Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240703 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg July 3, 2024

For all the stocks. Looking at where the aussie dollar is, 65. 7 two cents. when it comes to ethics. The yen holding steady. Brent crude is just shy of 84. The energy names across asia, concerns continue to weigh on the demand side for oil looking like we are setting up for the weakest week in Oil Prices Since february as u. S. Inventories way and i miss concerns about opec policy of maintaining their stance, impacting these concerns about supply and demand in the market, belle. Annabelle yes, and also we have at the start of trading for korea, as we come online this morning. Japan is shut for the public holiday. We are posting gains at the open. A bit of curry on one strand. The dollar having its weakest session overnight a bit of strength for the korean won. What is playing into the theme for korean equities and was can play into the sea is that apple numbers. Lets look at how the some of those supplier stocks are coming online this morning. We saw the jump in late trade in apples a game of 6 . Seeing some gains, as well for some of the companies that supply into that u. S. Big tech giant. A company posting strongerthanexpected sales last quarter and predicting a return to growth in the current period. A bit of optimism that the slowdown is perhaps easy. Of next guest remains positive on Global Equities with a preference for u. S. Tax. Joining us now is kieran calder, head of Asia Equity Research at Union Bancaire privee a su su . Wit what w have god, are you optimistic about the outlook from here . Kieran we are optimistic on equities and we have been looking to add on any movements related to what is going on with the current results season. You mentioned apple and other state less bad than feared could be a strong shortterm catalyst, they are obviously one of the largest supply chains in asia and we think this will be good for the whole ecosystem, probably today. Annabelle and the moves that we are seeing so far in u. S. Stocks over the course of this year, given the race environment we are expecting, where do you see the expectations heading into the second half at this point . Kieran we think the second half will be a strong period of earnings momentum. Four months ago we would have said that would be coupled with the beginning of rate cuts. We also know that this has been pushed back at least until the end of the year. If you consider that the biggest mistake that the fed could make would be to start to cut too early and see a resurgence of inflation. The latest inflation print have obviously proven that inflation is sticky. Against the u. S. Economy, which is doing pretty well. So we think the net effect of that will be pretty good Earnings Growth momentum in the second half of the year and that is why we will be looking to increase allocation to equities, especially growth. And that takes us to tech obviously, in the current period. Haidi would you also be looking at more international allocations, with the big moves we have seen in the yen, the multiple attempts at intervention that we see most likely was what played out this week, are you looking at opportunities within japanese equity still . Kieran yes, absolutely. It has obviously been an interesting period since the boj finally gave up on that. The market peaked two days later and now we are in this period where basically the bank of japan has very little control over where the yen will go given that the rate differential versus the u. S. Is going to persist. So, the intervention, while it has been pretty effective in drawing a line in the sand at 160, most likely we will see that get tested again. And the period for the yen to stop weakening will be when u. S. Trades start to get cut in the differential changes. The market peaked a couple of days after the end of. We are in a period right now of fullyear results, next years guidance and heading into the ag m season. It has become a stock pickers market in japan. And we are looking forward to seeing additional push on the Corporate Governance and restructuring and et cetera through the agm season. So we are ready to add on weakness in japan at the moment. Haidi haidi i wanted to get your thoughts on the hong kong rally. We are starting to see signals for the First Time Since the reopening rallies that may be ashares are looking overbought. Is that another false dawn when it comes to this market, or is it a fundamental driver for this rally to continue . Hshares. Kieran for us, obviously three years of underperformance have left the market and under owned and longlived unloved. You have to consider that in the context of the current rally. We still have an underweight view on china we think there are structural issues that still need to be addressed. On the one hand, less bad news or lack of bad news at the end of a three years period of underperformance can itself be a catalyst and thats what we have seen. Our current view would be to take profit into that until we see real structural change, especially in the property sector that would help that is a precursor to longterm Investor Confidence, especially for Investor Confidence returning to china. But, of course, the strongest large Global Market but so far this year on a u. S. Dollar basis has been china hshares. We are having a period right now where we would probably look to take a bit off. Annabelle wt are your views on tensions between the u. S. And china . Those are set to go higher perhaps in an election year. If you have highlighted one of the key risks of being the return of donald trump to the presidency. But what are the key risks that you would associate with that . Kieran well, anything goes with it a second trump presidency. So, [laughs] i think it would be something that we have to stay clear. , look, i think it is becoming a there is a real chance that trump comes back. Obviously, he likes to have an enemy. Once it is no longer joe biden, or if it is no longer joe biden and he does get back in, we would be very cautious around china and anything goes. , on the other hand, it is pretty even, if you look at the odds so far, and we are a few months away. So certainly something to keep an eye on. But nothing concrete for now. Haidi kieran calder, always great to chat with you, head of is a Equity Research at ubp. Development is crossing the bloomberg when it comes to gip and cpp, nearly a 5 billion due for the utility group, provides Energy Services across the upper midwest of the united states, across generations transmission and distribution of Electricity Power for retail and wholesale. We are hearing that the Global Infrastructure partners and cpp partners are close to a deal. There havent been any comments so far, but we will bring you details as we get them. Still i had at this hour, australias Retirement Program may be the envy of the world right now are it still faces challenges. We will discuss more with the ceo of a superannuation industry body. This is bloomberg. Haidi take a look at one of the stocks we are watching just about 10 minutes into the start of trading. Macquarie group is down 1. 8 after earnings missed estimates. Weakness across the commodities business and Global Markets business was a week well, dragging the overall performance. Net income falling 32 . Short of the 3. 6 billion dollars aussie dollar average projection from the analysts that we surveyed from what we have seen that underperformance across the, share price in terms of the comparison to global peers over the past year. Expectations were flagged for a soft result from it we have seen so much volatility in Energy Markets and that environment for m a being sluggish as well. Annabelle and another group of stocks we are tracking this morning is apple suppliers. They are rising across the board. Unsurprisingly, apple itself is jumping in needs trading after predicting a return to growth for the current period. Lets get more on those numbers and bring in bloomberg tech reporter mark gurman. Whats to doubt the most from these numbers . Mark the biggest highlight was apple did better in china than Counterpoint Research and others had anticipated. They had said that iphone sales in china had declined by 19 . Tim cook was asked to try to square that away on the earnings call. But how could he . These are thirdparty Analyst Reports making a claim. Apple has the actual numbers. They dont know where the other numbers are coming from. Who knows if counterpoint or the others know whether numbers are coming from . The reality is china iphone numbers, not so hot. But cook is saying that it has nothing to do with the iphone, it is the companys other products. The other two investor. Was wearing accessories. It came in at 900 million below where we set a year ago. Not so great given the vision for launch this quarter. Sales are only going to go down from here during the current pricing cycle, on the car in front of cycle for that product. Not creating any growth in that category is a little concerning, but obviously youre still in the for of the product. Annabelle we spoke a few weeks ago when you were saying that going back to apple and china, and remember to give you a couple of weeks ago and he said he felt that apple needed to make tweaks or changes to its product lineup that were specific to the Chinese Market. Given the numbers that came through, do you think it alleviates the need for the company to do so . Mark what i believe i said is that they need to create some products to really create a new Growth Opportunities in emerging markets. As they explained on the call today, china is the ultimate emerging market than they are doing well there from indonesia, they are growing, but they have limited market share fill in those regions. I said that the up that market share, to go even more quickly, they should release a cheaper form tailored to emerging markets, bring more people into the Apple Ecosystem, then as the middle classes in china, indonesia, vietnam, Eastern Europe and africa expand over the next several years, then you can sell those consumers who are already in the Apple Ecosystem for those higher end products. My theory was not about china in particular but more about a Global Emerging Markets play. Haidi we spoke to an analyst earlier who pinpointed strengths, one is obviously the apple universe, the infrastructure and the loyalty customers have the other is ai. Do you see progress being made in terms of playing catch up on ai for that to be a strong proposition for apple and loyalty to apple Going Forward . Mark i think the ai three will make the system more sticky. When people are choosing to buy new phones and deciding if they will buy an iphone for any other phone, i think the ai teachers will perhaps make the iphone more interesting and certainly more competitive in the landscape. But they will not sell a ton of new devices from the getgo because of these new ai initiatives. This is something they have to do they are placating wall street and placating consumers and starting this next Generation Cycle of Software Intelligence in these devices. I think this will have a positive outcome for them. Its not specific to the iphone, this is something you will see on the ipad, the mac, the vision pro, the watch, et cetera so certainly, this is a long gain for apple as is everything they do. Haidi Bloomberg Technology reporter mark gurman there with the latest on those numbers. Lets stick with tech. Bloombergas learned that huawei is secretly funding cuttingedge research at u. S. Universities through an independent foundation in washington, despite restrictions officials have imposed on the company over National Security concerns. Our attack and National Security reporter has the details and joins us. Our tech and National Security reporter has the details. How to discover that they were able to fund this research in secret. We learned that huawei partnered with a foundation in washington, d. C. Called the Optica Foundation. The foundation administered a Research Competition that attracted top researchers from all sorts of top universities in the u. S. And globally, and what we learned is that these researchers, when they were applying for funding the competition, they believed the funding was coming from this u. S. Entity but, in fact, it was funded completely by huawei, but there had been no disclosure to them about that. Annabelle no disclosure, perhaps a bit of a gray area. But, is this indeed legal . Kate that is all of the most interesting things is that it appears to be totally legal. While waco is on so many different lists in the u. S. For restriction, including very severe export controls that prevent a lot of prevent sharing of technology with the company. But in this case, this Research Competition is sponsoring Academic Research which is generally meant to be published. And that is actually exempt from export controls. So there is nothing that is actually illegal with this, and i found out to be one of the most interesting parts of the story. Haidi what have we heard from wally cole spent the Optica Foundation from it and have we heard anything in terms of the academics researchers in the universities involved . Kate optica has said, look, we have many donors who would like to remain anonymous including u. S. Donors, and may be the case is that, but there arent u. S. Donors on export control lists. Huawei has said they want to keep their name out of it for their name was kept out of it, because they didnt want to the event can be seen as promotional. And in terms of the universities and researchers, i have not been able to find one Relevant University official or researcher who had any idea about this until i called them. Annabelle that was our tech and National Security reporter kate okeefe, who is behind the bloomberg exclusive. Lets shift to qualcomm. Shares jumped the most in two and a half years after an upbeat forecast pointing to a rebound in demand for smartphone shapes the ceo told us what is driving growth in the key Chinese Market. The story on handsets in china is pretty simple. The market has stabilized, we had said that a couple of quarters ago. End users are buying better phones. It is really for us, a story of flagship within the android, especially a lot of those black ships lunching with genai. I think we are seeing the very beginning of gen ai coming to devices, and that drove a lot of the growth. It is 40 not only in this quarter, but it is actually expected to have the same in the next quarter as we look at the guide. It has been a good story as the Smartphone Market stabilizes and the android flagship has stayed resilience. As you know and our audience knows, we will talk about the device when it comes to generative ai. Lets linger on china. Looks like the domestic players that android faced are gaining market share against the mark market for iphone. If you see that in the Counterpoint Research data. Is that the case, where the domestic players are gaining market share, what does it mean for qualcomm . The way you should think about our position in china in the handset market, we have been very focused on the premium and high tier snapdragon. So when an android oem from our customers show me,show meat and others, when they are selling a flagship device, not only do we have the modem content, we have the ai engine and the processor and that has been a positive development and has been driving the increase, especially with the make changes to our premium device. The fact that the android flagship intranet with the chinese oems had been stable and proven to be resilient and seeing positive momentum, chinese users buying better phones, that is a good story for qualcomm and it is reflected in the numbers. Haidi qualcomm Ceo Cristiano Amon there speaking with our colleagues at ed ludlow. You can watch us live and see our past interviews with our interactive tv function. That is tv. You can join in on the conversation as well by joining us sending us is that messages during our shows. Its for bloomberg subscribers only. Check it out at tv. This is bloomberg. Annabelle youre watching Bloomberg Markets asia. Hamas says it is starting a temporary ceasefire plan with israel, in a positive spirit, as International Pressure mounts on both sides to reach a deal. The iranian backed militant groups has it plans to send a delegation to the egypt as soon as possible to continue negotiations. Israel said it would only consider joining ceasefire talks once a mass response to the latest proposal for a temporary truce and release of hostages. Turkey is halting all trade with israel over what it the worsening humanitarian tragedy in palestine. Israels imports from turkey reached 4. 6 billion last year and include machinery, fuel, Fresh Produce and food. Israels foreign minister used a post on x to call it the behavior of a dictator. U. S. Officials say russia and china are working more closely together on military issues including the potential invasion of taiwan. Director of National Intelligence avril haines told congress that beijing evidently wants moscow to be working with it on taiwan. She said intelligence

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