Businessweek is really taking everyone by storm. Tom they mentioned all the right schools as well. I think it is true probably in every urban area, but after real estate it is the focus of new york city, what to do with the cherubs in not only the private schools, but i would also mention the stateoftheart anything,ools are, if even more competitive. The schools with a heritage up in boston, boston latin. They are just as hard to get into as the other fancy schools. Do spend a lot of time thinking about education for our kids, and these fouryearolds actually have to do tutoring, but also applications and interviews to get into these kindergartens. I find that fascinating. We will talk about Central Banks much more. Thats get to bloomberg first word news with ritika gupta. Ritika President Trump has fired a Homeland Security official who contradicted his unfounded claims about election fraud. Christopher krebs is a former Microsoft Official who the president named to a top security job. In a tweet last night, the president said that his comments were highlysecurity inaccurate. In michigan, a county that included detroit averted its decision earlier, wayne countys election board because a national uproar when republican members blocked certification. They had been asked to conduct. N order an audit michigan was crucial to joe bidens victory. The senate could still try to consider the reading almond the nomination of judy shelton to the Federal Reserve board, but it is unclear if the result would be any different. Stunning setback by blocking sheltons nomination. Two republican senators were quarantined. Two others voted with democrats. Boris johnson is going green. The british prime minster announced a 15. 9 billion plan to boost industries and tackle Climate Change. New gas and diesel cars will be banned from 2030. Create orys it will support 250,000 jobs. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. The great john tucker asked me today, what is the single thing out there i see, and the single thing out there i see is a raging battle between the bulls and the bears. It is that simple, dashing to december. Down,s up 5, dow level 27. 91. Can you imagine a 19 vix . We are not there yet. Oil with a little bit of an elevation. Brent crude 24. 24. Renminbi continues to show strong pacific rim. Francine . Francine with list markets trading a little bit skewed today, the moves in cryptocurrencies caught my attention. Are backing ns i have to say it could have gotten a bit out of hand. Additional currency more than doubled this year. Bitcoin surging past 18,000 for the First Time Since december 2017. Otherwise, im looking at dollar weakening, and im looking at pound because Rupert Harrison is on and we will talk brexit. Always a good thing to look at sterling. 1. 3289. More stimulus is being called for as the pandemic threatens hopes for global recovery. They spoke at the Bloomberg Economy forum. The original stimulus post covid was not sufficient. And really did not reach those people, either the employees or the Small Businesses that were in the greatest need. We need the fiscal stimulus. We need it relatively quickly. You can see Consumer Spending beginning to get impacted again. Francine joining us now is blackrock macro strategist portfolio manager. Focusing on the vaccine, everything is well, we go back to the growth we had in 2019. Our focus on infections in the mediumterm concerns. How do you see the markets as a whole . Rupert i think that is a good characterization. Broadly constructed if you look sixmonth ahead, this news is game changing. It gives us a bridge to policy. It looks it means we can look ahead to normalization and we will get a rapid bounce back next year. But we have an air pocket in the u. S. Particularly. In europe we have virus news improving. Restrictions are working. We have fiscal support continuing in europe. In the u. S. , we have both of those things as a negative. We have escalating virus news. Policymakers are going to have to react but they have not yet done enough to get on top of it. We also have big uncertainty around the air pocket in fiscal support. Yesterdaysin retail sales disappointment, the first month where we have seen incomes falling because policymakers have not done enough to support incomes. The struggle between a positive six month view and shortterm risks, particularly in the u. S. , is what is leading to this direction in markets. Francine we dont have a number of World Leaders and Businessmen Forum and economy businesswomen saying we need more stimulus, to your point. Is there a danger we are not going to get stimulus because governments say there is a vexing down the road come it could be three or four months away, why create debt if the economy can pick up quickly after that . Danger, but is the that is the exactly wrong conclusion. The correct policy conclusion from vaccine news is that we know policy is a bridge to somewhere, not a bridge to nowhere. These companies are likely to be viable, and therefore the returns to investment now to prevent scarring through bankruptcies and redundancies are that much higher, and any theory that says we are going to have to learn to live with the virus, we have to let these Companies Fail is much harder to sustain. Policies are higher. The political situation in the u. S. , the concern is that it will not deliver that policy in time. On balance, the strong story that we are going to see next year is going to continue dominating market thinking. The struggle for investors right now is that we saw vaccine news reflected in incredible rotation in markets in terms of factor moves, industry moves, individual names, and i think it is clear that a lot of that vaccine news is priced. We have seen momentum selloff. Getting that further impact of those, we are going to need new news. That could be things like the astrazeneca vaccine, which is important for the u. S. And the u. K. For europe and the u. K. Or it is going to be news around policy support. Tom good morning to you. I love what blackrock says, that ae Business Analysis in disaster like we are experiencing doesnt work. A normalhis is not business cycle. We have already seen a much more rapid bounce back than expected, and we will continue to do that in 2021. The political cycle is the key question. I think in europe that is less important because we have on the physical side, we have had this bump in the road for the european package with the hungarians and the polish veto. I think that will get dealt with. But largely the big fiscal support through furlough schemes, work schemes, that is intact and that will last through when it is needed. The focus is on the u. S. , whether we see anything out of this lameduck session of congress. We have the georgia runoffs on january 5. There is an outside chance that the democrats will end up with a 50 50 senate. The scope for disappointment on the fiscal side in the u. S. Is very significant, putting the ball back in the court. Steve englander at Standard Chartered publishing they may take action before the december 16 meeting to do what others. Ont do what happens, rupert, if we dont get fiscal stimulus and the fed feels they need to be patient . What is the Market Reaction to no one showing up for this presumed assistance . Is i think the market i think the market expects the fed to do what it can. I think the fed will agree on that. If you look at the fed, the chair of the vice chair, they are clear that they will do what it takes. I think we have had a stark message from the fed that they are only looking at inflation. They are not interested in the labor market, and growth. If we get a strong labor market, they are not going to take that as an excuse to tighten. They will not do anything that will tighten policy. It is a very different regime. But there are limitations to what the fed can do. They can expand purchases, provide guidance. Battle now theres a on spending power between now and q2 next year. If we say the economy is roaring back in q2, which is the correct expectation, we know that households have pretty good cash positions. Most households has been most households have been saving during this period. Looking ahead to q2 might be enough to sustain the cyclical rally. Tom this is so important. Maybe it is the mcconnell put because senator mcconnell knows the fed will show up. We will have to see. Yes, absolutely, tom, although we keep hearing from i think the speech that Christine Lagarde did last week was probably the envy of a lot of Central Banks because she talked about coordination, really like no one else in terms of major Central Banks have done, almost with a hint of a threat you guys need to show up, politicians need to show up if Central Banks do their job. Coming up, we have plenty more from the Bloomberg New economy forum. Imfill be talking with the chief economist, the guggenheim chief investment officer. You can watch it live on bloomberg. Com, and all of our social channels. This is bloomberg. In my opinion, dont own bonds and dont own cash because they are producing a lot of debt and producing a lot of money to fund it, so that is changing the nature of capital flows. Its also changing how those flows go to china in terms of the comparison to that market, u i think its behaving sensibly, but dont use old multiples as reflections of the limitations of what is expensive. Tom that banner will be interesting. Mr. Dalio dont own bonds, dont own cash. Then what do you own . That is the conundrum right now, all of us living at the zero bound. We are going to talk about green in the next halfhour with Rupert Harrison of blackrock. Right now, rupert, as multiasset strategy portfolio manager, lets go back to square one. What is your Asset Allocation right now if dalio says no bonds, no cash . Rupert i think he is right that bonds are not going to provide the kind of protection and correlations that you are used to in a we still want to own some bonds. I think theyre still a case for that. There is room for diversifying bond allocation. China is an increasingly interesting market for diversification. You want to continue looking into otherprecious metals and te infinity world are useful source, even in the shortterm they are trading with a positive beat. Ad i think you have to build risk portfolio that reflects the opportunities. We still see those as enormous. Albeit some of the problems we have been talking about in the next few months might make for a choppy few months, but when you look six to 12 months out, we see a strong recovery in the world and enormous opportunities with the growth businesses that have driven opportunities over the last decade or so. I think there is going to be a continued cyclical recovery in some of the assets that have underperformed. There is plenty of opportunities out there. Tom the question is, do you get an absolute or a relative performance away from technology . Do we go to cyclical and technology drifts to the wayside, or does it come up rupert to get that cyclical rotation with a market standing still, i think you need to see steeper yield curves and you need to see the discount rates sort of way on longduration assets. I think it is going to be very difficult for yields to steepen significantly. In the u. S. , you have a fed saying they are happy to let breakevens and Inflation Expectations move up. I dont think they will let you real yields drift up significantly. They want to keep the foot to the floor here on Monetary Policy, so i think the extent of that damage that could be done to those longduration assets is going to be limited. Do youe rupert, where find protections against inflation . Do you buy gold, do you buy bitcoin . Is there anything else out there . Rupert i think we want to belong inflation, a tactical view and a longterm view now. There is more uncertainty on the upside to inflation over a fiveyear horizon than there has been for a very long time because we are in this new Monetary Policy regime. We want new inflation exposures. Post gold is empirically not a very good hedge against inflation, but in an environment where investors are looking for a broader range of diversification, or people are extrapolating qe forever, they are looking at that whole narrative around expansion of government debt, expansion of Central Bank Balance sheets, it is useful to have that in portfolios. I think you have to look at more tactical dynamic opportunities when it comes to hedging. That puts pressure on active managers to find good sources of dynamic Asset Allocation and good sources of tactical hedging. Francine rupert, thank you so much. Rupert harrison, blackrock multiassetl strategies. We will talk about the greendale and brexit. Fromg up, french hill arkansas, we will ask him about President Trump conceding or not. That is at 6 30 a. M. In new york, 11 30 a. M. In london, and this is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Im ritika gupta with your Bloomberg Business flash. A key safety milestone and its study of its experimental Coronavirus Vaccine. The ceo says the drugmaker is emergency usek a authorization from regulators. Was 94 aid the vaccine against the virus. The Cryptocurrency Bitcoin is approaching a record highs. That spurred a mania among buyers almost three years ago. That mania ended in a violent crash. The cryptocurrency jumped to well over 80,000 today for falling back some. Bitcoin has more than doubled this year. In europe, a recovery in demand for new cars did not last long. Car sales fell in october by 7. 1 . After countries started reimposing restrictions to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Other than a small gain in september, european car sales have been a decline all year. Down 27 since the first of the month. Tom Rupert Harrison was talking about optimism off the pandemic. George saravelos of Deutsche Bank publishes a blistering paragraph saying simply, europe will boom. Wet gives you attention as bound to december. Continued487 currency strength. Francine . Arecine european stocks pretty steady, tom, kind of range bound, not moving much. They are looking at the rise of virus cases against optimism over a vaccine. It is kind of a binary outcome right now. Since that for the First Time Since 2017. Cryptocurrency is making a comeback. I think we have to figure out the underlying underlying, tom underlying reasons for this. Is that diplomatic enough . The pound is climbing as the u. K. Makes progress on a brexit deal. We will speak about that with Rupert Harrison. I dont want to go to my thoughts. If it prints 25,000, Matthew Miller in berlin retires. It is a surge. There is a link with real yields. We will see if that holds true. Bitcoin up, up, up, confounding goes on the negative currency. I look at the data today, and i really have to go to the persistency of em strength in currencies across the pacific rim doing better. Francine we also have to look at peru and a change in leadership there. Withberg continues today the hsbc chief executive. You can watch on all of our platforms. This is bloomberg. We are quite confident in travel recovery for asia. I think asia will be in the forefront because a lot of the markets in asia are already in the green zone. Thailand already opening back to chinese passengers. Kong also establishing travel bubble. We are back in two volume almost to 2019 levels. Chinasook at , florida, business is better there than it was in 2019. That is because people feel it is safe to get back on the road. Leisure travel is stronger than Business Travel but Business Travelers coming back too. We have robust demand. ,f you look at our bookings they are in the range that they would be precoded. We are not having discount prices or anything. Jobs we impact millions of and while there is almost half a billion people a year that take holidays, only about 30 million go on cruise ships. Unlike my colleagues on the panel, we sale full. We do not have vacancies. Francine those were some of the leaders of the travel industry maintaining a positive out look for the future of travel. The u. K. And talk the green new plan they have put together. We speak with the u. K. Business minister, Nadhim Zahawi. Lets talk about the green deal and the brexit deal. Rupert, when we look at the u. K. s push into Green Financing , how much of this is a plan for a country postbrexit, and how much is the u. K. Just trying to do their part . Rupert it is a bit of both. Politically, this is important for Boris Johnson. It is also building on quite a lot of strength. U. K. , areasat the like offshore wind has been an enormous success story. Green finance, the government making progress with very current very encouraging announcements. If you look at this plan, there is substance. Obviously there are things that are reannouncements, but there is substance because the u. K. Has reallocated a chunk of Capital Spending to this agenda. If you look at the eight ambitions on the hydrogen economy, which is an area of strength, green finance and the natural area of competitive advantage, those are substantive. They have got to deliver, but the plan remains substantive. Francine what abo