Partners, they are impatient about getting some of their capital back from the general partners . Are there vehicles to get around that that you might be involved in . Paul there definitely are vehicles. Lets unpack what the problem is. If you have private equity firms who have bought assets in katie i m Katie Greifeld and the low Interest Rate environment and now rates are at meaningfully higher, there is a reluctance to sell those assets welcome to bloomberg markets. In a period where they a lot of good news on the screen underwrote it at one multiple behind me. And now they are looking at selling it in a different multiple. S p 500 on an alltime high of one of the great things about about. 4 . Private equity firms if they are the same story if you look at exquisite in controlling the exits. Big tech higher to the tune of what were seeing is what they sense as rates have crested, about point 4 . They have yet to come down. It will not be until rates start you can see the 10year gilts to come down that we believe you currently lower by point 05, will see a lot of monetization from the private equity industry. Since there hasnt been a lot of pretty close to 430 and some of that has come back. Monetizations, they have been reluctant to continue to call Consumer Prices cooled in april capital from their limited for the first time in six months partners and in fact, i think we are at an extended periods of time where the capital close to which is a welcome relief for the fed. Investors and private equity funds continue to exceed the we have had a while to digest capital returned. That is putting pressure on the had by numbers. Take us below the headline what deployment of capital so private were some of the biggest component moves . Equity is less aggressive in deploying capital and they have been less willing to monetize mike they were good because their own assets. They came down on the month of we are trying to work with for the month basis. Private equity firms to deal with those liquidity issues. Most of the categories people watch did go on the right direction. Used cars fell as to cost for david in los angeles at milken, we heard a lot about continuation vehicles. Explain how that might work and how they might release the health care. For many people although prices pressure. Paul the idea of the Continuation Fund starts with a premise where we find an asset are still rising. That you like, you own it, you continue to deliver superior results. There are some areas the fed this forced shotclock in will be worrying about. The good news in the numbers is monetizing it 5, 6 years in just housing where it is so small to give him the ability to investors many of whom would be perfectly content if you decline but there is a decline continued to own the asset and to the lowest we have seen. Get excess returns, but you have other limited partners who have other needs for the capital, with rent going down as well. More liquidity. So what it continuation vehicle does is give those limited this may presage a further drop partners who went liquidity the in housing. That is what the fed has been ability to leave or to exit the waiting to see. Investment and let new pools of capital come in. You mentioned earlier about and the private equity fund retail sales. Its not as bad as of books but continues to own and manage the asset. Katie that was paul taubman, it is. Not only did the numbers come in week but the previous numbers pjt partners founder, chairman were revised down. And ceo, along with david westin. Tomorrow we will hear from its a question of what people elizabeth greer, jd power vp of were buying. Things like automobiles did not electric vehicle practice. This is bloomberg. Sell down. 8 . You take out gasoline but look at food prices, grocery stores, retail sales for motor vehicles, they are showing the way people bought was the stuff they usually by and what they did not by was bought more infrequent. It looks like the fed is getting what it wants. Katie when it comes to inflation they didnt have the confidence that they did at the beginning of the year. I know this is just one data print. With this give the fed more confidence to coverage . Mike they wanted see several more indications and months worth of data along those same lines before they make any decisions at all. Katie always appreciate the break down. Lets bring this conversation to the markets because our next guest says profits are the glue. Walk me through that. Profits being glue. If you look at the earnings season we are in, how strong us a clue . It is very sticky. Profits are rising very strong. Historically what we have seen the nasdaq 100 had an earnings shortage in 2022 thats where we had s p excluding gnostic. Its is going to show very tamra, izzy, and emma. They respond to emails with phone calls. And they dont circle back, theyre already there. They wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clicketyclacking. Clicketyclackier. But no one loves logistics as much as they do. You need tamra, izzy, and emma. They need a retirement plan. Work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan thats right for your team. Let our expertise round out yours. So, what are you thinking . Im thinking. speaking to self about our honeymoon. What about africa . Safari . Hot air balloon ride . Swim with elephants . Wait, can we afford a safari . Great question. Like everything, it takes a little planning. Or, put the money towards a downpayment. On a ranch. In montana. With horses strong Profit Growth and when i lets take a look at those scenarios. J. P. Morgan Wealth Management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. When youre planning for it all. The answer is j. P. Morgan Wealth Management. Katie vanguard is naming blackrock betterment celine ramsey as the companys next think of earnings season is ceo. He will be the first outsider to proven how strong the u. S. Lead the firm. Profit cycle is and thats the ramsey helped oversee a massive reason i will keep my target at expansion of blackrocks business. Some more, lets turn to eric 5500. Katie 5500 year end and look balchunas who literally wrote the book on vanguard and jack will go. This is interesting because where we are now at 5272 what blackrock is number one in the etf industry and now the former does that path look like . Head of etfs is greater the bumpy or smooth . Number two issuer in the we are thinking it will be industry. What do you make of it . Strong with profit being the key eric it was a bit of a focus. Watching nasdaq financials are surprise. I called it a semishock. Greg davis was my first pick, but this was a dark horse pick i thought because he was not at participating in the cycle and blackrock anymore and not only had he run the etfs product line when you add financials into the mix you can talk about at blackrock growing it from one broadening largecap equity. Trillion to two point 5 trillion, he can clearly run an the broader take it always etf business. He has the experience. But to me, he has the vanguardian dna and i think that happens during election years and we should be moving higher was necessary for him to the by the end of the year. This job. He is truly interest. He is a student of indexing, he we will get into the election but its interesting there was a note out from bmo lifting their knows the history back and forth. So i think it wasnt just his target to 50 600. Experience, i think he also won over their hearts in the interview and that is important what goes into you potentially because vanguard is a very of 30 year target. Private, almost cultlike what elements which you need to see before lifting here target . Place, and to veer from that history of hiring internally, manish u. S. Bond deals go you must submit a really good impression. Katie when you think about it blackrock and vanguard as below 4 . Spiritual opposites. Blackrock has over 400 etfs in every single asset class. Earnings surprised on s p for vanguards lineup, they have 86 next year and that would lead tdfs they dont charge commodities, crypto and derivatives. Do you see salim ramji adhering to the vanguard culture, may be bringing some of that blackrock the case for rate cuts. Flavor to vanguard . Given that is not our base case eric its an interesting we dont expect the 10 year to question and for analysts like go below 30 . Me, it will be fun to watch. Obviously vanguard is an into katie i hope we have not lost Something Like bitcoin. The door is now open, in my you. If you are so there that is an opinion, for at least an etf interesting comment that you need to see bond yields below 4 platform if not them launching one where they go into some of the stuff blackrock offers. Before upgrading the s p target i think ramji will do very implies this is a macro driven little to the etf product line. Market. We will work on getting he will focus on things like customer service, appealing to younger investors and may be their Wealth Management business manish back. Which is about 300 billion dollars, but almost 90 internal gamestop, is it over . Vanguard customers. It is something he could market externally and grow up because you get the full wealth and management for anywhere from 20 bailey we had 15, 16 yesterday 510 basis points. So volatility is there but you need more buyers ive been tracking the story going back to 2021 the media is going viral so there is a lot of challenges and opportunities for him outside of etfs. I think he will tinker with that a bit. We could see where he pushes the envelope a bit. And staying mainstream regular traders creating rocket katie lets talk about of course the race, we have blackrock with 2. 8 200 in u. S. Accounts. We see more sellers and buyers etf. On fidelity. Take a look at vanguard, i think the stock is 16 from alltime highs so plenty of people want the current number is 2. 6 trillion. When does vanguard overtake blackrock . Eric probably in two years, to cash out the stock. Depending on the market. Katie down 60 from the if the market gets worse, vanguard will take them over alltime high, 25 today. Faster. Market appreciation means less in a down market. It is dizzying to keep up with. If we keep having a bull market over the years, it will take lets talk about amc. Longer, maybe three years. That said, blackrock is no slouch, they are very amc seizing the moment here competitive. A huge hit with the bitcoin etf, swapping debt for equity. Vanguard doesnt have that. This meme mania turns into the but vanguard has a solid lead. So salim is being handed news for the company. Bailey 23 million shares in ironically the guy who used to run blackrock is great to see vanguard pass them. Exchange for 164 million for notes due in 2026. They have billions of dollars in debt due in 2026. Thus the difference between this company and amc. Katie going from top to top they announce on monday that there. Eric, enjoy this conversation as they raised 250 million in cash always, Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg Intelligence tune into me and eric every monday on etf iq at 12 00 p. M. Eastern. Coming up, we have frank mccourt, jr. He joins bloomberg tech next. Thats is it for bloomberg announcing they were looking to markets. I am Katie Greifeld, and this is return 52 million a debt. Bloomberg. It does make it more appetizing to clean up these Balance Sheets which is why there trading so poorly. Katie amc still has a lot of what to talk. Tell me about new York Community bank. There are transactions going on there. Bailey applauding their deal since sell 5 billion in loans to jp morgan to try to recoup some of the losses. This is one of the regional banks that has fallen under pressure with under what the path would look like. Theyre trying to shore up the Balance Sheet and take advantage of the lungs they have to free up cash. Katie that was an ugly chart we saw there was going on in netflix and spores. Bailey i know you love sports. This is a deal that would include Christmas Day games. They had the roast of tom brady. Katie incredible. Bailey live spores is a big moneymaker and is interesting to see how they are paying for 18 streaming services. Katie i think they should have nikki glaser roast every single week. Lets get some final thoughts with manish kabra. You said you would want to see 10 year yields below 4 . With this conversation with profits and earnings it sounds there are a lot of macro elements here. Manish there is a huge dispersion within the profit cycle so this is based around technology. And materials and india, japan. Everything from the large cap booms in the market. If you go into Smaller Companies and we need a base coat. At that point we can talk about increasing capital into Smaller Companies. Thus the reason we should see bond yields going below for and enough credit to get for rate you know whats brilliant . Boring. Think about it. Boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. What straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space . Boring does. Boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. Because its smart, dependable, and steady. All words you want from your bank. For nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled. Which is pretty unboring if you think about it. People couldnt see my potential. So i had to show them. Ive run this place for 20 years, but i still need to prove that im more than what you see on paper. Today im the ceo of my own company. Its the way my mind works. I have a very mechanical brain. Why are we not rethinking this . I am more. Im more than who i am on paper. From the heart of where innovation, money and power collide in Silicon Valley and cuts. Beyond, this is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and ed ludlow. Inaction is a good policy at this point. Katie for fed rate because looks more likely this morning i am Caroline Hyde at bloomberg World Headquarters in then yesterday morning. New york. Lets finish on the u. S. And i am ed ludlow in san election. Francisco. We know what President Biden looks like and what President Trump look like what is the one coming up, a new bidder trait that would work in either imagines for tiktok. Scenario . We sit down with project liberty fund are frank mccourt. And we bring you the manish all the policy of takeaways from googles ipo developers biotin 2. 0 and trump 2. 0 are opposite. The only part is derisking china it is helping industrials we like industrials for that reason. People will restoring the fisheries stocks. They have worked with trump when he was in power and thus the only trait that works. Katie u. S. Industrials under trump and biden. We appreciate you sticking with us. That is manish kabra retail sales are stagnating are we reaching the consumer is breaking point . That is next, this is bloomberg. So, what are you thinking . Im thinking. speaking to self about our honeymoon. What about africa . Safari . Hot air balloon ride . Swim with elephants . Wait, can we afford a safari . Great question. Like everything, it takes a little planning. Or, put the money towards a downpayment. On a ranch. In montana. With horses lets take a look at those scenarios. J. P. Morgan Wealth Management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. When youre planning for it all. The answer is j. P. Morgan Wealth Management. Katie april retail sales come in flat as consumers rope in their spending. Joining us now is adrian yih. Were going to get into the production maker and luxury dealers. When you look at the broad Economic Data we are seeing are you seeing it the individual Company Level as well . We are seeing it very patchy. We talk about the consumer being relatively healthy. In the broad swath of the 70 51 50 k which is where Specialty Retail aims. They have the capacity to spend but they are bearing being careful where they spend. You have to dig into the numbers that is a stock ticker environment. Katie how does it translate into the decisions retailers are making . Will we see more discounts . How do we respond . Adrienne we finished the retail quarter similar to marge april. In the promotions immediately kicked up in the month of april. What we saw in january through march was the cleanliness of the u. S. Distribution network being clean. There wasnt much promotional activity and they were trying to hold on to this promotional discipline. The weather for apparel and people getting out and getting to the mall has been atrocious in the northeast area. There are three things that work to tamp down the demand one is selective inventory for promotions to drive those and two has been this weather pattern. And there is the calendar shift with all of these holidays moved around. Distorting march and april. Katie who is best positioned you talked about promotions across the board and a lot of retailers employ that strategy. He was the most likely to be successful . Adrienne in apparel we are in an air pocket. We love clothing retailers if youre starting to see goods and the apparel midstream if you want to play defense. Knowing there has been a consumer malaise. If you want to play the weakest and wait until after the quarter is reported because we think there will be sloppiness going on. We want to get into names that will play into this be denim trend. American eagle, the got. I was say hold on we dont see those orders you have. Katie i want to look backwards and your downgrade to lululemon. This position little of her big versus little. Put that into laymans terms . What that means, that soul a what . Adrienne silhouette shift his head to toe top, bottom, she wear. We have been in the greater part of the last 15 years into a skinny leg denim. In the past five years, that denim trend has turned into an athleisure trend. As we come out of the pandemic, we are seeing the for year of the denim based trend that is baggy and pare back to totally different footwear. In the fall season, back to school a 1525 female trend. She will not a things for the room in her closet and she probably has a lot of athleisure and