Interview for global wall street. I believe david folkertslandau is scheduled with us, from deutsche bank. The sun has not risen on the east coast yet. When it does, we will start to see the trickling in of the final 5 of voting in some states, and in some there is still a very large gap involving tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands of votes. What am i focused on . I guess i have to be focused on nevada. I may be wrong on that, but that is the one state on focused on right now, francine. Francine what im focused on is the legal challenges. I think it is pretty much being dismissed by the markets, and a lot of legal experts are also saying there is not a path forward for the president to challenge the voting. My want to see how that pans out and if there is a bigger impact. Lets get to first word news with ritika gupta. Just oneoe biden is battleground state away from becoming the next president of the united states. Biden already won two key prizes in the midwest, the states of michigan and wisconsin, putting him at just six Electoral College votes away from the 270 he needs. His best chance appears to be in nevada, where he holds a lead over president trump. For the president to be reelected, he would have to win all the battleground states that have not been called yet. President trumps team is pursuing a contradictory legal strategy. The president is trying to stop vote counting in states where he is ahead, but he is demanding counting or recounting where he is losing to biden. The president has repeatedly claimed that there is widespread fraud in voting by mail. And the tightly contested election is putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve to support the economy. Policymakers are not expected to announce a shift today when they conclude their twoday meeting. Coming changes to the feds bond buying program. Chances of aggressive physical spending for households and businesses faded when a democratic sweep did not happen. Regulations take effect in england today, and forcing the closing of pups, gyms, and nonessential shops of pubs, gyms, and nonessential shops. Prime minister Boris Johnson warned that england faces the risk of mortality on a grievous scale. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Let me get to the data check right now before we get to an important conversation on the political moment. Futures up 56, a leap up this morning. Over 28,000 on the dow. The nasdaq 100 maybe not as big a day as yesterday, but nevertheless green on the screen. The main story for equity market 26. 56, ace, the vix, stunning statistic as uncertainty comes out of the market. Maybe that is mr. Biden. Most likely that is the u. S. Senate. As francine alludes to, the 10 year yield,. 73 . Other than that, pretty much stasis. Dollar weakness this morning. Thecine im looking at dollar, and im also looking at the 10year treasury yield. The fact that im not sleeping is also messing with my voice. We had some mixed election results, and that raises the likelihood of a divided congress but also raises bets on the markets that it will not trigger major changes to taxation, that it wont trigger major changes to regulation that have underpinned the bull market. Im looking at the european stoxx 600, definitely climbing, and it is really Technology Stocks that are moving that. If you look at the other things we are watching out for, gilts are also rallying after the bank of england said it is really interesting, the impact on pound also counterintuitive. It used to be pound weakness wendy current it used to be pound weakness. Joe biden on the cusp of winning the white house, donald trump is not giving up. Here are the two gentlemen. Mr. Biden after a long night of counting, it is clear that we are waiting enough states to reach 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Im not here to declare we have won, but i am here to report when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners. We will be going to the u. S. Supreme court. We want all voting to stop. We dont want them to find any ballots at 4 00 in the morning and add them to the list. We will win this. Tom remarkably two different stories, but we have seen that throughout this campaign. A wonderfulhis is conversation because of the perspective of texas. These are the London School of economics and the professor of International Relations after a lyndonreer in Baines Johnson is the treater p. Thatter trubowitz knows lyndon Baines Johnson was the very6 electoral votes to goldwaters 52 volts. How did we go from the trouncing of the goldwater and others along the way to such a divisive nation . Peter it has been a long road, tom. Good to be with you and francine this morning. This kind of divisiveness and polarization did not just start on Donald Trumps watch. It has gotten much worse for sure, and it is plainly evident today. But this has been coming for some time. The country is just deeply, deeply divided. Those people that were hoping that this election would be clarifying it is not this bection, it is not going to remembered for its political clarity. Even in flipped states like a wisconsin or a michigan, biden won by running up the vote totals in reliably urban democratic strongholds. What you are not seeing is people like crossing over. There is one really interesting exception to that right now. Maricopa county, arizona. Up,he vote tallies hold that county has voted republican in every election since 1948. It looks like it is going biden blue. Tom lets rip up the script because fossils like me look at arizona as 47 people and a lot of desert. And of course that is not the case. Where 11 electoral votes, wisconsin only has 10, and that statistic just stunned me. Peter trubowitz, frame for our global audience right now how we do not understand maricopa county, how we do not understand the future of this nation as exemplified by phoenix. Peter the thing about maricopa is that it has a lot of independent voters, and they have typically traditionally voted red, voted republican. We still have to wait. There are still ballots to come in and so forth, but it has been called by the ap and fox and some others. Blue,trending right now and it is very striking. But here is why arizona really matters, in terms of a larger picture. If it is flipped by biden in the end, it means he doesnt need pennsylvania to get to 270. If we assume that wisconsin, michigan hold up and that the nevada vote does go the way it appears to be going, democratic. Those 11 electoral votes really do matter. The other very interesting story here is georgia. I mean, we may very well be headed toward a recount there. Because the difference, it looks like it is going to be under 1 , less, half a percent or the difference between the two. And biden can call for a recount if he wants. Dontne professor, i want to call it early, but if joe biden is president and he says he wants to unify the country, how does he do that in terms of policies . Who does he put in his cabinet to have a real crack at that . Peter francine, it is going to be very, very tough because i think the big take away here is say for the sake of argument that biden does get elected and the Court Challenges dont hold up by trump. But the take away is going to be that on balance they are willing to take a chance on joe biden but not willing to make it easy for him to govern. If we end up with a divided government i know that is music to wall streets ears, but it means that many of the problems that face the country, from income inequality to Racial Division to the urban rural polarization will not be programmatically addressed. Aboutvery hard to think who he is going to put in place to overcome these divisions. He will have a tough road to slog. For onehave only time more question. I want to talk about what happens to populism after the leader of the populist moment moves along, whether it is he would longer Williams JenningsBryant William jennings bryan, etc. What happens to trumpism after trump . Peter it will not disappear after trump, and i dont think trump will disappear. It is real, it is not going away, and donald trump if joe biden is the next president , hes going to have to deal with it. There are going to be republicans who pick up that mantle. You already here it, tom, we are the party of the working class and by that we mean the white working class. They are going to play that and they are going to push that. I just think this is with us. It is not just the united states. This is a story about oecd democracy, across the west. It is still here in the u. K. , where im talking to you from. It is still in the west, where the pandemic has in a sense kind of tamped it down, but i think it will come back. That is where i am on it. It is not a happy there is division and so forth, it is problematic, but that is the reality. Francine professor, thank you so much. Trubowitz, professor of International Relations. Coming up, we tracked covid19 through the vaccine. We speak with the astrazeneca chief executive. That is coming up shortly, and this is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance, tom and francine from london and new york. Lets check with the data is telling us. A lot of the focus is on a possible majority for joe biden. We also look at the senate, and it looks like it will be held by republicans with a focus on the markets that actually we could see not to regulation being taken out, and we could also see a bit of a boost when it comes to some of the things including extra stimulus. Astrazeneca Third Quarter profits did fall a bit short of analyst estimates. The drugmaker is on track with i am delighted to welcome to surveillance the chief executive , pascal soriot, who joins us now. Pfizer and maternal are seen as the front runners in developing a possible vaccine because of a setback that you face in your trial and the pausing of your trial in the u. S. Despite that setback, could you still come out and have that first vaccine available . Good morning, francine. First of all, we hope that there will be several Vaccines Available to people around the world. The quantities that are required are enormous, and manufacturers have to work to make sure that we have enough. We at astrazeneca have two programs. One is a u. S. Study of about 20,000 patients, and it has been delayed because of a problem we experienced. The other program is the International Program that is relying on 22,000 patients who the u. K. Anded in brazil, and that program has been working very well and we believe we should get results by the and of francine in light of the u. S. Trial halt and setback, do you believe you will get approval for a vaccination in europe and in the u. K. Before you get it in the u. S. . For thethis is regulators to decide this. Thely depends on International Program will deliver results that we will have to be assessing by the regulators, including those in the united states. So they may want to wait for the results of the u. S. Study, and they may review the International Program and give us an emergency approval. I cannot really comment. It will be up to the regulators, individual countries to decide. Francine when you look at this vaccination, what is your biggest concern, that mathematically you have a formula but it is very difficult to store it and to put it out there, that people will not want to take it, that regulators are too slow or too quick . What is the one thing that could get you off track . I worrythe only thing about is making sure the vaccine works. We still dont know. We have been doing a lot of work and running very quickly to be ready, but at the end of the day, we dont know. Data, but wegood will know soon whether it works or not. If we have good safety as we hope and expect to get, i think the public should be reassured by the fact that not a single regulator, but many regulars around the world will look at this data independently from each other. Looking at the data regularly, look in then we u. K. And japan, canada, and all those regulators will look at the data and make their decisions independent from each other. That should reassure the public that many independent Health Experts will look at the data. Tom tom keene in new york. Thank you so much for joining us. I am very curious as to what your vaccine will cost, and that it is a virus based versus the fancy genetic vaccines. Do you have any idea of the range that your vaccine will be distributed and what the price will be . Pascal the important point here is that we have committed to distribute this vaccine at no profit for the duration of the pandemic period, each means hundreds of millions of doses that have been ordered already, regardless of when they are delivered, would be supplied at no profit, and it will be four dollars to five dollars out the door depending on where the vaccine is manufactured. The variation is simply due to the variation of cost structure. Tom i think this is a huge mystery, and i was speaking with alex morales about it on our pharmaceutical team. What is so important here is for our audience to understand, we get a vaccine, and when well we would be that when will we be in our doctors offices . Do you have any sense of that timeline . Data we clinical hope it will be the case that it will be positive, and we expect the data by the end of this year. Government, not ourselves, but regulators. They review the data quickly, and im sure you have seen that many of those regulators around the world have announced they started his socalled running review of our data, which means they look to the data, they submit to them, and on that basis day should be able to make a determination very quickly. So we would hope that vaccinations largescale would be possible starting in january next year, possibly even december. Francine does the u. S. Election and who gets into the white house actually change the speed of approval or the speed of acceptance among u. S. Citizens of a vaccine . Pascal i think what will influence the speed of vaccinations in Different Countries is really public trust independent Health Experts review of the data. A very is of course stringent regulator, and it is not only the fda that will look at the data. But the u. K. And other regulators around the world will look at this data, and i think the public can be reassured that if vaccine is effective regulators give it the green light. I dont think it depends on which administration in a given country is in charge. I think it really is the regulator, the Health Experts have to give that confidence to the public. Has baffled you most about the virus . We look at this day in and day out. Is it the response that people can recatch it . Is it symptomatic cases . Is there something you thought you would never really see in a pandemic . Pascal the biggest thing with this vaccine is that it is very infectious, and so, you know, many, many people get infected very quickly. So everybody has to be really cautious and keep in mind to wear a mask in public places, wash their hands, observe measures of social distancing that have been recommended. Then for the vaccine, the key question of course will be, will it work . Another question will be, in how many patients, what percentage of patients will it work . Another key question will be, if it doesnt work completely, does it at least stop people from being hospitalized . Patients where it may not become protecting them completely, if it stalls the disease, then you have turned this disease into a very moderate infection. Many questions we do not have answers for yet, but hopefully those Clinical Trial reasons will and lightness a little bit. Is the one thing that must change in a post pandemic world . Canal i think if we develop a vaccine that works well, i would also say that a number of companies are antibodies, and we are developing longacting combination of antibodies come and we hope it can protect people for up to 12 months with a single dose. If you have antibodies, they cannot be exited because they have a dude an immune disease, and we can treat people that have been vaccinated, then i think we will have been able to return to a normal life. Trendsr of longterm that we have seen developing have accelerated the rise of digital, working differently. All these changes have been , and the post covid world will be a different world where technology has played a bigger part. Tom thank you for being with us this morning. On the story of the lockdowns we have seen across the continent, this has been expected. Greece considers if it will act on a threeweek lockdown. Tois directly linked hospitalization in other nations. Francine, i want to note that markets take another substantial leg up right now. The dow futures up 365, and the vix slams in to 26. 75. Francine to be honest, im looking at the bloomberg outinal trying to find exactly what is underpinning that. I dont know whether they expect because of these extra lockdowns. I dont know whether they are relying on more Central Banks. Serve certainly European Tech stocks are gaining on the back of the production of the u. S. Election. We still dont know for sure who will be present, but the market is betting on a biden presidency with a republican senate. Owner is set to seek billion a 180 valuation. Pretty much in line with what we are respecting, but still huge number that will have repercussions for the rest of the industry. Coming up in the next hour, we track covid19 with jason farley , Johns Hopkins nursing professor, at 6 30 a. M. In new york, 11 30 a. M. In london, and this is bloomberg. We have been a deeply increasingly, deeply divided country going back several years now. Gridlock is good. Were not going to see higher taxes. Vshaped recovery has intact. A fed, regardless of who wins, will continue to have their foot on the gas pedal. Both cheer us and to fear. Contingent in washington i think will lead to slower stimulus matter what party wins the digital election. Without any kind of clarity from congress were just going get it going slower. Things are intending to be incomplete and we just have to wait. As hard as that might be. Closer than expected and still undecided u.