Comes to the treasury market. The dollar taking it on the chin. Safe haven bid for the yen. Out yettting taken again after yesterdays slide, dragging Energy Equities with that uncertainty rains in the commodity. President trumps positive covid test and what is going on behind the scenes not the white house. Joining us is mario parker, Bloomberg White house reporter. What do we know at this moment . Mario everything is kind of unclear, given that the white house was taken by surprise with the president and first lady testing positive last night. We are starting to get some inckle sin some trickles in terms of who has negative results. We know that Jared Kushner and ivanka trump, two of the aides,nts other closest have negative tests, as well as his son barron. Right now we know that theres negative tests that have come in. We are not sure just yet how many other white house staff will be quarantined. Guy thank you very much, indeed. How on earth was the white house cut by surprise by this is a key question. Another surprise, another big story. This in terms of what we have seen for the economy. The payroll number coming out a little bit earlier on, and it was significantly weaker than markets expectations. Lets bring in mike mckee to give us his assessment. Lastel this is the payrolls report before the election, but nobody really cares and the markets today. So much going on these days. The payrolls number was a disappointment, and the unemployment number was a surprise, but both have significant caveats. Employment in local government, education and State Government education fell by 280,000 because all of those custodians and cooks and bus drivers normally hired at this time of year are not on payrolls. Everyone go into Virtual School in most places around the country. Without the misclassification problem, it would have come in at 8. 3 . The economy clearly slowing from august into september. Some of the categories we took a onlyat, construction, 26,000. Manufacturing, 66,000. Retail, 142,000. Transportation and warehousing up. Amazon and others have been hiring because people are buying online these days. Accommodation and food service, all of the waiters and waitresses who lost their jobs, that was up by 251,000 jobs restored. Labor force participation did 61. 4 . 3 to that was led by a drop in women 25 to 49, falling 0. 7 . That suggests that maybe again, covid having an impact as may be more women are staying home because kids were going to Virtual School. Alix thank you so much for unpacking all of that. The third story is the Market Reaction to both of those top stories. Joining us now is scarlet fu. Scarlet october living up to its reputation for surprises. News of the president s Covid Infection sent assets risk off. It really set the tone for equities. Donald trump sent a tweet out just before 1 00 a. M. New york time. They then bounced around until the jobs report, which also disappointed, right before the market opened. Big tech is not even getting a bid at this traditional safe haven. As the white house undertakes the mother of all Contact Tracing efforts, uncertainty goes way up, and markets hate uncertain. It is always reflected in the vicks. Take a look at what is in the vix. Take a look at what is happening here. There is a president for stocks falling in the runup to a long, drawnout conclusion. The s p dropped almost 10 during the five week drama into thousand after the florida recount in 2000 after the florida recount. Wti falling to 36 a barrel. Supply, especially from libya and russia, is increasing as demand continues to suffer. Energy stocks are the worst performers for september, down 15 . They are among the biggest underperformers today. When you look across other Asset Classes, the dollar did fall, and the treasury market did see a bid, but that is reversing a bit as 90 pelosi says she does see something will get done on fiscal stimulus. Perhaps that could remove one source of uncertainty. Guy theres a lot of it today, isnt there . Lets get some analysis on what we are seeing. Christopher smart, chief global strategist and head of the bearings Investment Institute the barings Investment Institute, going is now. Theres a great deal of uncertainty around today. Can you capture that for us and talk to us about where you see that uncertainty manifesting most in markets these markets . Christopher you are right, markets hate uncertain. This is a breaking story. What we do know right away is the president will be taking time off of the campaign trail. That is badaign, news because that is what drives his base and helps them pushback divided message. To the extent that markets see through that nearterm uncertainty, they may begin to have more confidence than what they were already pricing in, which was joe biden leading in the polls, including in some key states. You could see a world very quickly where the uncertainty around the outcome of the election, and election that goes to the courts, that has hanging dire, all of that very uncertainty we were just talking about, maybe that scenario starts dissolving in the minds of investors and markets come back to more normal levels, pricing and a bite and victory as they were before. Having said all of that, you know better than i do that we are very early in the story. Theres a lot that could come. If a week is a lifetime in politics, we have four and a half lifetimes ahead of us. Alix christopher, over the next 48 hours, what are the key buzzwords, the key statements that he will be paying attention to that investors need to key in on. Theres going to be so much noise. Isistopher if the market first and foremost reacting to uncertainty around the president and his role in the election iscome, the second focus obviously on the stimulus bill. These comments from nancy pelosi are very helpful, but we really need to hear comments from mitch mcconnell. And know that the deal that the speaker and treasury secretary mnuchin are able to strike will pass muster with the senate. We have been thinking all along that that will require the president s direct involvement and him getting behind a package. Whether he is able to do that, how much he is able to do that, how effective that will be, we still have some question marks to answer. Guy as we work our way through the next four weeks, and as you say, it is going to feel like longer, what do i do as an investor . , but i amolatility surprised to do that because biden is more likely to win . If we have a clear victor potentially, that will become more likely because of what is happening. If i think i need to hide out, do i hide out in cash . Do i by the tech stocks . Buy the patient ui tech stocks do i buy the tech stocks . How do i position myself defensively . Christopher we will know a lot more over the next 24 to 36 hours, in terms of who else might have been affected, how quickly could the president be back on his feet, will there be a stimulus deal or not. I think that is a very important waiting period right now. Markets startr, looking back at the data we have just seen in the job numbers. The improvement is slowing. The recovery momentum is slowing. That needs to be factored in. But the trajectory is still moving in the right direction. We still have a fed that is very supportive. If we have a stimulus package, that could drive money toward risk assets, at the same time as we have more clarity on the president and the role he will be able to play in the campaign. Alix House Speaker nitze plus he sounding much more positive a few moments ago than she did even 48 hours ago Speaker Nancy Pelosi sounding much more positive a few moments ago than she did even 48 hours ago. She believes a middle ground will be found in agreement. Is there any procedural issues that might delay it . How quickly can something get through congress and then get money into peoples pockets . Christopher i think we have seen in march and april that money get out the door pretty quickly. There were some systems that had to be set up, but those are up and running. Think a lot of the money will come relatively quickly. And senateight republicans are able to fall in toe, we expect they all want go home pretty quickly anyway to start their electoral campaigns. So i am not too worried about if we can get it done within the next two or three days or two or three sessions. I am pretty optimistic the money will come out quickly. If it is not, we will have to probably wait until december or january. Guy can we have a quick conversation about the payroll number today . It was weak, but this was a september number. Subsequent to this survey being carried out, we have had significant job losses in places like disney. 28,000 jobs likely to go there. The october number is therefore likely to be very weak, and will come out very close to the election. What is your read of each directory currently for employment of the trajectory currently for employment, and how do you think investors are positioned if we continue to see this data disappointing . Christopher i think our view is that the economy is recovering, but momentum is slowing down. So it is going to be very hard to see a lot of job gains in the months ahead because even as the new stimulus comes out the door, company by company, we are going to see cutbacks. Companies getting ready for slower demand next year. It is going to be very differentiated across the economy. Travel and leisure hit harder than other industries. But overall, we are seeing ourselves moving to much more activity next year, but still not a great economy. In the jobs numbers, you are going to see that very differentiated across different investments. That is what investors are going to have to keep in mind. Arere seeing companies that even less affected by covid using this as a time to right size, coming off of 9, 10 years of recovery, of growth in the united states. So this is a moment where they can take some steps, and that is going to make the unemployment numbers messier and slower over the next months. Alix and investors dont like messy. Christopher smart, thank you very much. Coming up, following that story, what trumps diagnosis tells us about the efficacy of rapid covid testing. We will discuss with dr. On mesh alja on whatamesh ad to watch. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump i have a mask right here. I put a mask on when i think i need it. Tonight is an example, everybodys had a test and you have social distancing and all of the things you have to. But i wear masks when needed. When needed i wear masks. I dont wear masks like him. Every time you see him, hes got a mask. He could be speaking to hundred feet away and he shows up with the biggest mask ive ever seen. Alix that was during tuesdays twoidential debate, days before he tested positive. Joining us to talk about it is dr. Amesh adalja. How can symptoms evolve, and what is the timeline we need to really be focusing on in terms of Trumps Health . Get x couple of days will be key. President trump is somebody that is at risk for severe disease because he is older, because he is obese, and because he does have symptoms. Does he develop fever, shortness of breath . Those are going to be the key things we will watch over the next couple of days to see what his trajectory will be. Guy is the abbott id test good enough . Dr. Adalja no test is going to be good enough anything about how we are using them. They are going to miss some cases because tests are just a moment in time. Theres going to be a period of time where you test negative, and you might test positive a day later. Linked with social distancing, face coverings, all the rest of it. It cant get the risk down to zero. This is exactly why. You can test negative one day and then test positive because you had exposure in between. Alix what we hear is that people close to trump get tested every day because they have exposure to President Trump. Do we know anything about the , did the test fail . Was it a window of time that opened up . Dr. Adalja i suspect it is probably a window of time because they are ostensibly testing. There are false negatives that can occur. I would have to look at the deal the detail of the whole testing log, but i suspect it is probably because tests arent good a couple of days later. They are only telling you that at that moment, you are not infected. Is there anything that we can do, or the doctors close to the president , what can they do to lessen the symptoms . Can they start pretreating or using remdesivir or drugs like that early now, maybe to reduce the potential complication further down the road . Dr. Adalja individuals with mild symptoms usually get ated with symptomaticall with symptomatic types of medicine. Think this is something i would expect the White House Team would be looking at and the kink about, a Clinical Trial that is appropriate for the president and thinking about, a Clinical Trial that is appropriate for the president. Alix some airports are starting to look at rapid tests for those boarding airlines, and for schools reopening, etc. Is that something we need to put a lot of effort into right now based on this . Dr. Adalja not really. When we talk about screening for airports and schools, we are trying to do a symptom at a screening to say, do asymptomatic screening to say, is this person contagious . Those dont necessarily have to be as sensitive as tests that determine what you are sick with. I think we will see home tests that are cheaper and easier. They tell you you dont have any symptoms, are you contagious to other people. That is an important question that we need to answer in settings like schools and airplanes. Broadly, thisink will change the trajectory of the way that america treats the virus . Distancing . , social do using this is a Pivotal Moment in your assessment of how you see behavior changing throughout the whole course . It is unclear at this point because weve had prominent people infected before. We had governors, congressmen, senators. Does it move the dial doesnt move the dial for many people. This is an example of the fact that the virus doesnt respect to you are. If you are in a high risk group, it is very important that you take appropriate precautions. Minimizing social interaction, avoiding crowds. Concretized by but has happened. Alix this has been broadcast all of the all over the news, the president s age, his body mass index. How can that exacerbate the symptoms . Dr. Adalja if you are older, you have less physiological reserve, meaning any infection can be a little bit worse in you, and sometimes severely worse. That is definitely the case with covid19. As you get older, your immune system changes. It is not as robust as when you are younger. Obesity, for the same reasons, will decrease your physiological reserve. It decreases your lung capacity. Obesity is a metabolic condition and does alter the way your body physiology works. We have seen it in multiple case studies, that older individuals above 60 and those who are obese have a higher rate of hospitalization and disease, so you have to be much more cautious with that group, and we recommend that they continue to be mindful of their contacts and what activities they are partaking in because they can did up because they could end up hospitalized with covid19. Guy Boris Johnson was very sick in the u. K. With covid19. Thank you very much, indeed. This is bloomberg. Alix live from new york, im alix steel, with guy johnson in london. This is bloomberg markets. Scarlet fu is joining us. End of the Third Quarter, beginning of the fourth. Scarlet im keeping an eye on biotech stocks and therefore the etfs that track these kind of companies. In the premarket when i checked to see the most actively traded stocks by value, everything was in the red, whether it was growth or value or tech or energy, which is always down these days, but a handful of Biotech Companies were higher. I suppose that is on the idea that one of these could be a Lottery Ticket if it is involved with a successful covid19 vaccine. Of the biotech etfs and the bloomberg, this is higher for the fourth time in five days, rounding off a 2 gain this week. Its rise this year is 19 . This is an equal weighted fund. These Mother Companies have the same waiting as the biggest names. The Smaller Companies have the same weighting as the biggest names. Theres a lot of focus on whether the present will get access to one of the vaccines early because of his diagnosis, whether one of these companies will produce the vaccine he will take. No one knows anything right now, but you can see moderna up 3 , and astrazeneca and Johnson Johnson are slightly lower. Biotechb, the nasdaq etf, is moderately lower. It is a market cap weighted fund, so even though it has or numbers, it is influenced by the biggest holdings. The big picture, when you look at what has been going on in the Third Quarter and as we start the fourth quarter, value continues to see inflows. If we have a chart we can pull up, you can see the rotation out of growth companies, and in particular, big tech, continues. Green at the very end indicates money that is going into value funds, continuing to see nine weeks of inflows. Back to you. Guy thank you very much, indeed. Coming up next from the white house, larry kudlow. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Guy 3 30 in the afternoon here in london. We are getting a briefing from Michel Barnier of the eu on brexit negotiations. This is what he is saying right now. Divergence must be overcome in the next few weeks. He is noting a lack in progress ,n some important brexit topics serious divergences on major matters. Isnt sounding particularly positive right now. No major reaction in the pound, basically indicating we need to get these done and dusted over