Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240712 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia July 12, 2024

To the upside. Other news coming through about approvals for future houses as well. The asx up 119 points. Thats move along and look at other Asset Classes. Crude trading yesterday with a 33 handle, hasnt had a huge rally since then. Part of that is down to russia and opec looking like they will not be hiking reduction in january. That news helping to propel oil prices up to over 97 in the last six hours or so. ,old remaining where it was just shy of the 1900 level. Thats ahead of the u. S. Election. The u. S. Dollar index marginally down, the Rate Decision coming expecting a 0. 15 cut in the base rate and we do have in anticipation of all that move slightly higher than that, and thats down to a commodity related currency and the crude price helping that along. Lets head over to new york and join karina mitchell. We start with the latest headlines on the pandemic. Starling fell to its weakest in the month, with an economy already reeling from similar measures earlier this year. France reports record new infections and germany isnt urging people to abide by the rules. Italy with new plans to halt the spread. New york says hospitalizations a newder control with curfew. At least one person is dead and several more wounded in a shooting in vienna. Security officials are describing it as a terror attack. Police a several gunmen were involved. One person was killed and at least one person on the run. People are being told to avoid and trams and buses are not picking up passengers. Oil rose the most in three weeks as russia discussed the possibility of delaying output cuts by opec agreements. U. S. Futures gained almost 2 bouncing back from a five month low earlier in the session. Opecplus was already considering as the coronavirus continues to weaken demand for energy. U. S. Federal and state officials have erected what they call formidable barriers to stop foreign agents from interfering in the election. Cybersecurity experts have formed wideranging efforts to ensure American Voters are the only ones to decide the fate of the white house. Officials acted after reports russia mess meddled in the 2016 election. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. Just hours to go before the boat, President Trump and joe biden are trying hard to win key battleground states. Post beginning to show biden ahead at the national level, but the swing states remain a tight race. Our reporter ed ludlow is in one of those date right now, arizona. Is critical to the hopes of se campaigns, and arizona polls suggesting biden is in the lead, but this is the state that trump won back in 2016. Ed arizona and Maricopa County are emblematic of what democrats are targeting all across the country, which is suburbanites. Theres a growing population here in chandler where i am but also in the greater metric metro phoenix area. And asianlatino population, an influx of Median Income collegeeducated tech workers, they hope it pans out in the democrats favor. Theres been some bleed in the Republican Party and a republican strategist has told me that some sections of the county or you will see white, College Educated women devoted to trump in 2016 this time voting for joe biden, even if they are registered republicans. Early voting is skewed toward democrats. Met republicans are telling is that they think that trump will mobilize and energize his base, that Trump Supporters will come out and vote in person on election day, and they are putting a lot of faith in that. They still feel they can do well in arizona, but as you said, biden has had a three percentage point lead in arizona for several months now, although both sides tell me there will be a much closer race than the polls suggest. Looking at what is going on in congress itself, what are we looking at for the senate at the moment . Its going to be crucial for both of these parties. Arizona, for example, we could have for the first time in about 50 years to Democratic Senators in washington. The first8 midterm, democratic senator in a long time in the state was elected. Now it martha mcsally, who is again running against mark kelly, a former astronaut and democrat. If she loses, then you have two Arizona Democrats going to the senate. This is something that could be impactful. We know that biden hopes to add a net gain of around three senators. Its incredibly important race here in arizona. On the trumps message has been in focus where you are. Ed with all voting groups, with tino, asian, white, all ages. Prior to the pandemic, the economy was strong here. The republican governor was widely seen as a successful governor. Trumps handling of the virus is now top of mind for voters. He put pressure on the governor in june or july to reopen the economy, then we saw that big spike in cases here in arizona. In recent weeks cases have started to trickle upwards again. Trump was in arizona appealing to latino voters, saying he would bring around 2 million latinos. That is one key battleground. It is the economy and the virus. The democrats are not resting on their laurels. Democratic strategist tell me that even though early voting suggest they have a lead, what theyre going to do over the next 24 hours is appealed to groups that dont traditionally vote. Younger voters, latino communities, maybe 30 of the population will reportedly turn out in that group. Biden has been doing it across ohio today, going after President Trump on his handling of covid and the economy. Ed ludlow they are in chandler, arizona, a key swing state for both president ial candidates. With ahead, an economist her view on how regional economies are recovering from the pandemic. Morenda next, we seek answers to our question of the day. Most onsets will move the Election Results . Thats coming right up. This is bloomberg. Coming live images through from both men of the hour, as it were. Joe biden there in pittsburgh, in the swing state of pennsylvania privet donald trump kenosha,r swing state, wisconsin. Both candidates claiming the inside track to victory. Hotly contested president ial contest. Saying Campaign Manager the path for trump would two of those three states were vote counting is expected to take days or longer, despite donald trump saying he thinks the winner should be declared on tuesday night, even some talk coming through that he would say he was going to declare victory on tuesday night, irrespective of all the vote tallying being counted. Haslinda and in those swing states, emerging market stocks have rebounded from their worst week in more than a month while the dollar is high. Volatility is also high as investors weigh potential outcomes of the u. S. Election. An emerging Market Strategist a lot of anxiety in the market. Concentration for the wilder moves ahead. Thats right. I dont think theres a huge amount of position taking having taken place as we wait for the outcome. Not just when we see clear results, but delays, challenges, etc. 2016. Are memories of many wondering how this is going to pan out. From a dollar perspective, is probably on the back foot after elections and the boat scenarios were looking at. Asian currencies in particular should do quite well out of it. Haslinda theres a lot of talk about a blue wave. As a biden win necessarily mean a weaker dollar . I think thats the central scenario. If the polls are right, a blue we think policymaking shifts would be incumbent, a broader Global Policy perspective would be encompassing more trade bodies and be more trade friendly. Necessarily that pressure on china would ease. It may take a different shape, but it wouldnt ease. Is not going to be clearcut, but overall, we see asia as a bastion of light almost in this environment where its first in, first out in terms of covid. Growth recovery is taking shape. General seems to be in a decent position to capitalize on dollar weakness. Haslinda amid fx volatility, where do you see opportunities . Which pairing seemed to present opportunities to you . Market hasthe balm been interesting in the sense we havent seen big spikes involved. Again would bee the ones to look at. If you really believe the polls, you believe theres going to be a blue wave, you want to be a bullish risk after the election we would you want to be holding generally equities and risk we think the likes of the korean won and the taiwan dollar will also do well. Thats probably the way you want to play it, depending on the outcome of the elections. But thats probably what we will see. Rishaad the question of the day, which assets move the most on Election Results . In other words, which Asset Classes are most sensitive . Given that equities have been on the back foot going into the election, we do see a blue wave, probably see a bit of a shift in asset allocation. Its clear there is concern about valuation and tech stocks, there could be some rotation in equities rather than a selloff or broader based rally. But rally stocks have been under some pressure for some time. One thing to bear in mind, covid is still in the background and thats dampening sentiment for equity markets. Raising the prolonged economic weakness, in our view is going to have a week q4. There still a lot of risk on the horizon. I think em currencies will come out of this quite well. Rishaad i know you are e. M. At the moment, but youve been a developed Market Strategist for years. You mentioned the swiss earlier and the yen. Tell us about some of the others. Sterling very much at the moment moving with regard to brexit. Election play into those currencies, and what else plays into them as well, and what are you forecasting . Its a good question. When you look at euro, a lot of people have wanted to take advantage of postelection dollar weakness. I think it will mean trouble in the weeks ahead. The e. U. Recovery fund is not going to kick in until early next year. The reality is that i dont think it bodes well for a euro recovery. I think the euro might not be the best currency to take advantage of the softer dollar. Might be a shortterm starting rally that will boost us into the 133 region against the dollar, but again, how much upside can we really see when the u. K. Economy could be one the worst hit in terms of the new wave of covid . If growth is already weakening sharply, it could come under a lot more pressure. It goes back to my initial thesis, which is the currency that could take best advantage of dollar weakness could end up being in the e. M. Space. The yen might benefit from risk aversion. I dont think after the elections that will be the case. Much. D thank you very scrutiny, rising ahead ofant trading debut ahead of ants trading debut. This is bloomberg. Rishaad we are back. Chinese regulators in a rare meeting ahead of the worlds biggest ipo trading debut. Institutionalize retail demand for this 34 point 5 billion offering is shooting through the roof. Stephen engle is tracking it at the moment enjoys us is what is going on and joins us with what is going on. What do we know about what occurred at this meeting . Stephen we know that the chinese regulators are keenly interested in this ipo in the development and growth, the mushrooming growth of the group and its industry platforms, whether its payments, asset management, insurance, as well areending, microloans that not so microanymore. They want to control the risk element, obviously. The Chinese Government and regulators, where the securities are banking regulators, the Foreign Exchange, they want to control the risk to this emerging recovery, if you will, tenuous at best from the pandemic. They dont want to add institutional risk to the 49 trillion financial industry. What we do know is what we that there was a supervisory interview, thats what its being called, with those regulatory bodies where they invited jack ma as well as the chairman and ceo of the ant group to meeting to outline whats going to be expected of them on the regulatory front. Will be treated as a Financial Holding company and subject to all the rules and restrictions of that bank space. Not just a technology company, it will be treated as a bank. Weve already seen a number of ant,ictions come down on such as capital a caps on , so iing requirements think it was just a talking to for the officials, that their business as well as their executives are going to be under greater scrutiny. What are we hearing about how demands on the ipo are shaping up . Anecdotally, we hear from brokers who say retail and institutional demand is off the charts. They are having a hard time keeping up with it. Takingk closed on subscriptions early, but we do have data according to people familiar with the situation, saying the gray market opened up for Institutional Investors in their bidding 120 hong kong dollars a share. The list price is 80. The retail trend as well, the numbers there and shanghai, were hearing that the retail portion exceeded initial supply i more than 870 times. People are scrambling to get as little slices of the pie as possible because there banking that this is a oneway bet. Of course there is no such thing as a oneway bet, but things are shaping up to be a possible pop in this 34. 5 billion ipo, the worlds biggest. There. A Stephen Engle heres the latest business flash headlines. Tiktok has secured the rights of sound and recordings in a new deal with sony using that will keep their existing relationship. For the app to collaborate in promoting artists who sign with sony. Sources say its significantly more than its previous deal. The latest in a string of the investment deal has been confirmed by the company. The coo taking on his duties. There were a number of executive resignations this year. Rishaad weve got both donald trump and joe biden final push, with rallies, joe biden on the left there in pittsburgh, pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground state, as is wisconsin, where donald trump is at the moment rallying his troops, as it were, there in kenosha. Photos the backdrop of a finish perhaps being instore for both these candidates. And the stock market has been looking closely at all of this. The dow this week having its biggest fall in a preelection week in history. This is bloomberg. 1020 9 a. M. Income hong kong and shanghai, 9 29 p. M. Here in new york first word headlines. Our top story, the u. S. Election in the home stretch. In swing states some closing when he for hours and candidates pushing for lastminute votes in an election that will shape politics at home and abroad for years. President trump and joe biden holding multiple rallies in key states. The country gripped by the front of ours. Allegations of fake news and a continuing debate over race relations. The president pitting doubts over the veracity of results. In other news u. K. Government is sending troops to the northwest city of liverpool to organize Virus Testing for half a Million People. The department of health says all residents and workers will the offered routine checks whether they show symptoms or not. 2000 military personnel will be deployed in an operation starting a day after National Lockdown measures begin across the whole of england. Alibaba Group Founder jack ma has been summoned by regulators and china days before his Company Listed in hong kong and shanghai. No details about the meeting have been disclosed. Erik ching and chief executive simon who were there. Ant shares said to be trading at a 50 remain in the hong kong market, with the stock expected to soar on its debut later this week. Car sales in japan hit top gear last month rising at the fastest pace in eight years as the economy recovers from a wrecker contraction. Auto delivers are one of japans earliest Economic Indicators. They rose 31 from a year earlier, partly due to the distortion of a 26 [indiscernible] 12 month ago as a sales tax kicked in. The wider economic expansion is expected to slow toward your end. The number of people known to have died in the strongest storm in the world has risen. The typhoon devastated large parts of the eastern philippines is almost a half Million People move to safety. It was the equivalent of a category five hurricane and is now heading for vietnam. It was the 18th storm to hit the philippines this year. Most patel it is were in provinces south of manila most fatalities were in providences south of manila. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at quicktake by bloomberg. I am karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. Asia in positive territory. Despite anxiety in the lead up to u. S. Elections which some people say is the most important u. S. History. Msci asia pac index up. 7 . The vix easing to 37 from 40 friday per remains elevated dollar easing somewhat today after gains overnight. The dollar has been trading higher against most g10 currencies. The dollar in a month high on haven play. Taking a look at the broader asian market. Australia, hong kong, korea, leading higher up by more than 1 . Japan on holiday. Fg made it, hang sen easier tog seng include ipo listings. Aussie is looking like this but seen rebounding if the rb is his policy as expected. The aussie at 70 55 unchanged. 10 year yields can still fall if the rba increases. You would have to be a troglodyte not to know the u. S. Election is hours away. Joe biden ahead the battleground states remain tied. Investors concerned about a contested result. Lets get to implications for asian economies. Chief asiapacific economist at Citigroup Global markets. Joanna what is the call here . Is a Biden Victory going to affect this part of the world differently to one which involves the reelection of the incumbent . Outcome, having a clear would relate to risk market. There has been nervousness about a contested election. Now polls suggest biden will win and if that happens there is a perception that biden for asia will help restore a rulesbased international order, reduce volatility over the last

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