Covid19. His physician warned he may not be entirely out of the woods. Global stocks still see modest gains. Hong kong maintains its coronavirus social distancing measures. 34 u. S. States see more virus cases than they did a month ago. The cdc warns the virus can spread indoors in the air beyond six feet. Deutsche banks ceo tells bloomberg exclusively it could consider m a as early as next year, but with one caveat. For us, it is important that we are not a junior partner. That means we first have to sustainably increase our profitability. We are just under an hour away from the start of cash trading in europe. We have german factory orders coming out on the ticker. Rising orders in august 4. 5 month over month. That is better than the estimate sorry well, the estimate and the previous reading or both 2. 8 . 4. 5 beat the estimate and the prior reading. Yearoveryear, you have to drop 2. 2 . It is not as bad as the 3. 8 that was estimated by economists, and not as bad as the 7. 3 drop we previously deemed. Slightly backward looking, but a little bit of the recovery. Thatadds to the optimism is keeping stocks, or futures i should say, just treading water. The European EquityIndex Futures just above the zero line with dax futures up almost 0. 1 . Euro stoxx 50 futures up a little bit more. U. S. Futures are mixed. Nasdaq futures down. Maybe a little concern on the house panel that wants to stop marketplace owners like apple and amazon from selling their own goods. I guess it is only digital marketplace owners. You can still get Grocery Store brand goods from the Grocery Store you shop in most likely. Dow jones and s p futures higher. Watch for theing divergence between nasdaq futures and the rest. Update try to get an from our team. We did see stocks with the nasdaq up more than 2 by the close. Europe also performed well. Futuresoint out, the picture for europe looking fairly flat positive. Global equities seem to be looking on the bright side. Gains coming through on the gmm. Stimulus seems to be playing into a better picture for Global Equity markets. Yields received a boost since the beginning of october. Perhaps putting increased odds on a biden win. We will talk to the markets live team in just a moment. Lets return to our top story. Donald trump returned to the white house after three days of hospital treatment for covid19. In a video he urged americans not to be afraid of the virus. Pres. Trump dont let it dominate. Dont let it take over your lives. We are the greatest country in the world. We are going back to work. Lets get more with derek on in the white house and on capitol hill. President trump left Walter Reed Medical Center and returned to the white house. What is next . I suppose we are all everybody wishes him well but we are also mindful of many cases we have heard about in our own lives where people have deteriorated. What is next for the president . That is quite right. Has this. Trump still he has not gotten over covid. , he and the white house staff are going to be limited in terms of who can see him and get in contact. When they do, they are going to have to wear personal protective equipment. President trump has been very keen to get back to the white house. It was held triumphantly by his team. He got there, you saw video of him getting out of marine one on his own. Of stairs,flight being on the balcony, mask off. All of that was turned into a slickly produced video. There have been fundraising appeals throughout the last hours from the trumps recovery so far. Stressing those points of, you cannot let the virus control your life area President Trump lanes to be at this next debate we are told. The biden camp is a little more cautious. They are saying they are happy to debate, but it has to be safe to do so. I think for all of the people he lliance you are seeing out of the trump camp, not everybody is, hey, great, this is over. That is not the line you are hearing out of the biden campaign. But certainly out of many others as well. President get there, takes his mask off, says dont be scared of this thing, is this the taxi takes in the next the the tack he takes in the next debate . Is that the line hes going to push . I have heard two trump allies come out and say donald now has personal experience with this virus and that means hes better equipped to take it on the joe biden. That is a line that is being tested right now. We will see how it holds and how it plays and whether or not trump takes it at the next debate. But let us be clear. Overwhelminglyng they trust joe biden more on the handling of the coronavirus. At the same time they trust trump more on the handling of the economy. To the extent those things are linked, right, that coronavirus woes are harming the economic picture, so to the extent that people think trump does not really have control on it and he does not have control sufficient that he got it himself, that is theoretically good for the biden campaign. Trump can try and pivot, maybe that would be helpful. I think what is going to be instructive is the next couple of days we are going to see polls come out that were in the field after that diagnosis. It is possible that was a watershed event and we will see in the polls exactly what that means, both nationally and also in those critical swing states. Anna that is the piece of the jig so that seems to be missing. Jigsaw that seems to be missing. Mark cudmore in singapore, we saw yesterday equity markets rose on expectations maybe of fiscal stimulus, the recovery of the president , maybe just adding on a biden when thinking that is what the next polling data is going to show us. What is the decisionmaking process from here for markets . As we watch the health of the president and that narrative unfold, what are you focused on . The next catalyst is that divided view about what drove yesterday. It was one of those strange days where people with democratic leanings were going, more stimulus. It looks certain biden is going to win. Certainly to back that up you get the idea that you see the steepening yield curve and a weaker dollar. All these things tie in with democratic victory. If you are a republican you go stocks are rallying because trump is beating the virus. This shows he is there to leave the economy back and this will help and be good for the economy. Whichever way you are leaning, you had a reason to attribute. I think we saw the steepening yield curve was the most interesting thing. The idea we are going to get stimulus forthcoming, whether because you are getting a thecratic wave or because idea that now that trump has had covid hes going to make sure we get this where we needed before the election, again you can divided divide it. The stimulus hopes are really the driver right now. More are these markets stimulus means more debt and the debt to gdp load is getting heavy already, isnt it . You have given me a question i want to say yes to, but i dont know if i agree with reason. These markets are shortterm. They trade off the latest headline. I think in terms of the debt component, that is just a much longer term thing. It is all right for investors not to care about that right now especially since the world has bottomed to some extent with monetary financing. But you are right, overall, longerterm, this is a burden we have to look ahead at. What are the consequences of that . I think they are very much focused on stimulus and they are right to be shortterm in that extent, in that way. Anna mark cudmore, Bloomberg Markets live managing at a tour. You can join the debate with the markets live team. Tell you whats coming up in the program. Deutsche bank remains focused on executing its through teaching plan. Strategic next, the interview with the Deutsche Bank ceo. Ank ceo. Matt welcome back to Bloomberg Markets. We are still over 45 minutes away from the start of cash equity trading. A mixed picture in terms of futures right as ftse futures fall, cac and dax futures just barely treading water. Deutsche bank could consider a merger or acquisition as early as next year. This profitability and share price recovered. Told me then sewing bank remains laser focused on implementing its turnaround plan. We see an increasing domestic deals, not yet crossborder. Things like Capital Market and banking unions, not with the way it should be. And yes, covid for sure accelerated certain developments. Scale is an issue. Integrate to fully two or three years ago. We are well underway. That is happening in other countries, too. It is domestic so far. Crossborder i would say matt every time i talked to a bank ceo they tell me they are not ready at the European Union level. Whenever i talk to eu leaders they say, youre free to do crossborder deals. Which shoe has to drop first . Both are right. We are free to do crossborder deals, but if the regulatory headwind and certain restrictions are still there, the free flow of liquidity or capital is not there to a degree which really makes such a merger reasonable and constructive, and obviously something still needs to happen. To wait for further development. Regulators understand this issue and i am confident we will see progress on the banking unions side. I know the german finance minister is working on this. Is the time being, my view you will see domestic mergers before crossborder mergers. Matt you have the most audacious Transformation Plan the bank has seen in decades. For that mean you rule out now any acquisitions . Christian the focus of Deutsche Bank is to finalize the transformation. I would say we are laser focused on this one. Over the last 15 months proves our point this transformation was and is the right one for the bank. This is top priority. Matt but what does that mean exactly . When is the transformation going to be out of point when you can finally start to consider bigger deals . And 2020rstepped 2019 are kind of the key years. The second half of 2019 and the full year 2020 where we really have to focus on transformation. We made Good Progress in q3. 2019 and 2020 is the key of the transformation. With certain items still to come , our Key Financial Targets for the year 2022, it is a three to four year transformation. The first two are key. So far we have been very successful. Management focus needs to continue. Matt when you look beyond that and you hear reports in the financial boulevard press about axel webers dream mergers, do you think Deutsche Bank could be part of a big deal . Christian in general idation must happen in europe. We need to be competitive with u. S. Banks from the point of investing into technology. You need a certain size for that. The theme of consolidation is something europe will see. For us it is important we are not a junior partner to such thoughts. That means we first have to sustainably increase our profitability. That was Deutsche Banks ceo christian sewing speaking exclusively to us at bloomberg. Yesterday the german day of industry. Lets get our bloomberg first word news. President donald trump returns to the white house after three days of treatments for covid19 at the military hospital. Officials plan to restrict physical access to him as he continues his recovery. In a sign of defiance honor on arriving at the white house removed his mask and refused to put it back on entering the residence. Euro area finance ministers the sole picked candidate to replace the top policy team in december. It means the executive board will not achieve gender balance which may be contentious in European ParliamentBoris Johnson will commit to boosting offshore wind power. Speaking at the conservative party conference, he said Renewable Energy can drive the recovery. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in this isn 120 countries bloomberg. Coming up on the program, president returns from hospital. Joe biden opens up a clear lead in the polls. Why arent stocks starting to rule out election volatility . Ion volatility . Anna welcome back to the European Market open. Mixed withthe u. S. The nasdaq underperforming because of regulation there. European futures flat. Not buying into reduced political risk. That is despite the fact real clear politics is showing joe biden with his Strongest National League june, ahead of barack obama and george bush at this stage of the campaign. Futures for november remain above 30 showing traders do not believe chaos can be avoided. Us now is an Investment Committee member at coming out do you think markets should still be as nervous as they are . Around the outcome of the election, despite what we have been seeing leading up to president s diagnosis . Yes, there is clearly one key factor of uncertainty. This scenario of a stalemate remains quite present. S is reflected in revisedty has somewhat for the weaker and there is good news. Seen in to what we have 2000, markets are more prepared for such a scenario. It matter to markets whether it is biden or trump . As long as we get a clear victory either way, would a clear victory for donald trump with the markets be able to breathe a sigh of relief there . The worst scenario is a stalemate and potentially a prolonged period of uncertainty after the election and the nomination. This period where the fiscal package needs to be negotiated, this would be the worst scenario. Then again, whether it is mr. Trump or mr. Biden who is elected in fact, would be rather different than what we are looking at. Price movement. Week, beginning of this we are seeing the nasdaq underperforming. We are seeing a steeper yield curve, higher rates, higher real rates. All of those are pointing toward the probability of markets implying mr. Biden being elected. Matt we are going to keep you with us for more. We have Little Movement in terms leastures right now or at a little bit of a mixed picture in terms of european and u. S. Futures. Still waiting to get some direction this morning in markets after President Trump came home last night. Backwardation by 2021. And as we have been talking about, the possibility of a biden win pushing yields down. Anna 30 minutes to go until the start of cash equity trading this tuesday. European futures fairly undecided. Plenty of centralbank action today. Christine lagarde will take part in a Video Conference on economic and monetary union. Euro area finance ministers picked to join her team at the ecb. Reserve chair Jerome Powell will speak at the National Association for business economics, their annual meeting. At 1 00 a. M. Tomorrow, still london time, boj governor kuroda will address the conference. That is always very popular. Lets get your morning call. Decision makeba november a more live meeting according to economist . It certainly does. You will remember it was initially called we would see a rate cut. That was pushed back to november saying today was going to be about the budget, about australia. Capital markets joining on that saying even though we saw a rates hold today as euro. 25 , in november you could see a basis point cut taking the 0. 1 alsoash rate to saying the rba would commit to buying bonds. Expectseconomics additional purchases of government bonds. Greg james suggesting you would see a rate cut come november, but he is jumping on that qualitative easing could be in bond purchases. There is one thing that is clear and that is that rates are going to remain lower for longer into 22, 23, good news for the iness sector an anna we seem to have seen the bond market deciding for itself or at least factoring in the chances of a biden win more seriously. What are you hearing from analysts . Yes, a similar call we have heard a lot, that we can the more fiscal spending and that could weigh on yields coming saying youh a call would see lower yields under a biden presidency. There would be a limit to what you would see in the 10 year as well according to Cibc World Markets in tokyo, saying bidens policies would drive the 10 year yield lower, but the limit in the drop would be limited to about 50 basis points. He does not see it falling further than that. We are quite a way away from 50 basis points at the moment. Brentwe have a call on from Morgan Stanley. Tell us about backwardation. Could be coming back in late 2021 of into Morgan Stanley. According to Morgan Stanley. Morgan stanley analysts analysts coming out with this call based on number of factors. Brent could fall back into backwardation with the market undersupplied on a modest recovery in demand and subdued nonopec supply. This comes after Morgan Stanley lifted their target call for brent into the second half of 2021 by five dollars a barrel to 50 a barrel. Anna thanks very much. Juliette saly with your morning calls. Lets get back to strategy. Kevin, i wanted to start with your thoughts on china right now. It is golden week and we see the chinese population in under nine months or so of being stuck inside seems to be back on the move. Levels forjewels golden week are less than last year with 25 Million People traveling domestic domestically. How do you invest around recovery in china . China has been among our Core Investments within our Global Equity funds. What is happening is quite remarkable. Managingry has been very well, the pandemic. It was the first to be affected but the first two get out of it as well. Very strong recovery. A quitebined with modest fiscal option, quite modest monetary options, it is on a strong path to recovery. First exports, now toward services. The way we invest, we invest mainly in local domestic plays, longterm structural things we chinese consumers, that is true for electric vehicles, commerce and ecommerce stances as well. There are lots of things to be done in china. Best where do you