Will try to fill in his space as he expresses his culinary abilities. Francine we will get clarification on what he is working on. Lets get to the bloomberg first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. Ritika good morning. S p global is on the verge of a giant deal in the Financial Information industry. Bloomberg has learned that the company is in advanced talks to for 44s markets billion. An agreement could be announced as soon as today. It would be the second biggest deal of the year. President trumps coronavirus taskforces propping promising a rapid rollout of the vaccine to 2 million americans i the end of the year. The Surgeon General expects that most americans will have access by early in the second quarter. He says the government hopes to quickly ok requests from two drugmakers for emergency approval of their vaccines. A group of opecplus ministers could reach an agreement on whether to delay januarys oil a fullincrease, before meeting of the cartel and its allies today. Bloomberg learned that the uae and kazakhstan opposed a proposal to maintain the current cuts. In the u. K. , government officials believe a brexit deal could be done within days. They say the key is to work in good faith on what the u. K. Sees as the last big optical, fishing rights. Dominic raab called the e. U. To recognize that regaining control over british waters is a question of serenity for the u. K. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine thank you so much. The focus is firmly on oil, also on whats going on with the pound given brexit negotiations. One day we are doing fine in brexit, the other, fishing, we cannot agree on who needs to fish what. Today, a bit of optimism creeping in, usc sterling. It is the last day of the month with this recordbreaking rally of Global Equity markets, oil extending on signs of discord on opec plus minister, and still in portuguese, 10 year yields watch. Nearing zero. They still havent touched zero. Lisa talking about the fisheries, it seems like everything is backandforth when it comes to brexit. With the s p 500, it is not backandforth. You cannot keep a good market down. It is down just. 4 after being down much more earlier after a recordbreaking rally for financial, energy shares, for the month of november. Skip over oil, i will say 10 year yields also initially were falling, now rising just slightly, 0. 84 . Still notable that those yields have not increased in tandem with a rally that we have seen in equities. Copper i wanted to point out that copper is at the highest level. Since 2013, this is both on an inflationary but but also on a bet at the Biden Cabinet will put a greater emphasis on green technologies, which will increase investment in metals such as copper. Francine lisa, oil falling as opecplus numbers failed to reach consensus. The discord raised tensions about a crucial meeting later today. Joining us is javier blas. This seems like they are shooting themselves in the foot. If they dont have an agreement and then we have a big glut, a big surplus in the market. Is it politics above common sense . Absolutely right. Opec is always risk it has done a fantastic job on recovering the oil market, bringing a lot of volume out of the market. Now they need to decide whether a production increase is scheduled for the first of january goes again or not. Call witha conference the oil ministers, that ended without an agreement, but lets not forget that the real meeting happens today from 2 00 p. M. , 1 00 p. M. London, 8 00 a. M. In new york. That is the real activity when diplomacy is going to happen. We have a single day of meetings on tuesday when all of the countries known in that group will become a part of that conversation. So there is a lot of fostering going into the meeting, but i expect that opec will come with a final agreement within the next 48 hours. Francine how will they find this cohesion . Will it be saudi arabia trying to pull all sides together . I know there are some splits in countries that are in the past allies. Toier probably it is going require a bit of opec diplomacy. We are not going to probably get the clean deal that the market was looking at only a week ago. There was a three month delay. It would be more complicated. Different proposals delegate their reaction of the market, but it seems there is enough selfinterest of everyone within opec. They know what the rate of value is because the pandemic has not ended, the vaccines have not yet there is a lot of lockdown. Where there are usually open conferences. It is in lockdown. They are restructuring a lot of activities around the hotels, especially ended today. There is a lot of selfinterest to find some kind of compromise over the next 48 hours. Lisa where are the lines here . Where are the alliances . Who wants the opec cuts that have been proposed, and who is against them . Javier interestingly, in saudi arabia, the different counts through the year are very much aligned at this time, and that is why they think a deal will happen. You have the two most powerful members of the opecplus Alliance Together in seeking a delay. The delay . Iving kazakhstan,ve iraq, and you have the united arab emirates, although the uae is saying that is not its official position, although it is acting as a broken element. So the saudis need to work on those three holdouts and try to convince them that the best outcome for everyone is for the delay. I would expect that will not lean heavily and kazakhstan to try to push them into an agreement, and i suppose that saudi arabia is working the phones and talking to iraqis, and abu dhabi come to make sure that they also supported deal. But the important thing is that and sicko to build on what youre saying, some headline lisa to build on what youre saying, some headlines he has no plans to talk with the saudis ahead of the opecplus meeting. However, he also said that the opecplus differences now are less serious than in the spring, this coming from vladimir putin, the president of russia. The question Going Forward what is the market response . We are seeing Oil Prices Decline on the lack of agreement ahead of the summit between opecplus meetings and members. What do you expect if they do come to an output cut agreement . Happens to the price of oil . If they delay the production increase, rather than increasing production on the first of january, the first of april, that is definitely bullish for the market. A lot of that was pricing. If the production happens as planned from the first of january, that is obviously we can go a few dollars down from current prices, from about 47 a barrel. Goldman sachs has put a note to clients a few hours ago saying that potentially oil loses about five dollars if this meeting ends with no deal. But that will still keep oil above 40. Having that warning that you risk i think it will concentrate the minds of every opec minister to try to find some diplomacy and some kind of agreement. Concentrated minds. Always a good thing to focus on. Javier bloss our chief energy correspondent. Up next, we talk oil, inflation, pound. With the one capital head of research. This is bloomberg. Lisa this is bloomberg surveillance. Im Lisa Abramowicz filling in for tom keene. Francine lacqua is in london. There is a question in december after a recordbreaking november, how do we reach an Inflection Point with the rotation encyclicals away from big tex . . From big tech joining us now is themos fiotakis, glenn Point Capital head of research. Can you give us a sense of what you are seeing right now when you look at this incredible rotation, these records printed across the board globally on riskier assets on the heels of a number of positive vaccine developments . Are you buying this rally, or do you think this is a head fake yet again . That theo, i think rally is very likely to extend, and for the very simple reason that the markets used to be based used to be bifurcated. You had companies that had enormous structural stories, growing really fast. The speculative tech companies, whether that is your mega caps like microsoft, amazon, or the chinese equivalents like alibaba, etc. On the other hand, you have cyclical assets reporting. Most of the emerging markets come all the way to airlines, hotels, because of the coronavirus, or even banks come etc. Have beenvaccine may more priced in some sectors than others, like banks, for instance, a vast majority of cyclical assets, this thing is still underpriced. We still can see airlines or atels or hospitality or number of cyclical sectors moving up 20 to 30 . When you have breaks in the market, you can build very diversified portfolios and accommodate inflows and the move can extend. On top of that, the fact that we think at glen point, in our estimates and our analysis, the reopen is going to be quicker and more rapid than the market expects, then you are pretty much looking at the beginning of next year, the point where the economy will be accelerating really fast, and in these periods you cannot afford not to own risky assets. In particular i would say emerging markets are likely to wee performance of the likes have not seen in five or six years. We already have seen a pretty impressive scene for emerging markets. Msci had its best month if you consider we will continue the rally. Since march 2016 at the highest level since 2018 come how much higher could we potentially go . How much more is there to the emerging markets rally . We are not even scratching the surface. I would give you example. Take a mainstream stock like alibaba. You have years of Revenue Growth expansion, yet we are only we are not that much higher than 2017 levels where the trade war uncertainty started. And definitely we are lower than where the counterparties are, despite that this is a more profitable the company is facing a faster growing economy. So the risk is there. Equities, bonds, credits in emerging markets. There is a big risk premium. We have seen five years of post five years of capital inflows drying up. Capital inflows are coming back on come and you are seeing a structurally better set up. It is not Just Recovery from the coronavirus, which is ahead of us. It is also the fact that these guys are facing now a much more regular conduct with the united seeing the transition of leadership. Saysine Goldman Sachs when we have a vaccine we will see pretty strong growth. What does that do to your inflation forecast and what does that do to Monetary Policy . Themos yes, i read that note. Goldman has done a phenomenal job this year with forecasting. I thoroughly buy that view, and i think that they are being conservative because in our view, once you start vaccinating the more sensitive groups, you are probably going to be reopening a lot faster. And this pentup demand i think that them trying to be ahead of consensus, they are being even a little bit conservative. What does it do to the inflation forecast . Look, francine, you are going to have a basis that is going to be high. What was set shortterm with the opec meeting etc. , it is more likely than not that oil in the middle or late part of next year thanbe 10 to 20 higher it is now. That would create a headline inflation balance sometime next year. However, i really, really dont see how core inflation is set to pick up in a meaningful way for a long period of time. And it is not just the slack in the economy, which needs to be reduced that is going to take some time. It is not just the fact that as opposed to now, a couple of years from now, you know, fiscal, monetary set up is not going to be necessarily as it has been so far, but it is also the composition of inflation and inflation drivers globally which makes it very hard to go to inflation levels much higher than we used to see in the been part of the previous cycle. Francine once we see a bit of thattion, an inflation holds will the markets freak out . Themos that is a good question. I think that a lot of it will be depending on the fed. And this is a fed that has made a major mistake in their communication policy. From the time that chair powell was in charge to now. It means that their commitment is true. If you look at the forecast, they are going to have very low rates and very easy policy, well into this inflation rise that youre talking about. Which in their forecast is also coming a lot faster than i think it is going to happen. I think the market is going to look through an inflation of if the inflation uptick fed stays true to its word. Lisa we will find out possibly later this month when they do meet again to discuss Monetary Policy. Thank you for joining us, to most ceeo talk us they most ceeo talk us themos fiotakis. Longer Duration Bonds and their upcoming meeting in december numbing up in the next hour, carl weinberg, highfrequency economist ef i im sure he will weigh in on what the fed should and would do. From new and london from new york and london, this is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. There could be another takeover in what has been a record year for deals in the semiconductor industry. Taiwans global is in advanced talks to buy germanys new tronics for 45 billion. Corner up 48 this this quarter for citroen next. China is overhauling rules that will govern the sin tech industry. They in the early stages of changes. A completetemplating exit from Retail Banking in the u. S. It would be part of its restructuring aimed at boosting profits in the u. S. And europe. Bloomberg has learned that recommendations are expected to be presented to hsbc as soon this week. The bank makes almost all of its profit in asia. That is your latest in bird. Francine . Lisa thank you so much. We are looking at markets that are cooling a little bit after the recordbreaking month and a lot of different indices. The s p, to give you a sense, is down. 4 now to 36. 20. Just to give you a sense, it is up more than 11 so far this month. Im looking at crude, given the fact that we have the opec bus confab today. Confab today. Us its adding to francine im looking at european stocks pretty much steady, you saw that rotation, stocks at an alltime high showing slight reversal with Technology Company holding firm. Thanks and Energy Producers broadly lower. You are right, it is all about opecplus and pound. We could have a deal, but then one day we do and the next day we are more down. Downbeat about the prospects of that. Coming up, we talk about brexit, and this is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Mime Francine Lacqua in london. Lisa abramowicz is in new york. Negotiators on the u. K. Side believe a deal can be reached in days, but fishing rights remain part of the discussion. The rutter, for International Audience and people in the u. K. Who are confused about what will be negotiated, are we looking at only a skinny deal, or could we have a more comprehensive deal between the u. K. And the e. U. . Jill it will be a comprehensive deal in terms of coverage. It is about trade, about , aviation, transport, other things in that. In that sense it would be quite wideranging, but in terms of what we used to call a deal with the e. U. That implies good Market Access to the e. U. In return for a lot of u. K. Regulatory alignment with the e. U. , that is something that Big Government has not been that this government has not been interested in. It says it wants the free trade deals that the e. U. Has done with the more distant countries like canada and japan. We are looking at the skinny end the deal, but it might francine what happens to finance . Have a great story that is getting a bit of a bellows. You can read it on our website or the bloomberg terminal. A whats that happens to finance if a deal is unlikely . As part of the political declaration last year, it was agreed that both sides were trying to give equivalent decisions in the summer that did not happen. That was going to be a decision on whether u. K. Firms could continue to passport into the e. U. And vice versa. The u. K. Has made a decision on the e. U. , the chancellor of the exchequer, treasury secretary, finance minister made his decision to give e. U. Firms access a couple of weeks back with the waiting on that decision from the e. U. It technically is separate from all these trade negotiations, but i think looking at the way in which the e. U. Has downplayed in the past, would say that actually if there is no trade deal, the Financial Services equivalent decisions coming on a quicktime table. What the u. K. Did want was to look and see whether a mechanism was saying that is a deeper corporation, and one of the things that people like that it can be unilaterally withdrawn with 30 days notice. A great state for building businesses on the backdrop that the u. K. Floated some ideas for much more cooperation, longer time period, but also we expect to see that in any sort of deal. Lisa francine knows this better than anyone people are leaving the u. K. , people are leaving london. Big banks are shifting outside the operation outside the nation to be in operation with the e. U. Do we have a sense of the financial hit to the united kingdom, and will be as a result of these shifts . Know thatnt think we yet. At the moment there has been some that have moved and some assets moved, but it has not been enormous yet. One of the questions is does one of the e. U. Capitals managed to build up, or is it a significant Financial Center over time . I think the key thing, youre quite right. We talk a lot about impact on different firms. I think these big Financial Services firms many of them started to move last year, when we kept on marching up the hill and down again about whether there would be a no deal exit last year. So i think a lot of them have moved already. They started to make moving some assets, some people so far. Not as big a move yet, but to ensure that they are able to get service there to their european customers. I think one of their interesting things is those firms they will continue, take a bit of extra cost, but they will manage to have continuity. The big loser is the british economy, both in terms of gdp but also the Financial Services sector. Economy is atish big contributor to tax