Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240703 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg July 3, 2024

Also. We are tracking the potential job warning, in response to what we are seeing in the yen, jgb yields as well, continuing to move higher and closer to the 1 mark. Suzuki saying they are committed to achieving the Fiscal Consolidation goal. What else we are watching, it comes down to expectations around where the boj goes next. We have been hearing from you next to the my chief economist at the bank, saying that doj could raise rates as soon as june, maybe even space for rate hikes four 2024. Today in the session, we are watching the japanese yen and also keeping an eye on equities, a little under pressure so far. Still monitoring from earnings. Key to track will be whether that doj cuts its bond buying neck he saw on monday. Given the backdrop of the weaker yen, the yield gap between japan and the u. S. Japan, lets switch nmc switch and see how south korea is trading. The outlook is a bit weaker, not quite the magnitude of the dump that can japan so far, but still the kospi is 0. 2 of the dump fed and the korean won looking weaker as well. We had jobs numbers coming out earlier today. The Unemployment Rate staying at 2. 8 in april matching the consensus estimate. Again, no change for the month prior here, tells us they are still too tight because the labor market is still at elevated labels elevated levels compared to what it was in the pandemic. The be ok still has some time before. Haidi the insignia we are seeing a bit of mutant upside. A lot of it is up to what comes out of china today. We have the proposed meetings with banks and policymakers. We had to speculation that more meaningful measures to support the Property Market are on their way, including the report suggesting a proposal for local governments to buy unsold inventory of homes is on the table potentially. We are watching that because it has been living the life that iron ore and aussie dollar this week, we are seeing the aussie dollar trading higher, 0. 6 681. Bonds following the trajectory that we saw with treasuries overnight as well. It remains front and center in terms of fed officials suggesting Interest Rates should stay higher for longer. The latest voice coming from Cleveland Fred president loretta mester, who spoke and said it could take longer to get to that 2 target. The incoming information to indicate they will take longer to regain the confidence, so holding of a restrictive stance for longer is prudent at this point. Annabelle lets bring in audrey goh, head of Asset Allocation at Standard Chartered wealth management. Seems like after the u. S. Inflation print, we had traders optimistic that inflation is trending downward. Now we have caution from fed officials and also from jamie dimon saying there is a high risk that things dont go to flank. Do we need to have more caution in the markets at this point in time, do you think . Audrey audrey where inflation is concerned, our view is that we should see inflation continued to progress along the way. If you look at the most recent economic data, we have been on the weak side. Industrial production in the month of april, that has stalled. It is ultimately going to feed into inflation pressure over time. Disinflation will still continue. The road may be bumpy nonetheless we expected to continue to allow the fed to cut rates twice towards the later part of this year. Annabelle so if you have that sort of environment, you sent two fed rate cuts priced in by a lot of investors at this point in time, what outperforms in that market . Which asset class in which regions, for instance . Audrey we still like u. S. Equities. Valuations have always been a Sticking Point when it comes to u. S. Equity investors, but if you look at the latest earnings season, the q1 earnings season which is almost over by now, most of the companys surprise to the upside. We have also seen analysts revising up their earnings estimates for this year and into next year as well, so we do believe that is the fundamentally the trend in the right direction. If we do get a rate cut, that should feed into easier monetary policy. The u. S. Generally benefits from a lower in certain environment. So thats one area we like. In addition, we like Japanese Equities, there is a lot of things going on for Japanese Equities when it comes to reforms, the country emerging out from inflation into a more normalized inflation regime. During this period, we are starting to see consolidation in Japanese Equities because of the strand in the yen. There is a great opportunity for investors when it comes to. Haidi Japanese Equities that has been some redirection back to china away from japan after flanders went to the opposite direction. For china, do you see this as a shortterm tactical rebound, or is it insignificant significant rereading of ms. Gossetts . Audrey is it a significant rerating of risk assets . Audrey for now, i think that it is quite technical in nature. If you think about it, a lot of investors are light on china, quite bearish on china to begin with, so there is some rotation out of the u. S. Which is really outperforming tremendously, entertainment where it is cheaper. Into china, where it is cheaper. Even today, the policymakers are meeting with bankers to consider whether they want to enact a proposal for developers to buy up some of the unused or unsold homes in the market. That would bode well for investor sentiment, and more importantly, home Buyer Sentiment as well. One of the key concern homebuyers have is, even if i buy the house today, perhaps it will not be delivered to me because of finance issues. So it should go a long way to alleviate these concerns in china. Haidi what sectors would you be liking . It is interesting that you highlight consumer. We are expecting in the data out today, to continue to show the drug consumers drag from consumers . Audrey who continue to focus on some of the more consumption oriented sectors such as consumer discretionary, Technology Stocks as well, in china. But for us, the key is to focus on areas which has strategic importance with chinese authorities. Lets not forget this is an Election Year so the companies which are industrialled or manufacturingled tend to be more sensitive to rhetoric from the u. S. Like recently we heard biden imposing tariffs for ev companies and energy companies. These areas will be more impacted which is why we focus more on domestic consumption companies. We believe they will be more resilient in a year where there are elections going on in the u. S. Haidi audrey, one of the sort of challenges for china and the outlook Going Forward hinges on what happens with the property sector, like you mentioned. What are your expectations . We are hearing regulators might meet with the banks, perhaps there might be a direct buying of these unsold homes by the local governments. Would that measure restore confidence not just in property, but in all edges and industries and companies that rely on it . Audrey certainly, i think it would be probably moving into a more interventionist phase by the government thinking of measures to up the market directly. It would boost sentiment in china. Certainly, it would be less expensive than what we see in developing markets today. But really what monitor its rantings. If you look at earnings expectations in china, the street has readily revised down chinese expectations from 15 to 16 earlier this year to 10 at this point in time. We have yet to see any stabilization in earnings. There will be one key important indicator to watch. Annabelle we have actually got a terminal chat, taking a look at the moves we are seeing in Japanese Equities, ones that track chinese assets. We are seeing a runup in those. Its an interesting dynamics, because on the flipside, with all of the interest and exuberance around Japanese Equities, we have seen ets and that track those in china trading above their net asset valuation of months ago. Seems like, as you say, there is a flow being directed towards chinese equities now and more of an understanding that perhaps now is a good entry point for mainland stocks. But how much does that risk, the runup we have seen in japanese markets, in turn . Audrey this is one unit that investors can access the proxy to china without investing in china. For example, european mucus is one of the trend to accept the trip European Companies are trying to access the china recovery. Without being impacted by certain rhetoric in the u. S. This is one area investors want to play. Without necessarily china risk. It is certainly one area for investors to be looking at as well. Haidi always great to chat with you, audrey goh is head of Asset Allocation at Standard Chartered wealth management. You can get a roundup of all the stories you need to know to get your day going on todays edition of daybreak. Bloomberg subscribers can go to dayb on their terminals. It is also available on the bloomberg anywhere app. You can customize the settings as well, so you can only get the stories on the industries and assets that you care about. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Discover our newest resort, sandals st. Vincent and the grenadines now open. Visit sandals. Com or call 1800sandals you dont have to worry about things like changing tax rates, exemption certificates or filing returns. AvalarAhhh Ahhh Ahhh ahhh annabelle chinas government is said to be planning a meeting friday morning with banks and regulators to discuss the Property Market. Sources say the agenda includes a proposal to clear excess housing inventory. For more, we are joined by our china correspondent. Seems like a coordinated push, they want to end this property slump. What do we know about the meeting taking place this morning . Guest is supposed to be a huge meeting, the list of invitees ranges from senior officials in the, housing industry to the local government and financial regulators and that goes to underscore how important this meeting is. They are looking to discuss ways to buy back excess inventory in the market. The scope bloomberg broke last friday. The question is how big at a scale that will be and how the government will finance it because earlier attempts to do this at a smaller scale in 2023 met with little success, very little takeup rate from banks. Their Balance Sheets are being squeezed by nonperforming loans and the fact that they are being repeatedly asked to extend cheap credit to developers and borrowers. Defend local Government Debt has reached 56 percent of gdp last year, so the Big Questions there about how sustainable this is. Then this afternoon we are expecting the state council to hold a press briefing. The pboc is expected to be there along with other ministries. Sources say they could be discussing expanding this wide list of and developers who developers and the code Access Funding for projects that were previously disqualified, as well. Haidi it is china domestic activity data day as well. What do you expect to see with Property Investment indicators . Minmin property remains the biggest drag on the economy so we expect investments to extend the in april, although governmentled investment could help counter that and already we are starting to see a steady drumbeat of progrowth signals in recent weeks with city after city announcing a rollback of homebuying caps coupled with the potential meeting this morning to buy back excess housing in the market. Of course we will not see the effects of that in the april reading just yet, but we do see pmi data for construction hitting a new high this year in april. That suggests we are feeling the trickledown effects of last years trillion yuan bond issuance going to Infrastructure Investments. That will help fix Infrastructure Investment numbers stay resilient this april. There is fixed asset investment, Industrial Production and retail sales that we will be tracking. Annabelle we saw a pickup in the economy in the first quarter, will that extend when we get these numbers . Minmin yes, the economists are expecting us to pull out of this lull in the economy after the numbers in march. Retail sales are what we need to look out for a closely because the question is whether we will see a balanced recovery in the economy or that to track recovery with Industrial Production still racing ahead of consumption. If you look at sales of automobiles and housing appliances, demand remains tepid despite the government program, the rollout of this tradein program with onetime subsidies to encourage businesses and households to upgrade their equipment. Mixed results of their. We expect Industrial Production to take the lead, with analysts expecting a one percentage point increase from march on the back of strong exports in april. Bloomberg haidi s china correspondent minmin low ahead of the big data dump today. Chinese president xi jinping and russian president Vladimir Putin pledged to intensify cooperation against what they described as washingtons containment policies. China executive editor jeanluc joins us from beijing. This is the closelywatched meeting given we already know this is a selfdescribed friendship without limitations. How much closer have they gotten . John i think over the course of the war in ukraine, it has been a real test for this relationship and so far, the relationship has come through it in a fairly strong position. This meeting between president xi and putin was the 40th time they have met since xi jinping came to power so there is a long history of relationships, there are factors underlying it that push them together. You underlined the issues they both have with the united states. That is going to continue. If the war in ukraine has not stopped it, i think it means the relationship is Strong Enough that it will take a lot to do real how well they get along de rail how well they get along. Annabelle we have moscows trade with china hitting a record. But we arent seeing the same in reverse. Will that cause any sort of friction, do you think . John chinese valuing of russian exports, i think that has continued to be strong. There is demand for energy and commodities in china. The issue is how much china will exports to russia. Washington has made it clear it finds objectionable chinese supplies of dual use technology is going to russia, things that could have a civilian use, but also a military use. Anything china does that could be seen as helping to power of the war effort in ukraine will cause real objections in washington. That has caused threats of sanctions against chinese banks and other chinese corporations and so that is partly why the chinese stance on that situation has been so cautious. We have seen from secretary blinken saying there is no evidence china is supplying weapons. I think Vladimir Putin would like to see china do more in terms of exporting supplies of technology and equipment. Whether or not happens i we have to wait and see. Annabelle that was our Greater China Senior Executive editor john in beijing. The International Monetary fund has criticized that biden administrations moves to aggressively raise tariffs on chinese goods. It says the u. S. Economy would benefit more from open trade that imf has been stepping up criticism of its biggest and most influential shareholder over surging debt levels, trade restrictions, in the currency impact of tide fed policy. More to come on daybreak asia. This is bloomberg. Do you want to close out . Should i . Normally id hold. But. Taking the gains is smart here, right . Feel more confident with stock ratings from j. P. Morgan analysts in the chase app. When youve got a decision to make. The answer is j. P. Morgan wealth management. Annabelle jp morgan Ceo Jamie Dimon says he is more worried about inflation than markets appeared to be. Speaking at the Global Markets conference in paris, he says significant price pressures are still influencing the u. S. Economy, supporting the case for rates to stay higherforlonger. We have had turbulence and we have had good health in the markets for a while. They are predicting a soft landing and you see that in the stock prices which are high, credit spreads are kind of low, markets are wide open. That is all good. I could point to a lot of times in history where that was true in the next year it was untrue. So we will see. I dont pay as much attention to monthly numbers as most people do. So what do you think the future is for inflation . I am worried about it. We have had a great fiscal deficits. Inflation may not go away the way people expect. I look at the future and a lot of the things we look at our inflationary the greening of the economy, the restructuring of trade, fiscal deficits. There are a lot of Inflationary Forces in front of us that may keep it higher than people expect. The surprise would be rates higher, inflation is higher. That could stall growth. Geopolitics is another issue that could be determinative in how our economy does next year and we are just not going to know. You think it is 5050 whether the fed cuts or hikes next time around . I dont pay much attention to that. The fed will have to follow the data. I dont know what the data is going to say. I think they are doing the right thing to be patient right now and see what is going to happen. They may not know for a couple of months. But no big correction. If you dont pay that, much attention to it that means you arent worried . That i am worried. Rates are going higher my view is that wh

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