Astrazeneca is to resume vaccine trials amid questions about initial claims and the level protection with Global Buyers numbers on the up. But thanksgiving travelers defy warnings to stay at home. New data shows china is likely to miss targets this year. Imports were slow last month after septembers high, leaving the full year targets out of reach. We are seeing australian stocks starting off on the back after snapping three days of gains yesterday, just falling short of being able to erase those 2020 losses. But we are still on track for the best monthly gain on record, about 13 on november. Further positive news for the country when it comes to 28 consecutive days of no coronavirus cases from victoria. Looking at u. S. Futures right now, initial jab, if you will, cash markets were shot overnight. Not a lot of price action. Down about six points on your s p futures. Dollaryen, 104. 24. Limits to the upside. New york crude below 45. We will talk about opecplus later on. The outlook for the cuts and whether they can push those through moving forward. In the meantime, the vaccine. You have astrazeneca sent to run another global trial of its covid19 vaccine, coming amid questions about its program and the level protection. You look at initial tests claiming varying levels of efficacy, sometime as high as 90 , depending on the dose the purchaser pence were given. That is the key story. Ros krasny is with us. She has the story. Take us through the nuance here. Efficacy means many things to many people. What exactly are we talking about in this case . Ros really there is a debate about how effective the astrazeneca vaccine has been, and whether some of their trial isults have been not quite would not say honest, but some of the trials may have been done on younger people, and we do not yet know how older people who are at more risk respond to the vaccine. Theres some question about a very interesting half dose followed by a full dose regime, and how that came to be. Was it done in error, was it some brilliant move by scientists . A a lot of questions. You have seen a bit of a slip in astrazenecas stock. Some people see this whole efficacy debate as a Reputational Risk of the drugmaker, at a time when the stakes could not be higher. Basically they have come clean and said we will do another trial, and well really run through these numbers again. Its something that can certainly delay approval of the vaccine, certainly in the u. S. , eu,ough in the u. K. And they may be on a different timeframe. It seems like the company is fully committed to, if they have not been fully transparent at that point, to reversing that. Thee talked a lot about Pfizer Vaccine in the u. S. And the Moderna Vaccine. The astrazeneca vaccine is more durable, cheaper, and could be made all around the world, without the need to have very cold storage and things like that. That is why it is so important. Will does that mean we have to wait until the latest trial is completed and that data becomes available before approval is given . Given were also seeing the u. S. Becoming close to approving other vaccines, including the pfizer option. Ros i suspect that the u. S. Food and Drug Administration will push ahead on both the pfizer jab and the Moderna Vaccine over the next few weeks. A very important meeting on december 10. The Advisory Committee meeting on vaccines. There seems to be high hopes within the u. S. Government from operation warp speed, for example, and from the white house, that one or both of those vaccines will soon be approved and really on trucks or in planes, whatever, to get to people who need to be vaccinated urgently. I would tend to think that this would be a setback for astrazeneca in the u. S. , at least for the time being, because chances are the fda will want to see some more studies conducted in the u. S. Before they really give that the goahead. So, certainly the pole position if this is a race, certainly the pole position for pfizer, biontech and moderna. Sooner or later you would think the fda will turn around and consider ashes in a cup once they have consider astrazeneca once they have additional trial information. Haidi ros, unique abouthat is this is we are rooting for every single car out there. We ask this question regularly, given of course the ups and downs, and the latest news on the vaccine story. Talk to us about timetables. In terms of, if im a Frontline Health care worker, when can i expect that to reach my doorstep . The other extreme to that, if im in a poor emergingmarket, when does that happen to me . Ros if you are in a poor emergingmarket, a middle income or poorer country, you really have to look at the timetable for approval of the astrazeneca vaccine. That will be the one that probably gets to most of those countries, and its likely to be produced in several countries around the world. In the u. S. , we heard last weekend from the head of operation warp speed in the u. S. That, really, he thinks vaccines could be going out as soon as december 11 or december 12. Having heard that really made me think that he must have a lot of confidence that the fda Advisory Committee will immediately, or almost immediately ok one or more of these vaccines at the meeting or shortly thereafter. And we actually had President Trump speaking just a few minutes ago, and he said next week or the week after, which i think basically means the same timetable as operation warp speed had indicated for its approval. But once that approval is given, the rollout could be quite fast. And Frontline Health care workers, the vulnerable populations, those will be the people who see the first rollout of these vaccines. Of course it is a very, very complicated effort, but that has been the focus of the u. S. Operation forked the past six or more months. Once the vaccine is ready, to really roll it out very, very quickly. Haidi ros krasny there in washington. You can read more about the vaccine race in todays addition of daybreak. Bloombergs subscribers can get that on your terminal, and it is also right on your mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. Lets get you a check of the first word headlines. Willdent trump says he give up power if the Electoral College votes for joe biden next month. Picking at the white house he said he would certainly go, though conceding defeat would be a hard thing to do. He also maintained his claims of irregularities in the election. The Administration Says the result was rigged in bidens favor in a widespread Corruption Campaign. New data on the phase one trade deal shows that china is likely to miss targets this year. Imports of u. S. Products slowed last month after hitting a high in september, leaving therefore your goal out of reach. China has bought just over 75 billion of prescribed goods, about 44 of the 2020 target. It means a further 95 billion needs to be purchased by december 31. State media says china is likely to exit from stimulus measures soon as the economy improves, but any Interest Rate hikes remain off the table. The securities journal says tight money and tight credit are inevitable, but it sees no prospect of rate hikes for some time. The paper fails to cite any officials, but observers say the frontpage story can be seen as a sign of policy direction. Reports from dublin said the European Commission has told Member States that a full deal with the u. K. Is unlikely this year. Brussels say some progress has been made on bridging agreements and hearing houses. The eu has warned that without further compromised by london, brexit negotiations may be terminated by this weekend. And those are your first word headlines this hour. David a lot more coming up here on the show. We are talking the Global Equity rally on track. Blue circle, best month on record. The momentum is actually sustainable moving forward. Plus, oil markets and cracks are appearing in the opecplus, just days before a key policy meeting. We will discuss the indication of this massive rally we have seen the last few weeks. All of that is coming up. This is bloomberg. S is bloomberg. Lets discuss prospects of a vaccine reflation with head of asset management, on the line from melbourne. Great to have you with us. You have doubts over the vaccine reflation trade. It will continue until we have that Global Equities hit a pause in the overnight session. We have been seeing stronger and stronger indication of the rotation trade as well. What do you expect to see next year . Is it a vaccine reflation trade, or is it we start to see some of the followthrough with a fed and stimulus and fiscal pulse reflation trade . George good morning. The reality of the reflation trade is the success of the vaccine indicates what is required of the fiscal and the Balance Sheet expansion to continue. We all know it is whatever it takes globally, Balance Sheet expansion, and Central Banks independent around the world urging governments all year to expand fiscal stimulus. Having said all that, the automatic stabilizer so to speak is traditional policy mechanisms in qe. So the success of the vaccine indicates what is required from the former two. That is what we are trying to price in on that rotation and across Asset Classes as well. Like you sounds basically are expecting more of the same going into 2020. What are your key risks, then . George plenty of risks. And risks remain, valuations. The preconditions for that to be successful is obviously the stimulus is whatever it takes. Expansion of violence sheets of Balance Sheets. In march of this year, the new cycle began, a severe reset. We spent years going into 2019 with a mature state of the cycle. At the beginning of this cycle, expecting more of the same, for the rotation to continue. But the thing here to remember, the rate of change Going Forward from the stimulus be slowing down. So the gains you have seen in calendar any secondhalf of 2020 continue the same rate, but its still a risk on somatic. The policy risk is the key here, how they respond to it, and the success of the vaccine. David do you think that is a late2021 story . We have seen talk of future tightening disrupt markets in the past. Do you think, say, after june of next year, would that be too early to talk about that perception of rising rates disrupting this rally we are seeing across risk assets . George that is the key. To oversimplify, earning year bond yield a 10year about 125 over the next three months is a concern. And by the second half of next year, depending on the momentum of how everyone is coming back online, remember, supply chains have not been disrupted as much to the downside as people say. So there is going to be good numbers coming out throughout calendar 2021. But it comes down to what you just said, whats a reasonable alternative here. About 125 u. S. 10 year going into 2021 is a concern for valuations you are buying for the end of 2021 or 2022. We are always trying to price future earnings, valuations matter, and that is a key indicator on the reflation trade. David why such an extremely low position . You are just under 1 . George very quickly, i have 21 years of data. Theres a lot of short positions. And looking at how the managers are working across the global, we tested looking at the data in 2012 to 2016. Those shorts collapsed from 10 , decades for 1. 5 before hands from 2012 to 2016. Of having key driver to look at the concerned when he started expanding Balance Sheets and the risks involved with that. Shortssaid that, the built up going into the pandemic. This liquidity is making it very difficult to have sustained short positions for long periods of time. That is the backdrop. Having said that, we are looking for protection for all portal he was going into 2021 to try and lock in the excess returns on the long side. David viewers, take note of that. George, have a great rest of your friday. Lets continue the conversation on the vaccine. Our guests said news on the vaccine said there is light at the end of the tunnel but plenty of hurdles remain. He spoke exclusively to bloomberg on the challenges facing the banking industry. Have a look. Guest of course shareholders do wish to have a dividend. This is normal. They allocate capital to the bank. We use the capital to put in the bank. And they want to be rewarded if it is possible. The recommendation made by the ecb has been broadly well understood at springtime. There was a high level of uncertainty. Nobody knew exactly what was going to happen. As a bigif it came negative surprise, it was part of the negative news out of the covid crisis. Its notlarge extent, positive, they are not happy. But most of them have understood. You see what i mean. The question is a decision which is going to be made by the ecb, the recommendation that we will get in december. I think today, we are still in difficult times. Lets be clear, there is a second wave of contagion everywhere in europe and the world. There are difficulties. The lockdown is still there. And the reopening of the business is moving forward, but there are still many difficulties. So, i think theres still a level of difficulties. But i think there is more certainty. We understand better what is going to happen. We understand better the risk ahead. We understand better the challenges we have, and the dialogue with the supervisor is of all these questions. So i hope that this understanding will help the decisionmaking by the ecb about the recommendations they will give in december. Do markets left do markets have to be less exuberant, given we are not exactly sure when a good chunk of the population will be vaccinated . Jean yes. Well, you know, once more on the vaccine, i think there is light at the end of the tunnel. Im very confident scientists are developing vaccines, which are going to help a lot of people to go through this virus crisis. So, there will be one. Now, we know there are many questions about protection, about distribution, about the impact, and we should not expect a quick, immediate impact. It will take some time. But at least there is a light. And thats what is very important. I think this is well understood by the markets. Haidi that was bnp chairman Jean Lemierre speaking exclusively to bloomberg. Coming up next, falling short. Why china is now all but certain not to meet its purchase commitments under the phase one trade deal. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. With chinas purchases of u. S. Goods under the phase one trade deal slowed to last month, leaving them well short of the stated goal. Stephen engle joins us now from hong kong. What does the data show us . Stephen of course didnt like this can have fits and starts, depending on demand. But after septembers big surge of china buying u. S. Goods, were seeing, according to bloomberg data and customs data from china, that the number dropped off considerably. Under the phase one trade deal, china pledged to by about 172 billion worth of goods from the u. S. For the full calendar year. Right . So far, by the end of october they had purchased just 75. 5 billion of those manufactured goods and Agricultural Products like soybeans, as well as Energy Products. So that means for november and december, they will need to surpass that amount already year to date. They would have to do 95 billion more of purchases by the end of december to meet their stated and signed goal under phase one trade deal. October,rop we saw in nearly a 60 drop in crude Oil Purchases from the u. S. By china. So, energy really dropped off. In fact, purchases of Energy Products are only about 25 of their stated target for the full year under the trade deal. Energy is a sore spot. However, if you look on the agricultural side, we are seeing soybean shipments, a bit of an anomaly, up more than 190 from september. Big, bulk purchases there. Twoan, buying one or aircraft can make a difference. Also integrated circuits were up 20 . But there is a lot of uncertainty on the trade front. Obviously with a new administration very likely coming in in a couple months time. David he has been busy traveling. What are the chinese trying to do . Stephen a lot of people are trying to figure out where the geopolitics are going to play in the biden demonstration. Trump is still making plays out here. The National Security advisor was out here more recently visiting allies like japan as well as vietnam and other places. But then the foreign minister of china, taking this opportunity to go to japan and to go to south korea. He just wrapped up a meeting with his counterpart in seoul where they signed a 10 point agreement on pandemic sharing information and other issues, as well as may be creating some kind of travel bubble, similar agreements, or a common understandings with japan. However, there are longstanding legacy issues with japan. Stephen engle there. Lets get you the latest business flash headlines. Foxconn is said to be shifting production of ipads from china to vietnam to alleviate any trade threats under the next u. S. Administration. Foxconn is Building Assembly lines at a plant in northern vietnam, which will come online in the first half of next year. Vietnam, india and mexico have all benefited from electronic suppliers moving and shifting out of the chinese mainland. Disney is to cut another 4000 jobs. Theme parks continue to hemorrhage money. Disney parks in california remain shut overlapped on measures that have lost more than 1 billion loss quarter. Glove of malaysias top the company has been ordered to close 28 of its factories after more than 1000 covid19 cases were found at its facilities near kuala lumpur. That is more than half of the daily numbers for the entire country. Most of the cases have been found in dormitories that house workers. Coming up, we are talking oil market, where we go. That is coming up next. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need