Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240712 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 12, 2024

College we need to focus on. Tom not only be Electoral College but the outcome. Divya weston gets to Election Results on the west coast tonight. There are any number of ways to slice it. My opening comment for the next 30 hours is simple. We have seen this force. This is part of america, it deeply divided america. There is nothing new about that. What is new is the social media, the cable tv concentration, the emotion in your face. It used to not be that way. Maybe we can all get comfortable by milford, New Hampshire, where they voted early, probably without tiktok or twitter. The last when its time we talked about a not so peaceful transition of power in the u. S. . We talk about possible social unrest in the u. S. I was speaking to a senior banker yesterday at one of the largest swiss banks, and he said the Trading Floor is fully prepared overnight to see whatever happens, they are prepared. It could become if there is a big surprise, it could be see extra so we will market checks today. Tom i was going to say with the dow, the s p 500 up 45 points, you are correct, it is tangible, the worry about this election day and the outcome tonight and over the next number of days. And unclear as to what is priced in right now. Lets get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. Never been anhas election day like this one. Almost 100 billion americans have already cast their ballots and they did so in the midst of the pandemic that has killed more than 230,000 people. President trump and joe biden cap their campaign with a push through states critical to deciding the outcome. The president said biden is not mentally equipped for the office. Biden called the president a disgrace. Two small New Hampshire communities that traditionally vote just after midnight have already tallied their ballots in the president ial election. It was a clean sweep for joe biden. Five votes. Owns in a slightly larger town, President Trump won 16 of the 21 votes. Previous terror the suspect was killed by police and it is not clear if he was acting alone. Police made a number of arrests in grades this morning over the attack in austria. Other people were wounded in the attacks. Shots were fired at six different locations. Prime minister Boris Johnson says there is no alternative to imposing a coronavirus lockdown across england. Johnson revealed plans for entire cities to be tested to root out asymptomatic carriers of the disease. Lawmakers from johnsons own conservative party raise concerns about Civil Liberties and mental health. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. This is numbered. Francine . Dom . This is bloomberg. Francine . Tom . Tom i am not going to bring to forget about dow futures up 43. The vix comes in remember we were at 40, maybe even 41 cant remember that data point. 35. 81, in a full stick right now. Yields show higher, a three basis point move on the 10year benchmark. Currency markets, dollar finally ebbs away from strong dollar, 93. 66 on dxy. On the currency pairs, not that much going on. Even swiss franc backs up a little bit, a weaker swiss franc. Investors probably beginning the week to reflect on more optimism following weeks of speculation of a contested outcome producing no clear winner for some time. Im not sure what is priced in, but if you look at polls, they continue telling us that joe biden is ahead, though the rates remain very tight. You can see this being priced in possibly on the market. The vix is not elevated. Im looking at pound because it is currency volatility that could happen. So we are on watch if anything happens for currency markets, as traders are bracing for these postpoll swings. In europe im looking at the markets up, it is really the paribasncluding bnp leading the rally in bancshares because they were more optimistic about the future. Tom our goal across the many hours of this election coverage and into the following days is to give you good conversation. We are going to do that, starting strong with Greg Valliere. First, a conversation about the two candidates. Mr. Biden almost 100 million have voted so far. 100 billion have voted already and more are going to vote today. Pres. Trump a vote for biden is your automobile industries. Mr. Biden the power to change the country is in your hands. Amorrow we can put an end to president who has fanned the flames of hate across this country. Pres. Trump we cannot let the sleepy guy fool us now because he happens to be a corrupt politician. Mr. Biden it is time for donald trump to pack his bags and go home. Pres. Trump this election comes down to a very simple choice. Do you want to be ruled by the corrupt and selfless political maniacs that youre dealing with, or do you want to be ruled by the American People . Tom interesting conversation on the final dash. To them from pennsylvania, with the president in North Carolina as well. Very valley i is from Gregory Valliere is from New Hampshire. They kids that experience in the winners and losers of our democratic process. Mustread morning note read worldwide inside the beltway. Hes up way too early, but that is because he wanted to be the sixth voter at Dixville Notch. For our international audience, explain that you drive out of boston, you go up the Connecticut River through White River Junction and the rest of it, and then you go north toward your ancestors in canada. Where in gods name is Dixville Notch . Greg it is way in the north in the mountains. It gets notoriety once every four years. They now have four years to go before anyone talks about them again. Francinee we will take up to boston so she can see autumn in its beauty in new england. Devon weston will bring results to us. David westin will bring results to us tonight. Mcconnell is he in trouble . I doubt it very much. This is going to take several days before it is resolved, several days of recount come of litigation, and in fact it could be several weeks of litigation before we get this answer. Francine there are benchmarks tom there are benchmarks that you and i have studied for years. Indiana,rre haute, which has voted right since 1956. They got it right since 1902. It wrong twice since 1902. Are we going into the evening blind . Greg i think a lot of the old rules have been thrown out. I think we will wake up tomorrow morning not knowing for sure what happened in pennsylvania, and maybe by friday we will know. And then the lawsuits start and they will go on for weeks. Francine if you had to make a prediction, what would you expect . What would you expect in terms of when the final outcome will be known . Who do you expect to be in the white house . Blue im saying a light wave, not the title blue wave that some people are talking about. Not the title wave people are talking about. People easy will he will easily win the popular vote by 5 million, 6 million, 7 million votes. The only intriguing market is the senate. I think the democrats could gain Senate Control by one seat, navy even in a tie. That is not a blue wave. Maybe even in a tie. That is not a blue wave. Get a lot ofeds to people through, and i dont see that happening tonight. Francine given that you dont see pennsylvania called until friday morning, what happens in the media in the immediate aftermath . As a foreigner, i have to say it is pretty shocking to think of a transition of power that could not be smooth in the u. S. , that could lead to rioting in the streets. Greg we could see a pretty good night for the republicans because so Many Democrats have already voted. I think of the 100 million voters, 60 to 70 voted for biden, but we get the makeup of that tonight. In driving through downtown d. C. Yesterday, the whole city is boarded up. They are preparing for riots. Tom help me with the senate races. One of our first looks is a gentleman from South Carolina. We will see what mr. Graham can do. On the east coast, do you get a flavor of the senate early, or am i going to have to wait and wait and wait until Kevin Cirilli wakes up and leads coverage . Greg you may have to wait until january for when you have georgia runoffs. It could take that long. Just as 2020 breaks all the rules, i think it is possible the senate could wind up a tie broken by the democrats. But i dont see a tidal wave for the democrats in the senate. Francine tom Greg Valliere with us. We will talk about policy and outcomes with him in a moment. The president ial election look for that tonight. David westin, really excited about what we have put together, which is conversation and perspective away from the hyperbole. Speaking of that, hes is a democrat. The doctor, howard dean, will join us. A former dnc chairman. I believe he is voting biden. At dean will join us here 6 30, an important conversation on how the democrats will lead, if and only if mr. Biden takes a trophy. Stay with us this election day. Worldwide, this is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance, tom and francine from london and new york. Happy election day. We look at the polls state by state, and of course we had a great conversation with Greg Valliere, we talked about the fact that you are expecting a light blue wave, if i said it directly, and the fact that you can see a lot of states not being able to tell us who won in the Electoral College until friday at the earliest. When you look at the national polls, what are we missing . Greg i think two things. Covid, covid. Vid, as donald trump says, that is a huge factor. And a lot of the things Senior Citizens resent his treatment of this. The other thing is what happens to the poll takers themselves. They have changed their methodology to include more noncollegeeducated white men in other words, trump supporters. They have increased their reading of trump supporters. So my production is the polls will not be office much this time as they were four years ago. Francine what can you tell us about the Biggest Surprise that would come under a Biden Administration . Is it technology . The Energy Landscape in the u. S. . Is it china or is it stimulus . A stimulus right away i think the real surprise for the markets is that i might not go for big tax increases right away. I think he might worry the economy is fragile, he might not want to antagonize the markets. We will get tax hikes, but they could come later rather than sooner. I look at a lot of americans on both sides of the aisle who out of this election has said they will move abroad. You yourself have said you will hampshire, which is frightening. There are four boxes that we could come up with, but to find the gridlock that you see in march of 2021. Greg that gridlock is that there are not enough democrats in the senate to get any of bidens agenda done, and they all face a really tough decision as they vote to kill the filibuster rule. I think biden is inherently opposed to it, but he might agree, so that gridlock might lead to institutional changes in the senate. Tom cut to the chase here right now. What is your reading of guys like wasserman and the other experts on all of this math iness . Tothere a legitimate shot gain in the senate . Greg yeah, i think they could get one seat, maybe two. But his two seats enough . This is critical, because there was a report sunday night that mr. Biden will keep the senator from massachusetts and the senator from vermont in the andte for senate stability, not push them but keep them out of his cabinet. Is that where we are heading . Thee does the what does Progressive Left do with that . I think she stays in the senate, and i think bernie stays in the senate, not in the cabinet. So what with the cabinet look like, greg . Greg very diverse, far more diverse than this one. The focus in the industry will be on the treasury department, and there is a very brilliant, highly respected woman who is theon art and who is odds on favorite to be treasury secretary. Francine what does it mean for stimulus . You can call lets say we have a president in the next two weeks, for the sake of all this polling and this uncertainty. But it is called in the next two weeks. How quickly after january could we have a real stimulus package . Greg unfortunately, because i think we really need a stimulus right away, it could be february before we get a stimulus bill done. It could be a big 1 two chilean dollars, i think maybe 3 trillion i think 2 trillion, i think maybe 3 trillion. We need stimulus now, and i think we are still three months away. Does a biden presidency, if he becomes elected, change the way the u. S. Deals with lockdown . Will yes, i think that he listen to dr. Fauci. I think that we will have social distancing. We will certainly have much tougher regulations on masks. I dont see the country locking down like much of europe has, but dr. Fauci plays a much bigger role in a Biden Administration. Tom greg, thank you so much. Reg valliere from Greg Valliere, from Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. Where he could not vote this morning. Im kidding, folks. Reg valliere is from washington. Bostonor of the city of this is a timely conversation with a gentleman watching the Election Results, a gentleman looking at the legislative dynamics beneath the president ial radar. Martin walsh in the 8 00 hour. Please stay with us. Futures up 48. The vix at 35. 77. It is election day. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Im ritika gupta with your Bloomberg Business flash. Saudi aramco says thirdquarter profit fell 45 from a year ago. The world set Largest Oil Producer was hurt by lower crude prices and smaller sales volume. The worst of the Coronavirus Impact on Energy Demand may have passed. A Board Committee has concluded that Ceo Jack Dorsey should stay on the job. The panel was asked to review twitter leadership as part of an agreement with activist investor , and private equity firm silver lake. S. A. P. s ceo is trying to put a positive spin on the cup and hes slowing revenue growth. Tristen klein tells bloomberg tv more clients are transitioning to Cloud Computing products. German Software Giant lost a third of its value following a forecast. That is the latest Bloomberg Business flash. Tom thank you so much. It is the surveillance hb 12 see. A report that china will double its economic output in the next 15 years. 12c,e go to surveillance, hb gdpthe number is 4. 73 growth per year. Francine, that sounds doable, right . Francine it sounds doable as long as the rest of the world doesnt go through a massive downturn, something that could be possible. I have to say it will certainly have an effect of tempering volatility in renminbi with the u. S. Election, so i think the timing of this is actually quite interesting. This fourthe setting, or five year plan. Tom francine has other data as well. What is important here is that George Saravelos comes out biden versus trump, and it is biden come along e. M. , trump short e. M. Francine . Francine we have to look at emerging markets, for example, such as the mexican peso, but certainly it is currency markets that are saying they will post bracing for the post pull swing. Increasedes also up, volatility, but im looking at European Mining shares. Theres they are up. Banks are up as well. Coming up, geoffrey yu. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. I have to begin this conversation by using the word, uncertainty. I am worried about the process of a contested election and widespread unrest. Come january 20, i am worried there is still no clear picture as to who the president is. Reality will start to set in theresident trump wins and market will be less unenthusiastic. This guarantees a Biden Victory or not, i think is anyones guess. Election to election, the difference is not so much people changing their minds, it is who decides to turn out. Biden in the white house gettingthe senate means stimulus through in january will be tough and this country will need it. There is not an exit ramp for either side. The stakes are so high, when we wake up wednesday, or further along, half the country will find this an existential threat. Guestse some of our weighing in on the uncertainty. Markets and havens. Yu, first of all, are you pulling an allnighter in case there is something ugly overnight . Hoping to get three hours between putting the children to bed and when the polls close. Is; howrtant thing quickly can we get a result . That will make the difference between volatility. In . Cine what is priced his volatility unexpected . Is volatility unexpected . Priced in there is a clear outcome. Swiss, safedollars haven, risk on risk off proxies, the market is saying we wont promote uncertainty. Interior minnesota politics, carleton college; we will avoid that. I will ask you about where we are one year out. The debt build up worldwide. Is d

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