The greece story would play out. We did see a significant head line in the index in the month of june coming in at 1. 074. Coming in at 1. 08 against expectation. Were looking at highs of 1. 11 against the u. S. Dollar. Lets get reaction from bill oneal from ubs Wealth Management. From the headline number bill this number looks pretty good . Yeah i think its provide something reassurance that a multidollar recovery is still under way in europe. I think the weakness of the euro posed the greek settlement that played a role here. Clearly that to be reflected in green coming through the market for the midyear as well. But i think its important that the market was to have some nasty surprises after some pmi number, purchase managing numbers, of course that did disappoint. We should point out that the ifo has said their june expectations has been revised up to 0. 121. Its also a twoweek i after the ifo. I guess the question is what does it mean for the exporters out there who have been benefitting from the weaker currency this year . Well i think its clearly important for the market. From the point of view the earnings story. The analysts are looking for evidence of organic growth. But this is important in sense of a balanced recovery against europe. You one that incorporates both the core and the periphery. And thats what weve been seeing. Its not a spectacular recovery in terms of pace but its steady and reassuring. Just when we thought the fundamentals would be driving prices. Once again, china guiding the discussion would you agree . Yes, especially china, having an impact youre seeing the influence of that in world trade as well. What weve been seeing recently is the Services Sector visavis, the manufacturing sector, doing relatively better. Thank you for that. Bill stick with us i want to get your thoughts whats happening in asia. Because heavy losses in chinas air share with the shanghai composite boasting its biggest drop since 2007. Energy stocks among the worst performing with China Oilfield Services off 10 . More live in singapore with the latest. Sharia whats the big catalyst on the downside . Well there seem to be two factor seema. One is theres a sector that seems to be suggesting that beijing is starting to step away from the market in terms of its support. And the backstop that we saw at the height of the volatility, remember in july over the course of july really especially and into june as well. So theres a asense that the government is trying to test the waters here. 4,150 was being touted as an unofficial bailout target. At that point, it seems that the government we crossed it by the way, last week in intergovernment trading. At that time trying to test the markets recovery from the lows are selfsustaining and clearly it was premature to do so. They got a hint that the government was starting to step away and we saw cataclysmic declines. And theres evidence that the economy is falling with the profitability numbers for the month of june. Contraction 0. 3 . So this reverses the expansion that we saw in the prior two months leading up to june so concerns still lingering about the state of the broader economy. Now, we really have to wait and see whether this is a continuation of the volatility. Whether there say second phase of the selling. So the course of this week is really going to be quite important. So that will be testing the markets confidence. Is this going to be the opportunity for some of the more some of the investors with a stronger appetite to get back into the market to buy some of the large caps that have been beaten down . Or is this a case once again catching a falling mark . Very quickly, the index heavyweight stock got beaten up china unicom bank of communications. The worst day for shanghai. Thank you very much. Lets get ba back to bill oneal the ubs wealth investment. How much is china a factor . Well clearly its the market and the economy. Our sense is the connection with the market with the broader limited. Youre talking about participation is 15 of households in the equity market. Its not a big issue in terms funding with corporate. Households have got Something Like 20 trillion in terms of savings. Theyre huge opposites. I think it is important, in tellers, i suppose in the manner of financing and the whole move to reform and china regulation. It really is a pothole in that story. I think, clearly from the point of view the market the concerns would be other markets whether there is liquidity again would be used as hedges if there were to be portions of trading such as in the markets recently. One question from twitter as well as over email does it get worse before it gets better when looking at the Chinese Markets . Thats a really different call. I think the backdrop in terms of the economy, i think were seeing signs of stability, improvement in the story, the infrastructure spending, some signs show its beginning to stabilize but i think you cant say its over yet. Earnings in focus today as well 3shgs Second Quarter net profit at ubs jumping 53 beating analysts expectations this as the swiss banks Wealth ManagementDivision Posted its best q 2 results. Shares are lower amid the equities today. Lets get to carolin roth live in zurich. Hi carolin. Good morning, seema. I just looking at Goldman Sachs, they said this is a mixed result. They point out that the banking business was in line with expectations. Investment banking also in line with very strong equities if you listen to cnbc earlier this morning, he said are we benefitted from trading in china because thats where theyre very strong. So someone is benefitting from all that volatility were seeing in the Chinese Markets these days. And then of course another positive pointed out by Goldman Sachs is the very Strong Capital levels. 14. 122 under basel3. Seema, on the downside Goldman Sachs points out that the Private Banking margin actually fell. Its now at 82 basis points and we saw a miss in the Corporate Center but as you pointed out, numbers were released one day early. He talks about why it happened. We wanted to bring some transparency and also address some Incorrect Information that was reported yesterday in the swiss media. And since we were prepared to go at it we thought it was within the best interest of all stockholds to get the information out today. Clarify it for us that report cited an insider. Has any member of ubs staff been disciplined, or will they be disciplined as a result of this . And have you managed to confirm that information was actually leaked by an employee . There is no basis for coming to such a quick conclusion that the information there is coming from inside. As i mentioned, the media reports were incorrect, misleading and we thought it was sufficient to trigger release of results a year before. Well see who was responsible, if anybody was responsible at all. Or if even it was just a speculation. But i think we now move forward. Im very pleased with the results and we are keeping our focus on the next steps. So you will be investigate, i daresay, to try and identify any individual if that was indeed how the information came into the newspapers hands. Lets talk about the Second Quarter numbers then. You must be quite pleased with the net figure youve delivered to the market this morning. How representative of trading for the rest of the year will this increase have been . Well i say in the First Quarter we should multiply by four. I think the Second Quarter was more reflective of the seasonality. If you look at the profits in the first pat of the year were up 70 . Im confident we are entering the second part of the year with a good momentum. The seasonality in the Third Quarter is clearly higher. And if you look at the mac control environment and the geopolitical environment, its a challenging one. Unfortunately, weve been quite accurate in our forecast in the last ten quarters or so but im confident that we can deliver to our shareholders and our clients despite that. Sergio emergency roomeio ermotti speaking to us earlier. The ubs trading up 21. 29, up 1. 3 . You would expect with a solid report card like that today, shares are going to be trading higher above, in the maelstrom were seeing in the markets that said it simply cannot avoid that trend. And maybe a little bit of profit taking because yeartodate share, up a nice 25 , seema. Absolutely a bright spot. Carolin, thank you so much. Lets take a look at european equities. How are we faring . Right now, european stocks trading decisively lower. Stoxx down 1. 25 . The ifo economists say temporary relief in midjuly contributed to the brightening of mood. Youll see that were basically lower across the board, the xetra dax down 1 . The ftse off 0. 3 . Were seeing the Commodity Markets swell the selloff in asia that of course denting sentiment here on monday morning. Taking a look at bonds, if investors are selling equities they perhaps are buying bonds be the tenyear at 2. 5 . German tenyear at 0. 69 . The lowest since february. And a quick look at the tenyear at 1. 9. The dollar was mixed in the past week against commodities against currencies such as the aussie dollar and the canadian dollar. You can see the euro though, at a twoweek high against the u. S. Dollar after we got that better than expected ifo data. All right. Lets talk comphod eyemodities because it was a big week. Wti crude oil falling and breaking below 50 a barrel. Gold also in the lime light now down for the fifth straight week losing more than 3 in trading below 1,100 last week which is a key psychological level. And spot gold lets keep an eye on now up 5 bucks on the day. Bill oneil from ubs management still with us bill were looking at the german dax of 15 . French markets up about 18 . The ftse European Market up 0. 2 why is that . It sort of broadened in the uk against the performance, not simply down against the commodity, clearly energy as well. Those do account for 25 of the Earnings Base in the market. And earnings up 8 year to date in trade index. Its clearly less impressive because of the dollar but the euro is having an impact as well. The relevant of it is an outstanding case of valuation, the weakness in earnings has affected the weakness in the market. The npc meeting last week suggests that policymakers are becoming increasingly worried and how that could have a negative impact on gdp. Do you think that will play out this week . Well i think its an influence. Its not the only thing. The feeling at the moment its supporting, its supporting real earnings. And therefore supporting consumption. The other part of the story is is that for now, the banks seem to be more focused on leading indicators of inflation around wages. The wages productivity story is rather more significant rather than impact in terms of inflation. And its on stat for, bill which is what you can use as well are you ready . Three months from the polling date from the july mpc meeting, the effective rate has gone to 4 . Where does it go from here . Well its had pressure typically before the election. I suppose the election resolved in the way the market had had anticipated a great deal. But the big story here is the consistency, the recovery. After having a bit of a wobble this week from the uk likely to see 0. 7 in the quarter. And the question is if the boe raises rates before the fed . Were expecting it to move in september, the mpc to move in november. Two moves this year. Lastly what are you expect for the fed policy . I think this is very interesting, theres no forecast, in terms of theres no press conference. But the language will be looking for any hint theres an imminent rate hike on the way. This is the last big statement before the possibility of a september rate hike. Of course a big week. Were not only watching the volatility in china, but uk numbers. Its a busy week. Add to that earnings which, of course, is keeping things interest for us bill oneal head of ubs office. Asia markets walllow in the red. See what looms for a central bank meeting. Thats after this break. More and more, data is visual. In fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year. And a radiologist might view a thousand images to find one tiny abnormality in shape, contrast or movement. Because its so challenging a Research Project is teaching ibm watson to see. In the future, it could help clinicians spot key patterns quickly and precisely. Ibm watson is working to make healthcare smarter every day. Need to hire fast . Go to ziprecruiter. Com and post your job to over one hundred of the webs leading job boards with a single click. Then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. And now you can use zip recruiter for free. Go to ziprecruiter. Com. Welcome back. Lets give you a rundown of what to watch this week. Today, well get durable goods number. And earnings from nor fok southern and twitter and facebook earnings will steal a spotlight later in the week. All eyes on the fed wednesday after it releases a statement after a twoday meeting with investors looking for some clues on the timing of a rate hike. One of them could be more anticipated than that is the release of Second Quarter gdp on thursday. Economists are predicting a 2. 7 rise after a contraction in last quarter. The data will also include annual revisions going back to 2012. A quick look at european. Policymakers saying restructuring debt and also saying prepare for unprecedented financial solidarity towards greece. Theres statements coming in from ecbs benoit courier. Theyre looking at what it will look like this week when it comes out at a that. Do you think that negotiations will go well this week . I think it will be tough, i think it will be tough to meet the deadline which seems to be the key talk at the moment. And to sign off on a medicalmorandum of understanding will be difficult. With the action with the set of reforms particularly with the implementation to be basically demanded of the greek parliament. Three things to remember three parts, the budget targets, the process of the reform commitment and then the debt relief. Those three elements in october are going to be keys. Clearly a huge area for dissension. There are some who say this is not enough. Including Christine Lagarde saying the bailout wont be enough to help greeces economy . Well, we dont because this seems to be again, just a moving target. What we can see theres going to be large sums of money required in terms of the banking organization. It may be that the targets are adjusted. But its really people talk about the direction of travel. Its about things like commitment of the government in athens to implement and to own the program. And were steering considerably away from that. You think its important to see debt relief measures versus maturity sanctions . Well i think its maturity sanctions. A quick word on german stocks right now, the xetra dax down 1 superiors. This after a 4 move to the downjied lastdown downside last week. Would you buy on the dip here . Yeah the favored market is germany. The valuations are appealing. And we think the economy is going strong. And in general, 13 , 14 , 10 extra. But the stronger euro perhaps, makes the german exporters less attractive . Its a stabilizer in germany. The global story, even including the picture on the emerging markets beginning to show little sign of strength as they recover in the second half of the year. And thats important. Its the final demand story in these economies not just the causation. Betting on the second half. I cant tell you how many investors say that. Bill oneal head of ubs at Wealth Management. Moving on to politics, despite a flurry of controversial comments business mogul donald trump continues to sit on top. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton holds a Comfortable Lead in the mail. Nbcs Kristen Welker has the latest from iowa. Theres a movement going on. And its a very strong movement. Reporter donald trump known for his brash style and controversial comments is surging according to the latest nbc poll. He packs ace 7 lead own jeb bush. In i, was hes just two points behind scott walker but 44 of iowas Republican Voters view him unfavorably. That number jumps to 53 in New Hampshire. I believe in what were doing and what we have to do. Reporter and today, democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton again tried to turn the page away from her emails and back to policies. We need to have a democratic president in the white house. Reporter but on saturday she was forced to defend the use of a private email account when she was secretary of state. Secretary clinton, doesnt the fact that were having this debate underscore the fundamental problem with using a private email server while you were secretary of state . Not at all. No, no this would be the same debate if it were the vast majority of everything i sent and received was already on the state department system. The Unclassified State Department system. Reporter the new marist poll showing the flap could be taking a poll topping bernie points by 13 in New Hampshire 20 of iowas democrat voters view her unfavorably. And that number gets even higher in New Hampshire, 23 . To what extent do you think that would hurt secretary clinton in the general election . I think republicans, it would hurt her a lot. I dont see it hurting her a lot. Reporter trump set his sights squarely on his republican challengers. Im thinking about a man who is in favor on common core a man who is weak on legislation. Jeb bush. A guy like walker who frankly in state is having tremendous reporter meanwhile, clinton ignored a chance to make a swipe at him. Do you want to comment on donald trump . He will hold talks before addressing the African Union tuesday. He told the presid