non-farm payrolls and “
U-2,” or the overall unemployment rate (not the band):
While employment has risen steadily and unemployment has fallen likewise, neither has recovered their level from prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank forecasts further declines in the headline U-2 number, especially following the recent passage of the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package:
When looking at employment and payroll numbers, it is helpful to distinguish between the
household and
establishment survey numbers. The household number is calculated by surveying 60,000 families about their employment status, and any individual with more than one job is only counted once. This data is the source for the reported unemployment rate number in the chart above.