Fiveday losing streak for stocks in some six months. Worries about chinas market meltdown and earnings here at home unsettling investors. Josh, is that really whats at play and what has more weight on the psyche of investors, or china . I think the china thing is really weighing on the psyche of investors but its important to keep in mind whats happening in china is really happening against the backdrop of a weakening picture for the market and the reason why thats important to people outside of just a handful of technical analysts is that people actually own stocks and when they look at their portfolio every week, they see less and less of them green, more and more of them red. You see this in decline, highs minus lows, up volume versus down volumes, the percentage of stocks above their 200day moving average. That number continues to plummet each week. People feel less and less good about the advance. And now you have this eightmonth consolidation period where stocks essentially have gone nowhere but people on the inside of their portfolio have less and less to smile about. So the china thing is important, but when you look at the amount of sectors and individual securities that are either flat or now losing people money, and that continues to grow, youve got a bigger and bigger danger of an actual correction for the overall benchmark indices which are now being held up by my count nine or ten stocks. So, joe, china says theyre going to continue to buy stocks and support the market over there. You make some big changes in your portfolio. Youre back down to holding one stock again. Whats going on . What does that say about your world view of where we are . My world view of where we are is consistent with what josh is talking about. What pete and jon have talked about. Stocks have gone nowhere. Lets look fundamentally in terms of earnings for the s p 500. Youve got Profit Margins that have contracted 60 to 75 basis points. Its a very difficult environment. What am i doing personally . Getting myself back in the game the first half of the year. Life takes you in a different direction. My attention was not fully on the markets, back into it now im trying to trade around positions after the greece resolution you could call it being all in. I came up with five stocks that i felt had positive momentum. Friday at some point i took them off. Why sell facebook, though, into earnings or ahead of earnings . We have trades we could do in the portfolio. I am going to be very active. Thats the only way by getting in and out of the market. If youre sitting there and buying and holding i think youll be frustrated. Thats what im doing. If you look at where i got out on friday, its worked out fine. The nasdaq composite less than 2 off of its closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial average is about 5 or thereabouts. Do you think the market is telling us that markets are about to get worse or are we going to go the other way . When you look at volatility, its shot up. Its up through the 200 moving day average. We were below and now here we are and weve packed up well above those. Weve had such great numbers. Now were getting weaker and getting much more energy focused. Some of the tech companies, some of the chip names that have been under huge pressure. So to answer your question, scott, you have to be in the right place at the right time. Thats what the market has been offering us. I think you have to trim into some of the gains and now that youve seen the pullbacks again, now its time to get the Shopping List back out. Whats taking place is going to impact our stock market here. I dont think so. If you look at the companies that reported that did well, the consumer discretion, starbucks, gm, they all had great quarters and china was part of it. I do think the whole macro, whats going on in china, is that a bellwether because commodities are coming down, thats whats scaring people for Global Growth and i think thats what you have to watch for. Anyone that misses numbers in growth will get hurt. I think its important were dismissing quickly whats going on right now in the chinese stock market. Number one, when the government pulls back on the subsidies of them being the hedge fund, so to speak, who is going to have the confidence to buy the Chinese Market itself . Im suspicious that anyone could and then it does impact us here because when you look at the resource trade, when you look at energy, you cant just have it one way. On the way up we talked about oil accelerating for multiple years. Why . Chinese demand. Agriculture, steel. The upset in the chinese stock market is going to have a direct filter into the chinese economy and that question is open. I disagree with that premise. The Real Estate Market is much more important than the stock market. We cant make the assumption that the chinese have the same kind of composition of savings that we have here in america. The ashares market, that being less than 20 , the median households net worth in china is a fraction of what were doing here in terms of 401 k s. Thats number one. Number two, lets not act like a sevenmonth rally in chinese stocks produced, its been headed down the entire time regardless of what you think the trickle down effects might have been. And realistically its still up on the year. Chinese stock market doing better than the s p 500 year to date. Thats a news flash for you. So lets not act like theres some tremendous knock on effect. The real estate picture is more important there. It will be for the foreseeable future. Im not suggesting the real estate picture is great there but its not quite the same bubble bursting that weve seen in the shenzhen and the shanghai composite. Its not like our market ripped when china totally. Another voice here, the strategist at wells fargo, brian, welcome. Joining us on the phone. We had an issue with your camera shot. Were grateful you joined us nonetheless. It probably worked out better this way. I have a face for radio. Your target of 2300 for the s p sounds aggressive considering where we are today. Do you stick with it and why . I dont think the Chinese Market will have an adverse effect, maybe short term. Its really that sentiment thing that we have to focus on. Durable goods that allowed me to upgrade my estimate for Third Quarter from 27 to 28 so my revisions are going up. Its really that sentiment question. When we get through this shortterm fiasco with china and also uncertainty about what is the fed going to say, when we get through that, i think we could see almost a burst to the upside for the s p 500. Where i really like it is on the tech heavy nasdaq. Growth estimates for the long term are still a little bit too low for a lot of the business to business type names within the nasdaq. Brian, its josh brown. If you think tech is the way to play, the u. S. Market coming back, will it not matter that a lot of the end markets for the i goest u. S. Tech companies are overseas and are not having the same kind of positive uptrend in things like employment or Business Confidence or Consumer Confidence or look past that and focus on u. S. End markets only . I think you can look at markets. Its on a name by name basis. Broadly speaking 60 of revenue coming from outside of the u. S. , primarily in europe. Its a question whether or not europe can grow faster than what peoples expectations are. According to the imf we only have 1. 5 gdp growth estimated for 2016 and they are at 2 , i have no problem having that exposure. What kind of upset does the marks seek . I think that right now the longer end of the yield curve in the u. S. Isnt perfectly positioned for a fed rate hike. I would rather see the tenyear treasury closer to 2. 75 so we could see a movement maybe an abrupt movement going to the 30 year. If you look at the range of the yield going back to slightly before, the two year and the five year are close to the middle and the upper part of that range. Then its to the lower end of the range. The long end moves up. I like high yield. Brian, youre not concerned for materials for mining, for resources, for energy and the significant waiting that they have on the high yield given the acceleration and the selloff were seeing currently . I think that they actually went through the correction already when you had oil going down from over 100 a barrel we did have a bounce off of 44. I think we already had the correction so people have low expectations. But thats only about 16 , i think, of some of the bigger indices that is constructed differently. So im not that worried about it since you can be selective about maybe shying away from some of the energy names if youre not comfortable with that commodity exposure. You think exxon is a name to play here. Maybe a bit after contrarian. I dont know. A lot of your picks or views sound contrarian. Recommending high yield. Thinking we have 250 points left in the s p over the next five months. Maybe it is a little contrarian but i prefer the term realistic but thats only because thats the way i look at the world. I dont think well see earnings roll over. I dont think the fed is going to hike rates too quickly and as a result i see really for longer term investors, im talking about 18 months out. I think that these are actually very good entry points. Brian, thanks for coming on today. Well talk to you soon and hopefully well see you in person. Thank you. What do you think about the view . Too optimistic . He says hes being realistic. I think hes being too optimistic too quickly. I think we have too many head winds still for the next probably six months to a year. Still have foreign currency. You still have issues overseas in terms of growth and then right here in terms of rate hikes. We do one, we do two. The market is not going to take it too lightly especially in areas that are rate sensitive. Brian talked 18 months. Thats very important for folks. When you talk about a name like exxon mobile, youre looking at Oil Prices Going down. Joe is talking about the commodities getting beaten up. I totally agree. I think theyre death right now. The pressure to the down side is amazing. Exxon hitting another low. I like the fundamental story behind exxon. They can return cash to shareholders and all the rest of that. As oil prices drop, it seems to me thats another one of these knifes i think youd want to wait and wait for the opportunity to see oil turn around and then you can use that longterm opportunity. And now you have to think about, okay, the dollar making a rebound, right, the euro is up today. I mean, we tend to forget sometimes a lot of the good information that were provided. And jeff curry gave us the road map many, many months ago and he said his biggest concern was a roll back over to these levels were at now. I think 43 and change is the low for the year for oil. I think on our show this wednesday, right . Jeff curry is on this wednesday. Well hear from him. Perfect timing because we may be very close to 43. Again, those are levels that are problematic in the highyield market for a lot of these companies. Coming up, health care heats one a mega merger today. Big pharma earnings on deck. Legendary Health Care Investor with his take on where the next deal will be and how hes putting 15 billion to work right now. Plus, our call of the day, barron says one old tech giant could rally 50 over the next few years. Will tell you the stock and it will tell you the stock and if our experts are equally as bullish next. Opinions. Theres no shortage in this world. Who do you trust . Whose analysis is accurate . How do you make sense of it all . A simple, unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts. Is that too much to ask . Nope. Equity summary score, powered by starmine, will help you execute your ideas with speed and conviction. And its only on fidelity. Com. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. I can offer you no interest sittifor 24 months. Oday thanks to the tools and help at experian. Com, i know i have an 812 fico score, so i definitely qualify. So what else can you give me . Same day delivery. The ottoman . Thank you. Fico scores are used in 90 of credit decisions. So get your credit swagger on. Go to experian. Com, become a member of experian credit tracker, and take charge of your score. Were back and its time for our trader blitz. First up is ubs. Better than expected profits. Gains in Wealth Management. Pete, what do you think . When you look to europe, Wealth Management again carrying this thing. The stock, the reason its not performing today, very much like morgan stanley, ran into these numbers off rest of the earnings. Thats why its relatively flat today. Any pullback, i like the opportunity here and deutsche bank. Throw up dks. Cowen says Dicks Sporting Goods is the best athlete. Chelsea collective now moving to womens apparel. I think its a great move, a strong move. This is a name unchanged on the year. Pulling back to right below 50. Golf being weak. Apparel is the story. Men and now women. Qualcomm upgrades. This stock has been in the doghouse. Definitely look at the cost structure, what google as done and then break up the company and really acquire the top line. Josh, best buy. Going to have the apple watch in august. Thats great. Still going to 20. No real support until then. I hope they sell a lot of watches. I dont have an issue with the company itself. The stock is uninvestable, down 7 this year. The Consumer Discretionary sector is up. You should listen. Anyone want to take the other side. Pete, 20 . Best buy, there are some struggles out there. And this watch, ive been i was one of the first out there saying anticipation of this watch. All right, coming up. Proofing your portfolio. Weve got your game plan for how to protect yourself from all of that volatility plus take your position, twitter versus facebook. The desk setting up for social media earnings and theyre all liking the same stock. Im sure we can guess which one as well. We want you to weigh in. Which would you rather own, facebook or twitter . Tweet us at Halftime Report with your answer. But what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. Call our specialists today to get up and running. 40 of the streetlights in detroit, at one point, did not work. You had some blocks and you had major thoroughfares and corridors that were just totally pitch black. Those things had to change. We wanted to restore our lighting system in the city. You can have the greatest dreams in the world, but unless you can finance those dreams, it doesnt happen. At the time that the bankruptcy filing was done, the Public Lighting Authority had a hard time of finding a bank. Citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. Citi had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. Its a brighter day in detroit. People can see better when theyre out doing their tasks, young people are moving back in town, the kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. And folks are making investments and the community is moving forward. 40 of the lights were out, but theyre not out for long. Theyre coming back. How about this call from barrons, they say a 50 move as the Company Transitions to a Cloudbased Software company. Its our call of the day. Sarat, is it a good call or not . I like the call. I dont know if youre going to get 70 but microsoft has turned the corner. Steve balmer did a couple of dumb things. Hes now focused. I agree. Hes doing everything right. Weve talked about this when they were out there looking for the ceo search. Hes been the best choice. This transition is going much better than most of the other tech giants out there that are still trying. I look right towards intel. Loved it for a long time. Their transition away from the pc reliance forward has been difficult when you look at the way microsofts maneuvered much better and certainly focus from the cloud area. That would mean that this transitions even faster than i would expect. You know, one of the biggest variables is what is the overall economy and stock market do, number one, and then the other thing thats totally unknowable is how competitive do they get on cloud price and services pricing, frankly, in the next couple of years. We know what amazon is willing to do to maintain market share and take from others pretty much anything and we know that google has made this a priority area, so its really hard to say if 70 is realistic. If that business becomes like the mobile business, then there might be room for more than two players, so i think its a little bit early to be banking on a 50 move on msft. You wouldnt expect it to be out of the question. I thought wed get 50. I think the question you have to ask yourself is over the next three years, do you think microsoft can outperform the s p and the answer to that is yes. Do you own the stock . We own the stock. I agree with you. Its going to beat the s p over the next three years. Theres nothing new here that barrons said. We are all focused on cloud. That was the key to the stock. It was up 49 and people take that. Is cloud going to be as profitable a business as microsofts prior incarnation, selling office and selling windows . Those were huge monopoly businesses and youre right, there is this competition coming. I do think what microsoft is not doing is getting into businesses they have no business being in. Throwing money at things. What he does, he gets out of a couple of other businesses, gaming, things like that, you have a highly focused Software Company that gets a higher multiple. Youll get a higher multiple, great cash flow and a great dividend. The reason i dont think, joe, why it didnt get to 50 is if the revenues beat the previous year, that would have actually been more impressive. The problem is were beating on earnings, missing on revenues. If that number could have been more impressive, that i think would have sent the stock higher. Thats what this earnings season is all about. Who can beat that. Most arent. Most are boating on the earnings. Coming up, big buyouts, big earnings in the Health Care Sector this week, top fund manager sam isley who has allergan shares his new plays. Protecting against chinas down fall. Our experts tell you ho