Candidates whor might have had a bigger riskreward factor. He can sort of stay on the track he is on. He does not have to shift his campaign ideologically to accommodate her. It is what you would have thought joe biden would have done in a vacuum. Taylor a safety pick. Thinking about the way wall street is looking at this, and many analysts on the street. Someone more extreme like an elizabeth warren. Rising taxes, tougher Financial Regulation. It come to perhaps being more of a moderate than the rest of the party and how we can think about taxes and Financial Regulation . Rick she fits neatly into the joe biden wing of the Democratic Party. She is not a leftwing progressive. Aocdoes not come from the wing of the party who is looking to raise substantial revenue to do more social programming. View,n economic point of she will not try to pull bided and his campaign in a left direction. Take a veryhe will aggressive role with social justice issues within his administration, assuming they win. Thatould have expected after a pretty significant, historic pick. Woman,s first nominated africanamerican, for the Vice President. Dont see a big diversion from core moderate democratic Economic Policy that has been really a successful formula for democrats with bill clinton, to a large degree barack obama. I dont think joe biden will stray far from that. Romaine i want to ask you about the nuts and bolts of picking a running mate like this. You are involved in the mccain campaign. Whatur research, difference does that running establishing votes . Do they really care whether it vs. Harris . Time, you arethe trying to fill a gap in that image at the top of the ticket. You look at who he is strong with and realize, we dont need to bolster that aspect. With . O is he week when we looked at john mccains image, it became apparent that we had a huge gender gap. Men loved john mccain and women more or less just ignored him. Credit, he announced he was going to put a woman on the ticket. I dont think it was a small thing to look at his demographic appeal and say, who does he need to show up in big numbers on election day . He does have the advantage of being ahead in almost every targeted state. He has gotten a little leeway. Muster an africanamerican vote similar to barack obama, it will go a long way of putting joe biden in the white house. Caroline quite amazing. Memorable debate stage clashes, it seems a lifetime ago, but we did see senator harris take biden to task. I wonder how they can show unanimity at a time when we see so much division. Can they bring the country back from the brink of division . I think that will be a message that contrasts with the current administration. Donald trump is a pick your winners kind of candidate. I think biden has already shown effort to try to create a public unity campaign. I think it is a Good Environment for that. Show that the direction of the country the last numbers i saw on Public Opinion polls was that 70 of the voters thought the country was headed in the wrong direction. , i amate that alignment going to go in a different direction in this place toward a public unity campaign. Romaine great to have you, rick davis. This is bloomberg. Day in theection u. S. Is 12 weeks away. It looks like the matchup will be President Donald Trump and Vice President mike pence up against joe biden and now Kamala Harris as joe bidens running mate. She is expected to be sort of formally introduced tomorrow on wednesday. That is coming from the campaign. I want to bring in the executive director of the new york state Democratic Party and a former eight two Hillary Clinton to get his perspective on what kamala brings to this ticket and whether this moves the needle for joe biden to gain any votes beyond what we were expecting so far. Thank you for having me. I am very excited about this pick. I think, for so many africanamericans who were really hoping that joe biden would choose an africanamerican woman to add to the ticket, this is an incredible enthusiasm boost. That is how i would begin to answer your question. You had rick on earlier talking about filling in gaps i definitely think that you can with energyoe biden and enthusiasm on the campaign trail. ,he is incredibly bright intelligent, and clearly is fearless. She went after him in that debate. A polling andn Enthusiasm Gap between him and his supporters, this is an emotional shot in the arm for democrats and he will say for the country as well. Caroline i am interested in how they can go through the divide as well and bring over republicans currently dissatisfied either with the way the white house has dealt with the covid pandemic. A you think they can speak to broader coalition of people other than just the usual democratic voters . Basil just sort of zooming out a little bit, regardless of everything i just said about Kamala Harris, most voters historically do not vote for president on the vp choice. His sort ofhrough explanation and, i think, explication of why this moment whatme is so important, donald trump has not been able to do as president , has given voters the opportunity to look at him as a competent, thoughtful leader. If you look at healthy suburbs have been voting, for example, you see that there is tremendous ,rosion among suburban voters among white males, and among white women. That durable base he once had has seen joe biden chip away at that overtime. Gets highent still marks for the economy. Hislow marks come from handling of the virus. If he shows even a little bit of leadership along those lines, we could see a tighter race than the polls are showing. But it is true that biden has been able to chip away at some of the trump race. Taylor i am curious as to how you think the republicans respond to this. Most of the strategists we have is an to say Kamala Harris classic biden pick. Are the republicans prepared . How do they respond . Key would be some of the issues they can come back against to take out what you just said was the emotional shot in the arm . Basil what is interesting about the Kamala Harris pick is that republicans cant say she is sort of the typical moderate pick. She is of jamaican and indian ancestry. Hbcu, who of an thinks very seriously about higher education. Who is thinking of very seriously about criminal Justice Reform and has a track record on that. These are all weak points for this administration. Anything Vice President mike pence can put on the table, i think she has shown that she is not afraid to push back. We saw that in debates and i think we will see that certainly against mike pence. Romaine you mentioned her jamaican ancestry. On ais a person of color Major Party Ticket during a time when you have an administration that has not exactly embraced diversity and, for better or for worse, has seemed to do well with that strategy. Energizing largely the minority voters out there. I wonder if having someone like kamala on the ticket, whether that does turn some voters off of that ticket. Basil that is remained to be seen. I have had my issues with joe biden, and i have written about them. The way he characterizes people of color. About the other day the black community not being that diverse. Thatmindset, and the fact in many ways this race is predicated on winning back white male voters, it will be interesting how he talks about issues of race and Justice Reform. Note that sont to Many Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction. So the question is, can joe biden address those voters in a thoughtful way that gives voters the sense that just because we need to focus more on diversity, equity, and inclusion, that should not take away from who you are. I think that is sometimes how others, particularly this president , has created that racial and class cleavage. I think that joe biden can find that sweet spot to be able to make that very nuanced argument. Caroline it feels that the Immediate Response from the other side of the aisle will probably be, this is your pick for president. A onef joe biden being term president , then, someone who can take to the helm with immediacy, so had to have the political experience senator harris has. It is the u. S. Ready for a female leader or a leader of color in your perspective . Said we wereeople not ready for a black president. So are we ready for Kamala Harris as Vice President . That remains to be seen. Having worked with Hillary Clinton over the years, how people have talked about her, the subtle and notsosubtle misogyny and sexism. Active inlinically part because i saw geraldine for our Geraldine Ferraro talking about how the party needed to be more inclusive. It was shameful to see how she was treated then had not changed so much with Hillary Clinton in 2016. To be honest, i dont know if things have changed all that much now in 2020. The fact that she is on this ticket is going to force america to reckon with all of its isms. If there was no other reason donald trump is in office, it forces us to look at all of our institutions, political and economic structures, understand the disparities within them and how to fix that, or at least provide a pathway. Maybe that is what they are doing with this particular ticket, force the country to reckon with its sins, concerns, and opportunity or potential. Up whatto sort of wrap you think the key issues would be, you have mentioned criminal Justice Reform of course, in this moment when we are seeing protests continue across the country. A keyo you think would be issue that she can really hang her hat on . Basil i think Justice Reform. I think particularly coming from california, climate change. Those specific policies, addition to joe normalcyresentation of in politics. A steady hand and governance. And thoughtful policy leadership. Caroline thank you so much for your time today. Lets get you now the first word with mark crumpton. Mark thank you very much. As we have been reporting, joe biden has announced california senator Kamala Harris will be his running mate for the 2020 president ial campaign. Senator harris, who ran against Vice President biden in the cranberries in the primaries, is the first black woman as a running mate on a Major Party Ticket. In a statement, biden said harris is a fighter for the little guy and one of the nations best Public Servants. In spain, calling for a in allto rico, for a redo at polling stations that opened late or had issues that stopped people from voting. Islands half of the polling places had trouble casting ballots. Sendinged nations is try toto lebanon to prevent food shortages. The blast destroyed the citys main grain silo. The humanitarian agency says the first wheat shipment will be there in the coming days and supply bakeries for about a month. U. S. Secretary of state mike pompeo is in the czech republic. He is expected to focus on threats to the region by russia and china. It is worth remembering, even as we celebrate, that because authoritarianism is still alive, there remains work to do. Beijing and moscow are seeking greater roles across the continent in the telecommunications area. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Caroline so, joe biden has picked senator Kamala Harris as his running mate. What is the impact for you, the investor, the audience, and indeed the u. S. At large. Lets bring in david westin, power. Balance of happened, mostit people thought it was the most logical choice. I think the number one message it sends is joe biden wants to win. Romaine a combat some of the folks that were not selected. There was some speculation that some of the other names on that list who sort of moved into greater contention. Can you give us some perspective on why he decided to pass on some of those names . I was not in the room. I can tell you why from the outside it makes sense. She is someone who has been on the national stage. She has run for president herself included on the debate stage with joe biden. She is battle tested, which is important. Obviously, we should not overlook the historic fact that this is the first africanamerican woman ever to run for Vice President. She also pulls some teeth from President Trump will make law order a big issue. She was a prosecutor and state attorney general. Interesting, when we think about the core bloomberg audience, what this means for wall street. A middleoftheroad choice, less risky than someone like elizabeth warren. What do you see from the analysts you speak to end your own reporting on Kamala Harris . David i dont think we know as much about her policy on economic regulation and taxes and things like that as much as perhaps elizabeth warren. But i think the perception is that she is a moderate. I think joe biden wants to win the presidency and thinks he has to stay moderate to do that. Romaine there is always a concern here these Vice President ial picks dont necessarily gain a new voters but they can in some cases antagonize potential voters, swing voters i should say. Do you get a sense that kamala brings in a new crop of voters or does it just kind of energize the voters that joe biden already had . David we all remember joe biden in south carolina, how well he has done with africanamerican voters. In the aftermath of george floyd , that is more important than ever. She is younger. Joe biden will be 78 if he is inaugurated in january. It is quite possible joe biden would not serve a second term. Backu say, you have to go to probably 1960 and lyndon did youwith kennedy have a Vice President who really won an election. Caroline President Trump ,weeting out, radical left trillions increase in taxes. We know the party line that the white house might take on her as a running mate and potentially becoming president herself. What do you think about drawing over perhaps the undecided . A republican voter who has lost love with some of the policies that have been enacted. Do you think it can draw over an undecided . David i think you gave the answer very wisely in your question. It will be trumps to lose. Now, it looks like, to some degree, the handling of covid19. It is important for kamala just not to scare people away. I dont see anything right now that would make her scare anyone away. The criticism her was that she was too harsh as a prosecutor. But i think it is a good, safe choice. As i say, she is very experienced. She knows her way around a debate stage. Vigorouss a very campaigner. Romaine will see how this shakes out in about three months. Thank you for jumping on the line with us. That is david westin. He hosts balance of power in the middle of the day on bloomberg television. Left special coverage on monday of election 2020. That is going to start at 10 00 p. M. New york time. Hong kong and asia, about 10 00 a. M. Your time. This is bloomberg. Romaine sticking with that breaking news on joe biden, the Presumptive Democratic nominee, choosing his running mate, Kamala Harris. Greer, us, christina professor of Political Science at fort hamm university. I want to go back to what a couple of other guests were touching on, the idea of age. Kamala is much younger than her running mate. She is running against a ticket that includes a president who is also in his 70s. I wonder if her age sort of works in favor of that joe biden acket and maybe appealing little bit more to Younger Voters or not. Basically reverse 2008. When barack obama ran at 44, he basically chose joe biden because of his gravitas, experience in the senate. Joe biden is a little bit older, some voters may not feel as secure about that even though he has been a Public Servant for 40 years. He chose someone who is a little bit younger, who can bring a certain level of energy. Two of them in combination, we are talking about younger and older. Get aeally does help them large crosssection of the Democratic Party as they campaign. Caroline your hard work of research and teaching focuses on that. What does this Campaign Look Like now . Because we cant have our , they canaign events meet as many people as possible, they will have to be really creative. So they will have to use the internet. They will have to use surrogates on different shows and performance. That is podcasts, nontraditional shows. Remember when bill clinton went on the arsenio hall show and played saxophone. Wayswill probably do some to get to as many different types of audiences. The ellen degenerate show comes to mind. Podcasts like oprah and michelle obama. Supporting them and getting their message out to as many people that they would not be able to meet on the Traditional Campaign trail. Taylor give us the Bigger Picture of what this election is about. Of course, trump came in very well when you look at the economy, but it is the handling that hasvid crisis presented some weaknesses. I think for some democrats, going to the polls, their sole desire is just to beat trump. But, when voters go to the polls on november 3, many will be asking themselves, am i better off today than i was four years ago . Americans million currently unemployed and looking for work. Depending on how the coronavirus continues to affect our nation, that will still continue to be a major decision factor. It directly correlates with the economy. Other people will be going to the polls thinking about their lives. Many families will be homeschooling their children. Again, that will factor into who is the best to lead us going into this next stage. Caroline caroline from all of us, this is bloomberg. Emily welcome to bloomberg technology. The first black and Asian American women has been chosen as a Vice President ial candidate. Former Vice President joe biden has chosen california senator