Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20240622 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange June 22, 2024

Want to be. Auto stocks drive markets to the green after car sales hit a 5. 5 year high in june amid Strong Demand for luxury brands. Time for a change. Swatch has its best day in over two years as investors shrug off a 20 fall in profit focussing on the watch makers positive outlook. Greece passed the austerity measures required for a bailout. Tsipras urged lawmakers to approve reforms. 229 voted in favor of the bill. Chaos was outside parliament. Parts of the square were set ablaze as they chanted we have been betrayed. And anger inside parliament. Half of the no votes came from syriza as they condemned a very black day for democracy in europe. He wrote a scathing blog in which he likened the bailout to fiscal water boarding. No surprise that he would vote against that deal. He has been very outspoken. Yesterday we saw the deputy finance minister stepping down because he simply couldnt stand behind the deal. Whats so interesting here is that this vote went through because of support across all parties in general apart from some divided across here. The same sorts of parties that used to be in government that at the time had a deal in place more favorable on greece. They must be sitting there saying admit you got this wrong. Played hard ball and ended up with a tougher deal and youre only getting the vote passed because of support from us. They must be so frustrated because five months ago they had a primary surplus, growth was coming through and the terms of the deal was less stringent. It all went down the drain. In the matter of five or six moss. It did. Greece set to dominate the ecb meeting today amid concerns over the countrys banks which have been closed for 2. 5 weeks. Julia is live with what to expect. Thanks so much, wilf. Greece is going to be one of the key focuses in the q and a at least as far as mario draghi is concerned. What are they going to do about the emergency liquidity assistance . That vote last night was effectively a green light to allow mario draghi to raise that emergency liquidity assistance. Theyre finding themselves in a difficult position. We have concerns about tim pacts right now and the need for recapitalization and we dont have a third bailout deal yet. We have other votes to happen in other countries so farce the ecb is concerned its likely that they stand back and watch and see what happens here and that ties to the scramble weve seen to come up with interim financing. Particularly to get us over the payment july 20th. Were at least having a Conference Call later on today and thats something well be trying to thrash out then. Im interested in the threat of contagion and how much support theyre going to give the banks. I wonder if theyll be pushed on capital controls and the fact that its already closed. Surely it isnt worth the same as in cash despite the fact that we reached a deal. What is mr. Draghi going to say on that side . And this is incredibly hard for greece to get out of because the capital controls were imposed . What are you eluding to . Saying the greek euro doesnt value the same as a german euro. Im saying id take cash and german bank account. This is the key question going forward. Obviously in terms of the greek Banking Sector now theres a situation where if you try to lift the capital controls or open the banks, people are still going to be afraid and when we came out of the meeting at the weekend the risk of a grexit isnt off the table. We cant tell at this stage how long theyre going to remain but this is also at the crux of the argument. They need a guarentee. They need a third bailout and assurances and guarentees over what the future is and as much as we got the vote signed off last night and we got the other votes in other european parliaments there still needs to be implementations for the greeks. Im sure hell be asked and be batting off the questions and reminding everybody that they stand ready in a worst Case Scenario to do what it takes to stabilize the markets. They said in april they would raise the amount of buying that they can do in a month. Weve barely seen them adjust that which is quite interesting. Particularly given yields in the rise since the last meeting. But what hell also draw a distinction between is what was inflationary yields rising and what was perhaps concerns about a greek and potential contagion rising there too. Overall the ecb should be relaxed. If we look at inflation that is back inflationary territory. We have some activity indicators indicators, if we ignore greece they should be pretty content in the european recovery. I agree with you. Its as far as everywhere else is concerned. 0. 6 growth available for q2. We did see 0. 2 for the last month. A little bit low but were talking slight. If you tie that to what weve seen as far as a come down in some of the oil prices recently that gives him the opportunity to be a little bit more dovish here just to contain any concerns about contagion from this too. Its a sweet spot. The lending is still a problem. Mortgage demand is still healthier and Corporate Lending is still a problem. Its what a numberover analysts were hoping for. There is still elements where further support can be provided. Hell reiterate that qe is here until the Third Quarter of next year and of course well be willing to do more if the inflation stats dont come back in line to what theyre hoping near the target. Julia, thank you so much for that. Well check back in with you a couple of times during the show. A sign of the times, which is your favorite ecb sign . The boring permanent one or the exciting new inflatable cnbc version . We might be bias but do head online and cast your vote. You can vote as many times as you like. Its not like a formal election. Do get online and vote. Do you think its only cnbc staff voting . Were very biased here. Probably and i dont think were winning. Were not . No thats really bad. Our viewers are letting us down. I cant imagine people randomly outside of staff and viewers are voting. Anyway moving on shares are trading higher after they beat earnings expectations in the Second Quarter despite battling head winds in the main markets of sweden and denmark. Were now joined on the phone by the ceo how exactly are you dealing with the negative Interest Rates. Youre not passing those on to your clients. Why not . Its a very unusual situation and we look at the Customer Relationship as a full one so to ask our household customers to pay for the deposits we would not really benefit anyone. I think they understand that they get a benefit for not paying negative rates right now. They have the market price thats negative in denmark and sweden. In the case of sweden do you actually think this move in negative territory was warranted . And you just said this is a measure that might be temporary. Who knows how long its going to be in place for. In denmark for quite a long time. In switzerland for a number of months and i cant see it end there. It is not normal. I will say particularly in sweden which runs a growth rate between 2. 5 and 3 . Its of course not normal to have negative rates and the only reason is of course that ecb is having a very lax policy. There must be an incentive to save and invest and that can only happen with a normal yield curve and positive interest rate. I think normalization is ahead of us starting in the u. S. But it will be ahead of us and then we will go back to normal territory. It can last for the quarter to come of course. Its responding to the low Interest Rates which helped your impressive set of numbers. How worrying is that demand for swedens Housing Market which is not underperforming in recent years. Yeah but its not very short but of course we need to ensure that we dont create a bubble so both the banks and the inspection but also the politicians are now looking at how to avoid or the customers take excessive loans in their houses. We have already introduced requirements and we will have more. Its bound to create some bubbles if we dont take care. Lets touch on the norwegian economy. Nice set of results there for you as well. The results dont include the last two week sell off in oil prices. Would you expect the norwegian economy to suffer in the second half of the year . Not really. Its proven very resilient. I think that first of all they have a good Balance Sheet and theyre doing well and many operators have been well prepared and the rest of the economy is doing quite well right now so i think we will see the resilience weve seen in the past 6 to 12 months continue. Some what lower growth rates than a year ago but in clearly positive territory. About 1. 5 . Were not too worried but of course if it lasts forever then there will be some effects. Particularly around the west coast where we have all the oil service companies. Just very briefly, obviously, greece is really still making the headlines and the euro zone Banking Sectors direct exposure to it is very limited but do you think investors markets are underestimating the indirect effect on it in terms of the hint of sentiment . Now we have a shortterm solution coming up with political and its more the major longterm. You can say for every year the european economy gets more resilient. Were looking into growth rates if europe. End of the year. 2 run rate. The more resilient it gets the less of a systemic problem that greece poses so its very good that we see the shortterm solution and it just might be so that all the measures being put in in greece now will actually put greece in the right direction. I certainly hope that and then we will start to forget about it in the markets. Thank you so much for joining us today. Much appreciated it. Now lets focus on european markets. They have strengthened through the last hour in particular having opened only slightly positively. Over 1 of gains in the main continental european forces. Germany, france italy, all up over 1 . The ftse 100 up. 5 . This follows the fact that the vote did get through the Greek Parliament yesterday. Positive toward the start of the week and end of the week now that its past the greek vote. Auto stocks are the best performing sector here in europe today. Significant gains across the board. 3 up the best part of 2. 5 . It comes after sales in june hit a 5. 5 year high. As i said fear leading the back with 17. 7 jump in sales. Demand for luxury cars helped drive the numbers with porche among the stand out performers. Now that we have a greek deal, focus has gone back on the fundamental difference in Monetary Policy out look for europe and the u. S. That saw another rally in the u. S. Dollar yesterday and again continued today. Were at 10906. Nearly below 109. On monday we crossed above 111 briefly so a particularly soft week for the euro this week. 10907 as we look at things now. Whats coming up . A lot of cool stuff coming up on the show. Hailing uber and hating on uber. Why its dividing opinion in washington. Plus as donald trump claims his 10 billion fortune makes him too hard to regulate were asking can you ever be too rich . And we reveal who is tweeting for billionaire carl icahn. Dont miss it. Well be back in two. Are you moving forward fast enough . Everywhere you look, it strategy is now business strategy. And a partnership with hp can help you accelerate down a path created by people, technology and ideas. To move your company from what it is now. To what it needs to become. The u. S. May be at full employment before then. Williams a voter on the fomc this year is seen as a centerist whose views are in line with janet yellen. Janet yellen goes back to capitol hill today for the second part of her testimony on Monetary Policy. She testifies at 2 30 p. M. Eastern. She told house panel the fed is likely to raise rates later this year and turmoil overseas probably wont effect the u. S. Economy. A decision on our part to raise rates will say no the economy doesnt stink. Were close to where we want to be and we now think the economy needs higher rates. There have been head winds and weve tried to overcome them. Yellen might want to raise rates this year but she cant. Thats the verdict of the bond king that told cnbc at the delivering alpha conference that the central bank overestimated u. S. Economy growth. I think its difficult for the fed to raise rates without nominal gdp increasing and they have a problem with the pce deflator which is not trending higher like some of the other inflation measures most notably the employment cost index which looks like a rising trend and with it being the favorite indicator of inflation i dont see how they can tighten with that indicator trending lower and certainly nowhere near the 2 level. I actually think he may have a point there because theres still the big disconnect between the market and janet yellen. Take a look at fed futures now, they barely price in 125 basis point hike by the end of the year but she said two times in one week now that thats a done deal. She still needs to do some work as to convincing the market. She is a little bit more hawkish than the rest. Thats what she was doing yesterday. Will she maintain her flexibility and try to telegraph its coming in september or later this year. She went for the latter. Shes trying to tell the market thats coming. It is appropriate to raise the target. Interesting what you say, yesterday by the end of the day we saw yields come down but thats because of general risk off sentiment but the two year start of the curve did n fact spike as she started talking before that happened. I would say shes trying to telegraph that this is coming and september seems more likely than not but your point at the difference in the market is definitely indicative. Definitely but the dollar did react quite well. Exactly. Or i mean it was higher by quite a lot against the euro and the markets were focussing on the yield differentials so that tells you a lot about what the market is expecting. But the dollar move is important because bonds were reacted to general risk off sentiment where as the dollar was rallying throughout. Its also partly a safe haven. That shows she was being pretty hawkish. Interesting as well just quickly because of Commodity Prices she mentioned them and used that as a positive. She was saying oil prices will help the consumer. Clearly on the flip side canada doesnt think that. Moving on chinese stocks pairing session losses with the tech heavy index up 1 and shanghai comp up a third of 1 . Meanwhile the Asian Development bank cutting its full year growth for 2015 and 2016 citing slower than expected growth for other countries else is the domestic economy. Sri is in singapore, sri. Firmer in a word. So a bit more appetite for risk because the greek vote passed through parliament. We know. You have been talking about that. That was good news and a step in the right direction. Were watching the dollar against a lot of asian currencies. We did see dollar yen stronger. Three week closing high for the nikkei 225. We continue to see deleveraging in the china market although we were firmer at the close by about 18. 5 points. So we can say at this point in time at this stage in the narrative of the deleveraging that the authorities in beijing seem to have put a flaw in the market. The big question is for how long given the fact that theres still some 1 trillion of margin debt still in the market. A lot of that in the grey market as well. So bear that in mind. Broadly positive on the back of the external leads that we got. Mainly from your neck of the woods in europe with the Greek Parliament passing that vote approving the bailout measures and the austerity measures as well though i think youd agree with me were not out of the woods in terms of the greece risk by any stretch of the imagination. Back to you. Thank you for that. Cnbc played host to the delivering alpha Investor Conference yesterday with greece, oil and politics dominating those conversations. However it was the volatile tiny stock market that appeared to be the biggest concern for a number of participants. Take a listen. I think china is a bigger global threat by far. Must understand whats happening in china if you are going to be a Global Investor today. It is irresponsible not to understand whats happening given the impacts on global gdp. The china situation is up and down. You cant trust the chinese numbers. Thats a good sense of how much the economy has slowed down but thats a much greater impact on the region than us. You look at the chinese Financial System and shadow banking and the amount of leverage and how desperately they worked to get their stock market up. It looks worse to me. Right. Than 2007 in the united states. Much worse. Those participants, theyre all right in pointing out chinas big risk to global gdp growth but they failed to point out that Foreign Ownership of chinese stocks is only 2 . Of the ashare market. Of the ashare market so contagion should be limited and because of that slump in the asian markets over the last couple of weeks gdp wont be hit by that much. We wont know that until the end of the month or later this year obviously but expectations are for only a very small dip in gdp. No, thats a fair point. As we said for sometime the a share market and how its performing is separate to the economy. Personally i do agree with the sentiment bill ackman was putting across that the economy itself is also a massive concern. When we think of the fundamental arguments everyone has a view on china. Its just which side you put the weight on. I think the fact that we have seen more of these extraordinary measures. Focus toward the stock market and economy and then lacking to have the traction they used to have that starts to be okay are we now going to get that punch . They have papered over the cracks and managed it and all the china bears out there have foreseen a crack and it hasnt come yet and the fact that theyre easing so strongly. That has to be worrying in terms of the timing. I totally agree with you. Anyways, still to come on the show, the toshiba accounting scandal continues to snowball. We cross live to tokyo for the latest after this short break. Flames of fury in athens as the countrys lawmakers volt for the bailout but a grexit may be better while mario draghi prepares for questions on how the ecb will support the nations banks. Janet yellen reiterates that the fed is preparing for lift off this year. No matter what happens overseas. Decision on our part to raise rates will say no the economy doesnt stink. Were close to where we want to be. C

© 2025 Vimarsana