Around 9 10, a speech by chairman powell. Much at the center of a storm in many ways. Fiscal stimulus seems to be off the table as the political backandforth of the rnc and dnc take focus. Really interested to hear what he says about inflation is real yields dropped near alltime lows yet again. Tom the real yields dropping is increasing inflation expectations. I looked this morning at great britain, at the united states, europe, and switzerland, and the rate of change of the inflation expectations, with the u. S. Leading the way to a higher vector versus the other three major countries. Weve got a lot to talk about. Heres Lisa Abramowicz with the morning brief. Lisa it 30 a. M. Is the other bonanza of data ash 8 30 am is the other bonanza of data we are getting 8 30 am is the other bonanza of data we are getting. We are expecting another one million new initial jobless claims filed. This brings 23 of the past would you for weeks at one million or more of the past 24 weeks at one million or more. At 9 10 a. M. , fed chair jay powell speaks from that jackson hole cyber simple cream si. Rson poirier cyber 10 30, President Trump gives his nomination exception speech. Nomination acceptance speech. Tom been labeler reaffirming hislaidler reaffirming guidance, but really didnt want to address 14 unemployment. Lisa heres my question. Three weeks ago, you and i were talking with economist dr. Nomist that said delayed economist after economist that said delayed fiscal stimulus would lead to a decline in stock valuations. We are at new record highs. Mark meadows of President Trumps administration yesterday said it is unlikely we will have any sort of deal on the second round of fiscal stimulus until the end of september. At the earliest dont understand this. Get the data check right now with Christopher Harvey. We welcome all of you on Bloomberg Radio, bloomberg television, a simulcast. We have been thrilled with your response. Lisa, send all of the good news. I dont want any of the hate, any of the shade going to lisa. [laughter] lisa i can handle what. I can handle it. 0. 68 hat nominal yield, inflation expectations, and you end up with the real yield, 1. 05 percent. It will be interesting to see how that reacts off the news. Michael mckee is leading our coverage. I was up in the adirondacks where lisa was, and the skin is peeling. Lisa oh yeah. Thats why you have to portage because youre holding the canoe over your head. Thats good shade. Tom but i do the portage with the aluminum thing underneath. [laughter] Christopher Harvey with us. The problem with Christopher Harvey is when you get his research note, you go damn, because theres always one or two sentence since one or two sentences that are absolutely brilliant. Christopher harvey with wells fargo, you absolutely daniel the you absolutely nail the under ownership of apple computer. How is it possible that apple is under owned . Christopher that is a great question. It is something we have been monitoring for about two years now. We have been scratching our heads why institutional pms have been underweight apple. We talk about the underweight, and they was growth would say, we dont care. We would say, you should. Growth stock. Lets move on. Now a lot of people are saying, how did apple get to where it is. T this point in time that is why we think it continues to grind higher. Tom what is the behavior of Fund Managers as they continue to quarter and . To quarter end . Are they forced to buy these highflying techs . Christopher im not sure if they are forced, but you do hear a lot of the risk managers knocking on the door and saying, you told me two months ago, three months ago you were going to take this up. He told me apple was going to pull back. It hasnt. We need to do something now. You have cash on the Balance Sheets or cash laying around in the portfolio. You have to start at what ties and that because what is happening is relative performance is beginning to decay. Its been a pretty good year for a lot of the managers, so they want to keep that from happening. Lisa theres been ownership more broadly of u. S. Stocks. Can we make that conflation . Can we say that the reluctance to own more apple shows a reluctance to have a heavier overweight in u. S. Stocks . Christopher theres a couple of things going on right now. One of the things that is happening is we are seeing this move to passive. People are starting to get more apple into their portfolio. They are just doing it in a different way. Owners arent waiting around for them to make that move. The other thing, to your point, we have seen this rally. We talked about a summertime melt up. We are there. People have been brought kicking and screaming to this thing. Now we are not saying it is time to leave the party just yet. With think a lot of the good news is priced in, but this is a time where people get squeezed in and funny things do happen. Talking three weeks ago, four weeks ago with economist after economist after stock trader who said if we dont get a second round of fiscal support, we will see stock prices go down. They are at new record highs. Why is this happening . Christopher i think thats why they are economists and not portfolio managers. The second thing we are seeing, what we have been saying is the reason for the runup is things are getting less bad, and continue to get less bad. Anecdotally, there are more people on the road, more people in restaurants. So the economy is slowly grinding higher. You still have basically 0 interest rates, credit spreads that have tightened dramatically , funding widely available, and you still have good reports from many companies, so i think that is really what is going on, and the belief that something will get done. Tom i want to pin you down on a percent move up in spx. How do you feel . Wells fargo, can you quantify singledigit, or dare i say double digit up for the market . Christopher we have been one of the more aggressive off the bottom. We had higher price targets, but we are through our price target at this point in time. We are right, the market is wrong, the market is going to fall apart. We said theres plenty of reasons for this market to continue. Now we are looking less about market direction and more about the portfolio, what you want to own. Our thought is you want to look for companies that have covid data, that have better comps in Fourth Quarter excuse me, First Quarter and Second Quarter of next year. You want more Economic Sensitivity because we do think the economy will continue to grind higher. Tom we welcome all of you this morning on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg television, particularly across sirius xm in the path of hurricane laura. It will go up into the right, and we say good morning to all of you preparing for hurricane laura. What i find so interesting about the thursday is the event structure is so pretty couple to the president s speech tonight, and yet, we really dont know what the various outcomes of the various events of thursday will be. Lisa and you are not going to be chased by a bear in jackson hole. We do know that, which is probably somewhat of a relief for you, but very much the focus is going to be on jay powell. Ism an equity perspective, there perhaps outsized risk that we could see equity response that is more than any response we could see and bonds to something that jay powell says . Christopher theres always that possibility. One of the things when we got the minutes a couple of weeks ago, it wasnt as dovish as a lot of people thought. For a hot minute, we pulled back. I dont know if jay powell is going to talk about inflation, but weve been talking inflation for the last 10 years. Weve flooded the market with liquidity in the united states, globally. It is really hard to go belly up or bankrupt. We have too much capacity. Thats one of the reasons why we are talking about the lack of inflation as the creative destructive process never reaches that natural and. I hear a lot of things about inflation. I will believe it when i see it. Tom Christopher Harvey, thank you so much, with wells fargo this morning. C chandler of benin bird if theockburn writing, framework of chairman powell is hohum, how will the market take it . Huge anticipation for what chairman powell will say on this idea of where is that inflation level appropriate for the fed. What do you think of that . Debitwe are expecting a message from jay powell. How is he going to be more dovish than keeping rates near zero forever, and having a Quantitative Easing Program that is going to respond to any dip in the economy . What is more dovish than that . Tom you mentioned a second look at the gdp numbers, and what we have heard without austin from peter hooper of deutsche bank, no stimulus, no vaccine, he q1,s for a recession q4, to this. A backdrop absolutely extraordinary. Lisa it will be interesting to see what jay powell has to say about stimulus. Hes taken a pretty active role in saying to washington, you need to do your part. That is what is going to keep this economy going. Weve done our part. Tom at 8 30, jobless claims. Alisha levine coming up before claims. I think she is much more cautious, im guessing much more cautious than what we just heard from mr. Harvey. Lisa stay with us. Eight. , negative this is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Hurricane laura is battering louisiana with high winds today. It also brought the threat of a catastrophic storm surge and flooding. The storm came on tour with maximum winds of 150 miles per hour, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the state. Winds have now died down some. , there are concerns that some areas could be uninhabitable for months. Mike pence excepted the Republican Party nomination to be President Trumps running mate again on the third night of the convention. Pence praise to the president and blasted joe biden m. V. P. Pence blasted joe biden vp pence blasted joe biden. Joe biden has been a cheerleader for communist china. He wants to repeal all of the tariffs leveling the Playing Field for american workers, and he actually criticized President Trump for suspending all travel to china at the outset of this pandemic. Spoke fromce historic fort mchenry in baltimore. A white 17yearold police admirer is being held after two people were shot to death during violent protests in kenosha, wisconsin. Demonstrators were protesting the Police Shooting of a black man. The teenager was arrested in illinois about 50 miles from where the shooting l took place about 15 miles from where the shooting took place. In kenosha, a curfew was put in place. The protesters ignored it. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Vp pence where we fought for free and fair trade, and this president stood up to china and ended the era of economics orinda, joe Biden Economic surrender, joe biden has been a cheerleader for communist china. We already gained back nine. 3 million jobs in the last three months alone. Tom night after night of the Democratic National convention and the republican convention, a look back at the previous evenings festivities. Right now on a thursday, no one cares, as we look forward to President Trumps speech tonight. Kevin cirilli joins us. How will the president speak to the people up in sylvania . Kevin hes got ash of pennsylvania the people of pennsylvania . Kevin hes got to talk about jobs, as well as the energy sector. This is really going to be what you saw in President TrumpConvention Speech four years ago in cleveland, ohio. That is a different type of temperament and much more moderate tone, with occasionally sprinkled in some classic, quintessential trumpian remarks. The bottom line is this is an opportunity for the president to really kickstart his reelection campaign. As you and i were talking about offline, the challenge is he doesnt have an opponent who is on the campaign trail and entrance and in front of cameras every day. Tom next monday, we really engage the battle to labor day, and what it really heats up, what would you expect from Vice President biden . Kevin i think you saw a preview in terms of how the democrats are beginning to defend how a biden administration, and how the Obama Administration handle be bola handled ebola. It is going to push back against republicans arguing that joe biden did not have a plan in place to take on the coronavirus. You have seen them come out and attack the republicans for how they have handled the pandemic. Vice president mike pence offering a preview of those political attacks, suggesting that the democrats would not have been in favor of restricting travel in january from china. That is something that is a bunker at that the democrats are saying is not correct. However, that is going to be a key point of contention during the debates leading up to november 3. Lisa are we going to get a surprise policy announcement from President Trump tonight . Kevin i am struck by whether or not there could be. Have been there several key policy announcements this week, whether it be in terms of the u. S. Sanctioning firms from china that are connected to their one belt, one road initiative, or whether it be other policy prescriptions as it relates to china and additional sanctions. I think the biggest question on my mind is where does the president go in terms of additional executive action with the lack of fiscal stimulus. Yesterday i spoke to an advisor out of the white house who told me the president is still very much weighing the option as it relates to a host of different industries, including the airline sector. Lisa as we wait for the jobless claims figure in about an hour and 10 minutes, what is the latest in terms of how long President Trumps executive action can be in effect to get that supplemental income to the newly unemployed . Kevin this is where the Weather Report down in beaumont, texas for hurricane laura is really putting pressure on people like senator john cornyn, a republican in texas up for reelection, and quite honestly in a tougher fight than he would like. He is still trending up in terms of the polls because the fiscal stimulus debate that has dragged on throughout the summer, now youve got hurricane laura , a lot ofhe gulf those lawmakers in both the house and senate, this is going to light a fire under them when their constituents are now dealing with the pandemic and a hurricane. Tom i get any bentley at the morning and go down to work. I understand my life is a normal. Well, guess what . Im seeing a lot of pain out there. Andan, it is really ugly small america. I ask you this question yesterday. The president , i believe, mentioned stimulus yesterday. Where is the even modest stimulus to show the washington flag . Kevin from the political angle, should the president get a deal, he would no doubt campaign on it. From another political angle, speaker pelosi, whether or not there is incentive for her to negotiate with republicans, especially when, truthfully, they view the senate as in play for taking that on election day. One could make the case there is not that much political incentive. Ofm a policy angle, when 48 businesses in these country are small and mediumsize businesses, theres incentive for both parties to come to some kind of will. So i think this is really on a collision course. The final point i would make on this is you look at the polls that suggest that those bases are dug into their respective camps, but look at how the Republican Party has been remade in the trump era. When you see how the working class has been increased 10 nearly since 2010 to the Republican Party. Tom thank you so much, particularly for the 10 year perspective as well. With that perspective, we are andntaged by david westin our republican National Convention average, on radio, on television as well. I find it absolutely extraordinary. You wonder if the political debate is going to be overcome by the Economic Data beginning at 8 30 this morning. Lisa that is really the interesting question. President trump is winning when you look at polls on the economy, and yet the economy is facing a lot more challenges yet, even if the worst of the pandemic is over. I think of that, the 23rd out of 24 weeks with the unemployment above one million, new unemployment claims. How does that translate to a positive message for the future . This is a huge challenge we will see an answer to, perhaps tonight. Tom it speaks to americas farther and farther apart. What have you seen in the bond market in the last 24 to 48 hours as well . I know youre looking at ash white folks i know you are folks, ig . Wait lisa you are seeing the Biggest Companies doing just fine. If you look at the bond sales so far this year, we talk about the record pace. It has come from the behemoths, not the companies that need honey. Youre seeing bond yields dropped precipitously for those big, wellcapitalized companies. For everybody else, there really is a struggle for capital at affordable prices, particularly these smaller firms. Again, a tale of two economies. Tom futures deteriorate. , 22vix was at 21 for a bit solid, and now 23. 34. Some of the tension very clearly as we have seen from a number of economists today. The barbell outcome of a powell speech, no news or substantial news on a new inflation view for the fed. In the yield market, we are back a 1. 4. Both lisa and i looking at the real yield took four digits, 1. 0569 . 0569 we do that because it is a simulcast. Radio loves four digit statistics. Amrita sen on oil, next. It 30 jobless claims. This is bloomberg 8 30 jobless claims. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveilla