Tom for the International Audience and for you, i will just say that the nation stopped to see this. There is no other way to put it. Obviously a Vice President ial debate, Kevin Cirilli is on top of that. But far more, we will find the path of this virus with the president. He says he is maybe not immune. Rumor has it he is not immune, he does have the virus. So we will see on that. But far more, we will see the polling after the debate, and then the polling after this illness, and that will be fascinating. That is a great unknown. Francine and that will of course play out into how the market perceives the election on november 3. Less than 30 days away. Lets get to first word news with ritika gupta. Ritika President Trump is released from the hospital where he was treated for coronavirus, leaving Unanswered Questions about his condition. The white house doctor says the president may not be entirely out of the woods yet. He said further care would be provided over the next few days. Plus there are doubts that President Trump will abide by constraints needed to keep an outbreak at the white house from being worse. Despite just being released from the hospital, president is scheduled to debate joe biden again next week. To aampaign will not agree moderator being able to mute candidates when their time has expired. That would prevent the kind of interruptions that marred last weeks debate. How Speaker Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin will resume talks on a stimulus package, although there is no sign that they are close to a deal. British Prime MinisterBoris Johnson is back in Green Investment as a cure for the countrys coronavirus downturn. Johnson will commit to boosting the u. K. s offshore wind power in a speech today. In prepared remarks, he will say that in 10 years offshore wind will be powering every home in the country. It is part of the delayed plan for a socalled green industrial revolution. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you so much. They focus is firmly on the election in the u. S. , and firmly on exactly what it means for data. Tom suggested it is about the polls and polling. If you look at european data, it is really struggling for direction. Nowaw a rally early on, and it is fizzling out. The focus is on tech stocks, leading losses in europe, looking at hardware maker logitech slumping. Tom you see the statistical challenges that are there with dow 28,000 on, the close, and the vix ought to be at 25 or 23 or some would say under 20, but nevertheless it is elevated with all the uncertainty. The other thing is there has been a seismic break out in the bond market. Whatever anyone can say across all credit, there is no question there are higher yields. Steeper yield curve, a point to spread. Elevated from a 50 level that we have seen. 30year bond, 1. 57 gets my attention. Francine President Donald Trump returning to the white house after three days of hospital treatment for covid19. We are all watching. He spoke shortly after in the video to the American People. Pres. Trump i stood out front, i lead. Nobody thats a leader would not do what i did. And i know theres a risk, theres a danger, but thats ok. Now and better come and maybe im immune, i dont know. Now is theoining me director for the center on u. S. Politics. Thank you so much, professor thomas gift. It isnt clear how this plays out in the polls. Do people support him and support the president and say they have a sympathy the that he has a sympathy vote and got out of it, as he says, or that he is reckless and has little empathy with the many that died . Thomas i think the answer to that is to be determined. You may think that there is a rally around, everybody coming and giving sympathy to the president , giving his best, the president using that opportunity to suggest that it is time for all americans to defeat this virus together. But at the same time his own record on covid19, the mismanagement, the missteps, the flatfooted response from the outset, i think it has complicated that narrative. The fact that he has been so insistent on belittling the virus, making light of it, making fun of those who wear masks not necessarily taking social distancing and other safety protocols seriously at his rallies, all of that makes it more complicated. I think we will see how the polls respond, but is just not there at the moment. Francine what are the American People asking themselves . Is there a general worry that if the president cannot even keep himself safe how he can keep the American People safe . Thomas that is certainly a legitimate question. Donald trump has had access to daily testing. All of the guards and safeguards that the president is typically afforded, and yet he wasnt able to keep himself immune. Here in the u. K. , whenever Boris Johnson got the virus, that was one of the key messages that he delivered to british citizens, and was one of the reasons why he said it is imperative for the country to take it seriously. That if the Prime Minister can get it, anybody can get it. Nobody is immune. We dont hear that message from donald trump so far. He is still tending to downplay the virus. Tom you have a huge, wonderful study of the behavior of elections. Kalin collins overnight at cnn reporting that the president was so upset about the filming of his entrance to the white house that he had it reshot with a white house photographer. Does image and theater sell in 2020 . I get that he has got a core worshipful audience. All politicians do by definition. But into the rush of 28 days, does image and a reshoot sell . Thomas i think that it does. I think that is modern politics today. In typical trump fashion, the president did not miss the opportunity for majestic political theater come in the video he sent out with his twitter feed. It is a homecoming, highly produced. Helicopter, athe military style salute, takes off his mask in dramatic fashion in front of the white house. Trump has said he is a wartime president battling the invisible enemy, and all the imagery is very reminiscent of a triumphant wartime leader coming home after a victory. It is clear at this point how trump is trying to frame this, both as a personal victory as well as a victory that represents the u. S. Turning a corner. On amazon prime, episode 2, season 3. What i want to know here is which marginal voter is he attracting . I get he has a core constituency of whatever the percentage is. If i give the wrong number, i will get a lot of hate mail. Wait, i get a lot of hate mail anyways. Dr. Gift, where is his marginal aspiration right now . Thomas i dont think he is aspiring to get moderate voters. He is the first modern president get het tried to has tried to motivate his base. The people coming out of to the polls who already support him. If you look at the data, the number of swing voters who are available right now is relatively small. Of thenly about 10 american population, and probably a good percent of those lean one direction or the other. That is very unlike 2016 where there were a lot more undecideds. I think at this point Donald Trumps strategy is to double down and mobilize his base. Francine does he win an election that way, by mobilizing his base . Thats remember, from what we know, the president is still infectious lets remember, from what we know, the president is still infectious. Thomas the poll numbers indicate that he is it is difficult for him to do that, just by doubling down with his base. Precovid that was possible because you would get the 30 to 40 of republicans would come out for him no matter what. He was hoping some swing voters would vote for him simply because the economy was doing well, unemployment numbers were at a record low for some demographics. Post covid, it is a totally different story and a lot of americans are asking themselves the question, am i better off today than four years ago . A lot of them are answering no, that is one reason why biden leads so considerably in the polls right now. Francine thank you so much for joining us. Thomas gift. Stay with bloomberg tomorrow night for full coverage of the price president ial debate. That starts at of the Vice President the bait. P. M. Starts at 8 30 it is less than 30 days before americans go to the polls. This is bloomberg. Francine Tom Bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Did you know there is a thing called markets and also finance, besides all the politics that we have been talking up and talking up . Prime minister johnson to come up as well. Francine i have a question, because i hear from Market Participants that what the market is pricing in is a no election outcome or at least a contestant a contested election. A week or two weeks after the election, we are likely not to know for real who is present, even if it is contested, right . Was december 12. That was four or five weeks that went on forever. But what is important here is. Hich states are contested the basic idea, from secondary knowledge, is florida is very organized, partly because that was a crucible of bushgore, but other states including pennsylvania may be less organized. It depends on where the contested states are in their apparatus state to state. One thing i think a lot of people internationally dont understand is how devolved the polling is right down to the local level. It is amazing how it is. Go ahead,n so tom. Tom we have a lot more to talk about on politics. Kevin cirilli is with us in a bit. He is a reflow banker in germany, christian sewing on the watsons 2018, trying to rejuvenate the challenges of Deutsche Bank. Thats listen. Christian we see an increasing domestic deal, not yet crossborder because things like the Capital Market union and the banking unit are progressing not in the way it should be before you come to these deals. And, yes, covid for sure accelerated certain developments, also the banking industry. Scale is an issue. We always said that banking scale is an issue, therefore we decided to integrate postbank two or three years ago and we are on our way. Consolidation will come in europe, but crossborder i would say it still needs some time. Matt every time i talk to a bank ceo, the banking unit is not ready yet at the European Union level. But when i talk to e. U. Leaders, they say ceos are free to do crossborder deals. Which shoe has to drop first . Are right. Both we are free to do crossborder deals, but if the rig otori headwind and restrictions are still there, for instance the kind of free flow of liquidity or capital is not there to a degree which really makes such a merger reasonable and constructive, then obviously something still needs to happen. So i think we need to wait for further developments, but i also know that regulators, governors well understand this issue. I am confident that we will see progress on the banking unit side, on the Capital Markets unit side. I know that the german finance minister is working hard on this, so that will come. At the time being, my view is that you will see more messed it more domestic urges than you see cross border mergers happening. Matt you have the most audacious Transformation Plan the bank has seen, Deutsche Bank has seen in decades. Does that mean you rule out for now any acquisitions . Christian the focus of Deutsche Bank is clearly defined transformation, and i am more than focused on this one. I would even say that we are laser focused on this one. The success over the last 15 months i think proves our point at this transformation was and is the right one for the bank, and therefore this has top priority, and therefore my full management attention. Matt what does that mean exactly . When is this transformation going to be at a point when you can finally start to consider some bigger deals . We saidn first of all that 2019 and are kind of the 2019 and 2020 are kind of the key years where we have to focus full on transformation. After the end of the Second Quarter we had 75 of our transformation costs already booked, and we made Good Progress in q3. So in this regard, 2019 and 2020 is the key of the transformation. Of course with still items to come in 2021, our key financial targets, we have announced for the end for the year 2022. It is a three to four year transformation. The first two years are key. We have been very successful to that, and hence this management focus needs to continue. Matt when you look beyond that and you hear reports in the financial boulevard press about dream mergers, do you think it is possible that Deutsche Bank could do a big deal, could be part of the big deal . Christian i think in general, consolidation must happen in europe. We need to be competitive also with u. S. Banks, also from a size point of view, looking at what they are investing into technology. You need a certain size for that, and therefore the general theme of consolidation is something which europe will see. For us it is important that we are not a jr. Partner to such thoughts, and that means that we first have to sustainably increase profitability. Interesting comment from the Deutsche Bank ceo comic speak speaking inclusively to matt miller. Saying i will go after a bank where we will be the dominant player. Can you really do it even if that is your intention . And clearly you still have to wait for the share price to recuperate if you are going to acquire someone else. Times book, price to sales is. 5, trading at roughly 75 discount to j. P. Morgan, which is considered west bank in the world and all that. Francine, that was an amazing interview by matt miller. Did he basically say they are looking at something . Francine they are looking at something if the share price is better, and their own bank gets stronger. We will talk a lot more about the banks with erik nielsen. He is unicredit chief economist. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom, lets talk about the election, brexit, banks. We have a lot to talk about with erik nielsen. I dont really know where to start, but it seems that i guess the biggest unknown apart from x to restrictions on the economy and the number of infections is what happens with the u. S. Election and how that translates into the u. S. Economy. I think thats exactly right, and it dominates everything we talk to clients about. It is not just the election, it is the uncertainty when we know what the outcome will be because this could be january before that happens come as far as i can tell. Tom the state of europe, you are a great optimist on all this. Can you give me optimism on europe with the disinflationary trends that i see . The good news is that disinflation increases the real wages. In a sense, as long as it does not become deflationary by a selffulfilling prophecy, low inflation in the shortterm, meaning within a couple of years or something, is not a really bad thing because it raises income. But it is a problem that i think we are starting to come in little more to grasp with over the last. Of time. Great reversal, this is a structural thing that is about to change over the next few years. But it is a big issue for sure. Francine where do you see the biggest scarring in the economy . We hear people saying that europe is becoming more like japan, but because we have the japanese example, is there anything we can do to avoid that . Agree. Dont really i think there are way too many differences. But to repeat another dose of some fiscal or protection of at the labor market with some of the programs put in place with a pandemic will expire, and there is plenty of evidence that some , that cutso spend would be very good, and then by early next year, it looks like we are going to get the big e. U. Next generation package starting to roll money out, which is also good, so i think we have quite a bit of money coming. Tom lets come back with a longer conversation with erik nielsen of unicredit. Really looking forward to this, on some of these dynamics, including the real yield differential in inflation dynamics across the atlantic. In our next hour, ambassador harris of morgan stanley. This is bloomberg. Good morning. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Francine saysa President Trump there is no reason to fear coronavirus that has killed more than 200,000 americans. The president has been released from the hospital where he was treated for the virus. I white house doctor says he may not be entirely out of the woods. The president will receive further care over the coming days. Joe biden says President Trump brought his infection upon himself. The president ial candidate told thatc news Panel Meeting anyone who says masks and social distancing doesnt matter is responsible for what happens to them. A foresident has mocked wearing masks. The cdc says coronavirus can spread beyond 6 feet. That could pose new challenges for schools and businesses that are trying to reopen safely. The cdc date update says it could be transmitted through particles in the air and can affect people distanced by what was considered safe. Sign every absentee ballot in south carolina. Democrats say that will make it harder for people to vote. The ruling will not affect absentee ballots that have already been cast. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. Tom thanks. Right now, the markets are moving. Yields are higher in the United States, 0. 76 . This 30 year bond comes up from the 140. That is about a 17 basis point move. All you need to know, if you are not familiar, that is china or miss. Enormous. A disinflationary victory in europe, how is that expressed in the euro and the dynamics across the atlantic . See aguess is we will higher euro. There are a number of reasons why the dollar is weakening. Longterm is a equilibrium force at play. , anddition, we have policy what we expect to be lots of uncertainty around the election. Forecast by late next year, lets see if we get there. Tom nielsen predicted a big 10 figure move. We will see. Does europe, how adjust to a stronger euro . I was surprised that the angst of the last move higher. Angstu surprised at the of manufacturers and political leaders over a strong euro . Definitely. Years, thest five eurodollar has been between summer around 105. We are in a range we have been used do. Estimations, the value has increased a little bit. 125. Ink it is about now more investment in europe has been the driver of this. It is not really drama, but it is inconvenient for europe, i would say. Francine francine what happens to inflation . If the stimulus commission has promised to get investment quickly, some of these green projects they have been talking about, is there a risk that inflation shoots up . I do not think so. German fear that you have the catch up bottle and you have to pump it and it all comes out, there is no real evidence of a sudden spike. Over some years, it is probably structurally coming back. For the next couple of years, the big story is relative price changes. Because of the pandemic and the int down command the change electoral contribution to growth , i think relative prices are not overall inflation. Youcine what is one thing will be watching for globally . Are we going to see Debt Forgiveness for emerging markets . Is there a narrative that could change everything . Get some debtwill forgiveness. It will take time. I do not think it is something that is going to drive markets tremendously. It is always difficult to say what is it we have not thought about yes. Things will be the pandemic and the u. S. Election. After that, u. S. Chinese relations. How is china linked to europe . For most americans, it is fiction. Describe how china and their dynamics are linked to europe. From the u. S. As the biggest export market for germans, but also some smaller countries. Inhas not been an explosion imports, but the fact that the chinese run six to nine months with thethe u. S. Pandemic. The u. S. Is tanking, so you have to have relative development. China has become increasingly important. This is where a second , if it were to happen scares the hell out of european businesses. You cant trade both ways, right . Global trade suffers. Hopefully, we dont get to that. China is really important in the european narrative. Thank you for joining us. Erik nielsen. Balext, we speak with tim from Queen Mary University of london and Deputy Director of brexit up next. This is bloomberg. Comment francine from london and new york. Tom, it has been 39 minutes on air and we have not spoken about brexit. That is about to change. Prime minister Boris Johnson seeking ways to rebuild the u. K. Economy that has been ravaged by coronavirus. This comes as Government Employment support falls away at the end of the month. He speaks later this morning at the conservative party conference. Joining us is tim bale, Queen Mary University of london professor politics. Thank you for joining us. Understand is that boris theson wants much like eu say this is a period of transition. Will buildcovid, he a stronger economy based on green principles. How does he get around brexit . How much damage if the u. K. Lease without an agreement . Leaves without an agreement, there will be shortterm disruptions. Queuesill certainly be at the border. We will see shortages in the shops of some goods. We will see price rises. I think consumers will notice. Ofgterm, it is more a case than any massive, immediate loss. But, it will be significant. There will be more friction in trade between the u. K. And the eu with tariffs. Mean what does it the chancellor and the Prime Minister will have to readjust this economy. Will it be tax cuts . Rules, whatthe wto kind of an economic adjustment will be see in the next two or three years to keep this economy competitive . That is bound up partly with the response to covid. There is increasing talk among conservancys conservatives that there needs to be a balance of the books. Sumac imply there may be tax rises. Some have talked about spending cuts. Alas, politically, will be difficult. Because the conservative general election win in 2019 predicated on the end of austerity. On the fuel duty, something the conservatives have prided themselves on suspending for a very long time, but probably which does need to go up. Especially pointing to this a greener future that seems to be the future of Boris Johnsons speech. Hague ofund william interest in the telegraph. Particularly today, talking about yorkshire, talking about his past. That the geography Prime Minister is speaking to to try to retain. How is he doing with his prospects . Ofthere has been quite a lot Opinion Research into this recently. Though we are prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, but i think the point the Prime Minister may just after the election that these people have their vote, not necessarily come over to conservatives permanently is important. It is going to be very important for the conservatives over the next two or three years to show tangible investment in those communities. Tom i thought lord hague was great on this come about how the values andled the vision of this conservative party. Has this pandemic derailed the Prime Minister . [laughter] it has derailed his own health, and certainly the views that some have of his confident competence. He does appear to be out of his depth. That applies also to people in the seats that conservatives want back at the end of 2019. He has got a real competence problem. Thatine i keep hearing the Prime Minister could no longer be Prime Minister in the next 12 months. Do you give credence to rumors out there that the conservative party would look to replace him . I think if we were coming nearer to an election and therefore more obvious the Opposition Labour Party began to overtake the conservatives in the opinion polls, and the ratings of the Opposition Leader were much higher than the ratings of the Prime Minister, we might well see that. Given there are three or four years to go before an election, there it it is unlikely there will be panicking. If i was a conservative mp looking at those poll findings him i would be worried. Issuedely, it is rarely it is actually whether someone can win an election that is the key to whether he or she ofn when the confidence those in parliament. Tom Queen Mary University of london professor of politics. This is going to be an interesting conversation, made more interesting by the actions of the president over the last 24 hours. We are going to get an update with joe grogan. This is going to be more than timely and informative. Stay with us. Futures 8 . This is bloomberg. I would ask them to do this, listen to the scientists. [applause] support math. Support a mask mandate. Require masks in every Federal Building and facility. Urge every governor in america to do the same. We know it saves lives. Rejected a mask mandate for Public Transportation on friday. Do not let it dominate. Do not let it take over your lives. Do not let that happen. We are the greatest country in the world. We are going back to work. We are going to be out front. Tom the two candidates 28 days away from the election. Right now with a simple introduction is Joseph Grogan out of william and mary. Former assistant to President Trump as director of domestic policy. He was given credit for reigniting the domestic policy within the administration. He is affiliated now with the usc schaefer center. Thrilled to have you. How are you doing . Were you exposed to the virus . Not from the white house, i have not. I have not been to the white house the past weeks. I am out and about, and you have to worry about it. Tom Caitlin Collins at cnn last night says the president is so worried about his electoral image that he reshot his entrance to the white house. This is guy that said maybe he is immune as well. Is theey question is, pandemic and the president s treatment of it a tangible issue within the selection, or are we being distracted by it . Obviously, it is tangible. There are other issues that people should focus on and it shouldnt dominate every single moment of our lives. I think the president s message about not being afraid is consistent with that. Yesterday, the white house issued an executive order improving Mental Health and Substance Abuse services. We continue to have massive Mental Health problems during the covid shutdowns. They are getting worse. That is a grid of that that is a great example of something that is not cutting through. There are issues that are not cutting through the media dolstrom of covid, which i not deny is exceedingly important, but we need to put it in context with all of the other economic issues. And Public Health issues. 200,000 americans have died because of covid19. Cant keepident himself safe, if he cannot keep his staff safe, how can he keep american citizens safe . The cdc had estimated that 1. 4 to 2 million americans would die. If you look at the curve bending down on mortalities for those over 70 which at the beginning of the epidemic was 35 40 , it is now in the low single digits. When you look at the mortality rate, which is terrible, 200,000 is a tragedy, but it does not 1. 4 million. The proximity of vaccines, we hope, every day new diagnostics come to the fore and we learn more. Contexteed to put it in how tricky this virus is. We have never seen anything like this. While joe biden is free to say listen to experts, i have been in meetings from the beginning, experts were flummoxed by this and continue to learn. Haveine but we now protocols in place that the cdc has said people should follow. Why did the white house and the president not follow that protocol . They followed a white house protocol that was developed with cdc. Have as no question we real world protocol failed. The cdc does not indicate everyone should get tested every time they go to work, the white house had a protocol for daily testing for those people. Not could be improved, question. They should be testing more widely. They should be using a different type of test. Concerns the advocates they were using was not good enough for that particular setting. They probably got overconfident in testing. To your point, they should have been a little more worried about the close proximity, mask wearing should have been more out there with the masks. Fact of the matter, they had a more stringent protocol in place than what cdc recommends. Go into a fundraiser when you know one of your assistance tested positive. Given the number of people that have been affected in the white house, will a president and the white house face people suing them . Is this going to be a legal matter . I dont know. People sue over everything. I have no idea. They may. I think the white house does need to explain the out there. Whennk it is troubling, the new people were positive and they had confirmatory tests why they continued forward. That does need to be explained. Behink that needs to explained by mark meadows about why they continued to move forward. I think that is something people are entitled to. I want to say this, joe biden can talk about National Mask mandates all he wants, but the United States as a country that is still using still resisting the metric system. Ofhave a long history resisting National Mandates. If you put a National Mandate in place, it is a great way to ticket it is a great way to get people to resist wearing masks. I wear masks when i go out. Caring extra masks in the in case i suddenly have to go somewhere. I am prone mask, but for national and tom is there anyone in the white house to advise this guy, or is he alone . He has advisors. He is not alone. You saw mark meadows lit them up at walter reed. He does have advisors, people giving him advice. There appears to be advising on National Economic policy. He talks to secretary mnuchin everyday on the way the stimulus package tom running out of time, what does he need to do in the next debate . What does President Trump need to do to turn this around . I think he needs to continue to lead with courage. Ofdoes not have the luxury running the country from the basement which what joe biden has doing. I think it is better to not interrupt by it and as much. The more joe biden talks, the more the American People will dislike him. We need to be reminded why we have rejected joe biden since 1988. 28 days until the election. Thank you so much. On the markets, pharaoh is medicated in london. Bonds move. Yields higher. Who do you want to talk to . Margaret patel. Decades of experience. We are looking forward to that. Features negative eight. Dow futures 19. 62 basis points, oh the humanity. This is bloomberg. Tom finally, the bond market moves. Yields are higher. Inflation is coming. Margaret patel, could there be a stimulus . Perceived double unemployment. 28 days until the election. Maybe i am immune. The president goes home. He loses the mask. Not immune are four assist four assistants, two academics and one first lady. Good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. Francine, extraordinary the news we have seen in the last 24 hours. Kevin cirilli is with us in a moment in utah for the Vice President ial debate. It is going to be fascinating. What does it take from london of all that we are witnessing in washington . Foreigners,lot of the whole world watches