Today sonal desai, Franklin Templeton cio. There is a narrative out there that regardless of what happens in two weeks time, things will be ok, someone will deliver a fiscal package. How misplaced is that comfort that things will be ok . Sonal i think you have to break this up. First of all, the idea that within two weeks we will certainly know one way or the other. We dont know that for a fact. Over the last several months, the market has become increasingly comfortable with the idea that mailin voting will happen, we will have a blue suite, and it will be clear shortly after the election. And the election will not end up in court. It is a little risky to discount that completely. That is the first thing that could create a certain amount of nervousness in markets. The second issue is that fiscal package. Right now, we have come full circle of markets being concerned about a blue sweep to actually welcoming one because they are eyeing an eye watering we large fiscal package into next year. If we were to have the blue sweep and the package comes through, that is market supported. But again, it comes with risks which the market is not looking at right now. See some of that in implied volatility. Are you seeing any of that in the credit market . What do you make of this like divergence . Sonal credit probably right now because it has not started displaying that fragility, if you will. Just two weeks, and equity markets are finally beginning to show that vulnerability. But going forward, if we had a disputed election, we could see yields go back up to maybe 100 basis points. On the other hand, i think there are bigger issues at play as well. The markets first kneejerk reaction to a major fiscal package will be positive. Markets are reacting negatively today to signs that the package is not on the way. 3. 5 trillionf a package coming through with a , that is one impact. The other impact is what will happen with regulations. There has not been sufficient focus so far, and that will impact certain sectors and credit. I dont think that is fully being priced in right now. Jonathan credit spreads have become really tight again. As you have pointed out, we have this indiscriminate rally. What are the areas of credit that you are concerned about . Sonal it is more than a broadbrush of credit. It is really more about the line buying of everything out there. The opportunities, especially over the course of 2021, are definitely going to come in actively selecting specific names. Everything will not be equally hurt or blessed in the event of a sweep, for example. If we have status quo, we know how to deal with that. But if we have a sweep, in that environment, there are sectors that we can look at. Energy, areas in health care, finance, potentially technology, where the market will have to sift through a lot of uncertainty. If you add these together, its a large part of the economy. Therefore, if we look through the course of next year, we need to focus very much on that active selection. I think there are other risks, but either way, which come from a macro level. Again, im not sure the market is fully positioned for. We saw a little bit in terms of treasuries beginning to react to the other side of that potential packagellion dollar at the same time that the fed is very easy, and at a time when the economy is in the process of recovering. From here on out, the recovery will be slower. Strongest sharpest, collapse, and we are likely to have had over q3, one of the strongest recoveries. It will still leave us at the end of the year, probably down 4 on gdp, but we continue to see a recovery. If we see the scale of this report that we saw coming into covid with continued easy Monetary Policy in an economy that is substantially better positioned than we were when covid first hit us, that will have an impact. Jonathan reading between the lines, it sounds like you expect yields on the long into rise, and maybe more than people expect. Sonal thats reasonable, but the question is when. Everyone is putting their faith in the fact that the fed will not raise rates. I think the fed has given itself in omers flex ability to act as it sees. That said, i dont see rates going up next year. But then if you see a recovery supported by all of this extraordinary fiscal and Monetary Policy, there is definitely the potential for inflation to surprise a little bit on the upside. In some ways i sound like a dinosaur when i talk about inflation because it is really youe, but having said that, dont need a lot of inflation right now to have long and yields to rise a little bit. It seems to be in honest consensus that you will not see inflation rise above 2 in the indefinite future. That is not so far away. We are at 1. 7 right now. It is not outside around the possibility that inflation surprises on the upside, and the fed perhaps moves faster than currently is anticipated. Know, 20 24,dont 2025. Jonathan you sound a little bit out of consensus here, that you dont fully buy in to the feds reaction function, that they will sit this out over the next couple of years. Is that a Fair Assessment . Sonal i think the fed currently plans on sitting it out. But i believe that if the facts change, the fed will change. We are looking at the dot plots, taking comfort in the fact that there are no rate rises in the next three years. However, the fed has given itself enormous amount of flexibility. We dont know the look back period, but there are lots of degrees of flexibility for the out, andrtainly hold then allow the market to start pricing in some move slightly faster than the market is currently anticipating, based on plots. Of course, this depends on economic outcomes. If we see more lockdowns with social distancing through the whole of next year, we are looking at a completely different scenario. The fed is on hold, i could see high yields we could see credit spreads blow out. Maybe not going all the way up to the thousands because the fed would step in, but we could go through 2021, we saw a reimposition of very Strong Social distancing and lockdowns instead of a dominion ration. The market is not position for uncertainty. Jonathan one final question. This is a huge range of outcomes that you have walked us through both in credit and treasuries. What is your conviction trade right now . Isal our conviction trade essentially, as is everybody, to try and keep a liquid pool of assets that we can deploy. Vonnie welcome to bloomberg im vonnie quinn in new york. Over the next hour, youll be hearing from bill weld. He will discuss voters and the election. Frank knapp of the South Carolina smallbusiness chamber of commerce explained the challenge of Small Businesses as stimulus stalls in d. C. And we are talking to Mike Novogratz about cryptocurrency. Intel has been dominating the news cycle in markets, down about 10 in the session after a quarter that investors did not like. Elsewhere, indices lower as we approach the close. The dow is down more than half a percent. The s p is down. 1 . The dollar index also weaker, staying below that 93 mark. Moving to the economy, the pandemic has led many to lose their jobs, but the youngest workers are being hit even harder. Joining us to explain that is our labor market reporter. Explain what the Unemployment Rate is for the youngest portion of the Data Collected compared to the overall Unemployment Rate. Thanks for having me. The cohort of americans aged 20 adults,oure youngest they are seeing an Unemployment Rate of 12. 5 right now which compares to a much lower rate in the 7 for the population over all. At the height of the recession that we are seeing right now, april, when we saw all of those job losses due to lockdowns, there rate was 26 , 10 higher than for other age cohorts. To 34, 35 to 44 this is a lot higher than for the rest of the labor market. Vonnie it is particularly disheartening because at the beginning of the year, it looked like it would be a super hot job market to come into. Now they are forced to make maybe make other plans. What are they doing . Exactly. It is unfortunate. For seniors, the ones that we spoke to for our story, they were very much applying, looking forward to having a lot of opportunities, and that has dramatically changed. We have heard people are applying over and over again to jobs and either not hearing anything, or hearing that the job posting that they applied to actually doesnt exist because there are hiring freezes, or companies are some of the companies that are hiring may be bringing back workers that they laid off a few months ago. There are a lot of issues for this cohort. Also, they will be your least experienced workers. Coming right out of college or high school, and they just dont have the experience of someone who is a bit older. Vonnie what does it mean for wages in the sense that now they are competing with the next cohort of graduates . Catarina we see this with pretty much every recession. People that graduate from high school or college during recessions, you see a longterm impact on their wages. If employers are going to bring on those workers, they can offer lower wages. Is so muchre competition for these jobs, you have pressure on the downside for wages. For most of their lives, certainly in the beginning parts of their careers, probably looking at lower wages. Vonnie a very important story that you are bringing light to it along with your colleagues. Is catarina saraiva. Ofll ahead, record numbers early voting at the polls. Former Massachusetts Governor and now joe biden supporter bill weld joins us. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn. Record numbers in most states. Werexas, some ballot sites limited, and in georgia, some lines were five hours long presented some challengings. Weld,xt group is bill among a group of republican supporting joe biden. Thanks for joining. Talk to us about anything that is concerning you right now regarding voting currently, mail in and early voting. Now, iveorically and been concerned about voter suppression, intimidation. Some bad cases in the south and west under the current regime of voter intimidation, trying to keep the boat down. Vote down. The Voter Protection program is a wellthoughtout bipartisan group, and we have everyone from the board of election to secretaries of state, attorney generals to governors. You can cover all the bases that way. Most of the enforcement is attorney general or secretary of state. Tone andnor can set a indicate, for example, we dont want the federal government to abandon the old tradition of no interference in elections. We dont need secret federal police making noise in our states right around election time. There are several republican governors who are quite active. Christie whitman of new jersey. Tom ridge of pennsylvania. Jennifer granholm of michigan, a superstar democrat. We enjoy it. Vonnie you have been making headlines, you have been doing great work. There will beate a minor number of issues to deal with in terms of this election alone . It seems like things are working pretty smoothly so far. Bill i would agree. Usually there is not much to do in terms of voter fraud or problems with ballots. It is just the administration in washington has been making all sorts of noise about how mailin ballots are suspect, mailin fraud, and ripe for that has never been the case historically. I would agree with you, in the event, probably very little, but the whole thing is an effort to persuade people not to vote by mail because that would increase the turnout, which the president calculates is good for biden, but you never know. Intimidate them from voting at all, or as the president has suggested, to vote twice, which of course is illegal. Vonnie you had a career in the justice department. If joe biden is elected, would you imagine that the current president would be prosecuted by any subsequent ag . I looked into the constitutional questions here, and i worked on both the Richard Nixon impeachment and the clinton impeachment as a defense. Xpert i am familiar with the fact that the constitution says, a president after leaving office shall be liable to indictment, prosecution, and punishment. So it could be. It could be there are a lot of prosecutors in new york state for example, some federal, some for state offenses, who may have an interest in trying to settle things with the former president. It could happen. I know joe biden to be a very measured and careful guy, so it wouldnt happen just because joe is a democrat and President Trump is a republican. It would have to be something real. It could happen. Legally, no problem. Vonnie what happens to those who identify as republican and supporters of President Trump . You have been libertarian, but if joe biden is voted in, that would please you, but a large portion of the gop would not love the outcome. How does the gop coalesce . Bill i think i may have to be some changes made, particularly if there is anything like a blue wave in the senate. If the democrats take the senate as well as the presidency, there may have to be some reckoning. Loved always been one who the Republican Party that i grew 1970s,in the 1960s, 1980s, and mostly of the 1990s. The jeffersonian liberal. Fiscally conservative and socially liberal. That tradition is pretty strong in the northeast. Not so much elsewhere in the country, but its time could come again. It could be the former Republican Party could be joined by moderate libertarians, moderate environmentalists. The Environmental Movement was originally republican. Moderate democrats. I know plenty of democrats that have more in common with me politically than most of the leading republicans in the country today. There could even be a new second or third party, may be called the unity party. At this point, that is just pipe smoking. It depends on the result. There could be a lot of pressure to have changes made. After the 2012 election, when i was active with mitt romney, the party appointed a group of five to do a retrospective, and they came up with five recommendations, all of which proved to be the opposite of what trump ran on, and he won the nomination and presidency. These retrospectives do not always indicate the future. Vonnie thank you for joining. We will check in again postelection and see where we stand. Bill weld, former governor of massachusetts. Coming up, we are talking stimulus and Small Businesses. Im dough hirsch. You may already know that goodrx can help you save up to 80 on your prescriptions. Unfortunately, Many Americans cant get to a doctor right now. The good news is that for many Health Issues you can see a doctor online. Its easy. Just go to goodrx. Com and with a few clicks youll be treated by a licensed medical professional all from the comfort of your own home. Visits are confidential and affordable. Need a prescription . Your doctor can send it to your pharmacy or have it mailed to you. Get the healthcare you deserve at goodrx. Com. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloomberg first word news. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and are pointing fingers at each other today for the standstill in stimulus talks. Secretary mnuchin told reporters today that it is the speakers refusal to budge on certain issues that is holding up the negotiations. Compromises. Fered the speaker is still stuck it dug in. If she wants to compromise, there will be a deal. We have made lots of progress in lots of areas but there are still significant differences we are working on. Mark Speaker Pelosi says the burden is on President Trump push forward on stimulus talks and get reluctant republicans to go along with any eventual deal reached with the white house on a nearly 2 trillion aid package. The president says he will cast his ballot in person on saturday. Mr. Trump voted by mail in floridas primary this year after claiming there was rampant fraud in the book by mail process. His campaign then began running ads encouraging his supporters to vote by mail. Early in person voting in florida began on monday. When Puerto Ricans go to the pole november 3 to elect their governor, theyll be asked again if they want to be the 51st star on the american flag. This is the sixth time the referendum has been on the ballot. Defenders of statehood say it is the only way to give them equal footing in programs. Critics say it would mean higher taxes and the end of the islands unique culture. The u. S. Is urging americans in turkey to be careful. Officials at the embassy say there have been credible reports of terrorist attacks and kidnappings in response to the u. S. Temporarily suspending all citizens and Visa Services in turkey. Americans currently in the country are being urged to exercise heightened caution in a place where foreigners may gather, including Office Buildings or shopping malls. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Amanda live from toronto, im amanda lang. Vonnie im vonnie quinn in new york. We are joined by our bloomberg and Bnn Bloomberg audiences. Here are the top stories we are following from around the world. Small businesses struggling to stay afloat. As washington remains at a stimulus standstill, we hear about the pressures facing Small Business with the president of the South CarolinaSmall Business chamber of commerce. Bidens pledge to eventually replace fossil fuels with Renewable Energies mean for swing voters . And we discuss cryptocurrency with Mike Novogratz. Amanda we are keeping our eyes on the markets but it is a similar story to what we have seen. Off the lows of the