Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240703 : vimarsana.com

Host welcome to bloomberg daybreak australia. We are counting down to asias major market opens. The top stories this hour. Asia sat for a lower open after wall street fades at the close. The dow jones retreating from the 40,000 level. Host jamie dimon sounding on alarm when it comes to lingering Inflationary Forces telling us the chances for a hard landing are higher than markets thank. Host and a busy friday in china with highlevel talks on the property sector. A third sale of special bonds and april Economic Data that may show a modest improvement. Host we do have south korean jobs crossing the bloomberg. We see the Unemployment Rate for april sticking to two point 8 . The expectations from economists were two point 8 and it is unchanged from the previous month. We were expecting potentially more of a softness. Up to 2. 9 percent. We did see level force participation increasing. But the jobless rate levels around this level are below the postpandemic average of 3. 3 . Bloomberg economics considering that the natural rate of unemployment so neither pushing up or down inflation. A tighter job market giving the bank of korea time before cutting rates. Labor participation something to watch especially as it comes to employment growth across manufacturers. A softness in services as well. You did in terms of the reaction one might expect to see. A softer start to trading this friday as we had to the end of the week. Look at how aussie futures are sitting. Mostly headed for early declines across the region. Tampering optimism linked to the u. S. Inflation reading we had midweek. The reassessment of the path forward for the fed is at play. Chicago nikkei futures looking neutral at the moment. Watching china after the early exuberance when it comes to potentially the report that we would see further action on the property sector. We are hearing that chinese regulators will be talking about property aid when they meet with banks later on today. A very busy day ahead for china not least because of the activity data you out in the next few hours. Look at u. S. Futures coming online. Fairly steady right now. In the context of the days trading session there are some notable factors. He had twists and turns but the dow jones stood out because we briefly touched the 40,000 mark. We closed slightly below it. Futures trading around the level. The question is whether markets are in overvalue territory. Cross assets as well. Treasury yields a little higher. A bit of a bounce back of the dollar after a drop to a onemonth low. Concerns building around inflation. We are about to hear from jamie more asher jp Morgans Jamie Dimon and fed officials saying the Central Banks should be keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. One was that cleveland fed president , take a listen. Incoming economic information indicates it is going to take longer to gain the confidence. So holding our restrictive stands for longer is prudent to at this point as we gain clarity about the path of inflation. I think the surprise would be higher rate because inflation did not go down. Inflation has been stubborn and could bounce up next year. I think inflation may be in the cards. It may have nothing to do with what we see today. Lets bring in our first guest, Burns Mckinney fromnfj investment group. The market exuberance in reaction to the u. S. Cpi data, still questionable in terms of inflationary pressures in the core core. Is it surprising that we are seeing a reassessment of their reality check now . Burns it is not terribly surprising. We have been in this mode for the last couple of years where the equity markets are continuously trading raised on what the inflation data is because of the fact that might determine fed interestrate policy going forward. The cpi print this week and the u. S. Did seem to deflate the notion or their narrative that maybe we might have a real acceleration of inflation. A reacceleration of inflation. Jay powell and the fed have said there is probably rates may be higher for longer but at the same time, they are more likely to cut rates at this time at some point this year rather than raise them. They are in the sweet spot. They have time to be patient in spite of the fact that Interest Rate policy they started hiking rates two years ago. Despite that, unemployment in the u. S. Has been at or below 4 month after month after month for over two years. It has been 50 years that we have seen unemployment stay this low for this long which buys them the time to be patient without worrying about breaking something. If you are on a road trip, you are Getting Better mileage. Maybe that means you can go longer without stopping for gas. That puts the fed and a pretty good position. Do you go for the next however many months until we finally got a rate cut leading into the growth stocks, mega caps, or do you start rotating now . Burns we would really advise investors to start laboring into a portfolio now. Despite the fact that lower rates in the near term could benefit some of the tech high flyers, we believe that right now is a good time for investors to lean in to value equities. They have been out of favor for a long time. As a result, you have valuations on your side. Last year the u. S. Value index trailed the growth index by 30 percentage points. Historically when it has trailed by that margin, it has outperformed three quarters of the time in the next 1218 months because of the lag. Almost a 50 discount to the growth discount. Death growth index. It may be that while the fed may start lowering rates this year, the long end of the curve may stay a little higher for longer which bodes well for shorter duration things. And companies for which you are getting cash flow earnings today rather than down the road, that could be the catalyst to maybe get investors back into value stocks. They have been out of favor for over a decade and maybe they get there do. Are there any particular names that stand out to you . One thing that jumps out to us right now is the fact that investors going back a year ago, investors were terrified that we had a recession that would be a sure thing. Towards the end of 2023, the soft landing narrative began to take shape so investors had a flight to risk and they began to dump a lot of defensive areas. Places like utilities. When the sun is shining, people are looking for umbrellas. You cant play defense. A great example of that would be next era energy, one of the largest utilities. It trades at a discount right now on the s p 500 for the first time in six years. Only 5 of the time has it been this cheap. A 3 dividend yield is not the highest yield of utilities that one of the best growing. They have tripled the payout over the last decade. In addition to getting the largest regulated utility and florida, right now you pay a premium for the extra freebie you are getting now. They are the u. S. Leader in clean and renewable energy. What about opportunities outside of the u. S. . Are there any specific areas you are looking into in emerging markets, for instance . Burns overall we would argue the emerging market holds promise right now again. They have also been out of favor and have trailed the u. S. For a long time. If you look at pricetobook ratios, the msci emerging markets index is trading at such a discount to the s p 500. It has not been this relatively cheap since 1996. Going back 28 years. And if there is one thing that could drive a little bit of a comeback for emergingmarket equities, it may be that if the fed does finally got their freedom to lower Interest Rates later this year, that might weaken the dollar which would potentially spur a bit of a comeback in emerging markets. One of the incentives could be a better performance out of china. We have seen stocks come off the bottom. All you asians are still attractive. We are hearing noises that more policy action will be taken regarding the policy the property sector. Does this look like a fundamental rereading . Rerating . Burns it will always be volatile in the near term but for investors that have a 35 year time horizon, right now might be the time to chip away at exposure to china. Gaining momentum. Major policy errors over the last several years whereby you had stringent covid lockdowns that lasted too long, you had a regulatory onslaught against a lot of the tech Time Technology companies in china and a lot of headwinds are turning into tailwinds. They have reopened the economy. It was never going to be a straight line, smoothly. If you take your like out of a cast, you have to walk for you can run. With respect to pancras serve requirements, with respect to bank reserve requirements, they are providing stimulus and you are starting to see the fruits of that. Gdp, the economy in china grew by a faster rate last quarter per versus faster rate last quarter versus the previous quarter. Despite that, you do have very pharaoh very favorable valuations. You have a market that is still trading at 80 discount to its longterm averages whereby for longterm investors there are opportunities in china for the types of companies that might benefit from a glowing but a growing middleclass. Many companies are sitting on tons of cash on the balance sheet. Host burns, thank you so much for your time. Burns mckinney. Coming up later indochina show, we speak exclusively to the Philippine Central Bank governor as he signals rate cuts on the way. That big interview coming just after 9 00 in hong kong. Exclusive to bloomberg. The stories you need to know to get your day going in todays addition of daybreak. It is also available on mobile and bloomberg available anywhere. You can customize your settings. This is bloomberg. When you automate sales tax with avalara, you dont have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. Avalarahhh ahhh should i . Normally id hold. But. Taking the gains is smart here, right . Feel more confident with stock ratings from j. P. Morgan analysts in the chase app. When youve got a decision to make. The answer is j. P. Morgan wealth management. Annabelle chinas government is said to be planning a meeting friday morning with banks and regulators to discuss at the property market. The agenda include proposals to clear inventory. For more, we are joined by our chinese correspondent. We have already seen properties stocks rising in anticipation of this but what do we know about the meeting . The breadth of the invitees show how important this meeting is. We are looking as senior officials. They are all attending Via Video Conference discuss this proposal to potentially buy back millions of homes from across the country with the help of state owned enterprise and using loans from state yanks. A lot of details yet to be sketched out. The big question is, how big of a scale is is going to be on how will they finance this . In early 2023 the government rolled out something similar on a smaller scale. They extended it they extended credit for a loaning facility on the plan was to get eight cities on a trial basis to buyback excess housing but as of march only 2 billion had been extended through the program showing the reluctance of banks and local governments to get on board. And banks Balance Sheets have been squeezed. These are all questions we dont have answers for. The state council will hold a press briefing later this afternoon. The pboc will 10 along with relevant ministries. We will be watching for details from that press briefing. Annabelle thank you for that. The domestic recovery is expected to look a little patchy. What are we looking out for when it comes to Property Investments . Property is still one of the biggest drags on the economy. We expect Property Investments to extend declines again. That said, the government let government led investments could counter that and we are already seeing a steady drumbeat of progressive policies with a rollback of homebuying curves in city after city and now a new announcement on this buyback of excess housing inventory. We are not going to see the effects of that on the april reading just yet. We will have a few lingering effects of last years bond issuance being dispatched into infrastructure investment. We saw pmi reading for Construction Activity hitting a new high for april and that will help fix asset investments. Annabelle it is a big date dump so we get other things it is a big data dump so we get other things as well. Economists expect to see the economy coming out of a lull. We had disappointing numbers in march after a stronger than expected growth in the first quarter. The consensus is we will see Industrial Production leading the charge increasing by 1 each point from march on the back of stronger exports, in april. Retail sales is another we want to look closely out. The question is, will we see a balanced recovery or a persistent trend of investment and productions raising ahead of consumption. If you look ahead at the holiday data, a huge appetite for travel but Capital Spending still not breaking above prepandemic levels so people still keeping a tight grip on their wallet there. Haidi our chinese correspondent. President xi and Vladimir Putin have pledged to intensify cooperation. We are joined by our analyst from beijing. What have we seen in terms of how far this has progressed with this meeting . I think what we have seen throughout the war in ukraine is that no limits friendship has had certain limits. The chinese, while providing rhetorical support in places like the United Nations and providing economic support, china is Still Buying Russian Oil and commodities, exporting consumer goods, electronics to russia, but at the same time china has not provided the weapons that Vladimir Putin im sure would love to see china supply to its. That has not reduced the tensions. Its relationship with russia has brought in terms of beijings relationship with washington. We have seen raising the issue of dual used items. It is something we are still trying to figure out but certainly some limits to that relationship so far. Annabelle what about the limits when it comes to chinas Financial System . We know putin wants more access to that for russia but there is always the risk of u. S. Sanctions. That is right. The u. S. Has made it clear that any chinese banks, any Chinese Companies provide assistance to russias war effort, provides materials used to fight ukraine will come under american sanctions. If you are a large chinese financial institution, that is not what you want at this moment, off from u. S. Dollar markets. That is being taken seriously. Another reason why you see beijing and moscow both talking about the need to cooperate to fend off u. S. Containment. Beijing sees this as the long arm of american hegemony if anything else. Haidi that was our greater trimeris Senior Executive and editor, john from beijing. The imf has criticized the biden administrations moves too aggressively raise tariffs on some chinese goods including eves. The u. S. Economy would benefit from more of an equal trade. The imf has been stepping up criticism. We will have more ahead on bloomberg daybreak australia. Annabelle we have an update coming through this morning on what was a bloomberg scoop we had last week. It is as it relates to a Foundation Based in the u. S. And it has Different Research competitions. What we understand is that okta ptica accepted performing from huawei. Optica had chosen to conceal that. Saying it would make sense for a variety of donors, choosing to stay private. Huawei is blacklisted. And this has raised of the eyebrows of many lawmakers. We are hearing from two senior u. S. Lawmakers blasting optica for secretly accepting those funds flying in the face of efforts to keep foreigners from compromising u. S. Research. I was an exclusive bloomberg reporting and now we have a response from u. S. Lawmakers. Haidi remember when we spoke about this story when it broke on the bloomberg scoop, it was truly extraordinary. One of the ways that had been unexpected in a way that we could still see huawei influence funding a significant role. They were the sole funder when it came to this competition. They said they kept the role private to avoid appearing promotional. We are getting more details. We had asked about what some of the researchers had felt about this. We are hearing from the ceo saying this is nothing unusual about this. Essentially trying to defend that appeared we also heard from the Top Republican and democrat on the house of Representatives Committee on Technology Rising saying, this flies in the face of the Risk Awareness and transparency that they are all working towards in research security. They also said that failure to does close the involvement of huawei showed either deep ignorance of the use of policymaking or a woeful strategy. Annabelle it really raises more questions than it answers. There is a lot of interest in optica whether it has accepted other grants ordinations, from other countries or others. A lot of the research we are also unaware of where that funding came from. That is the response we are getting from u. S. Lawmakers to that bloomberg scoop. Looking at u. S. Futures, broadly we are seeing it be fairly steady. A lot of twists and turns over the session. U. S. Equities closing ultimately a little low. We did track above 40,000 for the dow jones. We were at 30,000 a few years ago. The question of the day for our mliv team is when will we reach 50,000 . A lot of questions for our guests in the next few hours. We will have more ahead on daybreak australia. This is bloomberg. Its an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. And you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you dont stop. The idea that we have saved five million peoples lives, its overwhelming. Its everything. Annabelle turning to the latest in attack. Jd. Coms listed shares closing higher and better than anticipated. Sales rose dust above the average analyst estimates. Jd slashed prices and ramped up to boost we Inflationary Forces<\/a> telling us the chances for a hard landing are higher than markets thank. Host and a busy friday in china with highlevel talks on the property sector. A third sale of special bonds and april Economic Data<\/a> that may show a modest improvement. Host we do have south korean jobs crossing the bloomberg. We see the Unemployment Rate<\/a> for april sticking to two point 8 . The expectations from economists were two point 8 and it is unchanged from the previous month. We were expecting potentially more of a softness. Up to 2. 9 percent. We did see level force participation increasing. But the jobless rate levels around this level are below the postpandemic average of 3. 3 . Bloomberg economics considering that the natural rate of unemployment so neither pushing up or down inflation. A tighter job market giving the bank of korea time before cutting rates. Labor participation something to watch especially as it comes to employment growth across manufacturers. A softness in services as well. You did in terms of the reaction one might expect to see. A softer start to trading this friday as we had to the end of the week. Look at how aussie futures are sitting. Mostly headed for early declines across the region. Tampering optimism linked to the u. S. Inflation reading we had midweek. The reassessment of the path forward for the fed is at play. Chicago nikkei futures looking neutral at the moment. Watching china after the early exuberance when it comes to potentially the report that we would see further action on the property sector. We are hearing that chinese regulators will be talking about property aid when they meet with banks later on today. A very busy day ahead for china not least because of the activity data you out in the next few hours. Look at u. S. Futures coming online. Fairly steady right now. In the context of the days trading session there are some notable factors. He had twists and turns but the dow jones stood out because we briefly touched the 40,000 mark. We closed slightly below it. Futures trading around the level. The question is whether markets are in overvalue territory. Cross assets as well. Treasury yields a little higher. A bit of a bounce back of the dollar after a drop to a onemonth low. Concerns building around inflation. We are about to hear from jamie more asher jp Morgans Jamie Dimon<\/a> and fed officials saying the Central Banks<\/a> should be keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. One was that cleveland fed president , take a listen. Incoming economic information indicates it is going to take longer to gain the confidence. So holding our restrictive stands for longer is prudent to at this point as we gain clarity about the path of inflation. I think the surprise would be higher rate because inflation did not go down. Inflation has been stubborn and could bounce up next year. I think inflation may be in the cards. It may have nothing to do with what we see today. Lets bring in our first guest, Burns Mckinney<\/a> fromnfj investment group. The market exuberance in reaction to the u. S. Cpi data, still questionable in terms of inflationary pressures in the core core. Is it surprising that we are seeing a reassessment of their reality check now . Burns it is not terribly surprising. We have been in this mode for the last couple of years where the equity markets are continuously trading raised on what the inflation data is because of the fact that might determine fed interestrate policy going forward. The cpi print this week and the u. S. Did seem to deflate the notion or their narrative that maybe we might have a real acceleration of inflation. A reacceleration of inflation. Jay powell and the fed have said there is probably rates may be higher for longer but at the same time, they are more likely to cut rates at this time at some point this year rather than raise them. They are in the sweet spot. They have time to be patient in spite of the fact that Interest Rate<\/a> policy they started hiking rates two years ago. Despite that, unemployment in the u. S. Has been at or below 4 month after month after month for over two years. It has been 50 years that we have seen unemployment stay this low for this long which buys them the time to be patient without worrying about breaking something. If you are on a road trip, you are Getting Better<\/a> mileage. Maybe that means you can go longer without stopping for gas. That puts the fed and a pretty good position. Do you go for the next however many months until we finally got a rate cut leading into the growth stocks, mega caps, or do you start rotating now . Burns we would really advise investors to start laboring into a portfolio now. Despite the fact that lower rates in the near term could benefit some of the tech high flyers, we believe that right now is a good time for investors to lean in to value equities. They have been out of favor for a long time. As a result, you have valuations on your side. Last year the u. S. Value index trailed the growth index by 30 percentage points. Historically when it has trailed by that margin, it has outperformed three quarters of the time in the next 1218 months because of the lag. Almost a 50 discount to the growth discount. Death growth index. It may be that while the fed may start lowering rates this year, the long end of the curve may stay a little higher for longer which bodes well for shorter duration things. And companies for which you are getting cash flow earnings today rather than down the road, that could be the catalyst to maybe get investors back into value stocks. They have been out of favor for over a decade and maybe they get there do. Are there any particular names that stand out to you . One thing that jumps out to us right now is the fact that investors going back a year ago, investors were terrified that we had a recession that would be a sure thing. Towards the end of 2023, the soft landing narrative began to take shape so investors had a flight to risk and they began to dump a lot of defensive areas. Places like utilities. When the sun is shining, people are looking for umbrellas. You cant play defense. A great example of that would be next era energy, one of the largest utilities. It trades at a discount right now on the s p 500 for the first time in six years. Only 5 of the time has it been this cheap. A 3 dividend yield is not the highest yield of utilities that one of the best growing. They have tripled the payout over the last decade. In addition to getting the largest regulated utility and florida, right now you pay a premium for the extra freebie you are getting now. They are the u. S. Leader in clean and renewable energy. What about opportunities outside of the u. S. . Are there any specific areas you are looking into in emerging markets, for instance . Burns overall we would argue the emerging market holds promise right now again. They have also been out of favor and have trailed the u. S. For a long time. If you look at pricetobook ratios, the msci emerging markets index is trading at such a discount to the s p 500. It has not been this relatively cheap since 1996. Going back 28 years. And if there is one thing that could drive a little bit of a comeback for emergingmarket equities, it may be that if the fed does finally got their freedom to lower Interest Rate<\/a>s later this year, that might weaken the dollar which would potentially spur a bit of a comeback in emerging markets. One of the incentives could be a better performance out of china. We have seen stocks come off the bottom. All you asians are still attractive. We are hearing noises that more policy action will be taken regarding the policy the property sector. Does this look like a fundamental rereading . Rerating . Burns it will always be volatile in the near term but for investors that have a 35 year time horizon, right now might be the time to chip away at exposure to china. Gaining momentum. Major policy errors over the last several years whereby you had stringent covid lockdowns that lasted too long, you had a regulatory onslaught against a lot of the tech Time Technology<\/a> companies in china and a lot of headwinds are turning into tailwinds. They have reopened the economy. It was never going to be a straight line, smoothly. If you take your like out of a cast, you have to walk for you can run. With respect to pancras serve requirements, with respect to bank reserve requirements, they are providing stimulus and you are starting to see the fruits of that. Gdp, the economy in china grew by a faster rate last quarter per versus faster rate last quarter versus the previous quarter. Despite that, you do have very pharaoh very favorable valuations. You have a market that is still trading at 80 discount to its longterm averages whereby for longterm investors there are opportunities in china for the types of companies that might benefit from a glowing but a growing middleclass. Many companies are sitting on tons of cash on the balance sheet. Host burns, thank you so much for your time. Burns mckinney. Coming up later indochina show, we speak exclusively to the Philippine Central Bank<\/a> governor as he signals rate cuts on the way. That big interview coming just after 9 00 in hong kong. Exclusive to bloomberg. The stories you need to know to get your day going in todays addition of daybreak. It is also available on mobile and bloomberg available anywhere. You can customize your settings. This is bloomberg. When you automate sales tax with avalara, you dont have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. Avalarahhh ahhh should i . Normally id hold. But. Taking the gains is smart here, right . Feel more confident with stock ratings from j. P. Morgan analysts in the chase app. When youve got a decision to make. The answer is j. P. Morgan wealth management. Annabelle chinas government is said to be planning a meeting friday morning with banks and regulators to discuss at the property market. The agenda include proposals to clear inventory. For more, we are joined by our chinese correspondent. We have already seen properties stocks rising in anticipation of this but what do we know about the meeting . The breadth of the invitees show how important this meeting is. We are looking as senior officials. They are all attending Via Video Conference<\/a> discuss this proposal to potentially buy back millions of homes from across the country with the help of state owned enterprise and using loans from state yanks. A lot of details yet to be sketched out. The big question is, how big of a scale is is going to be on how will they finance this . In early 2023 the government rolled out something similar on a smaller scale. They extended it they extended credit for a loaning facility on the plan was to get eight cities on a trial basis to buyback excess housing but as of march only 2 billion had been extended through the program showing the reluctance of banks and local governments to get on board. And banks Balance Sheets<\/a> have been squeezed. These are all questions we dont have answers for. The state council will hold a press briefing later this afternoon. The pboc will 10 along with relevant ministries. We will be watching for details from that press briefing. Annabelle thank you for that. The domestic recovery is expected to look a little patchy. What are we looking out for when it comes to Property Investments<\/a> . Property is still one of the biggest drags on the economy. We expect Property Investments<\/a> to extend declines again. That said, the government let government led investments could counter that and we are already seeing a steady drumbeat of progressive policies with a rollback of homebuying curves in city after city and now a new announcement on this buyback of excess housing inventory. We are not going to see the effects of that on the april reading just yet. We will have a few lingering effects of last years bond issuance being dispatched into infrastructure investment. We saw pmi reading for Construction Activity<\/a> hitting a new high for april and that will help fix asset investments. Annabelle it is a big date dump so we get other things it is a big data dump so we get other things as well. Economists expect to see the economy coming out of a lull. We had disappointing numbers in march after a stronger than expected growth in the first quarter. The consensus is we will see Industrial Production<\/a> leading the charge increasing by 1 each point from march on the back of stronger exports, in april. Retail sales is another we want to look closely out. The question is, will we see a balanced recovery or a persistent trend of investment and productions raising ahead of consumption. If you look ahead at the holiday data, a huge appetite for travel but Capital Spending<\/a> still not breaking above prepandemic levels so people still keeping a tight grip on their wallet there. Haidi our chinese correspondent. President xi and Vladimir Putin<\/a> have pledged to intensify cooperation. We are joined by our analyst from beijing. What have we seen in terms of how far this has progressed with this meeting . I think what we have seen throughout the war in ukraine is that no limits friendship has had certain limits. The chinese, while providing rhetorical support in places like the United Nations<\/a> and providing economic support, china is Still Buying Russian Oil<\/a> and commodities, exporting consumer goods, electronics to russia, but at the same time china has not provided the weapons that Vladimir Putin<\/a> im sure would love to see china supply to its. That has not reduced the tensions. Its relationship with russia has brought in terms of beijings relationship with washington. We have seen raising the issue of dual used items. It is something we are still trying to figure out but certainly some limits to that relationship so far. Annabelle what about the limits when it comes to chinas Financial System<\/a> . We know putin wants more access to that for russia but there is always the risk of u. S. Sanctions. That is right. The u. S. Has made it clear that any chinese banks, any Chinese Companies<\/a> provide assistance to russias war effort, provides materials used to fight ukraine will come under american sanctions. If you are a large chinese financial institution, that is not what you want at this moment, off from u. S. Dollar markets. That is being taken seriously. Another reason why you see beijing and moscow both talking about the need to cooperate to fend off u. S. Containment. Beijing sees this as the long arm of american hegemony if anything else. Haidi that was our greater trimeris Senior Executive<\/a> and editor, john from beijing. The imf has criticized the biden administrations moves too aggressively raise tariffs on some chinese goods including eves. The u. S. Economy would benefit from more of an equal trade. The imf has been stepping up criticism. We will have more ahead on bloomberg daybreak australia. Annabelle we have an update coming through this morning on what was a bloomberg scoop we had last week. It is as it relates to a Foundation Based<\/a> in the u. S. And it has Different Research<\/a> competitions. What we understand is that okta ptica accepted performing from huawei. Optica had chosen to conceal that. Saying it would make sense for a variety of donors, choosing to stay private. Huawei is blacklisted. And this has raised of the eyebrows of many lawmakers. We are hearing from two senior u. S. Lawmakers blasting optica for secretly accepting those funds flying in the face of efforts to keep foreigners from compromising u. S. Research. I was an exclusive bloomberg reporting and now we have a response from u. S. Lawmakers. Haidi remember when we spoke about this story when it broke on the bloomberg scoop, it was truly extraordinary. One of the ways that had been unexpected in a way that we could still see huawei influence funding a significant role. They were the sole funder when it came to this competition. They said they kept the role private to avoid appearing promotional. We are getting more details. We had asked about what some of the researchers had felt about this. We are hearing from the ceo saying this is nothing unusual about this. Essentially trying to defend that appeared we also heard from the Top Republican<\/a> and democrat on the house of Representatives Committee<\/a> on Technology Rising<\/a> saying, this flies in the face of the Risk Awareness<\/a> and transparency that they are all working towards in research security. They also said that failure to does close the involvement of huawei showed either deep ignorance of the use of policymaking or a woeful strategy. Annabelle it really raises more questions than it answers. There is a lot of interest in optica whether it has accepted other grants ordinations, from other countries or others. A lot of the research we are also unaware of where that funding came from. That is the response we are getting from u. S. Lawmakers to that bloomberg scoop. Looking at u. S. Futures, broadly we are seeing it be fairly steady. A lot of twists and turns over the session. U. S. Equities closing ultimately a little low. We did track above 40,000 for the dow jones. We were at 30,000 a few years ago. The question of the day for our mliv team is when will we reach 50,000 . A lot of questions for our guests in the next few hours. We will have more ahead on daybreak australia. This is bloomberg. Its an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. And you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you dont stop. The idea that we have saved five million peoples lives, its overwhelming. Its everything. Annabelle turning to the latest in attack. Jd. Coms listed shares closing higher and better than anticipated. Sales rose dust above the average analyst estimates. Jd slashed prices and ramped up to boost we Consumer Sentiment<\/a> in china. Baidus went higher after revenue grew at the slowest pace in over a year. Net income coming in stronger than projected thanks to costcutting. The results suggest baidu is still struggling to translate its advantage in generative ai into real revenue. Investors are warning that tsmcs stock surge they hit a regulatory roadblock. Funds governed by restrictions on single starts cannot add more tsmc equity and the even have to sell after the outside gains. Bnp paribas says european regulations which kept single to 10 . Sources say Software Makers<\/a> snowflake is in talks to acquire reka ai. Tech giants are been rushing to acquire startups working in that field. Thats got more on the outlook for ai with our next guest joining us from tokyo. Crawford del prete, the president of idc. You are in japan so we can get to what you are seeing in a moment but i wanted to start off more big picture. We are seeing the global chip battle intensified. Billions of dollars are being poured in from the u. S. , japan and even korea is putting funding into it. China, of course. Where do you see the leader emerging in that competition for ai supremacy between the u. S. , western powers and what is happening in china . Crawford thank you for having me. When you look at the overall Ai Semiconductor<\/a> marketplace, what is interesting right now is the way to play ai has been semiconductors. The reason for that is that we are seeing an infrastructure upgrade associated with the market with the structure we have in the cloud and how we need to process workloads associated with ai. Those workloads are dominated by u. S. Customers primarily around and video. What is so interesting is that people think about it as a gpu play with nvidia as a company that may be a passing fad. The reality is that nvidia has developed a very significant moat. Not only around the gpu but around the Software Platform<\/a> you need to write applications for the gpu architecture called code out. So we believe that is going to be a substantial mode for the Company Going<\/a> forward almost likened to what we saw in the Client Server<\/a> era with win celt where you had a Software Platform<\/a> and semiconductor platform that created an environment for innovation. And in a way, we are seeing the same set up with nvidia and their gpu and their software application. Or or platform. From an overall standpoint right now the western architectures were primarily driven by nvidia. They definitely have the advantage. I think you will see that continue to play out for a substantial period of time. Annabelle i want to keep talking about nvidia because it is one of the key earnings we are tracking next week. We have had so much investor enthusiasm around the stock with such sky High Expectations<\/a> across the big tech season. Can they continue to have that market advantage . Crawford the law of large numbers is going to mean that the absolute growth rate of the company is going to start to update your talking about to start to abate. I think you are going to see that there will be other companies. You will see amd with credible offerings in the marketplace and intel coming out with credible offerings. And you will see that that will drive pricing and it will also drive more competition in the marketplace. But as i mentioned, amd and nvidia and intel will be open and open source Software Platform<\/a> around their i think that will still give nvidia an advantage on the infrastructure side probably going into next year. It comes down to Investor Expectations<\/a> and the expectation for growth. Make no mistake, the mode that nvidia has developed is a investable mode over time. Now we will see the edge of the Network Enabled<\/a> by ai. We will see pcs, phones and by 2026, we believe 60 of pcs will have an ai element. They will be able to become part of the ai investments. Haidi we wanted to get your views on china. How close the competition is getting to make significant difference closing the gap in r d and also your assessment of how effective and the longevity of what beijing has done as well, including the chip hoarding . Crawford when you look at china and how effective they have been at chip hoarding, that will be a nearterm opportunity. It has to happen longterm is china has to develop an ecosystem, an independent ecosystem for ai development. And that will be driven by semiconductor companies, primarily Companies Like<\/a> huawei and high silica and as well as their start up infrastructure which is going to allow a lot of custom silica to be developed by a lot of the hyper scaler cloud participants out there. In china i think you will see more of a lumpy road. You will see situations where they have to be able to develop leading Edge Technology<\/a> for their own uses internally. I would say we will probably see that some of the hoarding that happened run out. And then cycles will develop in china where they are transitioning to their own inside of china developed architectures. And that may mean a lumpy environment going forward. Haidi how much more difficult do you the environment to get we are going into november with the geopolitical posturing upfront, or do you think the bifurcation, the competition is already pretty well set . Crawford i think you are going to see that the competition is fairly well set. From a china standpoint, it will turn into how quickly they can internally within china, innovate. I would not underestimate. I think you will see a bit of a choppy environment. I dont think you will see things get a lot worse in terms of where we are today and how china is able to either access the technology or be able to develop their own Technology Going<\/a> forward. As i indicated, that is going to take some time. That is going to contribute to some of the lumpiness i am describing. Annabelle we have seen japan making big efforts to attract international chipmakers to its markets. They also have ambitious chip plans. You are in tokyo now. What are the conversations you are having and are you seeing progress on that front . Crawford we are seeing progress. When you look at the investment you are seeing in japan around semiconductors, one company is investing heavily to be a leading supplier in japan and they are not only looking to build a foundry capability. They are looking to build an ecosystem up in the northern part of the country. And i think that as well, tsmc making an investment in japan is going to drive a significant amount of innovation and creation of a new ecosystem. I think you really have to think about people think about the old way japan thought about the Semiconductor Industry<\/a> which is more of a captive industry where fujitsu made chips for its own uses. Now we are moving into a new era where you have Companies Like<\/a> for example toyota or honda will be making edge devices in the form of driverless vehicles. They have a motivation to work with a local supplier here to have significant access to technology. And i think what you are going to see over the next decade and sooner is the investment that is happening in japan around semiconductors, it will mean we will see a new engineering ecosystem start to develop. It is going to include ai but it will also include leading edge foundry capacity that will represent incremental ability to have semiconductors available across the world from japan. So i think it is a rebalancing of where we can expect to see not only Semiconductors Made<\/a> but where the engineering around semiconductors happens. I think you will see that shift in japan. Im seeing signs of it now. Haidi this is a big big picture, a moonshot question. What is next when it comes to ai . There has been a lot of excitement over the intersection of quantum when we got there especially here in australia. A huge amount of government and private investment. Is that something you are watching and can you give us an indication of what that would look like . Crawford before we get to quantum, lets spend little time in terms of what will happen with ai. This stage was set for ai a number of years ago with the emergence of the cloud, mobility and highspeed networking. Now we see that ai is pervading what we call horizontal use cases in things like google gemini and things like copilot from microsoft and chatgpt. The next phase will be ai starting to pervade what we call industry use cases. Ai will become embedded into Software Applications<\/a> that are used in functions so the enterprise like sales or Client Services<\/a> or hr. Then you will cai moving into vertical applications where we see it used in health care or manufacturing or financial services. We will see wide ai pervasively being used in all these different kinds of applications. Quantum will come even beyond we now have ai assisting in jobs in these different vertical use cases and that will happen over the next couple of years. Quantum we wont see widely used for many, many years. Where we will start to see quantum processing very complicated workloads. Workloads that are around is like simulation. Workloads that are around areas like advanced security. And for quite some time, we are not quantum is not going to be something that individuals or even largescale enterprises are touching to a large degree. The big change we will see in ai is that today, over half of the investment in ai is happening at the semiconductor level. By 2027 about a third will happen in services, one third in software and one third in infrastructure including semiconductors. And that is going to be the big shift. More parts of the ecosystem will be participating in the ai industry. Annabelle crawford, really great insights. The president at idc. Yet more ahead on daybreak australia. This is bloomberg. When you automate sales tax with avalara, you dont have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. Avalarahhh ahhh should i . Normally id hold. But. Taking the gains is smart here, right . Feel more confident with stock ratings from j. P. Morgan analysts in the chase app. When youve got a decision to make. The answer is j. P. Morgan wealth management. Annabelle jp morgans Ceo Jamie Dimon<\/a> does u. S. Has to stay engaged with china. He says washington and beijing have common interests and are not natural enemies. The geopolitical situation is very tense as well as with ukraine and russia and iran, israel, north korea. We have never had nuclear blackmail and this is affecting our relationship with china. It is hard to have a great relationship with china with the ukraine war going on and we are on different sides of that. I think it is the right thing for america to fully and deeply engage with china competitively. Every nation will do what is in its own interests so should america. We should to find that clearly and properly. If there is unfair trade, negotiate that. But engagement is the right thing to do. China is not a natural enemy of the united states. They have a lot of their own problems. We can Work Together<\/a> as best we can. We have common interests. Climate, antinuclear proliferation and antiterrorism. Cautious. Look at china from a risk reward basis and it used to be very good but its not so good anymore. All these things can go wrong. Remember, i forget the number but there are 1500 all tea nationals in china. They are not leaving china. We have to serve our clients there. We look at china and hong kong as one at this point from a risk standpoint. What does a Trump Administration<\/a> mean for the u. S. Economy . I dont know. Is it because it is unpredictable . If you look at history, the elected president may not affect the next year. I think the more important thing is what we do the geopolitical situation. Ive always been quite clear that American Leadership<\/a> is provided to keep world free and safe for democracy which means economic alliances. I think we should spend more time on trait. It means nato. It means it russia should not win in ukraine. If they do, i think it could tear the western world. I know you have ruled out being the treasury secretary. What would it take for you to be in politics . Im not sure i want to do Something Like<\/a> that. Even if you got the call . I love my job. Annabelle that was jamie dimon speaking to bloombergs francine lacqua. A quick check of markets. 10 minutes out from the open. Broadly we are set up for a bit of downside pressure. It tracks that the u. S. Session overnight, we had a few jitters coming through from the inflation outlook. It official saying rates should stay higher for longer. Nikkei futures, the singapore contract, pointing to a drop of. 7 . An interesting dynamic in japan with all of the investor interest and exuberance in Japanese Equities<\/a> this year, we had seen other markets attract japanese assets including in china, overheating trading above the asset valuations. Now we see the flip sides coming through in japanese equity. The rally in chinese stocks is giving fresh impetus to a host of ones and japan, those with exposure to china, arising along with their counterparts in a rebound along with the msci china index. Our analyst joining us from tokyo. The rally from chinese stocks seems to be spreading to other parts of asia now. It seems that we are seeing some signs of some reversal of an earlier trend to buy japan and sell china especially as chinese stocks are really rallying these days on cheap valuation and policy support and that has been supporting some of the japanese stocks that have high exposure to the Chinese Market<\/a> and chinese economy. Specifically what was impacted earlier about the boycott around the water release and industrials that heavily rely on chinese demand. So from the Earnings Presentation<\/a> we are hearing Companies Say<\/a> that the china demand and inventory are improving and analysts are saying the worst has been priced in and that is over. However, in terms of what level of recovery we will see and when that recovery is going to calm, that still remains undetermined but we are still seeing the signs of things bottoming and the stocks are on the uptrend to rebound. Haidi overall for japan, how are we doing . The redirection of flows from china was one of the big factors to begin with at the start of the rally. Are we seeing money flowing back . To some extent. Some people say it is a nearterm risk to watch. Most people say that japanese stocks are right now range bound mostly driven by macro factors, geopolitical tension in the middle east or the more hawkish tone from the fed. However, once that macro factor is over, the fundamentals of japanese stocks remains strong. Dollarbased investors are still quite cautious when it comes to the currency volatility as we are seeing the dollarbased return for japanese stocks lagging. Lagging its global peers. Blackrock mentioned, we will have to see the currency stabilize around the level of 150 against a dollar in order for Global Investors<\/a> to feel more comfortable coming back into japan. That would be some of the factors we are watching. Annabelle our asia equity reporters. We have more ahead on daybreak australia. This is bloomberg. Haidi elon musks sidelight Company Starlink<\/a> is transforming communication across the globe. Bloomberg originals has looked at how its dominance is encouraging deep coded rivals. Deeppocketed rivals. The largest constellation of satellites is run by a material individual that needs no introduction. It is this guy. If he achieves this by maintaining a vast Relay Network<\/a> in an area higher than a jetliner or bullet and below assadlike. And below satellites. And it accomplished this in less time than it took James Cameron<\/a> to make a second avatar movie. Launching up to 42,000 satellites. The speed and relative success has raised eyebrows, concerned ones in government and exciting ones in the boardroom of rivals. A company trying to does wrapped a somewhat complacent marketplace. Disrupt a somewhat complacent marketplace. Annabelle you can see that documentary in full on the channel. And investments beyond earth, you can also visit bloomberg. Com space. Lets check on the business of currencies. Taking a look at the japanese yen. It is a little weaker against the greenback. We saw a rebound coming through for the dollar as well but trading around the 155 mark. We are hearing from japanese government officials saying he is keeping the risk of rising yields weighing on the budget in mind. They are still committed to the Fiscal Consolidation<\/a> goal as well. Some of the headlines we are monitoring as we also hear from a former boj official saying rate hikes could be on the way. When i was your age, we never had anything like this. What . Wifi . Wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. The basement. So i can finally throw that party. And invite shannon barnes. Dream do come true. Xfinity gives you reliable wifi with walltowall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. Maybe well even get married one day. I wonder what i will be doing . Probably still living here with mom and dad. Fast reliable speeds right where you need them. Thats walltowall wifi with xfinity. Annabelle mr. Daybreak asia. We are counting down to faith major market opens. A bit of a subdued session today. Traders may be rethinking their expectations around inflation. Jamie dimon told us the chances of things going on right are higher than people think going wrong are higher than people think. Haidi yes, being brought down to earth a little bit. Not surprising after we had record high after record highs across an array of asset classes. An exuberant reaction to those cpi numbers. 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