3 30 voice. Live from new york city, good morning. But it your week started. Equity futures posited by 0. 1 . What a week ahead weve got for you. Wednesday, decision day. Apple earnings on thursday, payrolls on friday. If you want a sneak peek, the estimate, 250 k. Payrolls has been absolutely dominated by a series of upside surprises. This morning dominated by one chart, the dollaryen. Could we talk about the range weve seen on dollaryen today . This is not a monthly range, weve been through 160 already in the last 12 hours. We started the month focused on 152. Theyve been the ministry of finance in japan, no comment. Thats what we heard from the ministry of finance, no comment. Annmarie no comment for now. People are saying was it the fact that there is a Public Holiday in japan, low liquidity . But i love the fact that they come out and the top currency official says no comment for now. Will begin a comment . Do they intervene . Jonathan if you want to make a statement, it is a great time to do it. Low liquidity, national holiday, it makes a whole lot of sense. Will a dog chasing airborne frisbee . It appears to be trying to push the dollaryen in the absence of official intervention and is still unclear whether weve had socalled intervention. Really putting forward the statement of the morning, we actually need to see to put a durable floor or a durable ceiling on top of dollaryen. More aggressive policy action from both the ministry of finance, concerted and repeated intervention and the boj signaling a willingness to normalize policy further are necessary to stabilize the currency and cleaver signs a stronger across the water economy as well as signed the treasury yields have peaked will be needed before a sustainably and rally could actually get going. That is the push this morning. That currency pair has been an absolute mess so far in april. Coming up the sour, fantastic lineup to get through. The yen bounces off a 34 year low and wells fargo looking ahead to the fed. U. S. Stocks coming off of the strongest week of gains so far this year thanks to a big boost from big tech. Lori writing this, we still believe our target of 5300 is a reasonable expectation. The key thing we learn from our survey is that even the higher rates are a headwind, there is a confidence in the stockpicking community that this challenge can be managed. Lori joins us around the table. Fantastic to see you. I want to start with this. We went through some of the big names in big tech over the last week and started with nvidia two fridays ago. We had a 10 move on absolutely nothing. Tesla last wednesday moving 10 on a 500 billion market cap. Meta, another move. And then we had alphabet with a move 10 on friday on a 2. 1 trillion market cap. The big question, is 10 the new 1 , and what is the message you take away from that . I will go back to my small cap days if i can. This is has small caps have always treated. Some of the price reactions have gotten a bit worse, but i think in small caps this is just something that was a normal reaction to earnings for a long time, so it doesnt throw me quite as much as it might some other folks. Jonathan what should we take away from the fact that ubercapped stocks are behaving like small caps . Bloomberg does some great work just forecasting where the earnings are expected to go based on bottomup consensus forecast. You see a decelerating growth rate. Coming offer of 35 in 2023, that is forecast to drop to about 15 or so in 2025. That will basically come in line with the rest of the market. If theres one thing ive learned over the course of my career, when you have these powerful momentum stocks and growth rates to celebrate, Growth Investors get exd and that is what i feel like you are seeing in the stock price reaction. Jonathan jonathan it raises Big Questions going into numbers from apple and amazon. Amazon earnings coming tomorrow, apple on thursday. What do you sense has been rewarded really well this earnings season, what is getting punished . If you look at the russell 1000, and we have to look that big, beats are not getting. They are not performing as well as they typically do. I think what ive noticed as we are going through commentary, we dont get through everything, but what i feel like im seeing is just kind of an intolerance for the we need to be patient conversation. I sort of felt like there was a shift last week, midweek were companies that were saying we are getting the benefit of these things now, we are benefiting from the ramp that is going to continue in the coming years, investors were ok with that. But this wait and see, weve got to celebrated Earnings Growth at 27 times multiple on those biggest tech stocks. Investors dont have a lot of patience for that right now. Annmarie if there time for a pullback now . A lot of that has happened as we had some volatility in the bigger names. Im not looking for any kind of massive pullback in those names or in the markets. We thought the pullback would be worth about 5 10 . I dont think we are quite done yet. If you look at cftc data on positioning, nasdaq futures, s p futures, we havent even begun the correction. Weve done some damage but we still got probably a couple more weeks of damage to do. Annmarie so if you look at the peter cheer note he talks about how these Big Companies are trading like little companies. If theres not a pullback right now, how do you see this rotation . I think the financials have come from so far reasonably well. I personally read a lot of industrials and materials. Im not really seeing anything demand problems. I think it is not so much a particular sector, it is looking for industries, for companies within the value cyclical cohort of the market. Second the energy, materials, industrials. Jonathan latest note dropping from them, the stock to outperform. Apple has amid a psycho and fears they are structurally impaired. Im going to ask you specifically about apple and maybe some of the forces associated with that moment. Particularly china, the strength of the u. S. Dollar a factor as well. And many times of those two things come up so far . Im noticing and more with the tech companies. A lot of stuff in the other part of the market to hear from but so far it seems mostly to be a tech company phenomenon. I will say it is maybe a little hard to say because weve had a lot of initial so far but at least when i read last week, europe, china, things seem a lot more balance. If you look last year, it was all china is not coming through as well as we anticipated. And i wouldnt say im seeing a lot of jumping up and down into celebrating on china, but it seems more balance. Jonathan what is unique about china to them . Im not sure i have a great answer to that question, to be honest. When you are encountering difficulty in the postpandemic world, there was so much excitement a year ago that we were finally getting that recovery and that normalization. And that normalization just hasnt been as clean as a lot of companies would have anticipated. Theres just not a lot of visibility on when that was going to turn around. Annmarie i think back to what Mohamed Elerian recently told us about how a lot of people miss what ceos were saying and they bought into this transitory leash and. But ceos were saying we still feel inflation coming down the pipeline. What you gather about where inflation is right now . Back in the last reporting season, calendar one q, calendars companies were raising the red flags, complaining about cost, margin pressures. Im not sensing quite as much of that now. It doesnt sound good, some companies are complaining a lot about inflation, some people are talking about moderating but it is still very early. Jonathan going to be fantastic to run through some of the top stories. 10 the conversation with lori, not a single mention of the Federal Reserve going into that decision on wednesday which i guess is a good thing because weve actually been talking about nothing but the Federal Reserve over the last month or so. Lets turn to price action and start with equities. Equity futures on the s p 500 positive hereby 0. 1 . That move has been fading through this morning. In the bond market, yields lower by three or four basis points a 10 year. 4. 6239. The euro a little bit firmer, dollaryen turning around big time. That currency pair positive by 2 10 of 1 . Here is your bloomberg brief with dani burger. Annmarie elon musks quick visit to china has paid off almost immediately. Tesla will be partnering with baidu to support selfdriving function. I spoke to Peter Gardner earlier this morning who told me that musts visit was an acknowledgment that he needs to change the market narrative, but intimately. Tesla still will be a top player in chinas ev market. Phillips shares soaring, up 46 . The company reached a lowerthanexpected settlement on u. S. Claims over faulty sleep apnea devices. The deal they reached the authorities was for 1. 1 billion. That compares what analysts were expecting of 4. 5 billion. The expectation is also that this will draw a line under u. S. Claims but phillips for their part are still conducting toxicology tests related to the devices. The Redstone Family and David Ellison are trying to appease angry paramount investors. Sources tell us that the Redstone Family which controls a majority of shares and ellison of sky dance are both making appeals and can and allison is offering to buy a block of paramount shares at a premium. His bid described as the best and final offer as Board Members remain undecided about a sky dance takeover. Bob bakish could be ousted as soon as today by a management community. Jonathan appreciate the update. That story has been a mess. Look out for updates on that. Got updates on this and readd. Secretary blinken has been speaking, saying the israel ceasefire proposal, he calls it extraordinarily generous. The only thing standing between a ceasefire in gaza. That is the latest from secretary blinken this morning. Much more headlines throughout today. Up next, the 2024 president ial race ramping up. The 2024 election is in full swing and yes, age is an issue. Im a grown man. Im running against a sixyearold. Jonathan that conversation just around the corner. From the beautiful new york, good morning. Jonathan equity futures on the s p posited by 0. 1 . Last week, the biggest weekly gain of the year so far. Just remember that follow the biggest weekly loss on the s p 500 of the year so far. In april we are still down about 3 . Bond market yields are lower by three or four basis points. Two big events outside of earnings, Federal Reserve wednesday, payrolls report on friday. The 2024 president ial race ramping up. President biden the 2024 election is in full swing and yes, age is an issue. Im a grown man running against a sixyearold. [laughter] [applause] but i feel great. I really feel great. Im campaigning all over the country. Pennsylvania, georgia, north carolina. Ive always done well in the original 13 colonies. Jonathan just a few things to say. I know the president likes ice cream. If you want vanilla and you get vanilla, you cant complain after that. If you get a vanilla comedian to the socalled grilling, you get a vanilla grilling. I was surprised. I like the guy, what is the surprise . He delivered vanilla. Annmarie he had some funny moments but at the end he almost endorsed the president , talked about his grandfather who voted for joe biden and explain this whole story said he thinks he is a decent man and that is not really the job of the comedian the comedian is there to both the administration and the journalists, and maybe he was just too friendly. Jonathan shane gillis, can we get a proper roasting from shane . Annmarie that would be pretty funny. Jonathan that would be better than good. New polling in three swing states showing President Biden with a single digit lead in michigan. Former President Trump with a slim lead in pennsylvania and wisconsin. Terry haynes writing biden is still likely to be reelected by the skin of his teeth. Polls are leveling out, trump is still weak and rfks balloon is slowly running out of air. Youve maintained this view for quite a while. What is it that you see in error future that ultimately ends at this destination . Fundamentally, it is that trump has kind of topped out and biden has got a floor with some room to run and room to grow, and that is fundamental. Ever since midjanuary, trump has been off the week. What youve got is youve got awfully weak. Youve got splits of 2040 of the Party Regulars not voting for him, independents not breaking his way. He needs independents to be more for him then not in order to win. Right now that is not happening. You combine that with an electorate that really hungers for a credible, serious third party candidate. For a while it looked like he would either half of kennedy or no labels kennedy or both in those shoes. No labels drop down for lack of ability to convince anyone and bob kennedy im sorry to say has made his candidacy into a neat one, and far less serious. What youve got here is a situation where biden i think is going to have a superior organization, superior get out the vote and six months from now, i think that is what you see is the skin of the teeth win. Jonathan you know that she could for amateur political pundits like me. You banged the table and you say it is all going to be about turnout. You just say that on repeat to sound smart. Can you tell us about turnout, the potential for people just not to turn up given how disappointed they are with two candidates in front of them . I think theres possibility for that. It is all about turnout, of course, but at the same time, folks tend to overestimate how much turnout goes up or down. The famous obama search in 2008 turned out to be Something Like 1. 7 of the electorate. It seemed much bigger than that even on the ground at the time. But what youve got here is a situation where you got a couple of candidates that arent actually exciting people, generally speaking. There was one joke factory that called it a gesture to earth day by recycling president ial candidates, but that is going to get replaced i think by a surge by some on the right, the trump loyalists who havent increased their numbers since 2020, but are still quite passionate, but you are going to have the social issue democrats particularly in swing states and that is exactly what biden is counting on. The third thing they are counting on his obamas former Campaign Manager saying what is driving thirdparty numbers through the floor in the next six months, and they will try to achieve that by making into a nut. Lori as you think about the polling data and bidens low approval numbers, is there anything they can turn those around . In markets we are watching inflation, foreign policy. Do any of those things matter for biden at this point . Good morning, lori. The way i would look at it is bidens numbers on favorability and all the rest are pretty much going to be what they are. I take issue with a lot of where the white house has been on a number of these issues. Saying that you are going to deal with inflation and then having people still dealing with high prices and unsatisfied is not exactly a smart political strategy, among other things. But what i tend to look for is not so much whether or not his numbers on a per ability, i typically, anything else go. Another amateur table pounder is always a choice. Whether you are choosing for somebody or against somebody, bidens gambit is going to be that hes going to make it not so much about him, hes going to have a record, but hes going to make it about the other guy. What you saw at the correspondents dinner, you are going to be treated to six months more of that as part of that strategy. Wanting less of the trump circus is part of the Biden Campaign strategy. I think it actually helps him. Lori as we think about the intersection of politics and markets, when you are thinking about policy from these two candidates, what are the one or two things were saying if trump wins or biden wins, investors should really be expecting to happen in terms phrase they can make . Im not going to recommend specific traits but what i will say is youve got a situation where trump is going to be stronger on Traditional Industries and sectors. Defense, fossil fuels, things like that, generally speaking. They will be a lighter hand regulatory, none of this foolishness coming out of the ftc, trying to have the antitrust cases against luxury handbag makers and the like. That will cheer markets. What will worry markets about trump is the kind of stuff that is coming out of hyperventilating staff these days trying to meddle in the fed independence. Anything that metals with the fundamentals of markets, and that includes the feds ability to do its job, is going to be a negative for markets. That is happening now a little bit but markets will very much need to look out for that should trump the president. Annmarie i want to go back to the cbs news poll. Biden and trump cant. What levers can biden pull before the election to help these three states sure up support, michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin . Let me speak to pennsylvania specifically because i know the most about any granular sense. Biden thinks hes going to pennsylvania, that is not true. Theres philadelphia, then there is the vast rest of the state. The rest of the state, speaking broadly, is read. They dont like him, they dont understand what hes doing. What they understand is that prices are up in Core Industries including Energy Industries that are under attack. Biden needs to do more than get into pittsburgh and talk to the steelworkers for 15 minutes. He needs to go 15 miles south to canonsburg which is the World Capital of fracking and talk to people in washington county, greene county, Fayette County about why hes trying to do what he is trying to do for them. It cant just be about the groups of Traditional Democratic politics, the groups in which you get turnout. It has got to be about more than that. The more he tries to connect with real citizens who might be skeptical about him, the better he will do. Jonathan ive got 10 seconds. Should that dinner with the last dinner . It should have been the last dinner about 10 or 15 years ago. Look at Jerry Seinfelds<