Afternoon towards t close. That will be your best guide to what is happening. We are approaching the point in europe and we are up by 1. 73 . The pound is actually catching a little bit as well. Earlier on it was turning around a little bit. Now abide. 2 . Now up by. 2 . Normality has resumed. Yields are a little higher and prices a little lower as we start to maybe get a little bit of a better news when it comes to the story. We are watching what is coming out of the u. K. We are now getting news from astrazeneca saying the covid19 trials, the vaccine trial may resume next week. This has been reported by the financial times. Alix we are watching that as well. Blackrock,from marilyn watson. It has been quite a week for investors in any asset class. You had a tech selloff in the u. S. , rising cases in europe. Looking to the ecb on thursday. Our bond markets pricing in the correct things . Markets aret bond pricing in our the fact you have supportibly ands weolicy from the ecb and need further details from the fed and jackson hole. You look at the ecb tomorrow, we expect very little in terms of new news. But we do get will be the Macro Economic forecast and we expect to see a little bit of improvement there given the fact their thoughts on what will happen. Marilyn . I think we have to make sure your line is stable but also we are starting to see Boris Johnson speaking at 10 downing street. Lets take a listen to with the Prime Minister has to say. Ok. Data from the u. K. And from england. We are starting off of the overall rates in terms of concerned confirmed cases going back to april. They were high numbers. The numbers came right down. As you can see on this graph, the numbers are going up really much more rapidly over the last few days. Next slide please. Its important to think about this in terms of the ages where this is happening. This is good news. The bottom of the graph. That shows in older people and the younger children the rates remain really quite flat. But in some age groups the rates are not going up really quite sharply. At the top of the graph we have the rates in people aged 20 to 29 in the light green. 30 to 39 in the yellow numbers. What you can also see is rapid upticks elsewhere, and in particular the light blue which is quite a broad band of 10 to 19. I will come back to that later. Next slide please. Looking at the test positivity rate, the proportion of tests done that are not to be positive, these are following exactly the same pattern. Thats important because that makes clear it is not just because of increased testing, but this is a real phenomenon where the numbers of cases are going up. Please. Next slide please. We have split out the various ages from 11 to 21 years old. Lines you havewo people in dark blue, 11 to 14, and in the orange 15 to 16. In those groups the rates of rates of increase have been very small and the. If you look at the 17 to 18 in olivel of color o o color, both have gone up quite steeply since the middle of august. Next slide please. Again, exactly the same pattern we have seen guy the briefing from 10 downing street. We will continue to monitor what is happening. Boris johnson will probably speak later. I was expect him to speak a little bit more upfront that he handed it over to his medical team. Looks like we will see an announcement regarding a significant limitation of activity in the u. K. Marilyn watson is with us. As we start to see governments taking stronger action what are the implications for fixed income . Marilyn in terms of lockdowns and i think we will continue to see this for the rest of the year and probably for a large part of next year as well. We will start to see flareups in the virus in different places. It is going to be on a casebycase basis. When you look at the economy, the global economy, the eurozone, the u. K. , the u. S. , all the data is pretty much better than we have been expecting if you want to go. I think you will continue to see actions from governments as they need to do. Backstopping that, you have a Central Banks and essential stimulus. In the u. K. We will have the end of the furlough. We also do have the brexit negotiations. In terms of the u. K. , looking at the bond market in the macroeconomy, the picture is much more murky and harder to see a clear path through. When you look at the euro zone in the u. S. , china, the trajectories are becoming a lot clearer than they had been in previous months. Alix it is a narrative the u. S. Has more room for data to the upside then europe does. Is that reflected in what you are seeing in the bond market . Marilyn when you look at the u. S. , the labor market for example, we continue to see improvements but nevertheless if you look at the Unemployment Rate of 8. 4 compared to 3. 5 before the pandemic, that is still significantly higher. We still have in the u. S. A huge debate about whether to get the additional fiscal stimulus package. I think the economy does continue to need it. Inflation targeting and further support and potentially inflation running a little hotter as it focuses on jobs. When you look at the u. S. Specifically, there are a lot of unknowns around the fiscal stimulus. Also as we continue to see how the pandemic and the virus behaves in different states. The data here, you can continue to see improvement. How much depends on the support we get. Thatbloomberg had a story the ecb was looking to forecastsy economic that are more positive. Is that what we expect to hear from Christine Lagarde . How dovish will she be and what is the set up for the ecb . Weilyn going into the ecb dont respect much in terms of change of policy. They already announced several things over the past few months. We do get new macroeconomic forecasts. We expect to see some improvement there. The data has been better than the previous forecast. We have had the Recovery Fund announced. We have the Pandemic Emergency Program that will also continue to help the market as well. We are seeing different fiscal stimulus coming into play for different economies. When you look at where consensus is in the market, where the ecb is in terms of its forecast, consensus is above the ecb expectations. I think we have room for improvement there. Guy Boris Johnson is speaking at 10 downing street. More up ahead than other European Countries like germany expect. We are increasing our Testing Capacity further to meet rising demand. You can help by only poking a test if you have a fever, a new continuous cough, or you have lost your sense of taste or smell. If you dont have the symptoms and have not been asked to book a test, please dont. Those are the basics. Hands, face, space, and get a test if you have covid symptoms. Since the pandemic began we have asked you to reduce your social contact and limit your interactions with friends and family. I know over time the rules have become quite complicated and confusing. We have spoken to Police Officers about what they need for an effective enforcement regime and listen to feedback from you the public. We are responding and we are simplifying and strengthening the rules, making them easier for everyone to understand and for the police to enforce. I should stress that if we are to beat the virus, everyone should limit social contact as much as possible and minimize interactions with other households. It is safer to meet outdoors and he should keep your distance from anyone you dont live with, even if they are Close Friends or family. In england, for monday we are introducing the rule of six. You must not meet socially in groups of more than six. If you do, you will be breaking the law. Setting, apply in any indoors or outdoors, at home, or in the pub. Will be set out in law and enforced by the police. Anyone breaking the rules risks being dispersed and possibly arrested. This single measure replaces both the existing ban on gatherings of more than 30, and the current guidance on allowing two households to meet indoors. To you only need remember the rule of six. There will be some limited exemptions. For example, if a single six,hold is larger than obviously they can still gather. Covidsecurity venues like places of worship, gyms, restaurants, hospitality venues can still hold more than six in total. Within those venues however there must not be individual groups larger than six, and groups must not make socially larger groups. Education and work settings are unaffected. S andsecurity wedding funerals can go ahead up to 30 people, and organized sports can proceed. As we found on previous occasions, this rule of six will throw up difficult cases. For example, two oh households will no longer be able to meet if they were to exceed the limit of six people. Im sorry about that. I wish we did not have to take this step. But as your Prime Minister i must do what is necessary to stop the spread of the virus and to save lives. Of course, we will keep the rule of six under constant review and only keep it in place as long as is necessary. I want to see, the public wants to see stronger enforcement of the rules which are already in place. I have tasked the cabinet with increasing enforcement. I would like to thank the police has always and other authorities for the work they are doing to keep us all safe. , venues were people meet socially will be legally required to request Contact Details of a member of every party, record and retain ande details for 21 days, provide them to nhs test and trace without delay when required. We will support local authorities to make further and faster use of their powers to close venues that are breaking the rules and pose a risk to Public Health. Will be levied against hospitality venues that failed to ensure their premises remain covidsecure. We will boost the Enforcement Capacity of local authorities by introducing covidsecure marshalls to help ensure social distancing in town and city centers and registered Environmental Health officers the local authoritys can draw upon as a support. We will simplify the passenger locator form needed for traveling to the u. K. And take measures to ensure these are completed and checked before departure. Stepping up enforcement efforts at the border to ensure arrivals are complying with the quarantine rules. We will restrict the Opening Hours of the premises in some local areas. At the present time we must revise plans to pilot larger audiences in venues this month and review our intention to return audiences to stadiums and Conference Centers from the first of october. That does not mean we will scrap the program entirely. We have to review it and abridge it, and the culture secretary will say more about that shortly. I want to be clear. These measures are not another national lockdown. The whole point of them is to avoid a Second National lockdown. By bearing down on social contact and improving enforcement, we can keep schools and businesses open in the knowledge they are covidsecure. I have always said schools and colleges should only ever be shut again is a very, very last resort. As the chief medical officer has risks to longterm of notns life chances going to school are significant r greater than the health risks of going back to school. It has been fantastic to see so many children back in school this term. I want once again to thank all of our teachers and to reassure parents, pupils, schools are safe. University terms will also begin soon. Criticalniversities is for the students life chances and the health risks to individuals are low. Many University Students are in the age bracket where we have seen the infection rates rise recently, as chris was just explaining. My message to students is simple. Please for the sake of your education, your parents and your grandparents. Cover your face, make space, and dont socially gathering groups of more than six now and when term starts. The department of education is publishing updated guidance on how they can operate in a covid secure way, including a clear request not to send students home in the event of an outbreak. I am very grateful to universities for their continued cooperation and planning for the return of students. The measures i have set out today will help us control the virus, but wont on their own be enough to allow a more significant return to normality. Patrick will set up in a moment where we are on the vaccine and treatment. We are not there yet. There are no guarantees. Summer we have been working on an alternate plan which could allow life to return to closer to normality. That plan is based on mass testing. Up to now we have been using testing primary to identify people who are positive so we can isolate them from the community and protect highrisk groups. That will continue to be our priority. We are working hard to increase our Testing Capacity to 500,000 tests a day by the end of october. Future we in the near are hoping to use testing to identify people who are negative and are not infectious so we can allow them to behave in a more formal way in the knowledge they cant infect anyone else with the virus. Newhink we hope we believe types of tests will become available. Ande swabs or saliva content around result in 90 or even 20 minutes. Crucially, it is possible to deploy these tests on a far bigger scale than any country has yet achieved. Literally millions of tests processed every single day. That level of test what allow d more normal lives without the need for social distancing. Theaters and sports venues could test an audience one day and let in all those with negative results. All those not infectious. Workplaces could be opened up to all of those who test negative in the morning. Exactly as in the world before covid. Those isolating because they are a contact for quarantining after traveling abroad could, after a period be tested and released. Thats an ambitious agenda but we will pilot this approach next month with audiences and indoor and outdoor venues. Then we hope to go nationwide. There are a number of challenges. We need the technology to work. We need to source the necessary materials to manufacture so many tests. We need to put in place a Distribution Network and work through the numerous logistical challenges. We are not there yet. As we manageat this period of high demand, is important if individuals dont have symptoms and have not been specifically advised to take a test, they should not be coming forward. They could be taking a test away from someone who really needs require aan over giant collaborative effort from governments, from business, from Public Health professionals, scientists and many more. The work is underway now and he will get on at pace until we get there. We are hopeful this approach will be widespread by the spring. Iteverything comes together, may be possible for even the most difficult sectors like the theaters to have to life much closer to normal before christmas. As i said before, all this progress is contingent on continued scientific advances and i cannot 100 guarantee that those advances will be made. That is why it is so important we take these tough measures now. Continue to drive this and we will beat this virus before too long. So lets Work Together. Lets follow the rules. Meeting groups of no more than six. Wash your hands, cover your face, make space. Patrickot hand over to for the latest on vaccines and treatments and then we will get to questions from the public and media. Good afternoon guy the Prime Minister speaking and now heading over to the chief scientific advisor who will update on vaccines. We will look for headlines there. If we get them, we will bring them to you. Boris johnson reimposing or imposing some relatively strict measures on the u. K. He maintains this will not affect the return to work he is so desperate to see, and the return to school that started and hopes will be maintained. With case counts rising in many parts of europe what will be the economic effect . Marilyn watson is still with us. Lets talk about where we go with this. The last thing i asked about was the ecbs belief the economic trajectory is starting to look a little better. If the science and the virus dont allow people to get back to work, if governments are forced to reimpose stricter rules, and we just heard Boris Johnson doing that in the u. K. , how was i going to affect the data, data already showing signs of slowing . Marilyn that will obviously impact the data on a country by country or region by region basis. In chinad china robust growth coming through after the appeared to essentially limit the spread of the virus. You look at the u. K. Or elsewhere and its a little different at the moment. I think over the broader context we have shifted to a slightly different environment now from where we were in march or april to today. We have a lot of people that are very effectively working from home. We have localized restrictions and lockdowns to make sure a particular part of the country can continue to actively get back to work. We have seen pretty decent data coming through, particularly in terms of goods, consumptions. Services are a little slower and they are going to be negatively impacted for much longer i would expect even the nature of hospitality, etc. , as Boris Johnson laid out. Much moreking on a localized basis in specific sectors. Alix bifurcated recovery bifurcated lockdown. You must have bifurcated investment strategies. What do you . Marilyn the first one is diversification is key. I think a focus on where the market is now means if you look at the investmentgrade market, it is still pretty tight. They are more neutral in terms of secondgrade credit. We do have a slight preference to maybe areas of the higher market reading a decent income. We are very focused on a casebycase basis. We are still short bunds. We think we will continue to see compression. Volatilitys on the which will be key going forward. You have relatively tight spreads and investment grades and elsewhere. And obviously there is a huge amount going on in terms of the political steps Different Countries are taking with the virus and the Central Banks as w