Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240703 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg July 3, 2024

Posted one of its worst quarters relative to the s p in over a decade. Caroline we will take the pulse of the ipo market as rubrics ipo filing Shows Growing revenue but still losses. We are having the worst day in about a month on the key benchmarks. Tech under pressure. We see once again a fear of the fact that the u. S. Economy is too strong. The Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates as anticipated the Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates as anticipated. More frothy your names we will see a pullback in some of the more frothier names. Bitcoin under pressure. We see the inflows dial back from the crucial spot etfs. There is one stock you are watching. Ed tesla deliveries missed expectations. Thats an understatement. Deliveries, 388,000 in the quarter gone. The biggest myths against bloomberg consensus on record. Where did we get this analysis wrong . The stock is down around 5 in the session. Premarket had fallen as much as 7 . What are the factors that are happening here . I want to bring in Stephanie Valdez streaty at cox automotive. Tesla says this is supplyside related. Three factors. They diverted shipment because of the situation in the red sea, paused production in berlin because of what they call an arson attack, and relaunched a model in fremont that impacted the production run. Why did that impact deliveries to this extent . Stephanie thank you so much. Tesla is the news today. We forecasted we will see decline in q1 for tesla. If you look at they have two models, the y and the s carrying them forward but no big products recently. Hopefully with the roadster in 2026 that will help them. New product really drives sales. For tesla they are in the in between wave that they mentioned where they had highvolume products and awaiting to launch this new one that will be more affordable, which the industry really needs. Tesla has a lot of work ahead of it. When they have the Earnings Call it will be important for them to really lay out what the plan is to execute on that. Caroline love how youre going on the demand side of the equation. You focus predominately on the u. S. We talk a lot about some of the competition coming from chinese makers. D. C. Shall me you see a new ev were on the first day of sales it looks as though bookings are north of 90,000. When you look at the u. S. Demandside how much is the competition an issue forward . Was it really the lack of a new product that is the driver here . Stephanie i think it is the competition. Last year was a record year. This quarter we are expecting 15 yearoveryear. Tesla we are expecting a 3. 2 yearoveryear growth. There is some other brands that will see significant increase in q1. The results will come in and the next week so we will have that for the report. Some of the other products that will be popular are creating more competition for tesla. I think that will continue. Tesla is having to compete with these other brands that are offering different styling, product, range, and competing with the tesla model. That will be a driving factor for tesla going forward. Ed i will recap the numbers. Teslas First Quarter deliveries were 386,810. The estimate was 449,000. I was one of the people that leased the model y and the penultimate day of the quarter. I did so because the incentives on offer from the federal tax credit and those that tesla did of its own accord which is too good to pass up. Then on april 1, tesla raised prices. They said they were going to do that. What got me thinking that we have the First Quarter number print is, is there market anymore and this country for a 40,000 to 50,000 ev . It seems like that is gone and everyone is waiting for the 25,000 ev to finally materialize. Stephanie you hit on it. If you think about ev adoption, Research Shows price is one of the Major Barriers with infrastructure. At the end of february the average ev was 52,000. If you look at back two years ago the price was about 70,000. Its expensive. Affordability is key to adoption. We will need more of those vehicles that are at that are at different price points. As we see more used evs into the market that might accommodate some of that price point here. Ed rivian beat expectations of production and deliveries, although this set the bar low for the quarter. What do you make of a name like rivian . They offer the box eeev americans love. They like big cars but it seems like a niche player. Stephanie any of these new entrants into the market are struggling with cash, trying to build up their brand. We dont have any ice vehicle to support that. The unveiling of the r2 created a lot of energy for the brand and it will be key if they are going to execute on that. The are2 r2 will be critical for more affordable volumes and being able to turn a profit over the longterm. Rivian is on a good path. R2 helped ignite some of that excitement about the brand. Caroline we talk about the incentives offered from a federal perspective. The biggest competition is a hybrid. We are still worried about infrastructure. Ed great question. Stephanie we will continue to see if gas hybrids increase in sale. If you think about a gas hybrid there is nothing different. Is the same experience as driving an ice vehicle. You have to worry about charging or infrastructure. Its a good gateway as we try to navigate to full electrification. We will probably see more plugin hybrids as well since that is a good gateway as well. Ed is policy support working in this country . Stephanie i think it is. You think about the incentives. 7,500. With the changes in the regulation it has helped with adoption. One of the things that changed with the pointofpurchase now you get that 7,500, thats also attractive. I think the incentives are confusing and some consumers are not aware of them. Its confusing for what is eligible and what isnt. There needs to be more education around evs, around incentives, the value of an ev. What is it like to drive in ev . The total cost of operation as well. We have a lot of work ahead. In january, whatever key messages was for ev, it will be a year or more. We will see more bumps. We will see more incentives, more price cuts, but also the industry build more sales muscle and sell these evs to the next wave of adoption. Caroline more transparency please. Stephanie valdez streaty, thank you so much. Coming up, erika klauer will be joining us. We will deep dive on whats happening in the broader markets today with the big chip selloff. Ed you mentioned xiomi. By close of play on friday having unveiled this new ev, they had 89,000 orders. 90,000. Im sure it is bigger now. Really curiously theres a lot of evidence that in the Chinese Market consumers were putting down the refundable deposit and then canceling just for the prestige of saying i ordered a xiami and then did not follow through with it. This is bloomberg technology. So, what are you thinking . Im thinking. speaking to self about our honeymoon. What about africa . Safari . Hot air balloon ride . Swim with elephants . Wait, can we afford a safari . Great question. Like everything, it takes a little planning. Or, put the money towards a downpayment. On a ranch. In montana. With horses lets take a look at those scenarios. J. P. Morgan Wealth Management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. When youre planning for it all. The answer is j. P. Morgan Wealth Management. Ed we took another bite out of the apple in the First Quarter. Shears coming up the air force quarterly performance relative to the s p 500 index in over a decade, with a comedy raising within 300 billion in market value in 2024. The 12 drop since the start of the year is paying offer shortsellers, incentive to unwind their bets. Now could be the time to buy the dip. Thats according to Technical Analyst to argue apple is flirting with levels where bottom feeding could come soon. Apple looking cheap to some of the other mega cap tech names on a relative term. The key support level is 106 25 per share. Will that be enough to entice you dip buyers. If you are, hit me up on x, social media, you know me. Caroline lets go broader than apple and see whats been helping meet the charge on the foreign benchmark and what is putting away a little bit. Erika klauer is with us. Welcome back to the show. While apple has been having some tough times lets focus on the Super Micro Computer up 240 . Nvidia up 79 percent. You are a holder of chip names. People have questioned how far they have run. Do they have further to go . Erika we always take a longer term view and that remains very constructive. We looked over three to five years and we see extraordinary opportunities for penetration of ai. That is broadening out in its applicability in the district. We are still very constructive. Caroline does that mean you take money off the table from the winners we have seen, the nvidias i have mentioned and into Industry Groups of benefit from ai or do you have to do both . Erika you have to do both. There are the core experts in compute led by nvidia which i believe is a core holding to own for a long time, and also advanced micro devices. The existence of parallel computer, accelerated compute is creating opportunities throughout the various industries. Whether it is industry, other Semiconductor Companies, health care. We are looking at a broadbased of opportunities for these companies to address. Ed its been interesting for probably two years speaking with investors who are basically ripping off the paneling of a server design and learning whats going into it. Now a name like macron is starting to get credit at gtc. He was slapping michael dell on the back and saying if you need a server, this is the guy. Is that your kind of approach . How the compute gets built in its entirety and then work out the component providers and invest in those . Erika this is such a great question. On the one hand the very essence of compute, how its done has changed. The demand for memory. The demand created for disturbing power, generating power, dealing with power, thermal envelopes are all changing and thats creating extraordinary opportunities on the infrastructure side of the business that we are very interested in. On the other side the actual advent of accelerated compute has applicability to everyone from smart cities to health care applications. We are looking at drug discovery, medical imaging, sequencing as being enabled by the advent of accelerated compute. Ed we lead you to it but we are talking about markets and the tailwind that is ai. We are not talking about rates. Not talking about concerns of Global Economic strength. Not talking about geopolitical headwinds. Why . Erika the interesting thing to think about is that this technology is disruptive to literally every single industry. While there are always going to be cyclical concerns, whether it is one specific geographic region slowing down or perhaps pressure of inflation or interest rates, at the end of the day what we are seeing is literally every single industry being disrupted by the advent of ai. I think that discussion happens not in a vacuum but it probably drowns out to a certain extent some of the more macro concerns. Caroline we just mentioned geopolitical tensions. I want to weave in the ongoing geopolitics it is the china and u. S. Because effects. The chip names president xi jinping and President Biden have held phone talks. No real details on the phone talks and what indeed was discussed. Chinas official news agency reporting that president xi has spoken with President Biden of late. We know in that context is the fact that the u. S. Has been limiting sales of u. S. Chips to china, worried about the up occasion of technology in china. Has that worried or in any way changed your opinion on how much to go into these names that are exposed to china, nvidia being one of them . Erika those u. S. Companies that sell equipment to make chips have also been banned from selling their most advanced equipment into china. I think at the end of the day what that does is it forces Semiconductor Companies to look for locations outside of taiwan, outside of china to build. What we have seen is an Unprecedented Demand of Government Support to build more semiconductor plans. Thats a great tailwind for equipment for years and years to come. On top of that the Semiconductor Chips themselves are becoming more Semiconductor Equipment intensive. This is a long time tailwind for the industry going forward. On the semiconductor side what we are finding is that where there is a will theres a way. People want to have the compute. It may take place in different geographic regions with the ultimate necessity is driving the demand for beyond what we thought for a month ago. Ed caroline and i have no prom talking about semiconductors all they long but there are other things. We will talk about the rubrik ipo later in the program. How do you feel about software, cybersecurity. There must be opportunity beyond the gpu and a combination of cpu and gpu. Erika theres extorting opportunity for apps to take advantage of this compute. Basically, what we are seeing is a scramble, and incredible innovation on the Software Side to be able to analyze the data. Being able to sort through huge amounts of data and make sense of it so companies can understand consumer patterns. The progression of certain drug certain diseases. Even modeling how drugs may behave as they are developing them. The software is very critical in this process. Not to mention the cybersecurity is absolutely an essential part of this. This is at the core the whatever companys best assets. The intellectual property must be protected and that is why cybersecurity is seeing such a strong backdrop of demand. Ed protect the data at all cost. Erika klauer, great to have you back in the program. Rubrik , the cloud and Data Security startup which is backed by microsoft has filed for an ipo. We will have those details next. Markets please. Caroline going back to what we could talk about, semiconductors, this being Semiconductor Index at every single name is in the red today. Even favored amd off by three pointy percent, the worst day since midmarch on this particular index. 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Thank you, boring. Caroline time for talking tech. Elon musks starlink claims is relative highspeed internet and italy is being instructed by telecom italia. The possible repercussions for services across nothing europe and north africa. The u. S. Is asking south korea to adopt restrictions on Semiconductor Technology exports to china similar to those washington has already implement it. Its another sign the Biden Administration is trying to thwartbeijings chip ambitions. Japan has approved 3. 9 billion dollars in subsidies to chip venture rapidus. The economy minister said the additional funding will help them by chipmaking equipment and develop advanced back in chipmaking processes. Ed what a name. Catching up in chips in is called rapidus. Rubrik , the cloud and data secured he startup backed by microsoft filing for an ipo. The size and price of the plant share sale to be disclosed in a later filing. The person that broke the story joins us now. This is based in palo alto well known, backed by microsoft. The banks tell us the size and scope of this one. Katie sure. We have been looking into this one for a while. They were supposed to go public last fall and then they delayed it. It broke that the filing was coming any day now and it came. This is one that is backed by lightspeed and greylock. They both were the top shareholders in the filing. They are backed by microsoft. Theres a lot of interest in this one. Its only the second Enterprise Software company to go public since 2021. We had clavio and now we have rubrik. This one is different. This is Data Security. They have large enterprise clients. Clients like goldman sachs. They also have publicsector clients like the state of utah. They have a pretty wide list of clients. They will be testing to see how things are. Caroline the market has to digest the fact that it is still lossmaking. Katie it is losing money but as jason left in, atop jason lefkin pointed out on twitter, is arr is growing, the annual growing revenue. This is a metric investors care about because it suggests the customers are renewing their contracts and they will continue to get more customers. They have a high retention rate. Depending on what you look at, profitability, no, they are not profitable. Theyre overall revenue is growing pretty slowly. Arr is up significantly. Caroline katie, thank you for some of the devil in the detail they got released last night. Coming up we will speak to a venture backed Firm Offering a dividend. Why they are paying out to investors right now. Ed also paying out at the moment is trump media and technology. Shares up 6. 5 . They were lower in premarket. They felt when anyone percent yesterday. Fell 21 yesterday. It gives you a sense of size of truth social, the r

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