Commodities having a positive session the far. Astrazeneca stock is actually down today. The s p is up i 014 . It is a monday. We get vaccine news. Generally it is taken quite well. Cyclicals have a bigger day. That seems to be the narrative that is establishing itself. We do have a euro that has weakened. The manufacturing pmi data out of the united states, and i know the ism is more important in terms of what people look at, but nevertheless, the manufacturing data was strong, and as a result, the dollar went up. It does seem to be something of a consensus now that the u. S. Is simply a few weeks behind europe. You only have to look at what is happening with the eurozone data today to get a sense of how far pmis can fall. Highs,off our earlier off by 0. 2 percent. Boris johnson is currently talking about covid. We are also possibly making some progress when it comes to the brexit story. Certainly today, the big driver is definitely that news on astrazeneca. Alix Boris Johnson saying take great heart from the astra oxford vaccine. The vaccine prevented candidates from getting covid19 a trial. It is being called into question by analysts, specifically an Investment Bank specializing in health care. It called the report embellished. We spoke to astrazenecas executive Vice President earlier about the allegations. I think those comments are quite harsh. We need to realize that the study has been executed by top scientists from oxford, as well as astrazeneca. We will publish later in the week the full dataset, so they are working around the clock in order to give full visibility about the different cohorts we have studied, and i thing it is far too early to speculate about how regulators will react on that. Alix going us now is sam fazeli, bloomberg senior pharmaceutical analyst. What is the biggest question you still have on astrazeneca, and was it answered or not . Unfortunately, he did not answer it. That is why you see a difference between these two socalled cohorts of patients, ones who had half a dose and a full dose, and the other ones who had a full dose and a full dose. Why did you see better effects in that group . We can speculate, and the company can answer that question, but they need to answer it, because until you know why this is happening, you cannot make the case that there is a real effect and it is not just some statistical fluke within the different groups. And as we get more data, we will be able to understand more. So i am completely with the he said, and what lets wait for the full data. Guy why did we get the announcement today . Is it because you release vaccine data on a monday . That seemed to imply that we will get more data by the end of the week. Sam exactly. But did you miss that announcement that was made globally that vaccine data has to come out on mondays . [laughter] guy yes, sorry. My mistake. Sam i have no idea why. If you know you are going to have better detailed analysis, why put this out and create these shenanigans, for want of a better phrase . I dont understand it. Theres no element of Safety Information in there. Analysisd that interim earlier on, but very quickly came out with that analysis. Maybe it is just Everybody Needs to give people a little hint of how they vaccine is doing as soon as they can. Alix what is the next thing you are going to be looking for . I feel like it is really hard to keep track of who, what, where, when. Markets have seen each time we get a roll out of some good news, the market will keep responding less and less. Sam that is natural. We have been a bit spoiled by this 95 efficacy in the pfizer and modernity trial. But lets not forget one thing that astra has done that is really great in this trial, and that has been the data i would love to see. That is they did weekly testing of their subjects. So you would be able to tell not only how this vaccine, whatever level of efficacy it had, impacted the disease, but also how it impacted the infection. Is, peoplee number who are not develop in covid19, are they also not infectious . That is a critical piece of information we will not get from modern and pfizer. From moderna and pfizer. The next one is novavax that we are looking forward to that should report at the end of this year, early next year. Guy excellent. Thank you very much for the update, and as ever for bringing some intelligence into the conversation. Joining us now from copenhagen is Steen Jacobson, saxo bank cio. Should investors be focusing on the vaccine news, which is a kind of second half of next year story . Or should investors be focusing on the virus news, which is a here and now story, and seems to be getting grimmer by the moment . Steen i think market has already taken a decision to look beyond this to the vaccine. I think it is a given that we have it somewhere in the next six months, and i think the market already starts to price assets that way. The only thing we are really missing from the final piece, of course, is to see the first full fiscal support we expect out of the biden adminstration, but 1 asill leave 10year at a critical Inflection Point for the rotation and the confirmation of the rotation, but certainly when we look at our portfolio, what is really working right now is, as you mining,the intro, it is dry shipping, agriculture, industrial metals. ,t is the optionality of buying leisure, hotels and the like. So i think the market increasingly is playing this game and awaiting the resolution of what goes on in the u. S. Alix how long does the Economic Data have until it has two backup what the markets already think they know . Steen a lot of time because you have to remember the policy response at all times will be more of the same. I think the early game in 2021 is what i used to call pretend and extend, but this time it has to be pretend and extend to infinity because we already know that powell is concerned, the ecb is concerned. Lagarde makes two to three speeches a day trying to convey on everybody how important it is to get the fiscal push. So it is ironic. You have no price discovery in the marketplace. It doesnt really matter, to be honest, when the vaccine comes, as long as it comes. Guy is it going to be inflationary, and if so, by how much . Tenure breakevens have bounced back to where we were at the beginning of the year. A reasonable rate of inflation to pricing, and do you think that there is the possibility that that goes . Igher steen i think it is too conservative. Since 1998, which i think his timeline zero in this world of nonprice discovery, when greece decided to bailout the lt cm, we have been on a Financial Stability policy. Everything in the world has been about Financial Stability. The way that works through society and economics is simply the trickledown effect of champagne glasses flowing over. It is benefiting the rich, benefiting the haves, and benefiting capital ownership. What the pandemic accelerated is a couple of trends, but most importantly, it has put focus and the onus on policy response to be on social stability. When we think in terms of social stability, we have to renumber that it is inequality which is one thing. And for structure is another. Certainly it is the green transformation. What is embedded in all of those three categories of social stability is a much higher spend from both the government and consumers because of course, if you do a redistribution policy for one of the three things we just mentioned, you are increasing the propensity to spend money in the economy. I think that is going to be the surprising 2021, plus the that china is coming back online. It means they will step up probably sooner than i expected, which used to be q2. Now i think it is going to be q1. They have the most restrictive policy. All of this is coming in place as we also play the vaccine card and find that hopefully we can one day in the saga on the president elect or not going into office pretty soon. Alix one more question on this part, specifically on the us economy in the next segment. How do you hedge this . Typically we say haven that is gold, the 10 year. What is going to be your hedge in case that scenario doesnt play out . Steen i think commodity, and i think we just saw the biggest commodity cycle in the last decade, and i think that will play out in 2021. The place to be for investors in the commodity cycle, we need to address even old people like guy and me. [laughter] but we need to focus on the fact realcrypto has become a value alternative for safekeeping. I think druck and miller has called it the west coast money. These people want to live in a different system than we do, and that is the feeling they are being made redundant through the monetary system. They trust something else. I think that is a growing inclusion we will see. We see the number of Treasury Companies over the last few months and weeks getting to this space. So i also think that will have competition, and i think it is increasingly we are going to see more and more people like my age Group Getting more into that part of the safe haven as well. Alix there you go. Crypto, and guy, you are old. That was my take away with that. [laughter] Steen Jacobson is going to be sticking with us. More on the european economy next. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson. Alix steel steel is in new york. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. In my conversation with french finance minister Bruno Le Maire, asked him what would happen if poland and hungary continued to veto the plan for the european Recovery Fund. Is there a plan b . Bute do not have a plan b, to convince poland and hungary to change their mind about this they areplan, i think making a strong prickle mistake. I also think they are making for their own people and their own nation strong economic mistake. We all need the support of the european Recovery Plan, and the sooner the better. We are all seeing the consequences of the crisis on thesmes, on the people, on Global Growth of the economy. Why should we wait before spending that money to support our economies . So once again, i really urge hungary and poland to change their mind about this Recovery Plan because the sooner we are able to implement this Recovery Plan, the sooner we can get the money, the better for all of us. That is a question which is of common interest. We need european support. We need the european Recovery Plan. Guy do you think there is some merit in the idea of moving toward enhanced cooperation in order to overcome the vetoes . That we are all on the same board. Facing stand together economic crisis facing this economic crisis. Even hungary and poland, which means we all need to support of european Recovery Plan. Guy french finance minister Bruno Le Maire speaking to me earlier today. Lets bring back into the conversation steen ja kobsen of saxo bank. Polandto by hungary, by could have farreaching consequences. Steen absolutely, and what Bruno Le Maire fails to say is that one of the reasons why is vetoing isgary the rule of law, which is one of avoid,ngs they want to is only on the condition of a meeting that hungary and poland cannot block it. You can too, extent say that the Recovery Fund has become a prisoner on the malfunctioning of the eus legislative way of doing things. I think it is really a catch 22 ,ecause in the case of hungary you have the hardest hit of the pendant, and you have what the core European Countries betting that italy and spain and maybe france come to the table, and wonder that money from the Recovery Fund being played out. But that will not play very well if it comes at the expense of the rule of law. I dont think it is as easy as everyone is trying to make it that ultimately, poland and hungary will step down. Because if they step down in terms of the conversation, it will be based on the fact that they accept the rule of law being implemented, and they cannot live with that with their to messick audience. Alix why dont markets care about this yet . How can someone go buy europe when this isnt a done deal . Someone who has been following european politics for over 30 years, i think it is very difficult to understand how it operates, and i think a politician like Bruno Le Maire, and on the hunt gary inside, they are very good at playing the game of just staying with the headlines. That is very often the case we see. Andes a legal timeline there is a political timeline. The political timeline is the one that guy is interviewing on. That is one case to be made, which Everyone Needs to compromise, but legally that is very difficult right now. The legal and political framework doesnt add up. It has never added up in a european sense. So either europe needs to given and allow them to go ahead and get some somewhat some sort of dilution, or they will have to revisit the treaty of the eu, which dictates they should be suing them through Chapter Seven and other remedies. They are not able to do that, so they can only do it through the budget. So again, we end up in a catch 22. Guy how does this change the calculation on whether or not you want to put money to work in europe . European equities have at really strong run. Does that get sustained . Does that carry on . The risks are mounting, the data are getting worse, and we dont have resolution on one of the key fiscal sides of the story. Steen it is kind of interesting because again, we need to take a step away from the palooka process. Look at the actual cash from the local process. Look at the ash from the political process. From thehe actual political process. Look at the actual stock 600. The Online Companies that we all know are doing well. I think you need to be individual. What i am really saying is on an individual basis, this fundamental value, and in particular if we go back to value investment, i think europe represents deep reservoir value stocks, but it is really depending on this rotation towards cyclical stocks to relieve some of that because right now, people are only willing to pay for Technology Stocks with Free Cash Flow and a discount rate of zero, but imagine a discount rate of 1. 5 and they need to deliver some some physical goods like the volkswagens of the world. Alix really good to catch up with you. Thank you for your time. This is bloomberg. Ritika it is time for the Bloomberg Business flash im ritika gupta. The u. S. Has ordered General Motors to recall nearly 6 million big pickup trucks and suvs equipped with potential deadly decatur airbag insulators. 1 3 of itst about net income this year. Macys is one of the most prominent names to join the movement for Racial Equity in the retail world. The chain plans to devote 15 of its shelf space to blackowned brands. The 15 Pledge Organization refers to the percentage of black people in the u. S. Population. The cdc has stepped up its warning for Cruise Travel to the hass level. The agency now says there is a very high risk of coronavirus to the highest level. The agency now says there is a very high risk of coronavirus transmission on cruise ships. That is your latest business flash. Alix thanks so much. Lets get to carnival for a second. It was a double whammy. The cdc saying all Cruise Travel, the warning was raised to the highest level. They specifically tabled their two large brands through the first quarter, so it is a double women for carnival specifically. Bloomberg a double whammy for carnival specifically. Bloomberg is looking at revenue of 15 of that prepended level. That prepandemic level. Guy the market doesnt really care, does it . The market is now looking forward through the difficult winter, and probably focusing on a world where vaccines are going to be common. That seems to be the narrative at the moment. Is that actually going to happen . Does the airline sector, do the cruise lines have the Balance Sheets to get through the winter . I think it is going to be a huge challenge. Ed bastian at delta talking about how he doesnt see air corridors, particularly in the north atlantic, opening up because neither side can get on the same page when it comes to testing. Alix that is such a good point. Part of that is does each country have to recognize the vaccines to make it say free you to travel without restrictions . I dont have clarity on what that would mean yet. Guy at looks as if we are heading to a world where we have to have some sort of come out of the in terms of the passport or the specification of that vaccine, and whether or not that is going to allow you to travel. I imagine it is going to be one of the key risks if you are taking air travel insurance. What kind of certification are you going to have to required to get that insurance . We are going to talk more about the travel sector tomorrow in more detail. Thatll be a 4 00 p. M. In london, 11 00 a. M. In new york. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Guy 30 seconds until the end of regular trading in europe. Lets talk about the session and how it has evolved. It is interesting. First thing this morning we get a gap higher. We then fate that gap. What you have seen our cyclical stocks benefiting. You see the mining stocks doing well. It seems monday is the date on which this happens. What we are seeing is a rerun of the last three weeks, two