Discussion this evening. Francine we are not brexit free, i have just been sparing you. We have actually been increasing the numbers of icu beds because people need them more. And brexit negotiations are ongoing. There is still the selfimposed deadline of october 15. ,om and i want to make clear the case dynamics in europe are extraordinary for the slopes of those curves are distressing. Its been an extraordinary thursday. Thank you to our team for an incredible news flow. It seems like we are doing the same thing today, we are waiting for washington to wake up and drive forward. Heres riddick group to with the first word news. With first word news. The Global Food Program was honored with the Nobel Peace Prize. They especially operate in conflict zones. To 100 millionse people in 88 countries last year. The white house is shifting its position in stimulus package, again. Steven mnuchin and told nancy pelosi that they want to in agreement on a largescale relief bill. Earlier this week the president paused negotiations on, branch of legislation. Meanwhile Federal Reserve officials are keeping up the pressure on washington to renew fiscal support for the economy. Robert kaplan tells bloomberg he sees a Slower Economy without more stimulus. Favorsc rosengren increasing the assets but thats not as good as another relief package. Louisiana is bracing for hurricane delta. The storm has picked up strength , now category three with wind up to 120 miles per hour. It is expected to slam into an area louisiana still recovering hurricane laura. Forcing Energy Countries companies to shut down Oil Production in the gulf of mexico. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am ritika bloomberg. Is you thoseet me give levels, they are very important. The vix in from 29 into 26. 01, i mentioned the yuan, this is a big deal. We are considering further remember the we are further considering further strength. Atncine and i am looking european stocks. They are actually gaining as a lot of European Companies are boosting guidance and the white house has signaled openness to largescale stimulus. If you look at the stocks, gaining from 0. 3 . The other thing i am looking at are these european bonds. Heree seeing some cases and in germany. Tom we are beginning our political coverage, we tried to do this to get different experienced voices. We are so fortunate that Wendy Benjamin is with us. She is with the Associated Press and the battle of the first days of the Trump Administration with her leadership with the ap in washington and has war wounds from 2016. Is this a wendy, redux of 2016 . Wendy it could be. Nobody wants to say that President Donald Trump is out, thats the lesson we have learned. When the polls show his opponents are up, dont count him out. Joe biden hasink some advantages that hillary. Linton did not have and all of the writing on the that if the votes were all counted today, joe biden might win. Florida . Important is your work with ap and now bloomberg, you are steeped in the statebystate politics. It overover and emphasized . Do the other states matter more . Wendy no, florida is not overemphasized. Its the ultimate battleground state. There is no doubt that biden is going to carry california and new york, huge Electoral College prizes. More votes than other states because of their population. Donald trump will probably win texas, thats the other big prize. Then theres florida. One day biden is up 11 points, the next day a poll of the same people chose donald trump up two points. Its impossible to tell what will happen in florida which could be the crux of the election. When we talk about florida, will we see more campaigning . Do we have any insight as to why it fluctuates so much . Joe biden was in florida earlier this week, and donald trump has his home there, at maralago. He seems to be doing more rallies. I think mayp voter not be as much of a factor. Anald trump is no longer unknown that one could take a chance on. And you might be shy to tell voters. If you support donald trump, you are out there and you are happy to support donald trump. I think there are a lot of former trump voters that no longer support him. Tom david westin had numerous conversations with speaker pelosi, but maybe shes not the one to watch. Who is Wendy Benjamin send theaminson watching in stimulus discussion . Who matters . Wendy nancy pelosi is definitely the one to watch. And unfortunately not unfortunately, and the way this administration works, donald trump is the one to watch. E has his hands on the lever if he says theyre off, theyre off. If he says thereon, thereon if he says they are on. They are on. The last few hours, the part the president indicating a lift towards the pelosi price tag. Providingamin send political coverage. This isnce of power, bloomberg. Good morning. Everyone morning surveillance. Good morning everyone, this is bloomberg surveillance. We heard from Wendy Benjaminson for an update just a moment ago. And its important to speak to mathew of Deutsche Bank. They have been brilliant on the presumed slow down. Most twowo distressing statistics. We go down 3. 7 per year and then up 3. 7 per year. Which i think for two years we are dead flat. Is that really what you see . Exactly. Theyre talking about the gdp trajectory for this year and next. Up 3. 7 andis year, only getting back to previrus and 2022. 2021 there are some vaccine hopes there. N their and on modest stimulus hopes. Tom and whats brilliant is the dispersion of the effect of a quarters flat, down and then up. And the distribution on the American Public is so different. Does that make it urgent to do stimulus because the havenots will not participate in a flat economy . Crisis, the have a covid shock, which had very targeted impacts on the u. S. Economy. In particular sectors, restaurants, retail, leisure and hospitality. Wes very different from what saw with the Global Financial crisis. Fiscal stimulus, but we have not seen that fiscal stimulus forthcoming with the talks breaking down despite what we have heard overnight from the white house. What is the size of stimulus that would make a meaningful impact on the u. S. Economy . Matthew there are a few things that need to be done. Theneed to reup unemployment insurance, at least part of it. So far everybody has been surprised at how resilient Consumer Spending has been. But when we had the original 600, five out of every six on employees was still receiving their income. And then 50 was still receiving their income. Going down to zero is meaningful. You also need targeted support for airlines, ppp loans for Small Businesses. Many that will need to take an additional loan if we dont see social distancing going away. Those adult to significant amounts. That have been talked about makes sense. But theres no way you are Getting Center republicans on board. Francine where do you worry about the most scarring in the economy . Atthew its interesting many of the metrics that we look at from the gsp and elsewhere are not showing the types of effects that we had seen. It had been noted that income expectations in the university of Michigan Survey have plunged and remained low for years. They did not plunge in response to this shock, but rebounded quickly. And we have to survey what is the possibility of being unemployed. It actually shot up and rebounded back down quickly. And the wealth effect, huge with the Global Financial crisis remained low for a protracted. But we dont have that here. Tom i want to get out front of Deutsche Bank clients. What is the topic you are studying the report on in your monday notes for Deutsche Bank . Focused onerybody is fiscal stimulus. The question that we get today, the market is very neutral. We dont think that this is , but also, yes, while it is true that we will get a fiscal package if biden wins and democrats win the senate, the negative outcome is the second wins an you biden get a republican senate. Thats the real risk. That afternoon like we dont get a big fiscal stimulus and ensuring that all of these macro trades are being based on. To talk aboutots and i am interested in Business Confidence after the transaction that we saw yesterday. Ibm did not get enough play. Its historic to see the breakup 109yearold International Business machines. Arian isen, mohamed al writing for bloomberg opinion. On these historic times. This is bloomberg. We want to help the airline industry. We have legislation in the cares will continueope for another six months or so. That expires the end of september. , butuld do this separately we cannot do it unless theres a big bill. It needs to be a part of the big bill or it could be separate from a timing standpoint. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi talking to david westin. And this is as markets are focusing on the possible stimulus package from the u. S. We also have a headline from spain, the spanish Prime Minister saying he will declare a state of emergency in madrid. This is one of the local tv stations carrying this. And this is significant, possibly one of the only ways that spain can put restrictions in place. We broke the headline yesterday that a judge ruled that the travel restrictions in and out tocities might be necessary fight the spread of coronavirus but under the current framework they were violating fundamental rights. Dealing with to get around it was for the spanish Prime Minister to evoke a state of emergency and then he can do what he wants in terms of lockdown. A really important story. I want to stop the program now to go into this. And it hugely political really shows the polarity of the socialist leadership versus the conservative leadership of madrid, do i have that right . Francine yes. And this goes to what we thought was a pretty surprising court case yesterday with that judge going against the government, saying they cannot really impose a partial locked in the spanish capital and suburbs. Regional officials had appealed the application of these stricter measures and the judge said you are right, they cannot go into tougher measures unless its an emergency declaration. Will be interesting and we will follow this story through friday afternoon. Its really across all of europe with france and spain leading the way with difficult pandemic stories. Francine and we were talking to matthew liz eddie to matthew about the fiscal stimulus in the u. S. He mentioned the fed. But overall matthew, how chiefult is it for the economist, u. S. Or world, to look at what the economy we will have an months given these restrictions that pop up in countries where they had a good handle. Its happened in germany and it could happen in a number of u. S. States as well. Matthew you are absolutely right. There was a theme emerging a few months ago where european was outperforming economically in the second half of the year, based on the view that europe had handled the virus better and it was raging in the u. S. We are seeing some difficulties containing the virus in many places across different approaches. Certainly in the u. S. We have seen the highest growth rate since may. And if you look at the midwest, a record growth rate. It is still with us, still hampering economic activity. Particularly for the services sector. On the flipside, we are getting generally better news on the belief in theand vaccine at least with it being distributed by next year which should help. But this is one of the things that will continue to hamper the economy. We saw huge transactions with history made, Corporate Officers are working strategically. Whats the underlying confidence of the Business Community, not to beleaguered Small Business community but the more prosperous continuing forward Business Community now . If we get a Deutsche Bank flatness for eight quarters, do they maintain a Business Confidence to do transactions . Its been a very unique recession and recovery in the sense that capex, equipment spending is actually fully normalized. We has really remained are spending this on the services sector, which is your typical thing which is very resilient. I think theres a divergence between the Small Businesses and medium and larger businesses purely driven by that. And larger businesses are looking at asia and china and other economies that are rebounding better and global trade which is rebounding better. This is a greater sense of optimism. Larger businesses also have more ilient plans to resolve respond to shocks and plan for the future. So there is a dichotomy where you have Small Businesses underperforming. Watching thank you. We are watching. Thank you. I cannot emphasize the shock of their paragraph of 3. 5 then positive 3. 5 stretching over two years. Thats an important statistic. Futures are up 15, dow futures at 126. In the 3 00 hour, scott joins. This is bloomberg. Ritika the Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to the Global Food Program. The United Nations agency was honored for its efforts to combat hunger and Food Insecurity around the globe. The onagain offagain talks for largescale stimulus are back on again. Nancy pelosin told that President Trump now wants a comprehensive relief package. Earlier this week the president ended talks and said this would not resume until after the election. President trump says he feels good and is hoping to hold a Campaign Rally in florida on saturday. The white house doctor has given the goahead for Public Engagement starting this weekend. It was a week ago today that the president was hospitalized with coronavirus. And the Justice Department is suing yale university, claiming that its illegally discriminating against white and Asian American africans, claiming they flame they favor black and hispanic applicants. Responded that it would not abandon its race conscious process. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I amro to cooped up i am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom any number of transactions yesterday, 7 billion, no big deal, but its a heritage of boston mutual fund, investing going back to 1925, eaton vance, a roll of the many different mutual fund companies, and they finally jettisoned yesterday. To dougke a listen gorman. This has been a 10 year strategy to take an extraordinary Investment Bank and trading business, clean that up in terms of the risk management, take away the prop trading, use that capital more effectively, its doing unbelievably well. Up thegive it to build Wealth Management business. And then e trade gave us a digital platform and now we are doing this on the Asset Management tried management side. And now excitingly we are doing this with eaton vance. We think for 2030 you will find a stable and faster growing feebased institution, wellcapitalized, strong liquidity. The strategy,ain are you trying to be all things to everybody now that you have added this large brokerage and asset manager . James not at all. We have 70 deals since i have been co. Oilold oil storage and business. Mortgage servicing businesses, european private banks, a u. K. , and spain. We have been reshaping the portfolio. This is about managing capital for individual goals and institutions around the world. Being in the asset and Wealth Management space, this is all consistent. His is part of that process so frankly i think we are a more focused company. This has been an expensive deal. But at the end of the day, its what the deal will deliver in the future. It comes down to profit and margin. How do you explain the economics to them in the long term. James i have met a lot of people who want to purchase Great Companies cheaply and they end up not buying anything. Hopefully you dont buy a lot of underperforming companies with a lot of money. Eaton vance has been around for 90 years. Talent, worldclass, a perfectly complementary business. Very little dislocation. Parametrics,ome there are some very traditional Asset Management. This was a nobrainer. But thatsl dollar, what you have to do if you want to purchase highquality businesses. They came to us. They wanted to be part of the Morgan Stanley business. Our cultures aligned. It used up about 100 basis with our core regulatory capital ratio. But it created about 100 basis points this year. So we are back to neutral. This will be terrific over the long run. Im not worried about financials. Manager makessset this above 1. 2 trillion at this point. It is still a fraction of blackrock and vanguard and jp morgan. How do you compete . James they are completely different businesses. Blackrock are largely index and Exchange Rated businesses. We are not trying to be the biggest. You dont do strategy t