1000 miles apart. Donald trump and joe biden fight for air in competing town halls. Americans had to the polls and 18 days. Boris johnson said to decide whether to ditch brexit trade talks. And daimler gets in gear. The carmaker reports a 3 billion 3 billion euro profit as cost cuts filter through. Just under an hour away from the start of cash trading. Car sales european out. They gained 1. 1 for the first nine months. Sales, upropean car for the first three quarters of the year. 1. 1 . Lets take a look at what is going on. European car registration, clearly 20 20 has been a tough year. One a look at what is going we have ftseutures filler cheers futures up 0. 8 . Tax futures gaining about 0. 5 . Futures the picture is more mixed. Showing a lot less sized. Futures are. Ractionally down futures flat. We have been more negative. Asian equity markets look seen looking mixed. Are we in a consolidation phase for setting ourselves up for some selling . You have the election coming. That is a line in the sand many are looking to. Big questions over stimulus. President trump talking about doing something bigger than 1. 8 billion but time is running out, it feels that way. Big questions about the virus and measures that could be seen taken. Could we see more curfews . Is that is going to be the policy of choice . The second wave . European futures, a little to the upside. U. S. Futures, flat. Breaking news in london. A sector badly hurt by the coronavirus and the lockdown measures brought in to tackle it. That is an Ongoing Company because of the system we have. Iers,me of those tears t you see pressure in the hospitality industry. The number looks to be a bit like the estimate. Word get a bloomberg first news update. President trump and joe biden eventseling town hall 1000 miles apart. The president clashed with the moderator. On policy focused answers. It is brexit decision day for Boris Johnson. He will choose whether or not to abandon trade talks with the European Union. The blocks leaders are refusing to give him the clear signal he wants. Include aled to commitment to compromise on the eu side. President trump is ready to lobby the Republican Party a bigger stimulus deal. Steven mnuchin and told nancy pelosi the president will lean on the gop if the two sides can come to an agreement. The president once a bigger plan than the 1. 8 between dollars in offer. Mitch mcconnell said that is too much. President trump says the u. S. Will strike much harder if the e. U. Goes ahead with billions of dollars of tariff on american products. Brussels won the European Union will likely hold its fire until after the election. Day,l news, 24 hours a powered by more than 2700 list and analysts. This is bloomberg. Asian stocks are mixed. Equity futures pointing to the green. Europe is counting down amid a new surge of infections. A curfew in paris. Lets talk about what the italians might do. Lets get into a conversation with kristine aquino. Interesting to ask the question of the day. See what kind of responses you have been having. We use the word lockdown. It means so many Different Things to so many different people in different geographies. Restrictions on movement, how will they affect european stocks . , the outlook for hubs is even more unpredictable. One can imagine that is true. What kind of responses are you linkng in terms of the between restrictions and stocks. It is not a positive picture, that is for sure. Yesterday was a great example of announcement any on new curbs and restrictions, could really do a number on markets. The first day in a alle from what i recall market bond stocks, fx markets even were moving in tandem and this risk off move. It did coincide with the timing of the announcement of london curbs. Theoes to show unpredictability of the response to the virus and how that situation is constantly changing is probably the primary driver of uncertainty and markets. Week focusedf this on the politics side of things with the brexit deadline, today, we finish it talking about these restrictions and how they are impacting markets. The u. K. Ve been in long enough to say in inverted commas when you mean quotes. Our markets expecting this to be done . Are they sticking it to drag on . Wax i think there is enough experience in markets that they are willing to roll with the punches. Signs of a bit of brexit fatigue. Aere markets were pricing catastrophic no deal scenario. It is probably to do with the fact that traders looking at this are seasoned when it comes to tracking the changing, fluid situation. Therefore refraining from making any big bets. That is kind of what we are seeing. A lot of the base case on the street is some kind of a deal. Whether it is a skinny trade deal or something that will keep things going. I think that is still the base case in terms of the headlines in between get into that process. There are investors and traders getting increasingly weary of trading it headline to headline and waiting for this turning point. It could be in the next couple of weeks. It is interesting to see the way the market is thinking of shifting it. Dealred to 2016, when a could have been much bigger. You about the job sector in the u. S. We see an example of a market that has been allowed to react, i jobs market that has been allowed to react more fully to the coronavirus. We thought maybe we had seen the first. Jobless claims unexpectedly increased. What do you see in the u. S. Jobs market . It is kind of a worrying trend considering what is going on in the bigger economic backdrop. We see the virus not really relenting. Risks of insolvency throughout the u. S. That will have great implications for employment down the road. We have the stimulus talks as well. Ofre is not much prospect that getting through until after the elections. All this combination really does just make for great job insecurity. That adds to the first wave of joblessness we have already seen. The earlier wave, i should say. There is this kind of second from eventual bankruptcies that would kind of feed that joblessness cycle. It is not looking great on that front either in the u. S. The stimulus getting back through would help a lot. That could be delayed until at the very least, earliest, after the elections. Whatll be a question of shape is that going to take depending on the composition of government. Thank you so much for joining us. Kristine aquino. Check out her work and the work 1000eam by typing miles apart. President trump and joe biden clash from afar and dueling town halls. We bring you the details next. This is bloomberg. Think the best outcome is a quick outcome from for the elections. The markets do not like uncertainty. The blue wave is out there. It is partially priced into the market. It is a function of regardless of the outcome, the expectation is continued fiscal support. It is not a question of if, it is when and how big. That was the Morgan Stanley victory isa biden partially priced in. Donald trump and joe biden took part in town halls last night. They clashed at distance including on issues including wearing a face mask. I am good with masks. I am ok with masks. The other day, they came out with a statement 85 of people who wear masks catch it. I know that study that is what i heard and what i saw. It is estimated by major every major study, if we wore 100,000e could save lives and avoid lockdowns. You dont have to lockdown if you are wearing the mask. Overnight commentary on the u. S. Election. We are joined by the managing director. It is difficult to call elections and the link between elections and the stock market. At 2016. To look what is your expectation here . Do you think like Morgan Stanley was suggesting the blue wave is partially priced in . Great to speak to you again. I think your reference to 2016 is relevant. The last election, 2000 16, markets could not make up their minds. Trump victory announcement, futures were down 5 . It was a dramatic time. The next day, the index closed up 1 . You that as a reference, would argue it is much more confusing. The likelihood of a contested election is very much there. More importantly, it is very unclear path how the markets should read what the outcome will be. Marketsweeks ago,hought a Trump Victory antiregulation, etc. That rhetoric is reversed. Becomee suite has synonymous with being good for stock markets. Now suggestsright market is lacking convection. Because the Economic Growth fragile, has become so markets are whip selling around and what is arguably the most of volatile election time and living memory. It feels as if we are watching a prime time soap opera. Over the last two weeks has left impasse. N ultimately, it is such a shame to see real Economic Needs being tangled up into political strategy making. That makes Market Participants very anxious. Are almost there. November 3 is not that far away. Basicallys are pricing in a blue sweep. They expect at the very least, trillionosis 2. 2 stimulus package to come shortly thereafter. Concernut the weeks old we could have a contested election result . Or President Trump would refuse to leave the white house if he does indeed lose the election . Are Market Participants hedging against that, do you think . Back to what the state of the markets is today. What i find fascinating, it feels markets want to go up. Equity markets are looking for an excuse. Lets rewind back to the last two weeks. It started getting messy when , not made a statement willing to negotiate until after the election. The day after, he did a uturn. Cry forupport powells action. Of marketo four days fulltilt he levels are back in a more normalized 20s range. Happens ifnt, what there is a contested election . What then . What are markets going to do about it . The old rule is markets do not like uncertainty. Take that factor and put adjacent to that what is the latest situation with the economic recovery, is the latter that will define how markets will handle the volatility around the contested election. On one hand, you would argue the recovery has been absolutely remarkable. Unemployment going from north of 10 to south of 8 . It took us two months to achieve that. We have 50 of jobs lost. We probably already enjoyed the lowest hanging fruit it unemployment is becoming more permanent. We are going to have to watch this data closely as the market has done with the latest jobless claims report which did not look encouraging and take it from there. Great to get some time with you. We are going to keep you around a bit longer. Sign up from london to paris to berlin. Downs creeping onto the agenda and europe. How much Political Capital do leaders have left . This is bloomberg. Welcome back to bloomberg markets. Minutes from the start of cash equity trading. European futures pointing higher. Dax futures falling 0. 2 . Fight to losing its keep economies stricter virus measures are creeping back into the political agenda. New cases have hit yet another record high. The Health Minister said tracing capacity is reaching its limit. Icu capacity,he hospital capacities, it is all manageable. Localoblem is day by day, authorities are not able to trace. You lose track. The numbers are going high exponentially. Our guest is still with us. What do you think we are facing here . Pricing andfar from reversion back to lockdowns . Europe is a tricky one. Is changing rather rapidly. Still an account where it was respected as having one of the better policy responses regarding covid. Asset allocations have taken another serious look covid cases reaching new peaks, governments talking about renewed lockdown, it is injecting an enormous amount of fear in the markets. Already the biggest laggard in asset allocation. Most importantly, it is really hampering and weighing down on the animal spirit, the animal spirits of europeans which are ux of economic recovery. To the that still add Investment Case . Maybe we do more Online Shopping . Does that pay to the Investment Case for businesses that are out of lockdown . Also a factor. What you saw already a month ago, the approach to some of these tech stocks which were seen as covid winners becoming less straightforward. If you are going against the back drop of lower Economic Growth, especially in the more docretionary consumer area, consumers feel comfortable running these expenditure lines . The issue is today as i mentioned, speaking about animal speaking,conomically we are injecting fear into the wrong cohort of people. It is the Baby Boomers Group that control 17 of global disposable income. Up against a break but thank you very much for joining us. For your time. H this is bloomberg. Welcome back to the european open. 30 and its until the start of the equity trading day. Start ofutes until the the equity trading day. To negative. Flat lets get a first word update. Local leaders in the u. S. U. K. Are in revolt after the regional lockdown. Politicians refusing to move to the highest level of restrictions unless the government provides more government support. Scientists are pushing for an Emergency National lockdown. The latest study by the who has antiviral has no effect on patient survival. It makers of remdesivir says is not clear any conclusions can be drawn. Treasury security remit nuisance says the president will lean on the gop if the two sides can come to an agreement. The president wants a bigger rescue plan than the one point trillion dollar 1. 8 in dollar one. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, this is bloomberg. Anna and matt. Thank you very much. Laura wright with your first word news. Private Credit Sector has expanded rapidly since the financial crisis. As banks retreat from the riskier corners of the market. The pandemic is raising new fears direct lending has reached the limits of its moneymaking potential. Joining us now is dani burger for an interview with one of europes private largest private funds. I am thrilled to say joining overseesin demar who 10 billion. First off, thank you so much for joining us. This is possibly the first crisis we have seen where a large sum of debt is not with the big lenders, it is with private credit funds such as yours. What does that mean for the health of the Financial System . One of the things i can say right away is think god for the regulators, coming out of the Global Financial crisis. Pushing a lot of the lending into a better shock absorber for the system. That is private credit funds like ourselves. We have seen a lot of growth as banks have retreated from the lending space. Really, what has occurred, as it relates to leverage lending, people like ourselves have stepped into the shoes of the banks and become basically the relationship lenders for private equity. If you have stepped in here, are you more accommodative to struggling firms . One of the concerns with bank loans is if they are pulling back from the market, you eventually get a spiral of point back which turns into a credit crunch. The key for us and all lenders is credit selection. We focus on three industries, health care, software, and business services. Have emerged from the crisis very strong. We have very few problems across the portfolio. A lot of that is due to the alignment of interest private debt firms have with investors. It makes us better credit selectors. It allows us to be more front footed in the crisis. Unlike banks who are under increased pressure today with these further lockdowns just heaping more pressure on banks which are continuing to exit the market, private credit firms like ourselves, if you have a clean portfolio, you can be front footed in the crisis. If you are coming out a winner, who is going to be the losers in the crisis . Isi think the real issue credit selection. I think what you are going to see is growing differentiation among managers. We heard a lot about buying the market, passive index tracking and all of that. When you think about what has happened to credit markets, what is critical is choosing your assets carefully. Be very diligent lending. I think for managers who have done that and carefully built portfolios, they are going to be beneficiaries with a lot of capital to invest. Allowing them to be front footed helping the economy. For managers who have been in prudent and deployed a lot of capital in an arms race, there are going to be some issues. Work for a ton of companies. You are perhaps in a better position to speak about this. To help enough done struggling businesses in terms of stimulus . I think we have reached the limit of what monetary stimulus can do at this point. Interest rates are low. We are seeing a lot of risk taking and liquid markets. The ecb and the fed have done what they can do. The next phase has to be more targeted efforts to help business. I dont take enough is being done. Europe has done a pretty good job. The u. K. And the u. S. Can do a better job of targeting capital to businesses that need it. What we are seeing is a bifurcation of business is doing well through this. Things like hospitality, restaurants. Small Service Businesses that need capital. That fiscalont get support, what is this scenario that you think will play out . More insolvencies in the hospitality sectors. A lot of these businesses are in dire straits. It is difficult to find an economic solution where there is not going to be necessarily a business left at the end of the day. Does the real concern. If you can look forward through the crisis and know if a company can just hang in there it is going to be fine, i think we can finance those businesses. The bigger concern is businesses where it is not clear even if they can hold on they are going to be in a position to be competitive going forward. I think that is the big challenge. Neartermso much the this location. It is the structural changes that come out of this. Businesses even be required to exist coming out of the crisis . You seem pretty confident you can keep the businesses supplied with the money. Do investors feel the same way . Data shows this is the First Quarter in 19 years where no new european debt funds have closed. Whats going on there . This is the normal impact when investors, over the course of the summer were trying to figure out what was happening, getting their own houses in order. What we have seen is a tremendous resurgence of activity coming out