The 1. 20 mark. We will talk about that in just a moment. We are basically flat. Brent crude, which has soared during the month as well, what and what is happening very ,arefully with that opec story trading 47. 68. In terms of the german bund market today, we are seeing a little bit of movement, but not much. That kind of captures the story of the last month, doesnt it . Not Much Movement in the bond market, lots of movement elsewhere in risk assets. This kind of sums it up, the one month of the stoxx 600. For some markets, many markets here in europe, smaller markets were up by over 20 . Alix back to the main news with the vaccine because it is monday, so we obviously have vaccine news. Moderna is requesting clearance for its vaccine in the u. S. And europe today after analysis showed it was 94 point 1 effective in preventing covid19. Moderna Ceo Stephane Bancel will be speaking to us later. He earlier said that we have millions of doses ready. We will have more and more every couple of days. Joining us with more is bloombergs michelle cortez. The market is taking this very much in stride. The recovery stocks are lower on the day. What is the outstanding question that you have right now concerning the modern a vaccine the Moderna Vaccine . Michelle the question is how quickly will it be able to be administered, and home any people are going to be able to get it right away. We know that every state is going to get a certain allotment of these vaccines, and they will be able to distribute it how they see fit, but of course, it is a very controversial topic. Do you want to prevent your protect your Health Care Workers first . Do you need to get your teachers protected, fire and police . Who is going to get protected, and how can we do it in the most efficient way so that we can get the virus itself under control and not just protecting people unilaterally . Guy how quickly, if it is approved on the 17th, does it start to get rolled out . Michelle they have said they are going to start rolling this out within 24 hours. We know that the work that has been done ahead of time has been just as remarkable as the science when it comes to the vaccine. They started producing this product months ago, so that is why we have 20 million doses already available. If they know they are going to have to roll it out, there are plans in place to actually deliver the vaccine to the administrators. They are going to have to truck across the country. All of those pieces are already in place, and they were in place before we knew whether or not this vaccine was even going to work. Guy ok. Thank you very much, indeed alix much, indeed. Alix stay with us. We will speak to Stephane Bancel coming up at 11 30 a. M. In new york, 4 30 london. Joining us is mimi rushton, barclays cohead of global fx bloombergs, and laura cooper. We have seen huge gains, particularly here in europe. Laura absolutely. It has been quite an exceptional month, notably in europe. The fact that we are seeing really doubledigit gains for the month, this is all on the back of that vaccine euphoria that we saw earlier in the month fixed in with some political clarity on the back of the u. S. Election. I think for markets going forward, really the question remains of can we sustain this moment them through year end, or is it a case of the risk reward payoffs have clearly shifted, and it could be the case that equities have frontrunner a lot of those yearend gains we would normally see. Instead we are lightly to go back to this competing narrative of this vaccine progress against the nearterm challenges, as clearly, the virus is not yet under control in a number of parts of the world. Alix mimi, is it going to be the same conversation when it comes to the fx market . The result has been the weaker dollar. Absolutely. Predominantly it has resulted in this dollar lower trade. Our clients have told us this is very much the consensus trade they are thinking about the moment, and whether or not that dollar weakness progresses through december and into 2021 will be exactly as laura described, a balancing of the shortterm effects around the virus and the impact it is having on the economy, but also looking through to of the more positive effects that the vaccine hopefully will bring. Guy how big a problem is this going to be in the short term for certain Central Banks . Philip lane got very agitated when we got up to 1. 20. We are now kind of at those similar sort of numbers. Do you think as maybe this trade continues out of november into december that we see similar reactions . Mimi it is interesting because most central bankers really want the market to operate freely within its own rights, and often, central bankers will be more concerned about the speed of a move rather than necessarily the outright level. When you are looking at eurodollar in particular, theres a number of factors at play. Remember that when you look at euro sterling, for example, it has shifted to adjust to some of that. When you look at the euro trade weight, actually it is not at the same levels of where philip lane last made his comments. That does not mean he wont necessarily make them again, but we are in a different environment now, and the justman and the timing we have had to get to this level has been more protracted. Alix and it has come in tandem with a lot of money coming into european at. A recordbreaking month, apparently. 1. 7 trillion for november into european equities. A lot of it going into greece, spain, banks, industrials, energy even. You definitely sound a lot more skeptical. Do you think that the money comes out, or it just kind of doesnt flow in anymore . Laura i still think there is upside traction to be had in terms of european equities that are clearly leveraged more toward that economic reopening trade. I just think it is the pace of gains that we have seen are likely unsustainable. Why we look at the composition, like you mentioned, it has been autos, banks, insurance sectors that are clearly undervalued. So if we do have these brighter 2021 growth prospects, those are supportive for this sectoral rotation. Clearly there is some traction there. We also have the ecb likely easing policy further in december. We do have the support of fiscal stimulus backdrop potentially. The ecb is alluding to the fact that they could remove this de facto cap on bank dividends, so that clearly is another tailwind. It is just the case of really, i dont think the moment and we have seen. Is. Something that can be sustained. We have seen is something that can be sustained. To it doesnt seem to want go below 20 on either side of the atlantic. What is the market worried about here . What are the big risks that the market potential he still sees here . We are going to be talking vaccines in a few minutes, how big a problem that could be if it doesnt get rolled out properly. What does it take to get the vix below 20 . Laura i think the fact that we are still seeing volatility elevated means we are still seeing the pace of virus cases continue to accelerate in the u. S. , so that is clearly a challenge to the nearterm growth outlook. We also have the potential fiscal stimulus lapse, whether that begins to actually fade into the consumer. The consumer has remained relatively resilient so far. We had elevated savings rates, resilient balance sheets, but if we start to see that feed into the economic data, it starts to roll over, clearly that is going to be a risk, as it would focus markets back to those nearterm challenges that the fed has alluded to. Given these challenging months ahead, it would kind of take away from the vix vaccine progress that has driven a lot of this euphoria. Again, there is the question of the deployment of vaccines. It is one thing to price in brighter 2021 growth prospects, but it is quite another in terms of the actual distribution and the efficacy around the timely deployment of that. Alix mimi, how does that play into your world . Is the euro still a risk on currency and the dollar still risk off . Is it that simple, that we are going to be taking that template . On one second, i am going to throw that to mimi. Mimi im not sure it is that straightforward in terms of g10 and a eurodollar perspective. I think it is much more clearcut in em, and certainly our clients are thinking very carefully about how that vaccine deployment is going to play out and how relative economies are going to perform in terms of then thinking about how they will invest their assets, and therefore that will play into fx. But in g10, it is definitely not that straightforward. You could potentially see some resumption of the dollar because lets not forget that if there is growth more globally, the u. S. Is set to benefit from that cigna lee as well from that significantly as well. Guy what do you think the catalyst could be . Difficult one to say at the moment. I think it is by far the biggest thing on our clients minds. Is this consensus trend really going to take hold, and we will see a dollar downtrend which sets the dollar into a new paradigm . Friendly, we havent seen for a long period of time. Or will get the move substantially to some of the topics you were discussing with laura earlier . That i think is will he what we will see over the next four to five weeks, but balancing these shortterm effects around the real macroeconomic impact of what is happening as a consequence of the virus now is very difficult away very difficult to weigh, and that is what the market is grappling with. Alix thank you bloombergs laura cooper. Mimi rushton of barclays, youre going to be sticking with us. This is bloomberg. Alix live from new york, i am alix steel, with guy johnson in new york in london. U. K. Foreign secretary dominic raab saying a trade deal could be reached in days if both sides continue working in good faith. Joining us on the phone is bloombergs edward evans. I feel like i literally have said that sentence 75 times. Why is this time different . Edward it may not be different, is the short answer. I think both the u. K. Side and the eu side say they can get to a deal here. The key point is the second part of that sentence, which is about how the other side behaves. Really, what youre seeing now is the deadline is focusing minds. Britain leaves the eu Single Market on december 31. A deal needs to be ratified and signed off. We are getting to that point now. Ist youre seeing really decisions are having to be taken on things like a level competitive playing field, how any treaty will be enforced, and access to u. K. Fishing waters. These are issues that have dug the talks since back in march, and only now are we beginning to see some signs of actual progress. Whether that is enough to get us to a deal in time is something altogether different. Guy this time next week we may be having the same conversation, but we will have an eu summit in front of us, and the clock will have ticked a little further. Is your sense of the situation that that eu summit is effectively the end of the road for this . I think if there isnt a deal at this point, you would expect eu memory states to start looking at contingency plans very carefully. Angela merkel suggesting that some eu Member States were onatient to get started those already, you can see the anticipation on the eu side is wearing thin. That said, it is in no sides interest to walk away from this negotiation early when there is any prospect of a deal being reached. So it is quite possible that negotiators will go on right down to the very end. That summit could, is in a , looked like ad deadline. Ratify, if possible. The eu could even be sitting on december 28 to ratify it. That is how close this is just coming down to the wire. Guy tomorrow is december, so i guess we are getting to close. Thanks very much, indeed. Bloomberg said evans updating us bloombergs ed evans updating us. Still with us is mimi rushton of barclays. If i take a look at the pound right now, i am trying to balance out what is going on with shortened rates, whether or not the negative pricing that is still in shortened rates is what is Still Holding the pound back. If we were to see any kind of a deal, and we were to see maybe those shortened rates pricing back to zero, what is the upside in the pound . A clearearly there is correlation between shortened rates and fx vol, and for example, sterling dollar. However, that is not something that is holding it back. It is definitely around the clarification and knowing the certainty of what is going to come from this brexit discussion. Completedsort of gets , there is an asymmetry that currently exists around the pound. To the extent there is a deal, even if it is a very thin deal, our trade is may be there would be 2 to 3 appreciation in the pound. There is already some sentiment baked in, but to the downside, it is incredibly disappointing if it is incredible disappointing, you might see a downturn of 5 to 7 . That asymmetry is really causing that conundrum as to whether there is Something Holding the pound back, and clearly brexit is one of the biggest topics around that. Alix is it binary . Is there ever a day where we know the interto that question, that this is what we have to price out . Greatit is a really question. Ultimately i will be guided by how this is somehow concluded. The reality is very closely upon us now. As of january 1, our corporate clientside are going to have to deal with the reality of what this new normal will look like, so the market will have to adjust to the way in which we see the economy perform and our clients really having to deal with the effects of the new rules, whatever those may look like. On what would be the effect the euro of a no deal . Mimi it is interesting because really, this has always felt ,ike more of a sterling trade but your question alludes to something important, in that clearly there is an effect on the european economy as well. It is interesting speaking to our clients on both sides of the channel that our clients in europe will feel this is much as the clients and the u. K. I do think at the moment, it stands for sterling to lose momentum more so than the euro. I dont see that this creates a huge mount of euro weakness. Alix so based on that also, i wonder how we then wrap in things like stimulus out of either europe or the u. K. When we get money, when things went up reopening. When does the macro come into play . Mimi i think the macro is very much already baked in come up part of the reason why youre not seeing more potential extended effects as a result of a no deal brexit. Covid has overtaken brexit as the principal reason for concern. The reason the waters are somewhat muddy now is because we have had so much positive vaccine news, and now brexit becomes the pinnacle of the issue that we are still trying to resolve. Theres no doubt that theres a huge amount already baked in around the potential performance of both europe and the u. K. As they overcome the vaccine effects. We talked earlier about the fact that there is still a lot of pain potentially still to come, and i think that will weigh quite heavily going into 2021. Do the most beaten up countries bounceback the most . The u. K. s like it has suffered more than most. It has an economy highly driven by services, and a lot of hospitality. It therefore has suffered significantly. If we get a vaccine, how much momentum do we see coming back as a result of that . Does that get priced into fx . It has been priced into stocks to a certain degree. Mimi lets not forget that prior to the referendum in 2016, fair value sterling was around 1. 45 in sterling dollar terms, that we are far away from that at the moment. Consensus is that sterling value assets, we are waiting for some sort of brexit resolution to see the u. K. Investable again. Also remember that the pound has for a very long time been a safe haven currency, and that requires certainty and the stability of rule of law, provided you have those things come back to the four. It means that it becomes a much more attractive asset for our clients to potentially hold, and i think those things are important. But you mentioned as well the vaccine. The potential vaccine dissed or beaten into the u. K. Looks very promising, and as a consequence, that will be something investors take into consideration as well. Alix mimi, thanks a lot. Cohead ofon, barclays Global Ethics distribution. Global fx distribution. This is bloomberg. Ritika its time for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories and news right now. Doordash hopes to raise as much is 2. 8 billion dollars in an ipo. The largest u. S. Food Delivery Service plans on being part of an end of the year listing rush. Doordash says it plans to sell at 75 to 85res each. Zoom reports after the closing bell, one of the stocks that defined 2020 on wall street. Tolysts expect a gain soaring growth, but less than certain prospects for next year. Shares of clean energy trucking stocks at nicola are plunging today. General motors has scrapped a on anive deal to join electric pickup truck. Agreementnonbinding for gm to supply technology. Plus, gm wont be taking an equity stake in nikola. That is your latest business flash. Guy thank you very much, indeed. European markets are about to close. It has been an epic month. The month of november is likely to turn out to be a record. We are up significantly. Peripheral markets are up over 20 . That has fed through into the elevated level we are currently seeing on the euro. Today, despite it being a monday and despite getting some vaccine news, we are fairly flat. Alix flat on the day, and the dollar actually off the lows of the session, shooting higher there. That it is not the typical vaccine monday. Guy i think the dollar shooting higher maybe to do with the vix. Wonder not about to come up moderna about to come up. On the speak to the ceo authorization of its covid vaccine. This is bloomberg. Uy we are nearly done november nearly over. What a month it has been for european equities. Today we are going out with a whimper. Normally on a monday we get vaccine news, stocks shoot higher. That is been the narrative over last few weeks. People getting more used to the story. Today we are drifting sideways. Just had a fixing of the dollar. We see upside in the bloomberg dollar index. What a 30 days it has been. What a month. Up 6. 57 for the stoxx 600. The real gains, this is when the pfizer news came out. Later we get the moderna news. This is been the epic rotation period. Let me show you the markets around europe. 30 days have been interesting. Let me tell you that over the last few months, over last month we have seen major gains in these markets. Asthma treated and the ftse mib and markets like that we have seen real gains coming through. Of euro has gained just shy 1. 20. Brent has put a rocket under the story surrounding the energy sector, and we have seen very Little Movement in the bu nds, which is fascinating. The bond market has been quiet, which is causing concern. We have alo en