Building Economic Momentum – Navigating The Widening Recovery April 12, 2021 Our outlook for the U.S. economy has improved. We now expect real GDP growth over the course of 2021 to be close to 7%, which would be the fastest annual growth rate since 1984. Monetary conditions in the U.S. continue to look strong as do measures of fundamental economic health, such as purchasing manager indices (PMIs). The following graph shows the three-month moving average PMI minus the 12-month moving average PMI. When the 12-month is higher than the three-month, the pace of economic growth is expected to be slowing. Conversely, when the three-month is higher than the 12-month, as is the case today, we expect the pace of economic growth to be accelerating.